Hussman's view: white water

John Hussman is an American fund manager and takes pains to show that his judgments are carefully weighed; so his warnings are unlikely to be Chicken Little squawks:

In July, he looked at historical "awful times to invest", and found that July 2007 fits the same criteria. The 10-year outlook for the US investor is not attractive:

Presently, the probable total return on the S&P 500 over the coming decade ranges between -4% and 5% annually, with the most likely outcome in the low single digits.

More recently (November 12), he's considered many indicators and concluded:

I expect that a U.S. economic recession is immediately ahead.

(highlights mine)

This week (November 19), he remarks that much of the money apparently being pumped into the economic system is simply a rollover of earlier loans coming to maturity: the net increase is very small compared to the total oustanding, and so the rate of monetary inflation is slowing. He quotes Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs as saying (in effect) that if souring subprime debt hits financial institutions directly, they are likely to call in loans in order to preserve the ratio between their lending and their reserves, which in turn will slow the economy further.

What should investors do? He quotes the view of famous investment manager Jack Bogle:

"I would say do nothing – ride it out, if your asset allocation is right. The bonds in your portfolio and the long-term growth of businesses will bail you out. Unfortunately 80% of the market is speculators now, not investors. What would I say to the speculator? I would say I'm nervous and I might even say get out.”

So I guess it's the usual couple of points: are you in for the long term, or trying to make a quick killing? And where are you on the 25:75 Benjamin Graham bond-equity balance?

Gambling with more than you've got

The world's economy is now like a huge gambling table, and the players collectively are betting several times the value of their assets.

FT Alphaville (thanks to Michael Panzner for the alert) gives the above graphs to show how much is at stake in the business of mutual guarantees known as "over the counter" (OTC) derivatives: over $500 trillion. That's not all: Wikipedia's article (last link shown) explains that there is also a separate class of Exchange-Traded derivatives.

These sums are quite unimaginable. But we can compare them with other figures: according to FT.com, the total value of the US and European stockmarkets in March this year was a mere $31 trillion. Wikipedia estimates that the total value of all stocks and bonds in the world is less than $100 trillion.

Our daily lives stand on a thin crust over this boiling financial melange. We'd sure better hope that the experts haven't bitten off more than they can chew.

(Picture source)

US debt - projected

The US Government's own (2006) long-range forecast shows an expected sixfold growth in Federal debt held by the public, expressed as a percentage of GDP, by 2075. The table above is in a section frankly entitled "An unsustainable path" (pp. 208-209).

Three card monte

(picture source)

Frank Barbera points out that Argentina's economy put itself back on track by devaluing the currency. Now,

... the place is booming, crime is way down, and foreign capital has flooded in...

All you had to do was ensure that you weren't the mark in that game:

... someone who was able to place money in precious metals avoided the collapse of the local currency, would now have that previous purchasing power intact, and could have used it in the last few years to buy back many fold depreciated assets in Argentina.

Baby boom, baby bust

Percentages of the population above age 65 in selected countries

Clif Droke (SafeHaven, yesterday) summarises Edward Cheung's work, which relates the Kondratieff cycle to demographics. The most spoiled generation in history is entering its retirement phase and starting to draw on its accumulated wealth, so creating a growing undertow in the financial tide.

Liberty Dollar video wall

Can freedom be designed?

In the late 1970s, I read a book by Stafford Beer called "Designing Freedom". Unlike other management theory texts I've seen, it used cartoons and humour, though it also occasionally used language seemingly designed to cut out the layman - one gets the impression that business professors can be a sort of Glass Bead Game hermetic elite.

And I've just been trying to watch a lecture by him, recorded on video in 1974 and released on the internet by UMIST's archive (here). Maybe it's my computer, but the material is streaming in stits and farts; nevertheless, it's very interesting indeed.

Beer was invited to Chile to set up a system for the Allende government, to help manage the economy of a strangely-shaped and very diverse country. The project was never completed, since Allende was overthrown within a couple of years, but the ideas outlined in this video and the book I've mentioned were very far ahead of their time and probably somewhat ahead of ours, too.

At a time when computers were much less powerful than today, he was advocating their use to gather and crucially, filter, information in a way that allows decision-makers to make timely, well-informed (but crucially again, not over-informed) interventions. In the Chilean experiment, a system of telex machines across the country fed real-time data to a central (the only) computer, which then fed back decision-making alerts at every level from factory to government ministry.

Two things stand out for me:

1. You don't need all the information: you need to know of any significant change. (I have heard that toads only see likely prey if it moves, not when it is sitting still.)

2. You need relevant data fast, otherwise there is a danger that, owing to information time-lag, you will make exactly the wrong move. Beer said that this was a principal cause of the stop-go British economy. In today's context, maybe that's why the economy and the stockmarkets gyrate so wildly even now.

Beer emphatically denies that his system was intended to centralise power into a dictatorship, though in "Designing Freedom" he certainly sees its potential for tyranny. Instead, the model is a set of feedback systems akin to those that living creatures need to survive and to adapt to a changing environment.

