Us banks vs UK banks

We are now getting used to hearing that the UK is the worst-placed among the G20 countries to recover from the credit crunch. One reason is that we have few banks, and almost all of them in trouble.

By contrast, as you see here, the US has 8,500 banks, most of them in good condition. The problems are concentrated in their handful of giants. Over there, it would be possible to bust them and have others ready to take on their books of loans (discounted) and deposits.

Here, I think we'd have to create a new bank, if only to provide some competition for Barclays and HSBC.

A lighter moment

I wish I could embed this one, but please click on the link to see an outstanding and very funny example of hysterical greed:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70wuAWxOEZA

... but the Revolution begins at home

We attended the memorial service for a friend yesterday, and the following quotation (Acts, Chap. 2, vv. 44-47 - King James version) was included in the readings:

And all that believed were together, and had all things common;
And sold their possessions and goods, and parted them to all men, as every man had need.
And they, continuing daily with one accord in the temple, and breaking bread from house to house, did eat their meat with gladness and singleness of heart,
Praising God, and having favour with all the people. And the Lord added to the church daily such as should be saved.

It's a big ask, as they say; and the more we have, the bigger an ask it is. Jesus' advice to the rich young man (Matthew 19, v. 21) is after the latter has confirmed that he already performs all the normal religious duties:

If thou wilt be perfect, go and sell that thou hast, and give to the poor, and thou shalt have treasure in heaven: and come and follow me.

It was too much for that trustafarian, and it's too much for modern us. So we try to explain it away, Philadelphia lawyer-style. Clever people will explain that if you give away all, you'll merely be a charity case yourself. Or they'll tell you that the advice was case-specific: the young man needed freeing from his attachment to material things (and, presumably, we don't).

Yet the history of the early Church clearly shows that these sophisticated glosses are plain wrong. They were far, far closer to the revolutionary events (and witnesses) of the New Testament, and we must assume that they understood the message better. "Such as should be saved" must join the project, and obey the project's rules.

Reportedly, 82% of Americans are Christians (even the Simpson family). Many sincerely try to follow the early example - think of the people who took in refugees from Katrina-devastated New Orleans, and how some of these good hosts were robbed and even killed as a result.

But writing comments on US blogs suggesting sharing resources (even in the bureacratic form of the NHS) will get sharp ripostes accusing you of socialism or worse.

It's still a big ask, isn't it? And still too big for me, at the moment.

The Revolution is beginning

This Parliament has now lost all moral and political authority and ought, by rights, to dissolve itself.

It is now not only the Government that has ceased to deserve our trust. So many members of the House of Commons have disgraced themselves so completely that their right to make laws for the rest of us has evaporated.

Read the rest of this extraordinary attack on our corrupted Parliament and broken democracy, in the Mail on Sunday here. The blogger-whingeing has now gone mainstream.

The gold bugs are chittering - but don't get over-excited

Jeff Clark at Casey Research (htp: The Mogambo Guru) plays with the numbers to estimate gold's potential.

One stat is created from a comparison of all the world's cash with all the world's gold: "Total central banks reserves (including gold holdings) = $4.8 trillion, divided by 929.6 million ounces total gold reserves held by all official institutions that issue currency = $5,246 gold price." Or about £3,500 per ounce.

HOWEVER: the World Gold Council estimates that all the gold ever mined to the end of 2006 is about 158,000 tonnes, or 5,079.7 million ounces. If we round down to 5 billion ounces (to allow for some permanent loss, but offset to some extent by new mining - esp. in China - since 2006) we get a gold price of $960 per ounce - not far off where we are today. Allow a bit of cash held outside banks, and gold would be worth - what? $1,000? $1,200?

Yes, there may be a spike like in 1980 - and there may not be. But speculation/panic aside, it would seem that, globally, the current gold-to-money ratio is not quite so wrong as might seem at first sight. So the story is not really about gold, but about the weakness of the dollar in a heavily unbalanced US economy. Priced in a different, stronger currency, gold may not zoom to the moon.

Gold, and theft by inflation

A killer graph here from Charles Hugh Smith. Interestingly, the steady real decline of average incomes begins at almost exactly the same time as Nixon shut the "gold window".

Smith's take is that "the speculative mania in housing was fundamentally a tragic last-gasp effort to make up lost ground via speculation in housing". And if housing reverts to mean, it has a long, long way to go yet.

Is it worth a shot?

Our Founding Fathers were not all professional politicians. They were farmers, writers, inventors, lawyers and surveyors. They had organized estates, led men into battle, built furniture, and written books.

By contrast, our modern elite have often never generated anything. I believe that is why they find it so easy to destroy things that they don't understand (which is a long list).

Petty officials in Brussels attack the British banger and English chocolate, not by relevant measures such as taste or safety, but using purely arbitrary scales.

