A few weeks ago, we watched a duck race in the Wye Valley. The ducks were emptied out of a big bag off the bridge at the same time, but at the finish a mile lower down, the winner was 20 minutes ahead of the second. Others had formed little groups and convoys, with stragglers and outliers.
Seems like a metaphor to me. The winner certainly didn't paddle any harder or smarter than the others. How much of a part does luck play in our lives?