I'm still convinced that many in the financial community deserve far harsher treatment than they've so far received - if they didn't know what would happen, they should have.
But I've been casting about for some deeper structural reason - what allowed financiers to kid themselves that they were acting reasonably, or at least assure themselves that they had followed official guidelines and were "covered"?
So I looked for something relating to the regulation of fractional reserves, and came across references to the Basel Accords (I and II). These are an attempt to "harmonise" central banking policies in developed nations, and perhaps can serve as an object lesson (especially for EU enthusiasts) about international legislation.
Here is the conclusion of an analysis of the two Accords (highlights mine):
One very important fact to assess is the achievements and limitations of each Basel Accord. The first Basel Accord, Basel I, was a groundbreaking accord in its time, and did much to promote regulatory harmony and the growth of international banking across the borders of the G-10 and the world alike. On the other hand, its limited scope and rather general language gives banks excessive leeway in their interpretation of its rules, and, in the end, allows financial institutions to take improper risks and hold unduly low capital reserves.
Basel II, on the other hand, seeks to extend the breadth and precision of Basel I, bringing in factors such as market and operational risk, market-based discipline and surveillance, and regulatory mandates. On the other hand, in the words of Evan Hawke, the U.S. Comptroller of the Currency under George W. Bush, Basel II is “complex beyond reason” (Jones, 37), extending to nearly four hundred pages without indices, and, in total, encompassing nearly one thousand pages of regulation.
The author's concern is that the rules can permit the risk of assets in emerging markets to be understated, and as it turns out the Trojan horse came in through another gate; but in complexity lies opportunity, and in rule-following lies the illusion that personal responsibility is thereby written off.
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Monday, December 01, 2008
The eyes, look at the eyes
I referred recently to some BNP supporters as "scrubbed-up thugs"; sadly, that also is the impression given by some New Labour apparatchiks.Is it true that, like Cordelia and the Fool, Ed Balls and Nick Griffin have never been seen together?
"When the going was good"
Marc Faber, on Bloomberg: "US stocks will rally further he maintains, at least for a short while. In January to March next year you must get out as the economy will implode."
And he's a gold bug again - and says hold it outside the US, as many have long recommended.
And he's a gold bug again - and says hold it outside the US, as many have long recommended.
Cruising for a losing
Mish's graph suggests houses could lose another 40% or so over the next 7 years.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Tony Murdoch, Rupert Blair
Reading Michael Wolff's article in the Spectator today, I was struck by the uncanny resemblance of his subject to another. Here, with only a few substitutions, cuts and emendations, is my version.
Blair’s big secret is that he doesn’t have one
Wednesday, 26th November 2008
Sackerson reveals how he secured Tony Blair’s co-operation for his biography and discovered that this political titan has no interest in posterity. He is, at heart, a political operator
There is, on the one hand, the unparalleled national dominance in politics that Tony Blair and his New Labour have achieved. And yet, on the other, there’s an almost endearing attention-deficit lack of organisation and heedlessness that I witnessed in many years of chatting with Blair and his ministers.
The fact that I was talking so often and so openly with Blair was as good an example as any of the absence of planning and strategy that backs up one of the country’s greatest control freaks. Indeed, throughout the company, people kept saying to me (and among themselves): has he lost his mind, spilling the beans? Why is he doing this? What is he thinking?
The answer involves, I believe, New Labour’s essential political advantage and fundamental personality trait: Blair and Labour act without thinking very much. Or the only sustained thinking that goes on is about what he might be thinking. And that’s extremely hard because the man, contravening all rules of modern analytic politics, acts almost entirely on impulse — his method is all based on instinct, urge, gossip (i.e. a more or less random collection of things he’s been told), and the impelling force of immediate and casual circumstance. It’s serious ADD.
It was during his takeover in the 1990s of the Labour Party — a set of brilliantly executed strategic moves that occurred mostly without any kind of analysis about why he might be changing it and what he would be getting after he took charge — that Blair and I began our interviews. I had gone to the publisher of my last book and argued that there might be a chance Blair would agree to a long exclusive interview — the kind which, out of impatience or defensiveness, he had never granted. I sensed he might be open to the attention — that he was proud of winning the Labour Party.
Blair found himself talking to me with no plan or agreement or understanding or even time constraints. For the first several years of our interviews, he was clearly wondering how it was that I had got there. Only the fact that he is a very polite man, and conflict averse — at least in a one-to-one sense — kept him, I often felt, from tossing me out on my ear.
The vastness of an organisation like New Labour, dominating nearly every political platform in the country, makes it perceptually almost impossible not to believe that there is a vision here, a method and a far-reaching intelligence (pernicious or otherwise).
This was what I obviously tried to probe, sitting with Blair for nine months. What’s going on in there? What does he know?
To be with Blair, to view him, to get inside his head, and to understand how he does political, you have to take away all technology — that is, all the web-searches, all the data, all the correspondence, all the communications resources, that ministers everywhere rely on. Blair, at 55, can’t use a computer, doesn’t get email, can’t get his cell phone to work properly, can’t even imagine changing the variables on a spread sheet. (The fact that New Labour often bills itself as a technologically farsighted, aggressive and clever party is amusing to everyone there.) During the campaign to take over New Labour, Blair’s spies and surrogates would email Blair’s 54-year-old wife, Cherie, and she’d read to him from her mobile phone. Indeed, while many people at New Labour were trying to talk about the cross-platform synergies at New Labour and the future of electronic voting, Blair was only ever talking about the Party.
Psychologically, he is far from modern too. He can’t question his own motivations (a curious problem for a biographer). He truly doesn’t believe in interpretation. His face draws back, and he scowls in a remarkably dismissive way if you try to suggest that there might be a deeper pattern to his actions — that there might be meaning beyond living to fight another day. Accordingly, he has surrounded himself with a cadre of unanalysed people who believe it’s best to act before thinking too much. Curiously, his children are reasonably nuanced thinkers, which is perhaps one reason he thinks they are the most brilliant people in the country.
He has no historic interest — even in himself. This sets him at odds from most men of accomplishment, who generally cherish all their achievements. Blair hardly remembers his. The past has receded. He cuts himself off from it. In conversation, he often loses or transposes decades. This is only partly age. More to the point, he obviously has no use for memory. That’s a distraction. He is not demoralised by defeats. He’s not aggrandised by victories. When you interview him, you can’t, profitably, ask about what has occurred, you can only engage with him if you talk about what’s going on now. What’s on your mind this morning, Mr B? Who are you feeling competitive with today? What fly is buzzing near your face?
He is, and runs his career like, an ambitious man. He’s a dealmaker. No more, no less. No better, no worse. What he values is the ability and inclination to make split-second decisions. He’s rather proud when that ability is not slowed by too much information or explanation. He is most motivated by the last interesting thing someone told him — whether it is true is not as important as how it will read. Sitting with Blair for so many years, I’d regularly see the odd bits of information come in (my stock obviously went up when I offered him a tidbit), and be directed to a political researcher, or become part of his world-view or some instant political decision-making process. (At a cocktail party, he meets someone from Afghanistan, who suddenly informs his view of that conflict; at another party he meets someone who knows a policeman on Long Island, and that colours his view about a lecture tour in New York) He has no interest in understanding himself, because he sees himself as an everyman. He’s Mr Basic, Mr Uncomplicated; he has no airs, no fancy aspirations. He can trust his own gut. And why should he remember the past, he has to be in tomorrow’s papers? And once again beat the competition.
I have sometimes had the feeling, over the past years of talking to Blair and New Labour ministers, that his people are humouring him. That he is not so much, in Alistair Campbell’s formulation, the Sun God, who people cannot question, but instead a sort of long-running joke in which everybody at New Labour — so many of them career employees — is complicit. The joke is that this greatest of modern political men, the architect of the synergised, cross-platform, integrated, national political party, has no vision, no method, no strategy. Nor, likewise, does this man, perhaps the individual with the single most powerful political voice of our time, have any politics — save for what makes for good newspaper copy or puts money in his own pocket. Rather it’s all made up — what he buys, how he spends, what he believes, who he supports — on the fly.
In my interviews, Blair, even though a professional in the political world, was guileless — or ultimately unconcerned. It was a book, for one thing, and, as his advisers suggested to me, he might never have read one. What’s more, to think about how he might be portrayed would be to have an idea of his own self — to have to dwell on things he is incapable of or vastly uninterested in dwelling on. And yet he did it — blabbered away for years. With hardly a thought he exposed himself, his family and all his ministers to a biographer who one day happened to walk into his office. Even prospective immortality is something, at New Labour, which you just throw against the wall and see if it sticks.
Blair’s big secret is that he doesn’t have one
Wednesday, 26th November 2008
Sackerson reveals how he secured Tony Blair’s co-operation for his biography and discovered that this political titan has no interest in posterity. He is, at heart, a political operator
There is, on the one hand, the unparalleled national dominance in politics that Tony Blair and his New Labour have achieved. And yet, on the other, there’s an almost endearing attention-deficit lack of organisation and heedlessness that I witnessed in many years of chatting with Blair and his ministers.
The fact that I was talking so often and so openly with Blair was as good an example as any of the absence of planning and strategy that backs up one of the country’s greatest control freaks. Indeed, throughout the company, people kept saying to me (and among themselves): has he lost his mind, spilling the beans? Why is he doing this? What is he thinking?
The answer involves, I believe, New Labour’s essential political advantage and fundamental personality trait: Blair and Labour act without thinking very much. Or the only sustained thinking that goes on is about what he might be thinking. And that’s extremely hard because the man, contravening all rules of modern analytic politics, acts almost entirely on impulse — his method is all based on instinct, urge, gossip (i.e. a more or less random collection of things he’s been told), and the impelling force of immediate and casual circumstance. It’s serious ADD.
It was during his takeover in the 1990s of the Labour Party — a set of brilliantly executed strategic moves that occurred mostly without any kind of analysis about why he might be changing it and what he would be getting after he took charge — that Blair and I began our interviews. I had gone to the publisher of my last book and argued that there might be a chance Blair would agree to a long exclusive interview — the kind which, out of impatience or defensiveness, he had never granted. I sensed he might be open to the attention — that he was proud of winning the Labour Party.
Blair found himself talking to me with no plan or agreement or understanding or even time constraints. For the first several years of our interviews, he was clearly wondering how it was that I had got there. Only the fact that he is a very polite man, and conflict averse — at least in a one-to-one sense — kept him, I often felt, from tossing me out on my ear.
The vastness of an organisation like New Labour, dominating nearly every political platform in the country, makes it perceptually almost impossible not to believe that there is a vision here, a method and a far-reaching intelligence (pernicious or otherwise).
This was what I obviously tried to probe, sitting with Blair for nine months. What’s going on in there? What does he know?