In Britain, the well-educated New Labour, demonstrating their reverse snobbery, diminish the Peerage, and complete the destruction of a once-great educational system.

In the US, we have the legions of draft-dodgers who steer high-ticket military contracts to their friends, while our exhausted troops salvage from junk yards. The managers, accountants and lawyers have brought our economy to its elbows by equating the movement of wealth with its generation. Our fragile education system is battered by consultants and administrators who confuse good grades with competent teaching and actual learning.

Perhaps some of this could be improved by adapting some of the Japanese model, where management trainees first must try every job on the shop floor?

My pay/pension's inflation-protected, so I'll be all right... won't I?

Click to enlarge - I hope!

No.

Take the illustrated cases above, where take-home income is 1,000 zlotys (or whatever), and you are exceptionally fortunate, in that your benevolent employer/government gives you annual rises that exactly match the rise in inflation in the preceding 12 months.

The trick is, although the pay hike brings you up to the new level of monthly expenditure (at least, up to the point where inflation was re-calculated), it doesn't compensate for the cumulative losses over the year.

This is is one way they can exploit inflation to steal from you, and balance the public finances.

It's us or Them - and inflation's coming

Paul B. Farrell argues - plausibly - that we're in a life-or-death struggle with the financial elite, and they will "win", until the system can no longer sustain them - or us.

A self-deprecating blogger styled "The Anecdotal Economist" suggests a fight back in the form of switching your savings and borrowings away from these enemies of the people.

htp: Jesse, who has joined the Angry Brigade and whose regularly changed sidebar links for reading ("Matière à Réflexion") are a treasure trove.

Meanwhile, John Williams of Shadowstats says:

We will see inflation levels not seen in our lifetime by as early as the end of this year. Eventually we will see liabilities of $65 trillion – more than four times U.S. GDP, more than global GDP. There will be a hyper inflation where the dollar becomes worthless, where the paper is worth more as wall paper than as currency.

htp: Michael Panzner, who also is a great pre-reader for us. Michael says he's switched swides to the inflation believers, but he's too modest - he himself predicted deflation followed by inflation in "Financial Armageddon".

Deflation? You're joking!

Newpaper headlines: we're in deflation for the first time since x years.

Yes, looking at RPI, which takes into account mortgage costs, which have plummeted since the Bank of England cut the rate to its lowest since the Bank started.

No, if you look at non-mortgage costs of living - another newspaper article says pensioners' experience of inflation is something over 12%.

I can't be bothered to find and link the MSM articles. In my view, Guido is right: journalists have become lazy, uncritical copytakers. Now have a look at Zeal's graph of the money supply, the immediate-demand form of which has doubled in 12 months in America.

I still think we're in a sort of re-run of the 70s. Cash will be forced out of accounts and into the market, where it will still lose value, but nothing like as badly as if left rotting in banks and building societies. The Great Theft is on its way.

If you follow Marc Faber, you'll know that he's currently suggesting holding half your wad as cash, since the bubble hasn't really burst yet; but other than that, he's thinking 10% gold and 40% in a combination of resource and emerging market stocks.

The world's average per capita income is $8k - $9k; as globalisation continues the levelling-out process, the East will never be as rich as we once were, but they'll be less poor. For us, on the other hand, this may be the last chance to put something away for our future.

Life goes on!

Yesterday was a fine day. My wife meets our neighbour's mother, wheeling her 15-month-old granddaughter in the pushchair. The child is holding a measuring jug with an animal fridge magnet in it. "What's with the jug?" asks my wife. "That's mine," says grannie, "we've had to take the pussycat for a walk."

Spam

Anybody else having their post comments invaded by Chinese spam with randomised avatar names?

'Swhat I think...

At some point the equity market will start moving higher and keep going, to fantastic levels perhaps, if a serious inflation sets in. The stock markets in the Weimar Republic were spectacular, if one ignored the reality behind the appearance. We think it is far too early in the game for this, but are keeping an open mind to all possibilities.

- Jesse

But before then, I think we have a date with Mr Stockmarket Crunch. I just don't know when that date is.

Time for a Little Socialism?

It is a long-standing argument by US conservatives that progressive taxation is unfair, and that the answer to our economic ills is tax cuts for the wealthy.

In support of that argument, the often-quoted figure is that the top 10% of earners pay 40% of the taxes. That sounds unfair, doesn't it?

According to the IRS, in 2005, the top 10% of earners had 48.5% of the income. The top 1% had 21% of all income.

In other words, the top 10% earned about 8.5 times the average of the bottom 90%, the top 1% earned 26.3 times the average of the other 99%.

In addition, when calculating the taxes per dollar earned, using the conservatives' own figures, the lower 90% pays at a rate which is 1.4 times that of the top 10%.

