Globalisation and economic depression - some strategies

China has its problems. Monsters and Critics, quoting UPI, says that 3.5 million jobs could go if the yuan appreciates much more against the dollar. But if it doesn't, the trade imbalance continues and the economy and stockmarket carry on overheating. So China too is between a rock and a hard place.

In the long run and given free global trade, surely low-wage economies will take work from the higher-wage ones, until we reach equilibrium. It's the rate of change that makes it messy. For people like the Chinese, they have to work out how to take over our manufacturing capacity without bankrupting their biggest customers; for the West, how to lose all this work and wealth and remain democracies.

Richard Duncan thinks it can't be done without some original form of intervention - he suggests a steadily rising minimum wage, to give the worker in the developing economies enough money to take over the job of buying things, a job that we in the West thought was ours for life.

But the implication for us seems clear - we must become poorer. The winners among us will be those who are able to extract capital out of their possessions and preserve it. Marc Faber says that there are bubbles everywhere - property, shares, commodities - but I guess that in a deflationary world there must be something that will increase in value relative to most other things.

Cash seems obvious - the deflation of the Thirties was such that in the UK we had the Geddes Axe, actually cutting the wages of public servants to maintain a steady relationship between money and things (UPDATE: I got Geddes wrong - see HERE - sorry). So public servants who had accumulated savings would have done well - if they had saved. For many others, it was unemployment and poverty. To get an idea of the process and consequences, read "Twopence to cross the Mersey" by Helen Forrester, a real-life story about the economic descent of her middle-class family, which had (typically) lived on credit before the Crash.

Some fear that our governments will shudder at the thought of repeating that period and will try to buy their way out of the jam by printing money, in which case we could go from deflation to hyperinflation, and this is where the gold-bugs raise their voices.

On this analysis, I should think the strategy is clear. First, get out of/avoid debt. Then, live simply, and if possible convert unnecessary assets to cash - which you may partly invest in whatever you think will hold its value. And look for the steadiest job you can find?

China's stockmarket begins to cool

The Chinese market dropped 6.8% today; not much compared to its rise this year, but it's seen as the start of a necessary correction - Mark Mobius of Templeton regards a potential 30% loss as healthy! However, The Daily FX think it may also trigger a similar bearishness on the Dow, and if it does, this will impact on the carry trade. It has already caused a drop on gold futures today. Everyone seems a bit jumpy.

ABOUT THE BEARS

Here are some blogs, websites and e-newsletters that usually take a bear view:

Contrary Investor is from a group of institutional investment managers and analysts. Parts of this site are charged.

The Contrarian Investors' Journal appears well-informed and readying us for a crash.

The Daily Reckoning A free, bearish/contrarian newsletter published by Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin. Hosts columns and comments from many bears. See also sister publication, The Daily Reckoning Australia, and the Daily Reckoning blog.

Richard Daughty aka The Mogambo Guru. Financial adviser and fervent monetarist. Chief Operating Officer (COO) of Smith Consultant Group. A regular contributor to The Daily Reckoning. Style very breezy/gonzo/slapstick, but the substance is serious and he quotes many sources in his tirades.

Marc Faber Swiss-born, Hong Kong-based investment manager. His firm manages $300 million. Parts of his site are charged. Look at his Resources section for guides to further reading.

Financial Sense is a site run by investment adviser Jim Puplava, featuring editorials by many others.

GoldenBar is by Ed Bugos, a stockbroker and investment adviser who retired after 12 years in the industry. His is one of many "gold-bug" sites, and offers comment on the markets and economics.

iTulip is a successful contrarian site with many links and a history of warning investors about market bubbles.

Michael Panzner Author of "Financial Armageddon" - see Book Reviews page. A five-star bear who warns of dangers to the financial system. Very active in promoting his message. Has 25 years' experience in investment, and has worked for a number of major banks.

Safe Haven is a site for the cautious investor. If you click on "about SafeHaven" you will see useful recommendations for further reading.

Puru Saxena Owns Hong Kong-based investment advice firm. 10 years in the industry. Publishes financial newsletter "Money Matters" (annual fee).

Peter Schiff Author of "Crash Proof" with John Downes - see Book Reviews page. President of brokerage firm Euro Pacific Capital.

Mark Skousen - libertarian, economist and (currently) bear.

David Tice David manages a couple of mutual funds and heads a team that publishes Prudent Bear, a respected website. This calls itself "the one-stop shop for the bear case".

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INTRODUCTION

A growing number of experts say that US trade and budget deficits, together with an unprecedented increase in the US money supply, have destabilised the world financial system.

This site looks for ideas to protect your wealth. It's not personal financial advice (a highly regulated activity), but I feel it's important to spread the word and discuss the issues. If you agree, please let others know about "Bearwatch".

The Book Reviews page is a good starting point (sidebar). Each title links to a review and summary.

The main page shows recent news and articles. You can also now automatically get updates by email (sidebar). To search for specific words or phrases, you may prefer the "Search this blog" tool - it's more comprehensive than the labels list.

Follow the Bears (sidebar) provides links to selected sites so you can track up-to-date comment from these bears.

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Further reading for the serious investor

For those who wish to develop into active investors, may I direct you to the resources section of Marc Faber's website? This part is free and recommends newspapers, books and weblinks.

Gold to resume its rise?

Adrian Ash and Richard Daughty are bullish on gold again. Adrian expects the downturn in the US housing market to turn investors bearish; Richard relates the recent price-dawdling of gold to Spain's decision to sell a lot of it on the market to restock their foreign currency reserves.

Interview: "The Dollar Crisis" by Richard Duncan

While I am finishing Richard Duncan's book, please see here for an interview in which the author explains his analysis and proposed solutions. This man is no Chicken Little - he's worked for the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The problems he describes are very real and very important.

As I understand it, America is like a gourmet and the Far East is his favourite cafe. With the party of friends he brings, he is by far its most important customer - but he pays for the meals in IOUs. He's been such good business that the cafe has borrowed from the bank to build an extension and hire extra staff.

But some start to worry that America won't be able to settle the now-enormous bill. What to do? If he pays up, he runs out of money and stops visiting the restaurant. America will go on a diet of bread and water and the cafe will go bust. On the other hand, if the restaurant accepts that his IOUs are worthless, it's bust anyway.

One solution is to look for new customers before the crisis hits, so the cafe can keep going. And another is to outlaw IOUs - if you haven't got the cash, you don't get the meal.

So Mr Duncan proposes:

(a) a global minimum wage, so poorer people around the world can have the money to buy the goods and services the Far East is geared up to provide.

(b) a global bank, to oversee financial balances between countries and prevent these credit problems recurring.

Meanwhile, America must face a much lower standard of living for a long time, until he's out of the hole he dug for himself. And maybe he'll be allowed a discount on his debt (i.e. inflation). The cafe is going to suffer a loss; the question is whether the business can find a way to survive it.

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