Doomster report: be prepared

Graph: Karl Denninger (2013)

Karl Denninger graphs the S&P share index against total public and private debt in the US and concludes that, volatility aside, they match.

If, for some reason, the ratio between debt and GDP reverted to that of 1980, the implication is that the S&P would approximately halve (which would be the third time since 2000, as I've said before). The consequences for pension funds etc would be dire, and this is the point at which, perhaps, the printing presses start to roll in earnest. Houses have inflated and popped, so have the banks, all that's left is the governments themselves - and the value of your savings.

As reported by Zero Hedge, Marc Faber predicts "a total collapse, but from a higher diving board", so he sees gold as an safeguard, not an investment in the usual profit-making sense: "I always buy gold and I own gold. I don't even value it. I regard it as an insurance policy. I think responsible citizens should own gold, period." Back in May, James Dines took much the same view: cash plus gold as a backstop.

But as I said last year, if "total collapse" means what it says, gold won't help either - otherwise we wouldn't have found the Lichfield Hoard buried in a Midlands field hundreds of years later. Which is why Investment Watch now reminds us of the need to prepare for truly serious emergencies.

I know some "preppers", but part of the preparation is not telling people who they are. It is going on.

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Survivalism goes mainstream

If you listen out for them, you'll hear them: voices telling you to prepare for disruption to normal civil life.

Years ago, it'd be American gun nuts - the type that quotes Ruby Ridge and Waco as revealing the soul of government. They'd be researching the continental US to find rural areas safe from floods, earthquakes and tornadoes; they'd be building houses quickly and cheaply from straw bales (it works very well, apparently). Pioneering without the Apache has a superficial romantic attraction.

But there is a new Apache: your fellow man. In northeastern Ohio, a sheriff's department has suffered such severe budget cuts that it now has only one police car to cover an area twice the size of the British West Midlands. A judge has advised residents to arm themselves, to be careful and vigilant and make connections with their neighbours. (htp: John Lott)

In Australia, an investor education website has turned from advising us how to build a balanced portfolio, to considering what happens when complex societies collapse:

Marc Faber is recommending that investors have half of their investments exposed to Asia. That is a very useful advice for very high net worth people who have the money and connections to resettle. But for the rest, it is very important to have your own plan B if something happens in your local area...

Your entire country will not be likely to collapse overnight. But if you are unlucky, your local region can be the one that descend into chaos first. The hard question to ask is: do you trust that your government [...] will have the resources, and competence to cope with large-scale crisis? We are not talking about small-scale crisis that affects small communities- we are talking about a scale large enough to affect at least hundreds of thousands of people.

If you are going to plan for Plan B, then you will have to increase the margins in your life and acquire skills outside the area of your specialisation.

Here in the UK, the Fleet Street Letter (an investor publication established in 1938 and edited by Lord Rees-Mogg, formerly editor of the Times) is striking a dramatic note with its headline "The Great Financial Deception of 2010". The thesis of the latest edition is that:

• British government credit will be downgraded (leading to a very damaging rise in interest rates)
• The FTSE will halve within the next three months
• A consumer sea-change from reckless spending to saving/paying off debt will tip Britain into deep and prolonged recession
• Residential and commercial property will halve in value within the next 10 years

One of my former clients, a very decent, hard-working man whose business was wiped out in the recession of the 90s, at one point told me that he now understood why people turned to crime. Fortunately, before his understanding grew seriously practical, he sold up and emigrated with his wife to the low-cost Far East. Good for him: he acted, instead of waiting for the government to solve his problems.

Our handkerchief of an urban lawn won't grow enough to support us, and I'm still debating what to do for the best if the worst looks like happening. But one thing is clear: forming and strengthening community links will be a vital part of our survival plan.

Wine pressings

The crush of the present distils wisdom:

In general, my own prescription is all that I will share. I am 58 years old, and have amassed a fair amount of savings over the past twenty years. My general rules for the current period now are:

1. Get liquid. Have little or no debt. Be in cash and diversified. Reduce your expenses.
2. Get as far away as you can from Wall Street and dollar based assets as is practical.
3. Put something you can spare from savings into long term assets that are not directly contingent on anyone else whom you cannot trust:

a. Personal food production, preservation, and preparation
b. Precious metals as insurance against monetary inflation / breakdown
c. Essentials for daily living and personal health care
d. Investments in practical education
e. Personal infrastructure and efficiency

f. Have a contingency plan for a systemic shock.