To be with Blair, to view him, to get inside his head, and to understand how he does political, you have to take away all technology — that is, all the web-searches, all the data, all the correspondence, all the communications resources, that ministers everywhere rely on. Blair, at 55, can’t use a computer, doesn’t get email, can’t get his cell phone to work properly, can’t even imagine changing the variables on a spread sheet. (The fact that New Labour often bills itself as a technologically farsighted, aggressive and clever party is amusing to everyone there.) During the campaign to take over New Labour, Blair’s spies and surrogates would email Blair’s 54-year-old wife, Cherie, and she’d read to him from her mobile phone. Indeed, while many people at New Labour were trying to talk about the cross-platform synergies at New Labour and the future of electronic voting, Blair was only ever talking about the Party.
Psychologically, he is far from modern too. He can’t question his own motivations (a curious problem for a biographer). He truly doesn’t believe in interpretation. His face draws back, and he scowls in a remarkably dismissive way if you try to suggest that there might be a deeper pattern to his actions — that there might be meaning beyond living to fight another day. Accordingly, he has surrounded himself with a cadre of unanalysed people who believe it’s best to act before thinking too much. Curiously, his children are reasonably nuanced thinkers, which is perhaps one reason he thinks they are the most brilliant people in the country.
He has no historic interest — even in himself. This sets him at odds from most men of accomplishment, who generally cherish all their achievements. Blair hardly remembers his. The past has receded. He cuts himself off from it. In conversation, he often loses or transposes decades. This is only partly age. More to the point, he obviously has no use for memory. That’s a distraction. He is not demoralised by defeats. He’s not aggrandised by victories. When you interview him, you can’t, profitably, ask about what has occurred, you can only engage with him if you talk about what’s going on now. What’s on your mind this morning, Mr B? Who are you feeling competitive with today? What fly is buzzing near your face?
He is, and runs his career like, an ambitious man. He’s a dealmaker. No more, no less. No better, no worse. What he values is the ability and inclination to make split-second decisions. He’s rather proud when that ability is not slowed by too much information or explanation. He is most motivated by the last interesting thing someone told him — whether it is true is not as important as how it will read. Sitting with Blair for so many years, I’d regularly see the odd bits of information come in (my stock obviously went up when I offered him a tidbit), and be directed to a political researcher, or become part of his world-view or some instant political decision-making process. (At a cocktail party, he meets someone from Afghanistan, who suddenly informs his view of that conflict; at another party he meets someone who knows a policeman on Long Island, and that colours his view about a lecture tour in New York) He has no interest in understanding himself, because he sees himself as an everyman. He’s Mr Basic, Mr Uncomplicated; he has no airs, no fancy aspirations. He can trust his own gut. And why should he remember the past, he has to be in tomorrow’s papers? And once again beat the competition.
I have sometimes had the feeling, over the past years of talking to Blair and New Labour ministers, that his people are humouring him. That he is not so much, in Alistair Campbell’s formulation, the Sun God, who people cannot question, but instead a sort of long-running joke in which everybody at New Labour — so many of them career employees — is complicit. The joke is that this greatest of modern political men, the architect of the synergised, cross-platform, integrated, national political party, has no vision, no method, no strategy. Nor, likewise, does this man, perhaps the individual with the single most powerful political voice of our time, have any politics — save for what makes for good newspaper copy or puts money in his own pocket. Rather it’s all made up — what he buys, how he spends, what he believes, who he supports — on the fly.
In my interviews, Blair, even though a professional in the political world, was guileless — or ultimately unconcerned. It was a book, for one thing, and, as his advisers suggested to me, he might never have read one. What’s more, to think about how he might be portrayed would be to have an idea of his own self — to have to dwell on things he is incapable of or vastly uninterested in dwelling on. And yet he did it — blabbered away for years. With hardly a thought he exposed himself, his family and all his ministers to a biographer who one day happened to walk into his office. Even prospective immortality is something, at New Labour, which you just throw against the wall and see if it sticks.
Friday, November 28, 2008
Damian Green update
I've just heard Geoff Hoon on Radio 4's "Any Questions?" trying to defend the arrest etc. of MP Damian Green. I can only think he was chosen because he is somehow politically expendable. The transcript will be available in a few days here.
His Wikipedia entry says "His notorious skill is 'stonewalling' - deflecting difficult questions by 'playing a straight bat', or appearing to do so." Maybe so. But all it did - for me and the audience - was pretty much to damn him, and by implication the government.
His Wikipedia entry says "His notorious skill is 'stonewalling' - deflecting difficult questions by 'playing a straight bat', or appearing to do so." Maybe so. But all it did - for me and the audience - was pretty much to damn him, and by implication the government.
Default is mine
A warning from history
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" - George Santayana
I can't hope to improve on Cranmer's piece regarding Speaker Martin's betrayal of the proudest tradition of his office; I can only echo his cry of "Shame!"
UPDATE
Yet, alas, even Speaker Lenthall had his regrets:
In his will, Lenthall asked to be buried without any state and without a monument, 'acknowledging myself to be unworthy of the least outward regard in this world and unworthy of any remembrance that hath been so great a sinner'. The most he would permit was a plain stone carved with the Latin inscription Vermis sum, which means: I am a worm.
What epitaph will Speaker Martin cause to be inscribed for himself?
Handy-dandy, the pigs are the farmers
Place your political parties in the schema below:
At first, I wondered what Hatfield Girl was talking about. Now it's one of the news headlines on the morning radio, and in the papers: the Government has taken to arresting members of the Opposition, like tinpot dictators in faraway countries that it's difficult to believe really exist.
At first, I wondered what Hatfield Girl was talking about. Now it's one of the news headlines on the morning radio, and in the papers: the Government has taken to arresting members of the Opposition, like tinpot dictators in faraway countries that it's difficult to believe really exist.
Difficult to believe; that's part of the process. Honestly, I have felt since 1997 (and I am no natural Conservative voter, please believe me) that something was obscurely wrong, that we were all inside someone else's dream. It's like that feeling you get that you've forgotten something, but haven't a clue what it might be.
Before 1997, the Government was Them and we were Us: British, muddling through, ready to heave a brickbat at these clowns who pretend to rule us, but all of us bound by habit and tradition. But in Tony Blair's revolution, the Government claimed to represent all of us: it was the political wing of the British people as a whole, or some such typical Toni verbalfluff.
This is how Nazism took hold - and my mother lived through it. No need for the unions, we the national socialist State represent the worker's best interests, etc.
Fascism, Communism - it's all the same, structurally.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Economics doesn't describe the real world
Michael Panzner has unearthed a couple of good items explaining how the assumptions of classical economics are plain wrong - we are not rational - and so the results are also wrong.
And there I was, planning to use some of my Christmas holiday reading an economics primer.
And there I was, planning to use some of my Christmas holiday reading an economics primer.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
What is debt?
Here's one way to calculate it (htp: Burning Our Money): GDP less debt owed to foreigners, per capita.But there's also total debts (foreign and domestic) compared to GDP, in which case the US owes 4 times what it earns, and goodness knows exactly what the equivalent is here in the UK.
And then there's future liabilities - pensions and healthcare costs that have effectively been promised, and will have to be paid for decades to come. The US Comptroller General, David Walker, has been touring the US for two years like Cassandra of Troy, trying to alert the public about this. His latest reported estimate is that these promises are equivalent to a lump sum debt of $53 trillion, and rising annually by $2 - $3 trillion.
It's an unholy mess, on a scale so large that even approximate calculations seem almost irrelevant. However, I strongly suspect that it is a misrepresentation to say that the problem is principally American. If only the truth were made plain - but those in the best position to say, have the greatest incentive to remain silent, or to mislead us.
Monday, November 24, 2008
If the 2003 reflation hadn't happened?
What if the banks hadn't gone for broke from 2002/2003 onward?In the above graph, I show the Dow, adjusted for CPI, up to 19 November 2008, with an extra: the gold line is the same as what actually happened from the beginning of 1966 to November 1974, adjusted proportionately to the height of the boom at the end of 1999.
Interpreted and represented in this way, even the worst of the crash so far has not caught up with the mid-70s: the Dow closed last Wednesday at 7,997 where 32 years before it would have been the equivalent of 4,911. If that period of history were to repeat itself, the Dow would take another 7 years of whipsawing towards its low of 3,988 in today's terms.
So in my view, the monetary expansion of the last 6 years or so, has merely delayed progress a little. The drunkard has had a few more to put off the hangover.
What if...
Today we learn that UK Police forces have become excited about the possibilities of stun guns. No doubt once they've been issued, there'll be a race to escalate the usage, in the same way that you make gallons of ice cream or larders full of bread, once you've bought the device. Just wait for the trigger-happy traffic warden or lollipop lady.
Coincidentally, the following comes by email across the Atlantic. I've seen it before, I think, but I also think it may well be largely true.
Pocket Taser Stun Gun, a great gift for the wife. A guy who purchased his lovely wife a pocket Taser for their anniversary submitted this:
Last weekend I saw something at Larry's Pistol & Pawn Shop that sparked my interest. The occasion was our 15th anniversary and I was looking for a little something extra for my wife Julie. What I came across was a 100,000-volt, pocket/purse-sized taser. The effects of the taser were supposed to be short lived, with no long-term adverse affect on your assailant, allowing her adequate time to retreat to safety....??
WAY TOO COOL! Long story short, I bought the device and brought it home.
I loaded two AAA batteries in the darn thing and pushed the button.
Nothing!
I was disappointed . I learned, however, that if I pushed the button AND pressed it against a meta surface at the same time; I'd get the blue arc of electricity darting back and forth between the prongs. AWESOME!!! Unfortunately, I have yet to explain to Julie what that burn spot is on the face of her microwave.
Okay, so I was home alone with this new toy, thinking to myself that it couldn't be all that bad with only two triple-A batteries, right? There I sat in my recliner, my cat Gracie looking on intently (trusting little soul) while I was reading the directions and thinking that I really needed to try this thing out on a flesh & blood moving target. I must admit I thought about zapping Gracie (for a fraction of a second) and thought better of it. She is such a sweet cat. But, if I was going togive this thing to my wife to protect herself against a mugger, I did want some assurance that it would work as advertised. Am I wrong?
So, there I sat in a pair of shorts and a tank top with my reading glasses perched delicately on the bridge of my nose, directions in one hand, and taser in another. The directions said that a one-second burst would shock and disorient your assailant; a two-second burst was supposed to cause muscle spasms and a major loss of bodily control; a three-second burst would purportedly make your assailant flop on the ground like a fish out of water. Any burst longer than three seconds would be wasting the batteries.
All the while I'm looking at this little device measuring about 5' long, less than 3/4 inch in circumference; pretty cute really and (loaded with two itsy, bitsy triple-A batteries) thinking to myself, 'no possible way!'
What happened next is almost beyond description, but I'll do my best...?
I'm sitting there alone, Gracie looking on with her head cocked to one side as to say, 'don't do it dipshit,' reasoning that a one second burst from such a tiny little ole thing couldn't hurt all that bad. I decided to give myself a one second burst just for heck of it.. I touched the prongs to my naked thigh, pushed the button, and . . HOLY MOTHER OF GOD . . WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION . . . WHAT THE HELL!!!