Another point I've always remembered - and I think I must have seen it in another of his books, for I can't find it here - it that both resources and decision-making must be devolved, for maximum effectiveness. You give Department X a budget and a set of objectives, and let that department work out how best to use the resources to fulfil its brief. This is a lesson that the current micro-managing British regime has apparently never understood.

He was a real visionary - look at the contrasting pair of cartoons from the book, and remember that it was published 33 years ago. And buy it, as I have just done.

(By the way, my comments are not unduly influenced by the fact that he gave up most of his material possessions and moved to western Wales, devoting himself to art and poetry.)

Assume crash positions

Paul Lamont (SafeHaven yesterday) gives sound tips on how to prepare for a serious financial crisis.

One of the points he makes is that in the USA, the Securities Investor Protection Corporation may have no more than $3.4 billion available to protect depositors' losses, compared with anything up to half a trillion potential losses in the current credit crisis.

Here in the UK, depositors are protected by the government, up to a point; but who knows what the government might do if seriously financially challenged.

Red screens

It all looked a bit woeful yesterday, but I stick with my prediction: the market will go up towards the end of the year, so that dealers can suck out a last-chance bonus. For perhaps slightly different reasons, Bloomberg reports a similar forecast.

A question

Do people actually want to be happy?

The name's Bond, Negative-Return Bond

Adrian Ash reports that pessimism has made bond prices soar, which in turn means they're a terrible investment for inflation-dodgers. He gives this graph:

Naturally he thinks this boosts the argument for gold, but I'd suggest that remorseless monetary inflation simply means that we need to store our excess wealth in a diversity of things. We just need to be careful not to pay too much, as the waves of excess liquidity temporarily make this or that asset bob high above its longer-term trend.

Winter is the growing season

Following my search for predictable stockmarket patterns ("Real Cycles"), Joseph Dancy analyses the phenomenon of winter season investment growth. It seems that "sell in May and go away" is still good advice. Dancy quotes Mark Hulbert:

[The research] implies that simply going to cash between May Day and Halloween will have only minor impact on long-term returns while dramatically reducing risk -- a winning combination that would show up in a much improved risk-adjusted performance.

Until everybody does it, of course. But what are the chances of that happening?

Off motif

Some music education howlers - though to me they seem inspired...

An opera is a song of bigly size.

A harp is a nude piano.

Find more here: Missouri School Music Newsletter

Picture(s) source

"Common Sense"

Guh-nomes

I read somewhere that in Harold Wilson's 1956 attack on Swiss bankers' alleged foreign currency manipulations, he pronounced "gnomes" with a hard G, perhaps for oratorical emphasis. Now Jim Willie thinks these shy creatures can be seen popping their heads above ground level again:

The Swiss want power to return to central Europe. Recall that the owners of the US Federal Reserve are reported to reside in both Switzerland and London, in more control of US monetary policy (if not political leaders) than people realize.

He thinks the Swiss franc is set for a rise.

Speaking of which, I speculated some while ago that Warren Buffett's currency speculation may have been in the "swissy", perhaps as a hedge against possible forex movements while negotiating a bid for the Zurich financial group. Not that I'd put any money on either of those horses, of course.

So much of European history is connected with mining: Martin Luther and Protestantism generally - maybe because digging out wealth with your own hands gave you a certain independence from government, and a taste for even more freedom. Perhaps that's the underlying theme of gold: intrinsic value that can't be stolen by rulers.

Update

... though according to this story, it can be seized by force, as we see in today's Federal raid on the Liberty Dollar. Watch out for more of this story and the call for a legal class action to follow. Governments have no sense of humour about unofficial challenges to their currency.

... but the news is no use

Ghassan Abdallah echoes what I've been thinking for some time, namely, that financial news (a) comes too late to help you make decisions, and (b) like the market charts, can be interpreted in either a bullish or a bearish way.

His advice is to get a sense of the underlying trend. I agree, though I'm unhappy about what I'm sensing.

"It's good news week"

... as the ironic (though barely intelligible) Hedghoppers Anonymous song went.

For while Japan and China are selling down their holding of US securities, the UK is gobbling up even more, according to Matt's graphs at Discursive Monologue. Maybe we want to be second in Uncle Sam's hierarchy of foreign creditors, instead of third.

And US employment is holding up, according to the official October figures - but not if you use a different measure, says Chris Puplava.

Synthetic alarm?

Gold's fallen nearly $50 dollars off its 7 November high, just as everything else seems to be taking on a crimson hue.

Is it central bank intervention in the bullion market, or gold forgetting it's a currency and trying to be a commodity, or a temporary slackening in demand because of investment houses having to pony up some cash to cover other positions?

"Danger! Danger!" to quote Robby the Robot from Lost In Space - and next episode, the meteor shower will hit the ground harmlessly.

Which banks are weakest?

Matt at Discursive Monologue compares the banks' mysterious black-box "level 3 assets" with the value of shareholder equity, to give an idea of the scale of the risk the investor in financial stocks may be taking.

Turkeys should note that Thanksgiving is on November 22 this year.

Mutts of the Dow

Greg Silberman suggests buying cheap, small-cap US stocks. Shades of Sir John Templeton's founding investment at the start of WWII?