Still not the truth

J. S. Kim (htp: Jesse) considers the $700 trillion derivatives market (worth maybe 23 times all the stockmarkets in the world), and notes that it's being used to disguise the true woeful state of the banking system. It is as though, when listing his personal assets, a compulsive big-time gambler could include all his current Lottery tickets and horse-racing betting slips:

"... when FASB suspended mark-to-market accounting rules recently, major international banks were allowed to re-value some of their derivative products closer to their notional value on their books to pad their balance sheets. Due to this change in accounting law, I can almost guarantee you that before market open Friday, Citigroup will announce better than expected financial results as they carried huge amounts of illiquid mortgages and financial derivatives on their balance sheets."

I fear that many major banks may be thoroughly ruined, and until the lying stops, effective action cannot be taken.

Straws in the wind, the flight of birds

Yesterday, I read the entrails and thought the market was due to tank. Today, the FTSE drops 102 points, the Dow 290. Tomorrow - "¿Quien sabe?"

The deflationary bust

Looking around "Financial Sense"...

Professor Antal E. Fekete revisits his deflationary theory: we have passed a crucial point in debt accumulation. From now (actually, from 2006, he says) onward, the more politicians attempt to stimulate it with debt, the faster the economy will shrink. Gold, the machine's "governor" that set limits to debt, was decoupled from the system a century ago - it got in the way of war financing.

Stephen Tetreault says if there's a rise in stocks, sell: "I do not see a positive bullish catalyst in the making as we head into the earnings sector other than a potential short squeeze, relief rally that should which should be sold into." He notes that deflation means those that can, are paying down debt, but also lenders are widening the margins between the interest they pay and the interest they charge, which gives further impetus to deflation.

Tony Allison says, sooner or later energy is going to cost more. He's thinking about the right point to speculate, the rest of us should consider the effect of higher energy costs on family budgets, and therefore on how reduced disposable income will be allocated.

Captain Hook foresees a time when "the public finally gives up the ghost on stocks in general, correspondingly they will fully embrace the likelihood of deflation, which will trigger a temporary collapse in commodity prices, led by their paper representations." He thinks this will be the time when physical gold will win; I wonder whether that is so, when most of us are so dependent on an electronic system. We're not farmers, selling corn and cattle to each other; the machine cannot be allowed to stop. That's why I think there will be, for a time, a switch to currency inflation; then perhaps a rerun of the early Eighties, as someone public-spirited in public life takes unpopular action to prevent the dive into the abyss.

For E. M. Forster's extraordinarily accurate vision of the future, written in 1909, please click the last link above. Telephone, TV, a populace paralysed by lethargy and wealth in its bedrooms...

How much is left in the banking system?

Mark Wadsworth refers us to this US banking information, from which I extract and interpret the following:

This information is a year out of date - more, in the case of credit unions. I wonder where we are now? Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports that US housing has dropped 29% from peak. Is the system, as some say, basically bust?

Kill the old

Not my idea; but I saw it as a graffito on the back of a bus seat on the upper deck, where the schoolchildren gravitate - more than 20 years ago.

Now the FT comments on how longevity (plus the old's passion for killing the unborn and preventing conception) is going to ruin us. We think the young are selfish, and don't dare glance at their elders, who imagine they can quit their jobs in the prime of life and live like kings on the backs of their progeny and remoter descendants - or such few of them as the old permit to survive.

As Mark Steyn puts it:

“Over the next decade,” Frau Merkel pointed out, “we will undergo a massive demographic change, and, therefore, borrowing is a greater burden for the future than in a country with a much more continuously growing population, as in the United States of America.”

Translation: America can rack up multi-trillion-dollar deficits and stick it to its kids and grandkids. But in Europe there are no kids and grandkids to stick it to—just upside- down family trees: in Germany, Spain and Italy, four grandparents have two children have one grandchild. The Financial Times noted last week that the demographic death spiral is a far greater threat to fiscal solvency than the present economic downturn. And yet, despite Germany, Japan and Russia already being in net population decline, the G20 had not a word to say about it.

That bill's going to come in, and Herod himself can't prevent it. In fact, he caused it.

The market is going to tank

How do I know? I don't.

But I read this piece in the Grumbler.

Picture it. You are a rich broker - floated your company in May 2007 (how's that for timing?). Predicting good times ahead, you... sell £47m of your shares.

You say it's for "private projects", and throw the Mail journalist a tidbit about your beloved foopball club. The Mail journalist writing down your copy at least thinks to ask you how much of this cash will go towards the new stadium. You "decline to say".

Meanwhile, Charles Hugh Smith describes (April 18) the thinking that has led him to punt on a financial bear fund.

Straws in the wind, I'm thinking.