I'm pretty sure Jessie Ventura ran in through the side door, picked me up in the recliner, then body slammed us both on the carpet, over and over and over again. I vaguely recall waking up on my side in the fetal position, with tears in my eyes, body soaking wet, both nipples on fire, testicles nowhere to be found, with my left arm tucked under my body in the oddest position, and tingling in my legs? The cat was making meowing sounds I had never heard before, clinging to a picture frame hanging above the fireplace, obviously in an attempt to avoid getting slammed by my body flopping all over the living room.
Note: If you ever feel compelled to 'mug' yourself with a taser, one note of caution: there is no such thing as a one second burst when you zap yourself! You will not lt go of that thing until it is dislodged from your hand by a violent thrashing about on the floor.. A three second burst would be considered conservative?
IT HURT LIKE HELL!!!
A minute or so later (I can't be sure, as time was a relative thing at that point), I collected my wits (what little I had left), sat up and surveyed the landscape. My bent reading glasses were on the mantel of the fireplace. The recliner was upside down and about 8 feet or so from where it originally was. My triceps, right thigh and both nipples were still twitching. My face felt like it had been shot up with Novocain, and my bottom lip weighed 88 lbs. I had no control over the drooling. Apparently I pooped on myself, but was too numb to know for sure and my sense of smell was gone. I saw a faint smoke cloud above my head which I believe came from my hair. I'm still looking for my nuts and I'm offering a significant reward for their safe return!!
P.S. My wife loved the gift, and now regularly threatens me with it! 'If you think education is difficult, try being stupid.'
Coincidentally, the following comes by email across the Atlantic. I've seen it before, I think, but I also think it may well be largely true.
Pocket Taser Stun Gun, a great gift for the wife. A guy who purchased his lovely wife a pocket Taser for their anniversary submitted this:
Last weekend I saw something at Larry's Pistol & Pawn Shop that sparked my interest. The occasion was our 15th anniversary and I was looking for a little something extra for my wife Julie. What I came across was a 100,000-volt, pocket/purse-sized taser. The effects of the taser were supposed to be short lived, with no long-term adverse affect on your assailant, allowing her adequate time to retreat to safety....??
WAY TOO COOL! Long story short, I bought the device and brought it home.
I loaded two AAA batteries in the darn thing and pushed the button.
Nothing!
I was disappointed . I learned, however, that if I pushed the button AND pressed it against a meta surface at the same time; I'd get the blue arc of electricity darting back and forth between the prongs. AWESOME!!! Unfortunately, I have yet to explain to Julie what that burn spot is on the face of her microwave.
Okay, so I was home alone with this new toy, thinking to myself that it couldn't be all that bad with only two triple-A batteries, right? There I sat in my recliner, my cat Gracie looking on intently (trusting little soul) while I was reading the directions and thinking that I really needed to try this thing out on a flesh & blood moving target. I must admit I thought about zapping Gracie (for a fraction of a second) and thought better of it. She is such a sweet cat. But, if I was going togive this thing to my wife to protect herself against a mugger, I did want some assurance that it would work as advertised. Am I wrong?
So, there I sat in a pair of shorts and a tank top with my reading glasses perched delicately on the bridge of my nose, directions in one hand, and taser in another. The directions said that a one-second burst would shock and disorient your assailant; a two-second burst was supposed to cause muscle spasms and a major loss of bodily control; a three-second burst would purportedly make your assailant flop on the ground like a fish out of water. Any burst longer than three seconds would be wasting the batteries.
All the while I'm looking at this little device measuring about 5' long, less than 3/4 inch in circumference; pretty cute really and (loaded with two itsy, bitsy triple-A batteries) thinking to myself, 'no possible way!'
What happened next is almost beyond description, but I'll do my best...?
I'm sitting there alone, Gracie looking on with her head cocked to one side as to say, 'don't do it dipshit,' reasoning that a one second burst from such a tiny little ole thing couldn't hurt all that bad. I decided to give myself a one second burst just for heck of it.. I touched the prongs to my naked thigh, pushed the button, and . . HOLY MOTHER OF GOD . . WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION . . . WHAT THE HELL!!!
I'm pretty sure Jessie Ventura ran in through the side door, picked me up in the recliner, then body slammed us both on the carpet, over and over and over again. I vaguely recall waking up on my side in the fetal position, with tears in my eyes, body soaking wet, both nipples on fire, testicles nowhere to be found, with my left arm tucked under my body in the oddest position, and tingling in my legs? The cat was making meowing sounds I had never heard before, clinging to a picture frame hanging above the fireplace, obviously in an attempt to avoid getting slammed by my body flopping all over the living room.
Note: If you ever feel compelled to 'mug' yourself with a taser, one note of caution: there is no such thing as a one second burst when you zap yourself! You will not lt go of that thing until it is dislodged from your hand by a violent thrashing about on the floor.. A three second burst would be considered conservative?
IT HURT LIKE HELL!!!
A minute or so later (I can't be sure, as time was a relative thing at that point), I collected my wits (what little I had left), sat up and surveyed the landscape. My bent reading glasses were on the mantel of the fireplace. The recliner was upside down and about 8 feet or so from where it originally was. My triceps, right thigh and both nipples were still twitching. My face felt like it had been shot up with Novocain, and my bottom lip weighed 88 lbs. I had no control over the drooling. Apparently I pooped on myself, but was too numb to know for sure and my sense of smell was gone. I saw a faint smoke cloud above my head which I believe came from my hair. I'm still looking for my nuts and I'm offering a significant reward for their safe return!!
P.S. My wife loved the gift, and now regularly threatens me with it! 'If you think education is difficult, try being stupid.'
Sunday, November 23, 2008
River deep, mountain high
How long do bear markets last?There's how long the market takes to bottom-out, and then also how long it takes to match its previous peak. In real terms (adjusted for CPI), here's the last two Dow bears:
1929: 3 years to hit bottom, lost 86% of its peak value, in all took over 29 years (i.e. in 1958) to match its 1929 high; then a further 8 years to reach a new record top
1966: 16 years to hit bottom, lost 73% of its peak value, in all took over 29 years (i.e. in 1995) to match its 1966 high; then a further 4 years to reach a new record top
1999: ...
See you back on the high slopes in 2029?
The crushing weight of debt
US GDP is estimated at $14.3 trillon, and the Chinese article referenced in my post yesterday calculated total debts to be $68.5 trillion. The average interest rate on Federal debt in October was 4.009%.
So if that interest rate applied to all debts in the US, it would equate to 19.2% of GDP. In other words, $19.20 out of every 100 dollars earned simply pays interest. But private borrowing costs more, so the real burden is even greater.
Worse still is the fact that debts have been rapidly increasing for years. A study by the Foundation for Fiscal Reform calculates that debt-to-GDP rose from 249% in 1983 to 392% earlier this year, an average increase of nearly 6% (of GDP) per year; actually, accelerating faster than that in the last few years.
So merely to go no further into debt, plus paying interest without ever repaying capital, would cost at least 25% of GDP. And if there were (please!) a plan to abolish all debt by the beginning of the next century (92 years away), that would add another 5% or so, bringing the total national debt servicing to 30% of GDP.
Having got to this breakneck speed, there is no difference between stopping and crashing.
I suspect there simply must be debt destruction - either slowly, in the form of currency devaluation, or quickly, in debt writeoffs and defaults.
So if that interest rate applied to all debts in the US, it would equate to 19.2% of GDP. In other words, $19.20 out of every 100 dollars earned simply pays interest. But private borrowing costs more, so the real burden is even greater.
Worse still is the fact that debts have been rapidly increasing for years. A study by the Foundation for Fiscal Reform calculates that debt-to-GDP rose from 249% in 1983 to 392% earlier this year, an average increase of nearly 6% (of GDP) per year; actually, accelerating faster than that in the last few years.
So merely to go no further into debt, plus paying interest without ever repaying capital, would cost at least 25% of GDP. And if there were (please!) a plan to abolish all debt by the beginning of the next century (92 years away), that would add another 5% or so, bringing the total national debt servicing to 30% of GDP.
Having got to this breakneck speed, there is no difference between stopping and crashing.
I suspect there simply must be debt destruction - either slowly, in the form of currency devaluation, or quickly, in debt writeoffs and defaults.
Presumed Consent revisited
Most of us know by now that the government wants to increase rates of organ donation by assuming the right to our bodies the moment we cease to breathe, unless we opt-out of their grisly clutches. Jimmy Young in the Sunday Express notes the failure of such schemes in Brazil and France, for example.
My wife points out that in England, it has always been the law that the body of the deceased belongs to the next of kin. Or has that gone by the board since the EU abolished our country's sovereign right to make its own law?
What has happened to the Common Law, Natural Justice, The Reasonable Man and the long, bloodily-won fight to assert the Englishman's rights against the overweening powers of the State?
And will these things have to be re-won by bloody resistance, one day?
My wife points out that in England, it has always been the law that the body of the deceased belongs to the next of kin. Or has that gone by the board since the EU abolished our country's sovereign right to make its own law?
What has happened to the Common Law, Natural Justice, The Reasonable Man and the long, bloodily-won fight to assert the Englishman's rights against the overweening powers of the State?
And will these things have to be re-won by bloody resistance, one day?
Bank crashes and the Basel Accords
I need information and understanding - please help me, somebody.
I've pointed out more than once that M4 bank lending in the UK accelerated from 2003 on, and I suspected it was something to do with reducing bank capital adequacy requirements, so the government (via its regulators) would have been implicated. In other words, I've been looking for the villain of the piece, and the smoking gun.
But do you think I can find them?
What I have found so far is references to the Basel Accords, Basel I and Basel II. Basel I became law in the G10 countries including the UK in 1992, and Basel II was published in 2004. The general drift, I understand, is to encourage a uniformity of approach to systemic financial risk, and to introduce a system of risk-weighting bank capital according to what the banks are lending against or investing in. What a success that has proved! Perhaps we should refer to the scheme as "Basel Fawlty".
But can somebody help unpack and simplify what actually happened? Is it, for example, possible that this system was perceived by the banks as a more pliable alternative to fixed minimum reserve ratios, and so they reduced the cash in their vaults to the very least that they could tweak the definitions? For example, we have read many times how mortgage-backed securities are at the heart of the subprime problem, because the packages could be represented as having much less risk than they actually contained.
So is the present crisis an unintended consequence of more elastic international regulation, dating back as far as the early 1990s?
Saturday, November 22, 2008
It's good news week
Im all the gloom, a ray of light: Kiva has just hit $50 million in micro-loans to poor entrepreneurs around the world. Join one of their teams - I have (click on logo in sidebar).
