The Mogambo Guru points out that the Standard & Poor's 500 Index stands at $940, but the earnings last week were $7.21, a price-earnings ratio of 130.
Historically, the p/e ratio of the S&P 500 has averaged less than 20 - whether you measure from 1881, 1900, 1945 or 1970.
If the earnings don't improve dramatically and soon, the implication is a super-crash. But even if earnings triple from last week's level, that would merely put us back to where we were in December 1999, when the S&P's p/e ratio stood at its highest-ever (up to then) level: 44.2. And as you know, the market went on to halve in value by 2003.
So the S&P earnings have to become three times better than they are now, just to match the pre-Millennium crash conditions.
The dominant feeling I have now is a diffuse sense of denial.