If you wish raise your voice or to peacefully demonstrate, be prepared with a simple set of coherent positions and specific demands, avoiding anger. The mainstream media likes nothing better than to portrary demonstrators as cranks or fools. In general they are not sympathetic to the less powerful. They will not lead change, but they will eventually follow.

The dolorous stroke

Falling towers
Jerusalem Athens Alexandria
Vienna London
Unreal


Hitchens (1):

A great grey Tower of Babel reaches up into the sky over Europe, lopsided, full of cracks and likely to collapse in the fullness of time...

For Britain, Europe’s oldest continuously independent sovereign state, [...] it is the end of 1,000 years of history, as predicted by the Labour leader Hugh Gaitskell as long ago as 1962...

In the EU, Ireland – no longer a Tiger – takes its place alongside Slovenia and Lithuania as a quirky, minor possession on the damp and unvisited fringes of the Continent, with almost no voting power.

Shorn – as it is now – of its ability to get in the way, it may find that the flow of subsidies will become much thinner in years to come...

The ascent of the EU happened to coincide with several decades of unheard-of prosperity and growth. But the EU did not cause that prosperity...

It was based on American Marshall Aid and helped along by American and British willingness to spend heavily on defending Europe against the USSR, while most of the EU nations kept their military budgets small.

The EU also cannot guarantee that Europe’s prosperity will go on forever. With so many member nations, many of them devastated by decades of Marxist misrule, its capacity to hand out subsidies is running out.

The credit crisis has not finished yet, Western Europe is fast running out of its own energy supplies and the shift of economic power to the Far East is speeding up, not stopping.

The European nations have not worked out how to deal with the enormous Muslim minorities which they have encouraged to settle on their territory and which increasingly demand the right to live according to their traditions.

Nor can they stop the slide of the manufacturing industry towards the regions where labour is cheapest.

Germany, still in a sort of post-traumatic shock over the cost of absorbing the Communist East, may not forever be willing to share a currency – and so a joint bank account – with the poorer and less well-run nations of the Eurozone.

Hitchens (2):

... At the coming Election, refuse to vote for any of them, and do so in such numbers that they can no longer claim they have any mandate to rule, so that their zombie parties collapse in a heap of dust and worms, and we can start again.

The alternative is the accelerating death of our civilisation.

Hannan:

People often wonder why national leaders are so ready to hand their powers to Brussels. Each successive EU treaty has weakened national parliaments, yet each has been enthusiastically ratified by those same parliaments, often in overt defiance of public opinion.

What makes the politicians do it? [...] Perhaps – let’s be blunt – they are defying their electorates in the hope of getting lucrative positions in the EU when their terms expire.

I realise that this is a big claim. But, in ten years as an MEP, I’ve seen it happen time and again.

I’ve watched people arrive in Brussels as moderate Euro-sceptics, but change their views as their lips become clamped around the teat of the expenses. I’ve watched ‘No’ campaigners turn into Euro-enthusiasts after being given sinecures.

Now Tony Blair is plainly not in that category. He was a Euro-enthusiast to start with, albeit in a rather vague, pro-Italian-holidays kind of way. And he’s hardly poor...

No, the charge against him is not that he abandoned his beliefs, but that he abandoned Britain’s interests...

Could the issue of the [EU] budget have been linked in Blair’s mind, even subliminally, with that of the presidency?

... if Blair really did seek to buy the presidency with British taxpayers’ money, he was almost literally selling his country – and there is a very unpleasant word for people who do that.

For those who believe in history with a human face, perhaps this is a punishment, for believing we could create some small and imperfect version of an Earthly Paradise, where even the poorest man would have a voice in his government, and have hope to better his position in society; where the bully would be held back by fear of punishment, and the powerful restrained by the apprehension of condign retribution.

