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Sunday, November 02, 2008

Dow 4,900 - sometime?

I'm still working on looking at the Dow in real (CPI-adjusted) terms. Meanwhile, note that in two previous cycles, the Dow dropped to a third of its former peak: from 15 to 5, from 30 to 10 (see red dots).

If history repeats itself, then in real terms the Dow would again lose two-thirds of its value, from 66 to 22, which considering last autumn's peak would imply an ultimate low (if it happened all at once, tomorrow) of about 4,900 points.

But in the previous cases, the process took years to complete, and I would expect it to be a long affair this time, too. The Dow may not hit this 4,900 low in nominal terms.

Continuing this theme, may I draw your attention to the letter I emailed to The Spectator today?

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