The sixfold path to Chinese hegemony
The Mogambo Guru does a (tragi-) comedy riff on a Chinese piece he's read. Here's a list of tunes that the Chinese author is calling the piper to play:
1. The US should cancel the limits on high-tech exports to China, and allow China to acquire advanced technology and high-tech companies from the US
2. The US needs to open its financial system to Chinese financial institutions, allowing all Chinese financial firms to open branches and develop business in the US
3. The US should not prevent Europe from canceling the ban against selling weapons to China
4. The US should stop selling military weapons to Taiwan
5. The US should loosen its limits on numbers of Chinese tourists and allow them to travel freely to the US
6. The US should never restrain China’s exports to the US and force RMB appreciation in the name of domestic protectionism and employment pressure
Given the relationship between government and journalism in China, I half-suspect that the article may have had input, shall we say, from official sources. Looking at the implications of these demands, we may begin to tremble.
Below, I put in graph from the statistics quoted in that article. To my layman's mind, it's clear that bailouts transferring debt from other piles to the national pile, are a waste of time: it's debt cancellation that's needed.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Publish the lot
Currently there's a furore over here about the publication on the internet of the membership of the British National Party. Some of them look like scrubbed-up thugs, it's true, but I can't see them ever being anything but a cranky and resentful minority. However, if you are a policeman and hold officially-unapproved views, you will lose your job; and there are others for whom this cyber-unmasking will prove a permanent block in their careers.
But if we really want to set the cat among the pigeons, let's make public all political party membership, past and present. Then let's correlate the information with employment. For I recall reading in the 70s that it was pretty much career suicide for teachers in some London boroughs not to be members of the Labour Party, and I suspect the same issue would apply in other areas and other lines of work. And how about mapping the complex network of personal and employment-related relationships, as was done so damningly for Macmillan's government?
And who was in the International Marxist Group and other left-wing, semi-secret societies? The present Minister for "Justice", Jack Straw, has, I understand, called for and either weeded or destroyed the file on himself years ago, a luxury not afforded to many of us. And who went to those annually-advertised Marxist "summer schools" and carefully didn't join a political party, or let their membership lapse to maintain radio silence in their future missions?
Maybe we'll see where the real danger lies.
But if we really want to set the cat among the pigeons, let's make public all political party membership, past and present. Then let's correlate the information with employment. For I recall reading in the 70s that it was pretty much career suicide for teachers in some London boroughs not to be members of the Labour Party, and I suspect the same issue would apply in other areas and other lines of work. And how about mapping the complex network of personal and employment-related relationships, as was done so damningly for Macmillan's government?
And who was in the International Marxist Group and other left-wing, semi-secret societies? The present Minister for "Justice", Jack Straw, has, I understand, called for and either weeded or destroyed the file on himself years ago, a luxury not afforded to many of us. And who went to those annually-advertised Marxist "summer schools" and carefully didn't join a political party, or let their membership lapse to maintain radio silence in their future missions?
Maybe we'll see where the real danger lies.
Moral hazard and white-collar crime
I've said several times that I think a benchmark punishment for those financiers who have very nearly destroyed us with, if not criminal intent, then culpable ignorance, should be the repayment of their last 5 years' bonuses.
Harsh, one may think; unreasonable. Surely this would bankrupt many and leave them homeless.
Well, what is happening now to thousands of the victims of their greedy schemes across America and Britain? Men seeing the disappointment and cooling affection in their women's eyes, feeling the ardour of embraces replaced by demoralising reassurance, knowing that after the comfort comes recrimination; women worrying about their men's fidelity and sobriety, about their own security and the safety of their children; education disrupted, futures blighted.
A long-running motif in public affairs here and presumably across the Atlantic has been "getting away with it". You will all have your own list of those who have been rewarded for misbehaviour. Without fitting retribution, society will continue to crumble. This is not about vengeance, but about making whole.
Harsh, one may think; unreasonable. Surely this would bankrupt many and leave them homeless.
Well, what is happening now to thousands of the victims of their greedy schemes across America and Britain? Men seeing the disappointment and cooling affection in their women's eyes, feeling the ardour of embraces replaced by demoralising reassurance, knowing that after the comfort comes recrimination; women worrying about their men's fidelity and sobriety, about their own security and the safety of their children; education disrupted, futures blighted.
A long-running motif in public affairs here and presumably across the Atlantic has been "getting away with it". You will all have your own list of those who have been rewarded for misbehaviour. Without fitting retribution, society will continue to crumble. This is not about vengeance, but about making whole.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
The reality goggles are smeared
This project of mine is echoed by Eric Janszen of iTulip. His graph and red line suggests what I've been saying recently, that the Dow's trend (if it has one) could be to 6,000 points, with an overshoot to 4,000.
My independently-researched version:
iTulip's:
My independently-researched version:
iTulip's:
It's really hard to see the past in our own terms. I'm trying to do it using the Consumer Price Index, which opens another can of worms about the composition and weighting of that index, especially since (I understand) it affects government statistics and benefits. However, you have to start somewhere.
The first thing to note is how freakish recent years have been. If you connect previous start-of-month highs (August 1929, January 1966) and extended the line, you'd expect the recent Dow highs of 1999 and 2007 to be no more than 10,000 points.
And as for the lows: the drop from 1929 to 1932 was 86% "in real terms"; from 1966 to 1982, 73%; and so far since 1999, 46% - but this last from an amazing historical high. And the 350%-plus American debt-to-GDP ratio is quite unprecedented.
So the history of the last 80 years offers no clear guide as to what could happen next. If proportionately as severe as 1932, the Dow could dive to about 2,100 points; if like 1982, just below 4,000. BUT the second of these great waves crashed rather less than the first, so maybe the third will be even more merciful, perhaps a top-to-bottom fall of only 60%, i.e. end up at c. 5,900.
I note that the Dow has closed tonight at 7,552.29. What a fast fall we've seen - will it spring back sharply and then recommence its decline, as in previous cycles, or is it popping like a balloon?
Methodology
I've noted the Dow as it stood on the first trading day each month, starting October 1928 and ending November 2008 (plus where it stood yesterday - 7.997.28 - since we've seen a further steep fall). Then I've noted the historical CPI as at the end of the previous month in each case. Then, looking at the latest Dow figure, I've adjusted historical Dow figures accordingly (i.e. Dow then/CPI then, times CPI now).
Sources: Dow: Yahoo! Finance; CPI: InflationData.com
UPDATE
iTulip today also reproduces its graph on holdings at the Federal Reserve bank, underscoring the point that the current crisis has features that we can scarcely compare to anything in the last 80 years. Except that it's unlikely to be good news.
America to default on its debts?
Michael Panzner introduces the topic with an entry from the Economist blog - and look at the comments.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
The Gadarene Swine
In a visit to old haunts, ex-Wall Street trader Michael Lewis (author of "Liar's Poker") describes how greed was turbocharged by ignorance among both the experts and the public, firing them all well beyond the edge of the precipice.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Latest figures on foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries
The U.S. Treasury statistics issued today list 29 foreign holders of their securities. Between them, the three above account for $110.3 billion of the $110.6 billion increase. What is is to have friends, I suppose.Not the same as the last Great Depression
How it won't be A very interesting and credible New Great Depression scenario from Drake Bennett at the Boston Globe, explaining how the grainy images of the 1930s will not be remade and colorized for the 2000s. The same, and not the same.
htp: Michael Panzner - another nugget brought in by the news miner!
What goes up
The US dollar is in a kind of bear market rally, according to Jim Rogers. Then it's down.
htp: Anticitizen One
htp: Anticitizen One
Monday, November 17, 2008
Presumed Consent, Part Two
The government "has not ruled out" a scheme to treat those who die intestate as donors to Party funds, a spokesman said today. A White Paper shortly to be issued by HMSO for limited distribution assumes the writing of a will to be an opt-out by the deceased from offering their estates to the Labour Party, and deems those who fail to make such an elementary arrangement to have assented thereby to the seizure of their goods after death. At Prime Minister's Questions, the Premier declined to discuss the proposal, saying that it was a matter for the Treasury Committee, to which he has just made several new appointments to supplement the existing membership. Further details of the Paper and the composition of the Committee are withheld, as subject to a Confidentiality Order under European legislation. However, we are permitted to reveal that a Will Contestation Board will shortly be set up and given terms of reference, under the aegis of the Privy Council.
Presumed consent
The government has embarked on a campaign to convince the nation that an opt-out or presumed consent system for General Elections will improve government majorities and save on administrative costs. Under the proposed system, the voter will be presumed to have voted for New Labour unless he/she has registered their dissent. Only if an outright majority of those eligible to vote have registered such a protest, will the public be put to the inconvenience of an election. Dissenters will be interviewed at Neighbourhood Offices to determine that they understand the issues properly and that their reasons for objecting are valid.
Infiltration
Is it me, or has this formerly-funny radio programme become a tendentious political broadcast aiming to reinforce the prejudices of a snickering, sycophantic coterie of not-as-smart-as-they-think-they-are socialists? Alan Coren, thou shouldst be living at this hour.
Carte Blanche
"... Congress doesn't know how much money he (Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson) has given away to anyone."
- an estimated $290 billion so far.
- an estimated $290 billion so far.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Looking back, looking forward
UPDATE: "This secular bear market will last a lot longer and be much deeper than anyone thinks. Sadly, very few are prepared for it." - Mish.
This gels with what Marc Faber was saying quite some times back, that the market had further to drop than many people thought. Equities may seem to be fair value in terms of multiples of their earnings, but when the earnings fall, valuations have to be reassessed.
This gels with what Marc Faber was saying quite some times back, that the market had further to drop than many people thought. Equities may seem to be fair value in terms of multiples of their earnings, but when the earnings fall, valuations have to be reassessed.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Food shortages next?
London Banker explores the implications of the drying-up of letters of credit. Stock that larder extra well until you've heard the problem has been fixed.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Was I right?
I said in comments to one of my Monday pieces, "Up to a certain limit, one can purchase index-linked certificates to preserve one's savings, but I'm trying to guess what rich people will do to get out of cash if currencies everywhere inflate - buy Van Goghs?"
And now Reuters reports that Sotheby's is still selling contemporary art at high prices.
The rich are getting their servants to load the packing-crates into the train while still telling us that we'll win the war. Perhaps they'll flee to Argentina.
And now Reuters reports that Sotheby's is still selling contemporary art at high prices.
The rich are getting their servants to load the packing-crates into the train while still telling us that we'll win the war. Perhaps they'll flee to Argentina.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
You can hear the recession
In recent years, the Bonfire Night (November 5th) celebrations began weeks early - rockets and bangers aplenty every night - in fact, evenings and mornings as well. And after the big event on the day, more for days and weeks after. It didn't seem to matter (even in our "artisan" area) that a single banger could cost £5 or more; every year was like Operation Shock and Awe.
Not this year. A pop or two in the days immediately before and after, something mild on the night. No more 70s Beirut.
Anybody else spot straws in the wind?
Not this year. A pop or two in the days immediately before and after, something mild on the night. No more 70s Beirut.
Anybody else spot straws in the wind?
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Is the right way possible?
The state is always and everywhere a danger, even when it has no monopoly on money and no printing press that can create money tickets at will. But a state with the ability to make its own money is a grave and relentless threat to prosperity and freedom. It leaves the future entirely to the discretion of the money managers. Every day we live under the threat that the United States could be the next Weimar Republic or even another Zimbabwe. All that stands between us and that day is the wisdom and prudence of the Fed.
Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jnr - talk given on 1 November 2008
Now, how do we mice bell the cats?
And if a foreign nation that trades with you uses currency inflation to support its domestic employment and its exports to you, are you prepared to see a slump in your own economy in order to maintain the integrity of your currency? Can virtue be rewarded, or is it (as seems to happen in this world) severely punished?
Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jnr - talk given on 1 November 2008
Now, how do we mice bell the cats?
And if a foreign nation that trades with you uses currency inflation to support its domestic employment and its exports to you, are you prepared to see a slump in your own economy in order to maintain the integrity of your currency? Can virtue be rewarded, or is it (as seems to happen in this world) severely punished?
Monday, November 10, 2008
Gordon Brown and the New World Order
"...we can together seize this moment of change in our world to create a truly global society..."
Does he know what he is saying? How would one vote out, or flee, a world government?
As Huckleberry Finn says,"I reckon I got to light out for the Territory ahead of the rest, because Aunt Sally she's going to adopt me and sivilize me, and I can't stand it."
Any suggestions as to good places left to flee to?
Does he know what he is saying? How would one vote out, or flee, a world government?
As Huckleberry Finn says,"I reckon I got to light out for the Territory ahead of the rest, because Aunt Sally she's going to adopt me and sivilize me, and I can't stand it."
Any suggestions as to good places left to flee to?
"I've got a little list"
It was apparent five or six years ago that credit card debt, mortgage borrowing and house prices were rising too fast.
Howard Flight, in today's Daily Mail.
As they break cover to make themselves appear wise now, you may care to amuse yourself by compiling a list of those who knew at the time, and didn't say.
Howard Flight, in today's Daily Mail.
As they break cover to make themselves appear wise now, you may care to amuse yourself by compiling a list of those who knew at the time, and didn't say.
All in the same boat
Mish notes that because it's a global crash, everyone is printing money and the relative value of the dollar has not plummeted as many expected:
... Looking ahead, it is quite possible that if all pegs were removed and the Renmimbi allowed to freely float, that the Renmimbi, not the US dollar would crash. Certainly the pound could crash (I think that is likely), and the EU might even break up.
... Looking ahead, it is quite possible that if all pegs were removed and the Renmimbi allowed to freely float, that the Renmimbi, not the US dollar would crash. Certainly the pound could crash (I think that is likely), and the EU might even break up.
Sunday, November 09, 2008
FDIC underfunded
Two more US banks have just failed, bringing the total this year to 19:
The FDIC estimates that through 2013 there will be about $40 billion in losses to the deposit insurance fund, including an $8.9 billion loss from the failure of IndyMac Bank. The FDIC is raising insurance premiums paid by banks and thrifts to replenish its fund, which now stands at around $45.2 billion, below the minimum target level set by Congress and the lowest level since 2003.
The current target (the "Designated Reserve Ratio") is 1.25% of deposits and is discussed here. According to Mish on July 23, insured deposits in the US banking system totalled $4.24 trillion, which if unchanged now would mean the FDIC current funds represent 1.066% of the sum insured, s0 the FDIC needs to raise another c. $8 billion in premiums from banks.
The question remains, whether merely 1.25% is sufficient for present and foreseeable circumstances. Dr Marc Faber is now talking about eventual US inflation and State bankruptcy - after a near-term rally.
The FDIC estimates that through 2013 there will be about $40 billion in losses to the deposit insurance fund, including an $8.9 billion loss from the failure of IndyMac Bank. The FDIC is raising insurance premiums paid by banks and thrifts to replenish its fund, which now stands at around $45.2 billion, below the minimum target level set by Congress and the lowest level since 2003.
The current target (the "Designated Reserve Ratio") is 1.25% of deposits and is discussed here. According to Mish on July 23, insured deposits in the US banking system totalled $4.24 trillion, which if unchanged now would mean the FDIC current funds represent 1.066% of the sum insured, s0 the FDIC needs to raise another c. $8 billion in premiums from banks.
The question remains, whether merely 1.25% is sufficient for present and foreseeable circumstances. Dr Marc Faber is now talking about eventual US inflation and State bankruptcy - after a near-term rally.
Like I said
I've said more than once, including in my latest letter to the Spectator, the notion that the East is going to suffer from the slump as badly as the West needs some qualification. It's what happens after the slump that will be decisive, and the East has the gear and skilled people to lead the way out, as the Telegraph reports:
Arcelor, being three times larger than its nearest rival, Japan's Nippon Steel, and sharing 10 pc of the industry's global sales, wields huge power to determine what happens to prices and production. In the medium to longer term, Mr Mittal expects the industry to bounce back sharply as the pace of industrialisation in China and India picks up again.
In China, billionaire Shagang steel magnate Shen Wenrong has also planned for the coming downturn. In fact he's not even cutting his prices, since (I surmise) his game plan is that his over-leveraged competitors are going to go bust and customers will have to come to him anyway.
This is smart, counter-intuitive strategy for dealing with a recession. Those who try to survive by cutting margins will get skinny and become more vulnerable to delayed delivery by cash-strapped suppliers, bad-debt customers, and shark bigger-business customers that deliberately pay late to force your business under and then buy your goods from the official receiver at a 90% discount.
In a really post-industrial economy, we in the UK and USA will discover the disadvantages of being run by money-grows-on-trees lawyers, box-it-all-up-and-get-it-on-the-train-before-the-war-ends bankers and hang-onto-office-by-your-bitten-fingernails politicians.
My plan? Pay off debts, hoard some emergency cash (and maybe gold), and if I have to invest, put it in something that's secure and inflation-proofed.
Arcelor, being three times larger than its nearest rival, Japan's Nippon Steel, and sharing 10 pc of the industry's global sales, wields huge power to determine what happens to prices and production. In the medium to longer term, Mr Mittal expects the industry to bounce back sharply as the pace of industrialisation in China and India picks up again.
In China, billionaire Shagang steel magnate Shen Wenrong has also planned for the coming downturn. In fact he's not even cutting his prices, since (I surmise) his game plan is that his over-leveraged competitors are going to go bust and customers will have to come to him anyway.
This is smart, counter-intuitive strategy for dealing with a recession. Those who try to survive by cutting margins will get skinny and become more vulnerable to delayed delivery by cash-strapped suppliers, bad-debt customers, and shark bigger-business customers that deliberately pay late to force your business under and then buy your goods from the official receiver at a 90% discount.
In a really post-industrial economy, we in the UK and USA will discover the disadvantages of being run by money-grows-on-trees lawyers, box-it-all-up-and-get-it-on-the-train-before-the-war-ends bankers and hang-onto-office-by-your-bitten-fingernails politicians.
My plan? Pay off debts, hoard some emergency cash (and maybe gold), and if I have to invest, put it in something that's secure and inflation-proofed.
Saturday, November 08, 2008
A brilliant idea - Kiva microfinance
Let's think about people to whom $25 would make - is making - a difference. Rory Sutherland's column in The Spectator this week is about Kiva, a project that lends small sums to individuals and groups around the world, mostly to set up or develop little businesses.
They repay from their increased production, you get to re-lend to more people. Really, it's a way that the poor but proud can help each other, using your finance to grease the wheels.
Having read Sutherland, I've just joined, and I really feel good about it. Why don't you?
They repay from their increased production, you get to re-lend to more people. Really, it's a way that the poor but proud can help each other, using your finance to grease the wheels.
Having read Sutherland, I've just joined, and I really feel good about it. Why don't you?
Coming your way
Marc Faber: There are two possibilities. Banks go under and the stakeholders are left with nothing, as is the case with Lehman Brothers, or governments pump money into the financial system so that the incompetent financial clowns in Bahnhofstrasse [Zurich's financial centre] and Wall Street can continue to eat in fancy restaurants.
I am clearly in favour of the first because the consequences of these state interventions are massive budget deficits. To finance these, governments have to acquire money. For that they have to borrow money, which makes state debt and interest payments soar. US economists have come to the conclusion from the trends that there will be a US state bankruptcy.
Swissinfo: Do you share that view?
M.F.: One hundred per cent.
(Source)
I am clearly in favour of the first because the consequences of these state interventions are massive budget deficits. To finance these, governments have to acquire money. For that they have to borrow money, which makes state debt and interest payments soar. US economists have come to the conclusion from the trends that there will be a US state bankruptcy.
Swissinfo: Do you share that view?
M.F.: One hundred per cent.
(Source)
Friday, November 07, 2008
A glimpse from the rich man's coach
Here is a letter to the NYT from the insouciant Don Boudreaux. Unfortunately the comments to this piece on Cafe Hayek are closed - I wonder why? So I'll have to note here that it stirred a memory...
‘Now, you know,’ said Mr. Bounderby, taking some sherry, ‘we have never had any difficulty with you, and you have never been one of the unreasonable ones. You don’t expect to be set up in a coach and six, and to be fed on turtle soup and venison, with a gold spoon, as a good many of ’em do!’
Hard Times, by Charles Dickens
And another, from Shaw's Pygmalion:
I ask you, what am I? I'm one of the undeserving poor: that's what I am. Think of what that means to a man. It means that he's up agen middle class morality all the time. If there's anything going, and I put in for a bit of it, it's always the same story: 'You're undeserving; so you can't have it.' But my needs is as great as the most deserving widow's that ever got money out of six different charities in one week for the death of the same husband. I don't need less than a deserving man: I need more. I don't eat less hearty than him; and I drink a lot more. I want a bit of amusement, cause I'm a thinking man. I want cheerfulness and a song and a band when I feel low. Well, they charge me just the same for everything as they charge the deserving. What is middle class morality? Just an excuse for never giving me anything.
The American Declaration of Independence states "all men are created equal", and of course it was obvious even then that they are not so, whether by birth, upbringing, education or natural talent. Not, in those senses; but the bold defiance of Nature and Society represented by the libertarian revolution of America, and of revolutionary France, is that they have, they should be given, equal dignity, as of right.
And unless a tenured economics professor who boasts of not voting, in a colony that rebelled on the principle of "no taxation without representation", wishes to see the poor squashed while the rich loot the country without fear of retribution, he will need to develop his thesis somewhat.
I do not see how a country can be composed exclusively of the well-off, nor can I imagine how, given all their disadvantages, the poor may rise up as one and join the middle class. There will always be inequality, so our debate should be about setting a minimum standard for the poorest, while motivating them to better themselves if they possibly can. That's certainly a circle that will take some squaring, and a benefit-trap-riddled Britain can scarcely present itself as a model answer.
But I don't see how air conditioning and two cars (what? all poor families?) quite make up for the miseries of ill-health, disability and a shorter lifespan. And it's not entirely down to consciously-made bad choices, in quite the way Mr Boudreaux implies. The ideal-world notion of rational choice has to take into acount real-world limited intelligence, inadequate information, poorer education and in many cases disharmonious emotional constitutions produced by poor parenting, lousy neighbours, failing schools and fear of crime and destitution.
