There are so many proposals to improve the world, and such a short supply of humility and plain, ordinary fear of change. Take spelling, for example, and read this logically-refined paragraph:
Kontinuing cis proses, year after year, we would eventuali hav a reali sensibl writen langug. By 1975, wi ventyur tu sei, cer wud bi no mor uv ces teribli trublsum difikultis, wic no tu leters usd to indikeit ce seim nois, and laikwais no tui noises riten wic ce seim leter. Even Mr. Yaw,wi beliv, wud be hapi in ce nog cat his drims fainali keim tru.
For the whole thing, click here. (There are other versions doing the rounds, since the idea is so good.) (htp: Paddington)
Friday, February 06, 2009
Agreement is not the same as 50:50 compromise
For a technical discussion of how we should adjust our opinions scientifically in debate with others, see Overcoming Bias. This follows an earlier post on the impossibility of disagreeing unless you (rather unreasonably) assume the other person is somehow misinformed, wrong-headed or stupid.
It does look very valuable, though I'd be grateful for a clearer explanation, notwithstanding the participants evidently think they've already given it.
There's a story about Einstein from his time at Princeton. In the lecture room, he discussed his ideas in free-ranging talks, which were so revolutionary and complex that the students begged him to put some formulae on the board so they could follow him properly. He promised he would, and next time gave another dense, extempore peroration, at the end of which he said, "It's as easy as two and two make four". He then walked to the board and wrote "2 + 2 = 4". That's mathematicians for you.
It does look very valuable, though I'd be grateful for a clearer explanation, notwithstanding the participants evidently think they've already given it.
There's a story about Einstein from his time at Princeton. In the lecture room, he discussed his ideas in free-ranging talks, which were so revolutionary and complex that the students begged him to put some formulae on the board so they could follow him properly. He promised he would, and next time gave another dense, extempore peroration, at the end of which he said, "It's as easy as two and two make four". He then walked to the board and wrote "2 + 2 = 4". That's mathematicians for you.
Go drugs!
Gary Becker thinks we should legalize and tax drugs. Look at how this approach has decimated alcohol and tobacco usage, for example.
And the joys to be had from drugs! As the Moroccan saying goes,"A pipe of khif before breakfast is worth a hundred camels in the courtyard." Though I think the Devils' Dictionary needs updating: we need slogans like, "A six-pack of wife-beater in the morning is worth a hundred business calls", "Sixty a day is worth death before sixty", "Dropping a tab is worth the risk of grinning at the backs of your hands for the rest of your life."
So what's it to be, Falstaff or the pain-in-the-mule Puritans?
I think it's to do with work. In the old days, the ordinary person couldn't afford (financially or otherwise) to be almost constantly intoxicated; now, most of us are richer than Roman Emperors: central heating, carpets, hot water, ice cream, multimedia entertainment 24/7, no starvation if you don't work. Once, the Tree of Idleness was for the few surviving old men, who were past it; now, while we still have The Energy of Slaves (ie. machines and fossil fuels) to do the hard stuff for us, we don't know what to do with ourselves.
Freedom makes you fall apart.
And the joys to be had from drugs! As the Moroccan saying goes,"A pipe of khif before breakfast is worth a hundred camels in the courtyard." Though I think the Devils' Dictionary needs updating: we need slogans like, "A six-pack of wife-beater in the morning is worth a hundred business calls", "Sixty a day is worth death before sixty", "Dropping a tab is worth the risk of grinning at the backs of your hands for the rest of your life."
So what's it to be, Falstaff or the pain-in-the-mule Puritans?
I think it's to do with work. In the old days, the ordinary person couldn't afford (financially or otherwise) to be almost constantly intoxicated; now, most of us are richer than Roman Emperors: central heating, carpets, hot water, ice cream, multimedia entertainment 24/7, no starvation if you don't work. Once, the Tree of Idleness was for the few surviving old men, who were past it; now, while we still have The Energy of Slaves (ie. machines and fossil fuels) to do the hard stuff for us, we don't know what to do with ourselves.
Freedom makes you fall apart.
