Balls the prophet

The Mail says Ed Balls predicted the crash in 2007, which is why he urged Brown to hold a snap election.

Out of 20,000 professional economists, Oz econ academic Steve Keen reckons only some 20 saw it coming. EB has an econ-academic background; so has his brother Andrew, who joined bond investment giant Pimco in 2006. Did the latter have interesting conversations with the former in 2007?

Clearly we need Balls' insight - as long as his concern is not limited to party success. What is he predicting now, I wonder?


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It's not UKIP the Pub Landlord is standing against

Here is an extract from Wikipedia's page on the South Thanet constituency:

General Election 2010: South Thanet[16]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Laura Sandys	22,043	48.0	+6.8
	Labour	Stephen Ladyman	14,426	31.4	−8.1
	Liberal Democrat	Peter Bucklitsch	6,935	15.1	+2.9
	UKIP	Trevor Shonk	2,529	5.5	+0.7
Majority			7,617	16.6
Turnout			45,933	65.3	0.2
	Conservative gain from Labour		Swing	+7.4

Elections in the 2000s[edit]

General Election 2005: South Thanet
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Stephen Ladyman	16,660	40.4	-5.3
	Conservative	Mark MacGregor	15,996	38.8	-2.3
	Liberal Democrat	Guy Voizey	5,431	13.2	+3.8
	UKIP	Nigel Farage	2,079	5.0	+3.7
	Green	Howard Green	888	2.2	+2.2
	Independent	Maude Kinsella	188	0.5	+0.5
Majority			664	1.6
Turnout			41,242	65	1.1
	Labour hold		Swing	-1.5

The idea that UKIP seriously hope to win there, is risible. UKIP's highest poll in 2010 (N. Farage, 17.4%) was in Buckingham, against John Bercow; the next highest was Robert Brown's 8.3% in Cambridgeshire North West. As we have seen already, UKIP's best chance of gaining seats is to win over disenchanted sitting MPs.

Al Murray may claim to be standing against Nigel Farage but all he is likely to do is disrupt the competition at the top in this Con-Lab swing seat - and, more importantly, disrupt the minorities' campaigns there generally with his additional noises off.

And get a lot of attention with his joke "Free UK Party" (FUKP, get it? I get it daily, teaching excluded primary children. What a wag.)

He is not standing for any party, not even the Labour Party for which he is an activist - or was, until this possibly Labour-vote-dividing stunt.

He is standing for himself.


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Ice spikes

Last March a triangular ice spike appeared on our bird bath.  I was reminded of it by Roy Spencer's recent post on ice spikes he has observed in Alabama. He also links to this laboratory study which used ice cubes in a tray, but presumably the mechanism is similar.

In the case of an ice spike forming in an ice cube tray, water first freezes at the surface, starting at the edges the cube, and the ice subsequently expands laterally until only a small hole in the ice surface remains. Then the continued freezing of water beneath the surface forces water up through the hole, where it freezes around the edge of the hole to form the beginnings of a hollow tube. Continued freezing forces water up through the tube, where it freezes around the rim and lengthens the tube. At some point the tube freezes shut and growth stops. 

As you can probably see, there was snow on the ground and the bird bath is quite shallow which seems to help. Wikipedia has more info.

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Baga massacre: elimination of democracy in northern Nigeria?

While Western citizens are mesmerized by the awful killings in Paris, a far worse atrocity has taken place in Baga, northern Nigeria, where Boko Haram slaughtered residents indiscriminately.

It isn't the first time, Here is what the BBC had to say back in May 2014:

"Nigeria's militant Islamist group Boko Haram - which has caused havoc in Africa's most populous country through a wave of bombings, assassinations and now abductions - is fighting to overthrow the government and create an Islamic state.

"Its followers are said to be influenced by the Koranic phrase which says: "Anyone who is not governed by what Allah has revealed is among the transgressors".

"Boko Haram promotes a version of Islam which makes it "haram", or forbidden, for Muslims to take part in any political or social activity associated with Western society.

"This includes voting in elections, wearing shirts and trousers or receiving a secular education.

"Boko Haram regards the Nigerian state as being run by non-believers, even when the country had a Muslim president."

A 2011 article from GeoCurrents here gives more background on the ethnic and religious differences that have split Nigeria.

(source)

For me, this isn't about religion. It's about Puritans, the Christian variety of which set England on fire in the seventeenth century Civil War. And power: the Protestants' fear of losing their post-monastic-destruction possessions (and more) led to the "baby in the warming pan" lie and the overthrow of James II in the "Glorious Revolution" (itself the inspiration for more and bloodier revolutions elsewhere.)

Pseudo-sentimental posturing by world politicians in Paris - apparently in a separate location from the one to which they called up the crowds - won't stop it; nor will increased blanket prurient spying on all of us. If we want security, we need a secular state that firmly enforces rules of behaviour and demeanour. All groups need to keep their heads down.