Dives should not look down upon Lazarus.
‘Now, you know,’ said Mr. Bounderby, taking some sherry, ‘we have never had any difficulty with you, and you have never been one of the unreasonable ones. You don’t expect to be set up in a coach and six, and to be fed on turtle soup and venison, with a gold spoon, as a good many of ’em do!’
Hard Times, by Charles Dickens
And another, from Shaw's Pygmalion:
I ask you, what am I? I'm one of the undeserving poor: that's what I am. Think of what that means to a man. It means that he's up agen middle class morality all the time. If there's anything going, and I put in for a bit of it, it's always the same story: 'You're undeserving; so you can't have it.' But my needs is as great as the most deserving widow's that ever got money out of six different charities in one week for the death of the same husband. I don't need less than a deserving man: I need more. I don't eat less hearty than him; and I drink a lot more. I want a bit of amusement, cause I'm a thinking man. I want cheerfulness and a song and a band when I feel low. Well, they charge me just the same for everything as they charge the deserving. What is middle class morality? Just an excuse for never giving me anything.
The American Declaration of Independence states "all men are created equal", and of course it was obvious even then that they are not so, whether by birth, upbringing, education or natural talent. Not, in those senses; but the bold defiance of Nature and Society represented by the libertarian revolution of America, and of revolutionary France, is that they have, they should be given, equal dignity, as of right.
And unless a tenured economics professor who boasts of not voting, in a colony that rebelled on the principle of "no taxation without representation", wishes to see the poor squashed while the rich loot the country without fear of retribution, he will need to develop his thesis somewhat.
I do not see how a country can be composed exclusively of the well-off, nor can I imagine how, given all their disadvantages, the poor may rise up as one and join the middle class. There will always be inequality, so our debate should be about setting a minimum standard for the poorest, while motivating them to better themselves if they possibly can. That's certainly a circle that will take some squaring, and a benefit-trap-riddled Britain can scarcely present itself as a model answer.
But I don't see how air conditioning and two cars (what? all poor families?) quite make up for the miseries of ill-health, disability and a shorter lifespan. And it's not entirely down to consciously-made bad choices, in quite the way Mr Boudreaux implies. The ideal-world notion of rational choice has to take into acount real-world limited intelligence, inadequate information, poorer education and in many cases disharmonious emotional constitutions produced by poor parenting, lousy neighbours, failing schools and fear of crime and destitution.
Dives should not look down upon Lazarus.
A fuss about banks
British banks are being criticised for not passing the 1.5% rate cut on to their customers, but retaining some or all of the difference. Presumably they are trying to rebuild their reserves, for running down which they have been much more justifiably criticised. Or do we wish them to remain insolvent, which, as Rick Santelli has admitted, they are?
As my wife said, what do we expect the banks to do: take in washing? Look after your pets in holiday time? Run daycare for the elderly in their conveniently-located, brightly-lit premises?
As my wife said, what do we expect the banks to do: take in washing? Look after your pets in holiday time? Run daycare for the elderly in their conveniently-located, brightly-lit premises?
Thursday, November 06, 2008
Inflation-adjusted Dow
( htp: The Mogambo Guru)As I said in my recent letter to the Spectator, "a return to 6,000 points should be unsurprising, and a low of 4,000 not impossible."
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Just asking
A propos the (I would say) criminal systematic financial looting of past years:
1. Is there any limit in scope or number to the pardon/s of a retiring US President?
2. Can an incoming President challenge or reverse any such pardon?
P.S. If Thomas J. DiLorenzo is right, perhaps the pardons should be made retrospective right back to 1781, just to be on the safe side.
1. Is there any limit in scope or number to the pardon/s of a retiring US President?
2. Can an incoming President challenge or reverse any such pardon?
P.S. If Thomas J. DiLorenzo is right, perhaps the pardons should be made retrospective right back to 1781, just to be on the safe side.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Pro-am economics
But there are at least 15,000 professional economists in this country, and you’re saying only two or three of them foresaw the mortgage crisis?
Ten or 12 would be closer than two or three.
What does that say about the field of economics, which claims to be a science?
It’s an enormous blot on the reputation of the profession. There are thousands of economists. Most of them teach. And most of them teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless.
James K. Galbraith, 31 October 2008 (htp: Jesse)
And I thought I ought to start reading academic textbooks on economics. It seems that the difference between an amateur and a professional is that the latter gets paid.
Ten or 12 would be closer than two or three.
What does that say about the field of economics, which claims to be a science?
It’s an enormous blot on the reputation of the profession. There are thousands of economists. Most of them teach. And most of them teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless.
James K. Galbraith, 31 October 2008 (htp: Jesse)
And I thought I ought to start reading academic textbooks on economics. It seems that the difference between an amateur and a professional is that the latter gets paid.
Sunday, November 02, 2008
Dow 4,900 - sometime?
I'm still working on looking at the Dow in real (CPI-adjusted) terms. Meanwhile, note that in two previous cycles, the Dow dropped to a third of its former peak: from 15 to 5, from 30 to 10 (see red dots).If history repeats itself, then in real terms the Dow would again lose two-thirds of its value, from 66 to 22, which considering last autumn's peak would imply an ultimate low (if it happened all at once, tomorrow) of about 4,900 points.
But in the previous cases, the process took years to complete, and I would expect it to be a long affair this time, too. The Dow may not hit this 4,900 low in nominal terms.
Continuing this theme, may I draw your attention to the letter I emailed to The Spectator today?
Public service, public broadcasting, public nuisance
12 months' earnings in pounds sterling (official for the PM, reported for the others):
Yet another letter to the Spectator
Sir:
Your leader (“Riders On The Storm”, 1 November) suggests that current investor sentiment is “excessively negative”. That depends upon one’s historical perspective, in both directions.
A reversion to the mean (over the last generation) for UK house prices would be some 3.5 times household income, which on 2007 figures would imply average valuations around £120,000. Turning to shares, the progress of the Dow over the past 80 years (adjusted for consumer prices) indicates that a return to 6,000 points should be unsurprising, and a low of 4,000 not impossible.
But in addition to the business cycle and recurrent bubbles, there are deep linear changes at work. While maintaining the Western consumer in his fantasy of idle wealth, the East has been building up its human and physical industrial resources. We are focussing on the present recession, but not what the world will look like afterwards. When Asia has sufficiently developed its domestic demand, it will lose its enthusiasm for US Treasury debt, and the credit markets will tear at our economies with higher interest rates. Already, the search is well under way for an alternative to the US dollar as a world trading currency; and foreign investors, sovereign wealth funds and oil-rich governments are building up holdings in our bellwether businesses (e.g. Barclays Bank), thus converting imbalance into equity and exporting our future dividends.
Besides, the Dow and FTSE companies derive an increasing proportion of their income from abroad, so stock indices no longer reflect national prosperity. Real wages have stalled, and seem set to decline against a background of rising inflation and global competition; this, plus an interest rate correction, might strengthen the downward trend for house prices.
In short, successive governments have failed to repair our economic structure, and bear market rallies notwithstanding, I think we must eventually recalibrate our measures of normality.
Your leader (“Riders On The Storm”, 1 November) suggests that current investor sentiment is “excessively negative”. That depends upon one’s historical perspective, in both directions.
A reversion to the mean (over the last generation) for UK house prices would be some 3.5 times household income, which on 2007 figures would imply average valuations around £120,000. Turning to shares, the progress of the Dow over the past 80 years (adjusted for consumer prices) indicates that a return to 6,000 points should be unsurprising, and a low of 4,000 not impossible.
But in addition to the business cycle and recurrent bubbles, there are deep linear changes at work. While maintaining the Western consumer in his fantasy of idle wealth, the East has been building up its human and physical industrial resources. We are focussing on the present recession, but not what the world will look like afterwards. When Asia has sufficiently developed its domestic demand, it will lose its enthusiasm for US Treasury debt, and the credit markets will tear at our economies with higher interest rates. Already, the search is well under way for an alternative to the US dollar as a world trading currency; and foreign investors, sovereign wealth funds and oil-rich governments are building up holdings in our bellwether businesses (e.g. Barclays Bank), thus converting imbalance into equity and exporting our future dividends.
Besides, the Dow and FTSE companies derive an increasing proportion of their income from abroad, so stock indices no longer reflect national prosperity. Real wages have stalled, and seem set to decline against a background of rising inflation and global competition; this, plus an interest rate correction, might strengthen the downward trend for house prices.
In short, successive governments have failed to repair our economic structure, and bear market rallies notwithstanding, I think we must eventually recalibrate our measures of normality.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Aussie humour
At first I was prepared to believe that an Australian politican could be this aggressive, but despite Web-spread assurances that it's genuine, it come from this series.
Doing the rounds: explaining the world with cows
I think the main thing learned here is that, as Oscar Wilde said, when good Americans die they go to Paris.
The World Explained with Cows
DEMOCRAT You have two cows.Your neighbor has none.You feel guilty for being successful. Barbara Streisand sings for you.
REPUBLICAN You have two cows.Your neighbor has none.So?
SOCIALIST You have two cows.The government takes one and gives it to your neighbor.You form a cooperative to tell him how to manage his cow.
COMMUNIST You have two cows.The government seizes both and provides you with milk.You wait in line for hours to get it.It is expensive and sour.
CAPITALISM, AMERICAN STYLE You have two cows.You sell one, buy a bull, and build a herd of cows.
DEMOCRACY, AMERICAN STYLE You have two cows.The government taxes you to the point you have to sell both to support a man in a foreign country who has only one cow, which was a gift from your government.
BUREAUCRACY, AMERICAN STYLE You have two cows.The government takes them both, shoots one, milks the other, pays you for the milk, and then pours the milk down the drain.
AMERICAN CORPORATION You have two cows.You sell one, lease it back to yourself and do an IPO on the 2nd one.You force the two cows to produce the milk of four cows.You are surprised when one cow drops dead. You spin an announcement to the analysts stating you have down sized and are reducing expenses.Your stock's price goes up.
FRENCH CORPORATION You have two cows.You go on strike because you want three cows.You go to lunch and drink wine.Life is good.
JAPANESE CORPORATION You have two cows.You redesign them so they are one tenth the size of an ordinary cow and produce twenty times the milk. They learn to travel on unbelievably crowded trains. Most are at the top of their class at cow school.
GERMAN CORPORATION You have two cows.You engineer them so they are all blond, give excellent quality milk, and run a hundred miles an hour. Unfortunately they also demand 13 weeks of vacation per year.
ITALIAN CORPORATION You have two cows but you don't know where they are. While ambling around, you see a beautiful woman.You break for lunch.Life is good.
RUSSIAN CORPORATION You have two cows.You have some vodka.You count them and learn you have five cows.You have some more vodka.You count them again and learn you have 42 cows. The Mafia shows up and takes over however many cows you really have.
TALIBAN CORPORATION You have all the cows in Afghanistan, which are two.You don't milk them because you cannot touch any creature's private parts.Then you kill them and claim a U.S. bomb blew them up while they were in the hospital.