What goes up
Todd Harrison of Minyanville is predicting a big stockmarket rally soon (htp: Kirk Report). Others (Elliott Wave followers, for example) have suggested this will happen, but as part of a longer pattern of overall decline. In other words, a "bear market rally".My feeling? This is (a) a market for bold day traders, and (b) an opportunity for some less adventurous types to cash-out at a less dismal price than they've been offered recently. In fact, I think this situational psychology is part of the process that will help limit the rise and confirm the downward trend.
Restoration, not revolt
"What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing," says Lord Darlington in Wilde's Lady Windermere's Fan. That perfectly describes the man who doesn't understand inflation.
Inflation is The Mogambo Guru's bete noire, and he gives us another comedy riff on that today. His principal cure for it is gold, the stock in trade of another ranter, Jim Willie, who sees the price of the yellow metal breaking out in various currencies (it's soared in sterling, for example).
Both men habitually connect gold, the US Constitution and the decayed professional morals of the politico-judicial elite, and try to stimulate the people to restore the old, good order. In short, they are prophets, and there's plenty more out there at this time.
For it is a sign of societal stress that ranters, dreamers and revolutionaries begin to drag out their soap boxes and declaim to passers-by. We had it in the Old Testament, the English Civil War, the American Revolutionary War and most other times that the world was turned upside down.
If buttercups buzzed after the bee
If boats were on land, churches on sea
If ponies rode men and grass ate the cows
And cats should be chased to holes by the mouse
If the mammas sold their babies to the gypsies for half a crown
Summer were spring and the t’other way round
Then all the world would be upside down
There is a difference between civil war, and the revolt of colonies from their distant parent. Having said that, the crisis is now cracking the cement between the States and the Federal Government, as we see in New Hampshire and elsewhere. America, remember history and avoid secessionary talk.
The results of revolution are rarely pretty. Norman Cohn's famous book , about the horrifying aftermath of prophet episodes in the Middle Ages, shows that once the mix is brought to the boil, it becomes very volatile. The outcome is often not what the prophet expected; and always, the people suffer. Rather than overthrow our rulers, it would be far better (if possible) to make them see the danger to us all of continuing their course, and have them turn back.
But can they see it? Do they know the difference between price and value? Will they permit the theft of real wealth by inflation? Or is it, worse still, their intention?
The best we can hope for, is that our leaders are not cynics, and so do not need correction from dangerous idealists.
Inflation is The Mogambo Guru's bete noire, and he gives us another comedy riff on that today. His principal cure for it is gold, the stock in trade of another ranter, Jim Willie, who sees the price of the yellow metal breaking out in various currencies (it's soared in sterling, for example).
Both men habitually connect gold, the US Constitution and the decayed professional morals of the politico-judicial elite, and try to stimulate the people to restore the old, good order. In short, they are prophets, and there's plenty more out there at this time.
For it is a sign of societal stress that ranters, dreamers and revolutionaries begin to drag out their soap boxes and declaim to passers-by. We had it in the Old Testament, the English Civil War, the American Revolutionary War and most other times that the world was turned upside down.
If buttercups buzzed after the bee
If boats were on land, churches on sea
If ponies rode men and grass ate the cows
And cats should be chased to holes by the mouse
If the mammas sold their babies to the gypsies for half a crown
Summer were spring and the t’other way round
Then all the world would be upside down
There is a difference between civil war, and the revolt of colonies from their distant parent. Having said that, the crisis is now cracking the cement between the States and the Federal Government, as we see in New Hampshire and elsewhere. America, remember history and avoid secessionary talk.
The results of revolution are rarely pretty. Norman Cohn's famous book , about the horrifying aftermath of prophet episodes in the Middle Ages, shows that once the mix is brought to the boil, it becomes very volatile. The outcome is often not what the prophet expected; and always, the people suffer. Rather than overthrow our rulers, it would be far better (if possible) to make them see the danger to us all of continuing their course, and have them turn back.
But can they see it? Do they know the difference between price and value? Will they permit the theft of real wealth by inflation? Or is it, worse still, their intention?
The best we can hope for, is that our leaders are not cynics, and so do not need correction from dangerous idealists.
Thursday, February 05, 2009
Stock market could halve again - more evidence
I've been following this alarming idea recently. Now Russell Napier chips in, citing Tobin's Q as a measure to predict a further 55% stockmarket decline within the next five years (htp: Financial Sense).