My wife says she feels aggression everywhere, people arguing with bus drivers that they shouldn't have to pay. I say the hungry sheep look up and are not fed; we are lost and leaderless ; those at the bottom of society live in fear of the future, despair, impotent rage, having nothing but meagre dole given them with grandstanding condemnation and impossible promises of opportunity.

Put not your trust in princes, nor in the son of man, in whom there is no help, said the Psalmist.

Le Prince d'Aquitaine à la tour abolie
These fragments I have shored against my ruins

It always ends in a building project, whether the new EU Parliament or Ceauşescu's Casa Poporului...














But that two-handed engine at the door
Stands ready to smite once, and smite no more

It's not for us to take up arms. Worldly powers will rise and fall. Our defence, and the future, is the family. That is the nearest we can have to the Earthly Paradise.

Poverty is OK

Robin Hanson looks forward to being poor. But I fear the path there won't take us to the anonymous semi-contentment of the Dark Ages, because it passes through population crash first.

Squaring the circle, packing your bags

In Britain, there are 28.89 million employed - 72.5% of the "people of working age"; median earnings approach £25,000.

In China, the average urban wage in 2006 was 1750 yuan per month, or (at today's exchange rate) slightly less than £2,000 per year.

_______

In Britain, there are 3 million homes where no-one works, with an average household benefit payment level of over £4,000 p.a. This doesn't factor in the cost of other benefits provided by the State, such as health and education. For example, State schooling costs something like £6,000 yearly per child.

In China, the official urban unemployment rate at the end of 2008 was 4.2%, or nearly 9 million people. This statistic does not include unemployed not eligible for benefits, or migrant workers - about 20 million out of 130 million migrants have no job. In industrialized Guangdong Province, for those who qualify, unemployment benefit for the first 24 months is 688 yuan per month, or £757 per year.

_____________

In Britain, the 27.5% of the "people of working age" that might be employed but are not, number approximately 10.96 million.

In China, estimates Eric Janszen of iTulip, there are 20 million officially unemployed and the real tally should be 40 - 50 million.

_______________

China has over 1 billion people and is desperate for land, and natural resources such as wood, water and arable soil. Despite restrictions on family size, her population continues to increase, largely because her people are getting to live longer (and will one day incur the high additional costs of growing old). She has industrialized at high speed and has built a massive skill base. She is continuing to acquire technological and scientific know-how, and is sucking in the world's steel and a panoply of key African and Australian minerals and rare earths. She sits on vast reserves of coal. The ruling Communist elite have not spent a long lifetime climbing the exceptionally dangerous slippery pole in their country, to see their beloved nation sink into chaos and their equalitarian beliefs defeated.

You are a British (or American) politician. You know all the above - or your handlers will tell you just before you go on "Question Time" or some other grill-the-pol show. (1) What will you say to your voters? (2) What private plans will you make for yourself, your family and your friends?

Marc Faber - total breakdown ahead

... in my view, the big crisis is ahead of us. It may come in 4 or 5 years' time, maybe only in 10 years' time, but the total breakdown of the system is ahead of us and it will devastate the global economy. (4:18 on)

You have to decide whom to believe. Including Steve Keen, it's said that only 12 professional economists worldwide foresaw the crunch, although there are 10 - 15,000 practising in the US alone. So the majority verdict is useless. To me, Faber has the ring of truth.

The good news, such as it is, is that we may have a few years to prepare.

As to perceived turning points, I looked at this last December:

Doomsday scenario

Marc Faber is now using the phrase "total collapse". A commenter on this post says he's joking, because he's smiling, but I don't think the commenter understands European schadenfreude. The Dance of Death illustration on Dr Faber's website should warn you that he is in a very long tradition that sees death and disaster as the spice of our transitory existence.

Faber lives in Chiang Mai, northern Thailand, a country whose King is a proponent of national economic self-sufficiency. It's also worth noting that Chiang Mai is a fairly short air-hop from Burma, Laos and China; and that Dr Faber collects Mao memorabilia and has business interests in Vietnam. I see him as a long-term planner who covers all possible options.

As Dr Doom notes, "...a major crisis like we had should clean the system but nothing has been cleaned," so why should all be well again? But you could choose to side with Faber's co-interviewee Giles Keating of Credit Suisse; very nice accent, nice bearing - just the sort of thing the clients like.