IRAQI CORPORATION You have two cows.They go into hiding.They send radio tapes of their mooing.
POLISH CORPORATION You have two bulls.Employees are regularly maimed and killed attempting to milk them.
FLORIDA CORPORATION You have a black cow and a brown cow.Everyone votes for the best looking one.Some of the people who like the brown one best, vote for the black one.Some people vote for both. Some people vote for neither.Some people can't figure out how to vote at all.Finally, a bunch of guys from out-of-state tell you which is the best looking cow.
CALIFORNIAN You have a cow and a bull.The bull is depressed.It has spent its life living a lie.It goes away for two weeks and comes back after a taxpayer-paid sex-change operation. You now have two cows.One makes milk; the other doesn't.You try to sell the transgender cow, but its lawyer sues you for discrimination.You lose in court.You sell the milk-generating cow to pay the damages. You now have one rich, transgender, non-milk-producing cow.You change your business to beef. PETA pickets your farm.Jesse Jackson makes a speech in your driveway.Cruz Bustamante calls for higher farm taxes to help "working cows". Hillary Clinton calls for the nationalization of 1/7 of your farm "for the children."The legislature passes a law giving your farm to Mexico.The L.A. Times quotes five anonymous cows claiming you groped their teats. You declare bankruptcy and shut down all operations and the cow starves to death.The L.A. Times' analysis shows your business failure is Bush's fault.
htp: my wife's American cousin. GOK where it started, though.
The World Explained with Cows
DEMOCRAT You have two cows.Your neighbor has none.You feel guilty for being successful. Barbara Streisand sings for you.
REPUBLICAN You have two cows.Your neighbor has none.So?
SOCIALIST You have two cows.The government takes one and gives it to your neighbor.You form a cooperative to tell him how to manage his cow.
COMMUNIST You have two cows.The government seizes both and provides you with milk.You wait in line for hours to get it.It is expensive and sour.
CAPITALISM, AMERICAN STYLE You have two cows.You sell one, buy a bull, and build a herd of cows.
DEMOCRACY, AMERICAN STYLE You have two cows.The government taxes you to the point you have to sell both to support a man in a foreign country who has only one cow, which was a gift from your government.
BUREAUCRACY, AMERICAN STYLE You have two cows.The government takes them both, shoots one, milks the other, pays you for the milk, and then pours the milk down the drain.
AMERICAN CORPORATION You have two cows.You sell one, lease it back to yourself and do an IPO on the 2nd one.You force the two cows to produce the milk of four cows.You are surprised when one cow drops dead. You spin an announcement to the analysts stating you have down sized and are reducing expenses.Your stock's price goes up.
FRENCH CORPORATION You have two cows.You go on strike because you want three cows.You go to lunch and drink wine.Life is good.
JAPANESE CORPORATION You have two cows.You redesign them so they are one tenth the size of an ordinary cow and produce twenty times the milk. They learn to travel on unbelievably crowded trains. Most are at the top of their class at cow school.
GERMAN CORPORATION You have two cows.You engineer them so they are all blond, give excellent quality milk, and run a hundred miles an hour. Unfortunately they also demand 13 weeks of vacation per year.
ITALIAN CORPORATION You have two cows but you don't know where they are. While ambling around, you see a beautiful woman.You break for lunch.Life is good.
RUSSIAN CORPORATION You have two cows.You have some vodka.You count them and learn you have five cows.You have some more vodka.You count them again and learn you have 42 cows. The Mafia shows up and takes over however many cows you really have.
TALIBAN CORPORATION You have all the cows in Afghanistan, which are two.You don't milk them because you cannot touch any creature's private parts.Then you kill them and claim a U.S. bomb blew them up while they were in the hospital.
IRAQI CORPORATION You have two cows.They go into hiding.They send radio tapes of their mooing.
POLISH CORPORATION You have two bulls.Employees are regularly maimed and killed attempting to milk them.
FLORIDA CORPORATION You have a black cow and a brown cow.Everyone votes for the best looking one.Some of the people who like the brown one best, vote for the black one.Some people vote for both. Some people vote for neither.Some people can't figure out how to vote at all.Finally, a bunch of guys from out-of-state tell you which is the best looking cow.
CALIFORNIAN You have a cow and a bull.The bull is depressed.It has spent its life living a lie.It goes away for two weeks and comes back after a taxpayer-paid sex-change operation. You now have two cows.One makes milk; the other doesn't.You try to sell the transgender cow, but its lawyer sues you for discrimination.You lose in court.You sell the milk-generating cow to pay the damages. You now have one rich, transgender, non-milk-producing cow.You change your business to beef. PETA pickets your farm.Jesse Jackson makes a speech in your driveway.Cruz Bustamante calls for higher farm taxes to help "working cows". Hillary Clinton calls for the nationalization of 1/7 of your farm "for the children."The legislature passes a law giving your farm to Mexico.The L.A. Times quotes five anonymous cows claiming you groped their teats. You declare bankruptcy and shut down all operations and the cow starves to death.The L.A. Times' analysis shows your business failure is Bush's fault.
htp: my wife's American cousin. GOK where it started, though.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
A credible, horrible warning
In a fearsome, plain-speaking guide to the long-standing debt problem, Karl Denninger explains why he believes we are now in dire crisis. If the insolvent continue to be bailed out with money that the government itself must borrow from elsewhere, the American government's own credit will be destroyed. And non-Americans are in an even worse plight, in fact may trigger the explosion:
We may be days away from an international credit incident originating outside of the United States. Foreign nations, banks, and businesses have "levered up", or taken more risk, than we have. They too have chosen to lie.
This will hammer the stockmarket:
You have already seen nearly half of your money disappear.
You could see another half disappear - within days.
This is an implication of the graph I did on Sunday (see below), looking at the Dow adjusted for CPI inflation since 1928. A return to 4,500 points would seem to be reversion to the long-term norm - but to have it happen all at once, from its peak last October, is a scary prospect.
UPDATE
We may be days away from an international credit incident originating outside of the United States. Foreign nations, banks, and businesses have "levered up", or taken more risk, than we have. They too have chosen to lie.
This will hammer the stockmarket:
You have already seen nearly half of your money disappear.
You could see another half disappear - within days.
This is an implication of the graph I did on Sunday (see below), looking at the Dow adjusted for CPI inflation since 1928. A return to 4,500 points would seem to be reversion to the long-term norm - but to have it happen all at once, from its peak last October, is a scary prospect.
UPDATE Tyler concurs, with respect to the UK economy, because of our dependence on income from financial services and associated services:
"Brown's boom was built on a group of industries that are now facing an Almighty bust..."
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Throw the grenade, or put it in your pocket?
I was educated in the wrong things. Karl Denninger explains - in a way I struggle to understand fully - how the US government's schemes to support the banks must ultimately be financed by Treasury bonds on such a scale as to seriously damage their credit rating and pump up interest rates to a ruinous level.
This is a consequence of avoiding taking the right action, i.e. finding out who's insolvent and letting them go bust. I still remember Henry Paulson's panicky look when Congress threw out the bailout bill the first time.
Once you've pulled the pin out of a grenade, you can throw it, or you can hang on to it. Madly, it looks as though the government is following the latter course, and hopes to be able to handle the consequences.
UPDATE
Relevant to the above is Wat's resume of public debt history in the UK since World War II, showing how important it is NOT to get into debt, to fight inflation and control the finances.
This is a consequence of avoiding taking the right action, i.e. finding out who's insolvent and letting them go bust. I still remember Henry Paulson's panicky look when Congress threw out the bailout bill the first time.
Once you've pulled the pin out of a grenade, you can throw it, or you can hang on to it. Madly, it looks as though the government is following the latter course, and hopes to be able to handle the consequences.
UPDATE
Relevant to the above is Wat's resume of public debt history in the UK since World War II, showing how important it is NOT to get into debt, to fight inflation and control the finances.
A reason not to invest in pensions?
Argentina appears to be planning to seize private pension funds. Who is to say that, in extremis, it couldn't happen here? They're already taking tax on the dividends that were tax-free until 1997.
The Great Theft begins
I comment on The Great Depression of 2006:
Once inflation gets going it'll be Alice in Wonderland, I think. Real wages have to come down in relation to earnings in competitor countries, and house prices have to come down with respect to wages.
So whatever the nominal value, I think we in the West shall see a real depreciation in both houses and the stockmarket, plus a real decline in earnings relative to both consumer prices and foreign labour.
Am I wrong?
Once inflation gets going it'll be Alice in Wonderland, I think. Real wages have to come down in relation to earnings in competitor countries, and house prices have to come down with respect to wages.
So whatever the nominal value, I think we in the West shall see a real depreciation in both houses and the stockmarket, plus a real decline in earnings relative to both consumer prices and foreign labour.
Am I wrong?
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Do-it-yourself Dow prediction
I've battled Windows Vista to produce the above graph, which takes the Dow at the beginning of October each year from 1928 on and adjusts it for CPI.The red dot is where we were on Friday; some are saying it could hit 6,000 or 4,000, also indicated (adjusted for CPI as at the end of September 2008).
The question is, how much of the fantastic gain of the past 20 years or so will be undone, and over what period? Where would you say we "ought" to be? (Not that Mr Market cares, obviously.)
Connect up the lows of the early 30s and the 70s and extend the line, and you get what? An implied 2,500 or so. Connect up the highs of 1929 and the 50s and extend the line, and you end up about where we were at the start of this month, nudging 11,000.
UPDATE
Karl Denninger is now talking about the S&P 500 falling to 500 points, a level it first broke above in March 1995; this would mean a further c. 50% drop from its close on Friday.
And he gives his reasons (plausible to me) why the American economy is in worse shape to overcome the setback, than it was in the 1930s.
A note on abortion
We tried to watch a bit of "Sex and the City" last night, just to see why it's talked about. This episode was "Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda". The friends were, by turns, lying and boasting about their abortions. Apparently a baby wasn't in someone's "plan"; it's not as though these nitwits had any plans worth considering - for example, evidently they didn't plan to have a condom in their handbag. I've never seen a programme so louche and vapid. What can its makers think of us all?
I pass over the religious objections to abortion, and the arguments (to my mind, wholly specious and self-serving) about the humanity of the unborn. Do please spare me the hate mail.
But why is the political class so keen on it? And on the experimentation that continually encroaches on the right of human beings to live? (Don't tell me it will cure cancer and all the other things that make us mortal.)
Is it a financially-motivated plan to murder the poor, the deformed and the sick in their mother's wombs, so that they will not live to become benefit dependant and/or petty criminals? Is it about money? Has money become more real, more valid, than the people who earn and spend it?
Don't think it'll work anyway. A while back, I saw an interview with some serial shagger who didn't give a fig for any of his girlfriends, but there's one instinct he still retained. Remarking on his last, he said, "At least I got a kid out of her."
Abortion is a bloody and chaotic approach to sexuality and relationships. This study aims to correct some of the misunderstandings on the subject by both "conservative" and "liberals", and tends to support the greater use of contraception.