I had a look at Tobin's Q last April. Are we coming to some gloomy consensus - except for Karl Denninger, who fears it could be worse?
I had a look at Tobin's Q last April. Are we coming to some gloomy consensus - except for Karl Denninger, who fears it could be worse?
Learned fools
Forbes suggests that college education can be financially ruinous. The association of education with wealth only works when both are in limited supply, otherwise the Hedge Schools would have made Irish peasants rich. A silk hat does not make you a Bradford millionaire.
A doctor friend often used to quote some factoid that if the average doctor had left school at 16 and become employed in some capacity suited to his abilities, his hard-studying medical counterpart would never catch up in terms of total lifetime income earned.
I've heard it said that after the Revolution, the French trained thousands more lawyers, in order to devalue the profession.
Man to the plough;
Wife to the cow;
Girl to the yarn;
Boy to the barn;
And your rent will be netted.
Man tally-ho;
Miss piano;
Wife silk and satin;
Boy Greek and Latin;
And you'll all be Gazetted.
A doctor friend often used to quote some factoid that if the average doctor had left school at 16 and become employed in some capacity suited to his abilities, his hard-studying medical counterpart would never catch up in terms of total lifetime income earned.
I've heard it said that after the Revolution, the French trained thousands more lawyers, in order to devalue the profession.
Man to the plough;
Wife to the cow;
Girl to the yarn;
Boy to the barn;
And your rent will be netted.
Man tally-ho;
Miss piano;
Wife silk and satin;
Boy Greek and Latin;
And you'll all be Gazetted.
Global monetary inflation and the threat to peace
Last week, I suggested that we could be entering an era of competitive currency devaluation. Now, Mish sees it happening in Russia, Mexico, Indonesia - and hints of intervention in Japan. The Canadian National Post predicts a drop in the US dollar, too (htp: Jesse).
Can the Euro -already strained by member countries moving in different directions - take this pressure? A friend told me recently of an old restaurant incident involving people he knew, where first one "did a runner", then another, so that the last man left at the table was stuck with the whole bill. This is a game that punishes the virtuous.
Gold is supposed to be a haven in such conditions, but is already above its long-term post-1971 trend, as I show here. So the bold investor might buy in now, knowing it's high but hoping it'll go higher (or fearing that other things will go lower still). Others say silver, or oil, or agricultural land. "The best lack all conviction, while the worst / Are full of passionate intensity."
These are tricky times. As in revolutions generally, it's hard to see which faction will be victorious, but loss, injustice and confusion are certain: "we are here as on a darkling plain / Swept with confused alarms of struggle and flight / Where ignorant armies clash by night."
This may seem over-dramatic; but when money ceases to be dependable and deadly dull, everything else becomes much too exciting. If the middle classes suddenly find their savings wiped out by inflation, their assets generally devalued and their businesses and employment under threat, watch out.
Can the Euro -already strained by member countries moving in different directions - take this pressure? A friend told me recently of an old restaurant incident involving people he knew, where first one "did a runner", then another, so that the last man left at the table was stuck with the whole bill. This is a game that punishes the virtuous.
Gold is supposed to be a haven in such conditions, but is already above its long-term post-1971 trend, as I show here. So the bold investor might buy in now, knowing it's high but hoping it'll go higher (or fearing that other things will go lower still). Others say silver, or oil, or agricultural land. "The best lack all conviction, while the worst / Are full of passionate intensity."
These are tricky times. As in revolutions generally, it's hard to see which faction will be victorious, but loss, injustice and confusion are certain: "we are here as on a darkling plain / Swept with confused alarms of struggle and flight / Where ignorant armies clash by night."
This may seem over-dramatic; but when money ceases to be dependable and deadly dull, everything else becomes much too exciting. If the middle classes suddenly find their savings wiped out by inflation, their assets generally devalued and their businesses and employment under threat, watch out.
Civil liberties in Britain further eroded
Taking a photograph of a public servant, even if it's to record his wrongdoing, is to be illegal. That's if the photograph is 'likely to be useful to a person committing or preparing an act of terrorism'. How could you prove it wasn't?
Nazi comparisons are horrid cliches; yet my mother watched Nazism take hold as she grew up in rural East Prussia. Tyranny advances step by step, and one of its most useful allies is a natural disinclination to believe where it is heading.