However, witness also Karl Denninger today, commenting on a report that US Federal Government support for the economy could reach almost $24 trillion:

A couple of market technicians have noted certain "patterns" in the market that have potential downside targets of zero. That sort of thing normally results in a loud guffaw from me - even though I'm bearish I'm not that bearish - I couldn't imagine anything short of global thermonuclear war, ala "Joshua", that could lead to such an outcome.

Well I think I just found something purely economic that could lead to that outcome, and it's right here.

Be prepared. As the Greek saying goes, "There is no borrowing a sword in time of war." I'm going to go back to doing what I started to do a few months ago: draw extra cash and stash it in a locker. And some other things (though not weapons - the tiger is the endangered species, not the rabbit).

Signs and portents

Over at Financial Sense University, Jim Willie paints a frightening picture. He claims that the US Federal Reserve has been secretly giving dollars to foreigners to buy US Treasury Certificates, so (temporarily) supporting US bonds and the dollar. Meanwhile, big banks are waiting for smaller banks to suffers losses on commercial loans, at which point they will gobble up their smaller competitors. But the big banks are insolvent, so rather than a healing juncture, it'll be a vampire puncture.

Studying the US Dollar Index, Willie uses a measure that Karl Denninger has previously cited, namely, a comparison of two trends: the 20-week moving average with the 50-week moving average. When the first crosses the second, the second will eventually follow - in this case, downwards.

In my previous post, I referred to signs and portents. This is because when big things are happening, the fog of lies thickens, so we have to look for betraying details and use our intuitions. Art is often the canary in the mine - you hear the coming conflict in the discords of Stravinsky's 1910 "the Rite of Spring". The disturbed children that I teach have recently been exploring zombies. Some also play computer games at home, that involve stabbing opponents in the eyes or genitals. One child's graffiti tag is JABZ.

Doodling, they draw pistols, rifles, knives, swords; but still read Postman Pat and Spongebob Squarepants. Gossiping, they talk of their mother's vibrator, their father's merkin, but (at age 11) don't quite understand and are looking forward to learning the facts about sex next week, which our curriculum now requires me to deliver. They come in shadow-eyed from gaming, but also from (in one case) accompanying their father late at night as he hunts down and savagely beats people who tied up and soaked with petrol an uncle suspected of stealing a motorbike. Where are the police? you may ask; the father is an ex-policeman. The Monarch's writ does not run where our underclass have to live; to have normal social inhibitions would be dangerous in such an environment.

Some may accuse me of moral panic; but I didn't grow up with the currently prevailing sense of moral ambiguity, despair and social collapse. Are we breeding a nation of future child guerrilla-band soldiers? And how tragic, how culpable, that the entertainment industry is playing its part in this; and that the Government hopes to shore up its vote by perpetuating the financial dependence of its claimants.

But it won't happen to us, will it? "Wat geht dat mik an?" as the mediaeval Germans would say: "What's it got to do with me?" Years ago, my Prussian grandmother described Der Flucht, the flight from the Red Army in 1945. They would come to a farm and be very grudgingly permitted to sleep in the haybarn; two days later, the owners would be on the road themselves.

We are in this together; but I cannot see how the present political arrangement can tackle the challenges. There are too many ways for our leadership to be distracted, to be suborned and to escape consequences personally.

They

Lots of people now muttering darkly. But if we think we know what They are up to, and think we can't thwart Them, there should be some way to exploit the situation. For example, if They are manipulating the price of gold to keep it down for as long as possible, then surely it's a great time to buy it before They run out of possible.

Can't we do better than call vainly for somebody to restore justice to the world? Because that's the one thing that won't happen.

So, any ideas?

For example, what to do about the New World Order coinage unveiled by Medvedev the other day?

If you have a son or daughter, would you advise him/her to join GS and their ilk? Or McKinsey? Or emigrate?

Inflation, not deflation

Jesse today, maintaining that inflation can indeed happen...

Our own view is that a serious stagflation with further devaluation of the US dollar as it is replaced as the world's reserve currency is very likely, after a period of slackening demand and high unemployment. A military conflict is also a probable outcome as countries often go to war when they fail at peace.

Tips?