Will that work?
I pass over the religious objections to abortion, and the arguments (to my mind, wholly specious and self-serving) about the humanity of the unborn. Do please spare me the hate mail.
But why is the political class so keen on it? And on the experimentation that continually encroaches on the right of human beings to live? (Don't tell me it will cure cancer and all the other things that make us mortal.)
Is it a financially-motivated plan to murder the poor, the deformed and the sick in their mother's wombs, so that they will not live to become benefit dependant and/or petty criminals? Is it about money? Has money become more real, more valid, than the people who earn and spend it?
Don't think it'll work anyway. A while back, I saw an interview with some serial shagger who didn't give a fig for any of his girlfriends, but there's one instinct he still retained. Remarking on his last, he said, "At least I got a kid out of her."
Abortion is a bloody and chaotic approach to sexuality and relationships. This study aims to correct some of the misunderstandings on the subject by both "conservative" and "liberals", and tends to support the greater use of contraception.
Will that work?
How do we get out of this?
I'm trying to understand the situation, and it's worrying that many experts freely admit they don't understand, either. Here is the simplified picture I'm building up:Democratically-elected governments wanted their voters to get back the feelgood factor after the tech bubble burst and the stockmarket pretty much halved. So they undid the belts round the banks' waists and said, go eat.
The banks went at it like labradors at a full plate of Gravy Train, and got very fat on lending far too much money, with very few questions asked. Houses doubled in value and became the new stockmarket.
Then the bust, because whatever you treat like an investment will behave like one. Except houses are unlike shares: if you lose all your money on them you have nowhere to live, and this will make the losers very angry and vengeful. Also, housing is illiquid, which is bad news for banks, who can't put bricks and fridges in their vaults. And if the banks go bust their richer depositors (some of them Party contributors?) will get very upset, also the businesses that hold their balances in cash. This last is very important: a small fraction of bank accounts holds the majority of uninsured cash.
So now the "rescue". Billions - hundreds of billions - poured into the system. Who will pay the bill?
- Not the shareholders, since (in most cases) we didn't let the banks collapse.
- Not the majority of retail depositors - they have votes, and enough education to make trouble.
- Not the poor - they have nothing, and are more likely to vote for whoever keeps paying their benefits. That's if they vote at all, but non-voters will become very interested in democracy if their money runs out.
- Not the seriously rich - they have most of their personal wealth safely outside this thieving country and if annoyed, will not only move out but close businesses that employ many voters, which will dump smelly stuff on the heads of the Government and leave a big tax hole to boot.
I can see only two classes of juicy victims: taxpayers, and people who have saved up money.
Very few people understand that the combination of income tax plus National Insurance and employer's NI, is effectively a marginal tax rate on income of over 40% on all but the worst-paid. Raising direct taxation much more will only increase the incentive to give up work altogether, or to lay off employees. And there's only so much benefit to be gained by shipping-in zillions of low-paid foreign immigrants to replace them - that dodge is getting to be a public embarrassment, politically as well as economically.
Indirect taxation tends to be regressive, hitting the poorer worse (as a proportion of their income) - which implies a need to increase their benefits. Not impossible - there's a plan afoot for an extra levy on power bills, to finance heating costs for the poor. Doing it in this roundabout way preserves the illusion that we are a lower-tax economy, and appeals to the sneaky, surreptitious personality of the man currently running the country. There will be other subtle and economically suspect ways to raise tax, and Gordon Brown thought up many during his incumbency as Chancellor of the Exchequer - which, I think, has not yet ended.
And then there's the attack on savers. Means-testing is a good one, yielding a very high effective tax rate. Last time I looked, the combination of minimum income guarantee and savings credit for pensioners worked out to a 40% tax on poor pensioners who'd increased their pension income by voluntary savings.
Inflation is a fruity possibility. The government is going to have to borrow staggering amounts in coming years, to pay for the current bailout and future mass unemployment, so if the returns on its bonds can be lower than inflation it'll help the public finances a bit.
But who's got the money to sub our kleptomaniac Government? Maybe they won't bother to ask the people to trust them any more; maybe they'll just ask the Developing World to buy-in with their sovereign wealth funds. In other words, sell the country, piecemeal.
Isn't that what's happening? The younger generation will be taxed and worked half to death, the older ones will find they're not as wealthy as the illusory boom led them to believe, and meanwhile the New Pan-European Bureau-Aristocracy is selling us all to foreign powers and foreign businessmen, who do not have to answer to the electorate?
I must study the Highland Clearances, and the Flight of the Earls.
Stating the obvious
Recession is here, warns Item Club
UPDATE: Britain surrounded by water. More on the main news bulletin, next.
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Are trade deficits a good thing?
This is from a professional academic economist in America. Is he correct? Should we cheer up?
Here's a letter that I sent recently to the Washington Times:
In "Other economic numbers need attention" (Oct. 16), William Hawkins assumes that every dollar increase in America's trade deficit is a dollar increase in Americans’ debt. Not so. If Mr. Hawkins pays for a new car with $20,000 cash and then observes the car dealer stuffing that cash into a mattress, Mr. Hawkins's trade deficit with that dealer rises by $20,000 while his debt to that dealer rises by exactly $0.
More fundamentally, the trade deficit means that foreigners invest in the U.S. rather than spend all of their dollars on U.S. exports. If Mr. Hawkins mistakenly thinks such investments to be undesirable, I have good news for him: as Uncle Sam meddles much more aggressively in capital markets, foreign investors will be scared away. America will then be much more likely to run trade surpluses - just as it did for nine out of ten years of the greatly depressed 1930s.
Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Here's a letter that I sent recently to the Washington Times:
In "Other economic numbers need attention" (Oct. 16), William Hawkins assumes that every dollar increase in America's trade deficit is a dollar increase in Americans’ debt. Not so. If Mr. Hawkins pays for a new car with $20,000 cash and then observes the car dealer stuffing that cash into a mattress, Mr. Hawkins's trade deficit with that dealer rises by $20,000 while his debt to that dealer rises by exactly $0.
More fundamentally, the trade deficit means that foreigners invest in the U.S. rather than spend all of their dollars on U.S. exports. If Mr. Hawkins mistakenly thinks such investments to be undesirable, I have good news for him: as Uncle Sam meddles much more aggressively in capital markets, foreign investors will be scared away. America will then be much more likely to run trade surpluses - just as it did for nine out of ten years of the greatly depressed 1930s.
Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Dow 4,000?
We think we will see 10-12% unemployment, a 4-5% decline in GDP, and the equity markets could drop at least 70% from peak to trough.
J. Kyle Bass of Hayman Advisors, 14 October 2008. (htp: "Dearieme")
This source reckons LIBOR is out of sight, not because of counterparty worries, but because banks simply haven't got the money to lend.
Less pessimistically - just - George Slezak (quoted on Jesse) thinks the Dow could possibly go as low as 6,000.
J. Kyle Bass of Hayman Advisors, 14 October 2008. (htp: "Dearieme")
This source reckons LIBOR is out of sight, not because of counterparty worries, but because banks simply haven't got the money to lend.
Less pessimistically - just - George Slezak (quoted on Jesse) thinks the Dow could possibly go as low as 6,000.
Financial self-education
Watch Paul Grignon's "Money as Debt" video:
... and see here for Chris Martenson's online "Crash Course" (a condensed version of his "end of Money" seminar).
(htp: Yoyomo)
If these teach you anything, please pass them on!
... and see here for Chris Martenson's online "Crash Course" (a condensed version of his "end of Money" seminar).
(htp: Yoyomo)
If these teach you anything, please pass them on!
The importance of correctly predicting liquidity movements
A hedge fund manager (Andrew Lahde) says farewell to the industry (extracts):
Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund), was quoted as saying, “What I have learned about the hedge fund business is that I hate it.” I could not agree more with that statement. I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America.
I will no longer manage money for other people or institutions. I have enough of my own wealth to manage. Some people, who think they have arrived at a reasonable estimate of my net worth, might be surprised that I would call it quits with such a small war chest. That is fine; I am content with my rewards. Moreover, I will let others try to amass nine, ten or eleven figure net worths. Meanwhile, their lives suck. Appointments back to back, booked solid for the next three months, they look forward to their two week vacation in January during which they will likely be glued to their Blackberries or other such devices. What is the point? ... Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life.
...I truly do not have a strong opinion about any market right now, other than to say that things will continue to get worse for some time, probably years. I am content sitting on the sidelines and waiting. After all, sitting and waiting is how we made money from the subprime debacle. I now have time to repair my health, which was destroyed by the stress I layered onto myself over the past two years, as well as my entire life – where I had to compete for spaces in universities and graduate schools, jobs and assets under management – with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not. May meritocracy be part of a new form of government, which needs to be established.
On the issue of the U.S. Government, I would like to make a modest proposal. First, I point out the obvious flaws, whereby legislation was repeatedly brought forth to Congress over the past eight years, which would have reigned in the predatory lending practices of now mostly defunctinstitutions. These institutions regularly filled the coffers of both parties in return for voting down all of this legislation designed to protect the common citizen. This is an outrage, yet no one seems to know or care about it. Since Thomas Jefferson and Adam Smith passed, I would argue that there has been a dearth of worthy philosophers in this country, at least ones focused on improving government. Capitalism worked for two hundred years, but times change, and systems become corrupt. George Soros, a man of staggering wealth, has stated that he would like to be remembered as a philosopher. My suggestion is that this great man start and sponsor a forum for great minds to come together to create a new system of government that truly represents the common man’s interest, while at the same time creating rewards great enough to attract the best and brightest minds to serve in government roles without having to rely on corruption to further their interests or lifestyles. This forum could be similar to the one used to create the operating system, Linux, which competes with Microsoft’s near monopoly. I believe there is an answer, but for now the system is clearly broken...
(htp: Michael Panzner)
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
We're back to last Thursday
The Dow has closed at 8,577.91, 733.08 off its start today. My amateur trend-drawing suggests that it's now back into its midstream; but then there's often an overshoot.
However, for those who do have money and also a long view, maybe it's not a bad price.
However, for those who do have money and also a long view, maybe it's not a bad price.
Deflation hasn't happened yet; interest rates to rise, eventually
Jesse argues that we're not yet in a deflation, technically speaking; it's "the transfer of wealth from one asset class to another". So the money is merely changing pockets.
But after that, he expects (as I suggested yesterday) gold to rise sharply: "the move in gold will obtain explosive momentum from which a major rally leg will occur as the banks lose control." The euro, too, he thinks; and oil will stay high. So he concludes that when the pent-up liquidity starts to flow in the system, the US will have to raise interest rates to prevent a relative decline in the dollar.
But after that, he expects (as I suggested yesterday) gold to rise sharply: "the move in gold will obtain explosive momentum from which a major rally leg will occur as the banks lose control." The euro, too, he thinks; and oil will stay high. So he concludes that when the pent-up liquidity starts to flow in the system, the US will have to raise interest rates to prevent a relative decline in the dollar.
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