Another ally of the tyrant is woolly language used in law - the freedom of the individual is in the precision of the language that grants powers to his incomparably mightier government.
Nazi comparisons are horrid cliches; yet my mother watched Nazism take hold as she grew up in rural East Prussia. Tyranny advances step by step, and one of its most useful allies is a natural disinclination to believe where it is heading.
Another ally of the tyrant is woolly language used in law - the freedom of the individual is in the precision of the language that grants powers to his incomparably mightier government.
Wednesday, February 04, 2009
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
Shoot the B******s
A piece by the columnist and Nobel-prize winning economist Paul Krugman: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/02/opinion/02krugman.html?_r=1&em
To me, it gives a strong argument for temporary state ownership.
To me, it gives a strong argument for temporary state ownership.
Shares: why bother?
The Contrarian Investor raises an issue I've been pondering recently: in today's financial climate, are stocks and shares old hat? They're only a market in what companies are willing to let the public invest.
If I were a rich entrepreneur who'd been smart enough to get into cash a year or two ago, I'd be looking to take my company back into private ownership, or buy another for a suitcaseful. Who wants to be told what to do by shareholders with bees in their bonnets, institutional investors looking to maximise profits like, NOW, and other goons? It's like being in a three-legged race with the fat kid.
Venture capital - is that the place to be?
If I were a rich entrepreneur who'd been smart enough to get into cash a year or two ago, I'd be looking to take my company back into private ownership, or buy another for a suitcaseful. Who wants to be told what to do by shareholders with bees in their bonnets, institutional investors looking to maximise profits like, NOW, and other goons? It's like being in a three-legged race with the fat kid.
Venture capital - is that the place to be?
Monday, February 02, 2009
IN- vs. DE- and an upcoming opportunity
Jesse echoes my hunch: deflation now, inflation soon-ish, with high interest rates for a bit. At that latter point, get your annuity and /or bonds, and benefits as rates subside. A guess, but it's comforting to see wise owls coming to the same conclusion.
You now have our investment gameplan for what is likely to be the rest of Jesse's life.
No, no "Jesse"; live long and prosper.
You now have our investment gameplan for what is likely to be the rest of Jesse's life.
No, no "Jesse"; live long and prosper.
Number crunching - fractional reserve banking
Supposedly, banks lend 10 times (or more) what they have on deposit. Yet in June last year, it was estimated that total UK consumer borrowing (mortgages, loans and credit cards) stood at £1.444 trillion, and in October savings and deposits reportedly totalled £1.17 trillion - a ratio of c. 1.2 to 1.
By contrast, total U.S. household debt at the beginning of last year was estimated at $14.4 trillion, and in October the Mises Institute reckoned the True Money Supply to be $5.5 trillion, a ratio of around 2.6 to 1.
On the face of it, the American consumer is in twice as dire a state as his British counterpart.
I expect that's an oversimplification - but simplicity is in very short supply. I'd like to understand more, but I can't find reliable, user-friendly data on where all the money and debt is. There's far too much secrecy, complexity and obfuscation in this business.
By contrast, total U.S. household debt at the beginning of last year was estimated at $14.4 trillion, and in October the Mises Institute reckoned the True Money Supply to be $5.5 trillion, a ratio of around 2.6 to 1.
On the face of it, the American consumer is in twice as dire a state as his British counterpart.
I expect that's an oversimplification - but simplicity is in very short supply. I'd like to understand more, but I can't find reliable, user-friendly data on where all the money and debt is. There's far too much secrecy, complexity and obfuscation in this business.
Gold overpriced?
Gold's price since President Nixon closed the gold window on Aug 15, 1971 has been generally higher than in the era up to then, but still very variable. If we adjust it for inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the USA, and take September 1971 as being a "1", the mean and median values since then are of the order of 2.8 - 2.9.Currently the gold/CPI ratio is about 4, which is somewhat above trend, though nowhere near the spikes of the early 80s. So I'd regard gold's price as a bit high for getting in now, unless you're speculating, which is not my game. But if you got in 9 years ago, well done, and I guess you'll want to hold for some time yet.
