What slows us? Not just the dollar; demographics, too

F. William Engdahl argues that a key factor in future economic performance is demographics, and there are foreign countries with younger populations that will come into their own.

Off with his security pass!

Jim Fedako argues that the point of democracy is not to serve the people, but to allow ousted leaders to lose their jobs while keeping their heads.

Does liberty mean no more than this?

Life is a duck race

A few weeks ago, we watched a duck race in the Wye Valley. The ducks were emptied out of a big bag off the bridge at the same time, but at the finish a mile lower down, the winner was 20 minutes ahead of the second. Others had formed little groups and convoys, with stragglers and outliers.

Seems like a metaphor to me. The winner certainly didn't paddle any harder or smarter than the others. How much of a part does luck play in our lives?

Investment cataclysm?

The Mogambo Guru points out that the Standard & Poor's 500 Index stands at $940, but the earnings last week were $7.21, a price-earnings ratio of 130.

Historically, the p/e ratio of the S&P 500 has averaged less than 20 - whether you measure from 1881, 1900, 1945 or 1970.

If the earnings don't improve dramatically and soon, the implication is a super-crash. But even if earnings triple from last week's level, that would merely put us back to where we were in December 1999, when the S&P's p/e ratio stood at its highest-ever (up to then) level: 44.2. And as you know, the market went on to halve in value by 2003.

So the S&P earnings have to become three times better than they are now, just to match the pre-Millennium crash conditions.

The dominant feeling I have now is a diffuse sense of denial.

A winning move for New Labour?

What if New Labour's next General Election manifesto were to contain a pledge to hold a straightforward, binding referendum on British membership of the EU?

Call out the instigator

We are in one of those “generational revolutions” that Jefferson said were as important as anything else to the proper functioning of our democracy. We can no longer pretend that our collective behavior as a nation for the past 25 years has been worthy of us as a people.

I suggest you read this op-ed piece in the NYT (htp: Jesse). Revolution is in the air - here, too. That's why we need radical reform, instead.

He who pays the piper calls the tune

A couple of stories catch my eye:

China is requiring new PCs to come with factory-installed Internet filters (don't tell our government)...

... and may be buying American military secrets from the US Government (I believe I suggested this as a possible development quite some time ago, but I'm still looking for the reference.)