Punish the perp

Karl Denninger says we should make the people who caused the subprime problems pay for the consequences. Either they should burn up with their own debt (Marc Faber has said some players should be taken out of the game) or pass on the grief to their shareholders, issuing new shares to raise capital and so diluting the existing stockholders' portion.

Unfortunately, we in the UK have chickened out - for party political reasons to do with its power base in the north of England, the Labour government is currently holding the baby in the case of insolvent lender Northern Rock, even though the tax payer is on the hook for nearly $120 billion as a result. (Hey, that's nearly as much as the proposed new tax break to reflate America - and our population is one-fifth the size of yours!)

Hope you have better luck - or better leaders - over there. Buy a Lottery ticket and hope?

Dow 9,000 update

Dow 12,082.31, gold $880.50/oz, so the Dow is now worth 13.72 ounces of gold as against Robert McHugh's prediction of 13.51.

Nearly there, and the new announcement of a $145 billion reflation may push gold that extra yard.

Stocks may follow bond yields down

Bob Bronson gives us a striking graph of the apparent correlation (since 2000) between the stockmarket and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds. There is now a very wide gap between the two and seemingly the implication is that stocks are overdue for a large correction.

Here we go

Two from Karl Denninger in the last two days:

Monday, he reasserted his belief in DE-flation; but as I've been saying for some time, maybe the real issue is the divide between haves and have-nots, and he deals with that, too. No point being rich if you daren't go out.

Yesterday, he sounded the bells for a possible crash today. Maybe this is when Robert McHugh's prediction is fulfilled.

Time to buy into Northern Rock?

Two hedge funds have punted heavily on the British lender that the government has supported with £55 billion.

The share price has slumped from over £12 last February to 69 pence, assisted by the gleefully gloomy 20/20 hindsight of the news media. We had voxpops today from small "windfall share" demutualisation shareholders ruefully reckoning their notional losses and admitting they can't find the (now-near worthless - ha!) certificates.

One of Sir John Templeton's maxims is "The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell."

Let me offer two of mine: "Never buy what the fund managers try to sell you at financial adviser seminars", and "Remember the journalists who had their pensions in Equitable Life with-profits, because EL didn't (ugh!) pay commissions".

If I had the spare, I might speculate on NR. Hedge funds may be able to afford losing money, but they certainly don't go out of their way to do it. I wonder what will happen?

Oil to crack the dollar?

Nathan Lewis reminds us how, when President Nixon cut the dollar's link to gold in 1971, OPEC protected the real value of its oil with price rises (thus earning a reputation for having caused our inflation).

Now that the gold dinar has been introduced in Malaysia, Lewis wonders whether the dirham should link to gold, too, so oil exporters can avoid being robbed by a falling dollar.

Brownouts and lines at the gas station again, perhaps.

USA / UK Sovereign Wealth Funds?

Shares are supposed to be the best long-term investment, better than bonds or cash. The usual concern is the time horizon of the investor. Who lives longer than a state like America or Britain?

Foreign governments with trade surpluses (based on artificially low currency exchange rates and stupid overspending by the West) are building up trillions in reserves and eyeing our companies and real estate. If our own leaders aren't willing to rebalance the world economy, the least they can do is get a piece of the action.

Why not?