But when things get doctrinal, on what solid rock does liberalism stand? And even if there is one, does our current political and economic leadership stand on it?


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Let's hack the coffee table

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The "40% rule" would wipe out the Labour Party

It is a remarkable fact that Conservative constituencies are more solidly so than any other party. Based on the 2010 General Election results, here is what the House of Commons would look like if only those Members were admitted who gained 40% or more of the votes of all the registered electors in their constituency (not simply all those who actually cast their vote):

Constituency Name	Region	Party
Daventry	East Midlands	CON
Northamptonshire South	East Midlands	CON
Brentwood & Ongar	Eastern	CON
Hitchin & Harpenden	Eastern	CON
Maldon	Eastern	CON
Norfolk North	Eastern	LIB DEM
Beckenham	London	CON
Orpington	London	CON
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner	London	CON
Twickenham	London	LIB DEM
Westmorland & Lonsdale	North West	LIB DEM
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath	Scotland	LAB
Arundel & South Downs	South East	CON
Beaconsfield	South East	CON
Chesham & Amersham	South East	CON
Esher & Walton	South East	CON
Hampshire East	South East	CON
Hampshire North East	South East	CON
Hampshire North West	South East	CON
Henley	South East	CON
Maidenhead	South East	CON
Meon Valley	South East	CON
Mole Valley	South East	CON
New Forest West	South East	CON
Newbury	South East	CON
Sevenoaks	South East	CON
Surrey East	South East	CON
Surrey Heath	South East	CON
Surrey South West	South East	CON
Tonbridge & Malling	South East	CON
Wealden	South East	CON
Windsor	South East	CON
Witney	South East	CON
Christchurch	South West	CON
Kenilworth & Southam	West Midlands	CON
Richmond (Yorks)	Yorkshire and the Humber	CON

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Conservative crackdown on MPs "will end right to represent people"

PM David Cameron plans to end the disruption caused by Her Majesty's Government in many Middle Eastern countries, a spokesman said today.

"We acknowledge that is inconsistent to impose a rule on unions requiring 40% of members to approve a strike action, without imposing the same on candidates for Parliamentary seats, and on political parties generally.

"We are aware that no party garnered 40% or more of votes cast in the 2010 General Election, and of course the results were much lower in relation to the number of registered electors, 35% of whom did not vote at all.

"The picture is scarcely better within individual constituencies. True, 539 MPs got 40%-plus of votes cast in 2010**, but again to be consistent we must admit that only 36 of them were returned by 40% or more of those who could have voted.*

"Unfortunately, this means that over 600 MPs will have to lose their places.  Having gone that far, really we do not see the need for General Elections at all and in future the UK will be governed by a very small self-appointed rump of  former 'forty percenters' meeting in the upper room of the Westminster Arms. Plus Angela Merkel, obviously.

"The now-redundant Palace of Westminster next door is up for sale and we have already had several expressions of interest from international property developers.

"What's important is to recognise the good news in all this, which is that the Government will no longer feel the need to gain popularity by vainglorious military adventures on the Arab Street. (The spokesman said that for this and other reasons, the new, permanent mini-government would not be styled "the Drones Club".) Cam is already in the process of selling his camo jacket on eBay."

"Best of all from our point of view, we've ditched the Scots*, all bar one and he's like Macavity." (The MP for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath is the Right Honourable Gordon Brown.)

(pic source)

The Not-The-Drones Club:

Constituency Name	Region	Party
Daventry	East Midlands	CON
Northamptonshire South	East Midlands	CON
Brentwood & Ongar	Eastern	CON
Hitchin & Harpenden	Eastern	CON
Maldon	Eastern	CON
Norfolk North	Eastern	LIB DEM
Beckenham	London	CON
Orpington	London	CON
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner	London	CON
Twickenham	London	LIB DEM
Westmorland & Lonsdale	North West	LIB DEM
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath	Scotland	LAB
Arundel & South Downs	South East	CON
Beaconsfield	South East	CON
Chesham & Amersham	South East	CON
Esher & Walton	South East	CON
Hampshire East	South East	CON
Hampshire North East	South East	CON
Hampshire North West	South East	CON
Henley	South East	CON
Maidenhead	South East	CON
Meon Valley	South East	CON
Mole Valley	South East	CON
New Forest West	South East	CON
Newbury	South East	CON
Sevenoaks	South East	CON
Surrey East	South East	CON
Surrey Heath	South East	CON
Surrey South West	South East	CON
Tonbridge & Malling	South East	CON
Wealden	South East	CON
Windsor	South East	CON
Witney	South East	CON
Christchurch	South West	CON
Kenilworth & Southam	West Midlands	CON
Richmond (Yorks)	Yorkshire and the Humber	CON

_____________________________________

* ... not to mention Northern Ireland, the Welsh and Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam). And Ed Miliband (Doncaster North), together with the entire PLP except for Macavity.

** but only 217 of them got 50% or more.


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