Sunday, February 01, 2009
British jobs for foreign workers
Wanted:738 foreign (EEC domiciled) labourers, for casual work in comfortable and extremely well-appointed factory premises. Existing postholders need not apply.
Why has this contract become available?
We are seeking workers who will perform their duties solely for the official remuneration offered, without the payment of additional incentives from third parties, such as "consultancy fees" etc. The management feels that it is important to make a fresh start in order to establish a new working culture, without contamination from previous elements.
Duties
Reading and revising proposed laws. A good command of English is essential; it is therefore expected that applicants will have been educated abroad.
Legal revisions must be conducted solely and entirely on the merits of each case, for the benefit of the nation as a whole, without fear or favour.
Days worked per year / holidays
This varies, but in 2007-2008 the number of days the factory was open was 148.
Hours of work
From the following start times until 10 - 11 p.m., but sometimes later and occasionally throughout the night:
Mondays and Tuesdays from 2.30pm
Wednesdays from 3pm
Thursdays from 11am
some Fridays (10 in 2008 - 2009); on these days, from 10am
On average, 6 hours 46 minutes per session (in 2007-2008).
Thus, hours worked per year = c. 1,002, equivalent to less than 21 weeks at the EU maximum of 48 hours/week.
BUT adjusted for average attendance figures (see below), actual time worked per worker in 2007-2008 was the equivalent of 11 weeks 2 days per year.
Sick leave
N/A. But attendance is voluntary, and average attendance in the last 3 years was c. 54%.
Minimum attendance by the workforce as a whole is 3 workers per shift (30 on days when the product is due to roll off the assembly line).
Job security
Extremely good. Under current terms, workers cannot relinquish their position once appointed, even if they wish to; but they may take indefinite leave of absence without notice or permission. One current worker has stayed away from the workplace since 2001.
Pay
£335.50 per shift, plus other expenses.
Outside employment when not in attendance at the factory is permitted, provided that it has no bearing or influence whatever on the worker's primary duties at Lawmaking plc.
Important note
Applicants must be prepared to endure some initial unpopularity from protectionist malcontents (many apparently disguised as Santa Claus), but may be assured of the full protection of the law.
Davos: inaugural address
Sorry, I keep getting it confused with Davros. One has a plan to take over the world with the aid of heavily-protected, ultra-aggressive, lunatic invertebrates, and the other...
DIY? GSI, say I.
Doing the rounds on the Internet...
DRILL PRESS: A tall upright machine useful for suddenly snatching flat metal bar stock out of your hands so that it smacks you in the chest and flings your beer across the room, denting the
freshly-painted project which you had carefully set in the corner where nothing could get to it.
WIRE WHEEL: Cleans paint off bolts and then throws them somewhere under the workbench with the speed of light. Also removes fingerprints and hard-earned calluses from fingers in about the time it takes you to say, 'Oh sh*t '
ELECTRIC HAND DRILL: Normally used for spinning pop rivets in their holes until you die of old age.
SKILL SAW: A portable cutting tool used to make studs too short.
PLIERS: Used to round off bolt heads. Sometimes used in the creation of blood-blisters.
BELT SANDER: An electric sanding tool commonly used to convert minor touch-up jobs into major refinishing jobs.
HACKSAW: One of a family of cutting tools built on the Ouija board principle. It transforms human energy into a crooked, unpredictable motion, and the more you attempt to influence its course, the more dismal your future becomes.
VISE-GRIPS: Generally used after pliers to completely round off bolt heads. If nothing else is available, they can also be used to transfer intense welding heat to the palm of your hand.
OXYACETYLENE TORCH: Used almost entirely forsetting various flammable objects in your workshop on fire. Also handy for igniting the grease inside the wheel hub out of which you want to remove a bearing race.
TABLE SAW: A large stationary power tool commonly used to launch wood projectiles for testing wall integrity.
HYDRAULIC FLOOR JACK: Used for lowering an automobile to the ground after you have installed your new brake shoes, trapping the jack handle firmly under the bumper.
BAND SAW: A large stationary power saw primarily used by most shops to cut good aluminum sheet into smaller pieces that more easily fit into the trash can after you cut on the inside of the line instead of the outside edge.
TWO-TON ENGINE HOIST: A tool for testing the maximum tensile strength of everything you forgot to disconnect.
PHILLIPS SCREWDRIVER: Normally used to stab the vacuum seals under lids or for opening old-style paper-and-tin oil cans and splashing oil on your shirt; but can also be used, as the name implies, to strip out Phillips screw heads.
STRAIGHT SCREWDRIVER: A tool for opening paint cans. Sometimes used to convert common slotted screws into non-removable screws and butchering your palms.
PRY BAR: A tool used to crumple the metal surrounding that clip or bracket you needed to remove in order to replace a 50 cent part.
HOSE CUTTER: A tool used to make hoses too short.
HAMMER: Originally employed as a weapon of war, the hammer nowadays is used as a kind of divining rod to locate the most expensive parts adjacent the object we are trying to hit.
UTILITY KNIFE: Used to open and slice through the contents of cardboard cartons delivered to your front door; works particularly well on contents such as seats, vinyl records, liquids in plastic bottles, collector magazines, refund cheques, and rubber or plastic parts. Especially useful for slicing work clothes, but only while in use.
DAMM-IT TOOL: Any handy tool that you grab and throw across the garage while yelling 'DAMM-IT' at the top of your lungs. It is also, most often, the next tool that you will need.
DRILL PRESS: A tall upright machine useful for suddenly snatching flat metal bar stock out of your hands so that it smacks you in the chest and flings your beer across the room, denting the
freshly-painted project which you had carefully set in the corner where nothing could get to it.
WIRE WHEEL: Cleans paint off bolts and then throws them somewhere under the workbench with the speed of light. Also removes fingerprints and hard-earned calluses from fingers in about the time it takes you to say, 'Oh sh*t '
ELECTRIC HAND DRILL: Normally used for spinning pop rivets in their holes until you die of old age.
SKILL SAW: A portable cutting tool used to make studs too short.
PLIERS: Used to round off bolt heads. Sometimes used in the creation of blood-blisters.
BELT SANDER: An electric sanding tool commonly used to convert minor touch-up jobs into major refinishing jobs.
HACKSAW: One of a family of cutting tools built on the Ouija board principle. It transforms human energy into a crooked, unpredictable motion, and the more you attempt to influence its course, the more dismal your future becomes.
VISE-GRIPS: Generally used after pliers to completely round off bolt heads. If nothing else is available, they can also be used to transfer intense welding heat to the palm of your hand.
OXYACETYLENE TORCH: Used almost entirely forsetting various flammable objects in your workshop on fire. Also handy for igniting the grease inside the wheel hub out of which you want to remove a bearing race.
TABLE SAW: A large stationary power tool commonly used to launch wood projectiles for testing wall integrity.
HYDRAULIC FLOOR JACK: Used for lowering an automobile to the ground after you have installed your new brake shoes, trapping the jack handle firmly under the bumper.
BAND SAW: A large stationary power saw primarily used by most shops to cut good aluminum sheet into smaller pieces that more easily fit into the trash can after you cut on the inside of the line instead of the outside edge.
TWO-TON ENGINE HOIST: A tool for testing the maximum tensile strength of everything you forgot to disconnect.
PHILLIPS SCREWDRIVER: Normally used to stab the vacuum seals under lids or for opening old-style paper-and-tin oil cans and splashing oil on your shirt; but can also be used, as the name implies, to strip out Phillips screw heads.
STRAIGHT SCREWDRIVER: A tool for opening paint cans. Sometimes used to convert common slotted screws into non-removable screws and butchering your palms.
PRY BAR: A tool used to crumple the metal surrounding that clip or bracket you needed to remove in order to replace a 50 cent part.
HOSE CUTTER: A tool used to make hoses too short.
HAMMER: Originally employed as a weapon of war, the hammer nowadays is used as a kind of divining rod to locate the most expensive parts adjacent the object we are trying to hit.
UTILITY KNIFE: Used to open and slice through the contents of cardboard cartons delivered to your front door; works particularly well on contents such as seats, vinyl records, liquids in plastic bottles, collector magazines, refund cheques, and rubber or plastic parts. Especially useful for slicing work clothes, but only while in use.
DAMM-IT TOOL: Any handy tool that you grab and throw across the garage while yelling 'DAMM-IT' at the top of your lungs. It is also, most often, the next tool that you will need.
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