From my own readings in this area, the people who tended to survive the Weimar stagflation the best were those who:

1. Owned independent supplies of essentials including food and shelter and were reasonably self-sufficient.
2. Had savings in foreign currencies that were backed by gold such as the US dollar and the Swiss Franc
3. Possessed precious metals
4. Belonged to a trade union and/or had essential skills or government position which guaranteed a wage
5. Were invested in foreign equity markets, and even in the domestic German stock market for a time

Survival

In a Dublin talk last week, Dmitri Orlov bears out my repeated theme of diversity, dispersion and disconnection - the way in which efficiency and survival are at odds. It's also a theme of James Howard Kunstler. Even Rob Kirby's latest post refers to a "financial ecosystem" and asserts that the concentration of power at the top threatens the structure.

Big changes are on the way. Jesse reports on how the world is weaning itself off the dollar; the Contrarian Investor notes how China is cornering the market in rare minerals vital to modern technology.

There is a power struggle - a host of power struggles - going on. The good news is that life goes on, too. The bad news is that not everybody makes it.

Don't be the doughboy this time.

Let's move to Russia

I've said it before: you get the clearest explanations from someone who is in a hurry to move on to something else. Here is Dmitry Orlov on why Russia will survive:

It seems that the Russians are better-equipped to survive financial collapse than just about anyone else. They have formidable reserves of gold and foreign currency to soften the downward slide. They have a dwindling but still sizable endowment of things the world still wants, even if at temporarily reduced prices. They have plenty of timber and farmland and other natural resources, and can become self-sufficient and decouple themselves economically should they choose to do so. They have high-tech weaponry and a nuclear deterrent in case other nations get any crazy ideas. After all the upheavals, they have ended up with a centrally-managed, natural resource-based, geographically contiguous realm that is not overly dependent on global finance. Yes, the Russian consumer sector is crashing hard, and many Russians are in the process of losing their savings yet again, but they have managed to survive without a consumer sector before, and no doubt will again.

I'm almost tempted to live there. My grandparents' farm, overrun by the Red Army in 1945, is somewhere in that weird, tiny sliver of the Russian Federation stuck between Poland and Lithuania like a stone in your shoe. I'd need a heavily-armed gang to take the farmhouse back from whoever took it over after the hick troops stole everything in it. But maybe it's not there any more - probably it's covered with concrete now, the tyrant's material of choice. Still, life goes on; it's outlasted communism and looks set to outlast Western capitalism.

Though I should say that in the UK, the nutso socialist element must be seeing this as an opportunity to start the Millennium. I have been wondering whether it's possible to take American citzenship while continuing to live here, so that I might have some residual civil rights when my neighbours have lost theirs.

America, see the issue for what it is: not money, but democracy and freedom.

Hold dollars?

Karl Denninger argues that the failed stimulus will lead to accelerating deflation in the US. His prediction is that demand for the dollar will soar and other currencies will collapse instead. He thinks this will hit US exports and the economy will be crippled, so Americans need to hold in-the-hand folding money - lots of it, maybe a year or two's basic expenses! - away from the bank.

He may be on the wrong medication - the current state of the world's finances is a great impetus towards paranoia and depression; but if he's even half right, we need to start making those quiet, regular cashpoint withdrawals and (for non-Americans) visiting the bureau de change. And not living in the city.

Quietly edging towards the exits, before the general panic

Htp: Michael Panzer, for this:

They are taking cash out of the bank in preparation for a long-haul bad time. A friend in Florida told me the local bank was out of hundred-dollar bills on Wednesday because a man had come in the day before and withdrawn $90,000. Five weeks ago, when I asked a Wall Street titan what one should do to be safe in the future, he took me aback with the concreteness of his advice, and its bottom-line nature. Everyone should try to own a house, he said, no matter how big or small, but it has to have some land, on which you should learn how to grow things. He also recommended gold coins, such as American Eagles. I went to the U.S. Mint Web site the next day, but there was a six-week wait due to high demand. (I just went on the Web site again: Production of gold Eagle coins "has been temporarily suspended because of unprecedented demand" for bullion.)

Like I said over a month ago: "this is a time for individuals to make their own quiet plans and preparations."

Deflation, inflation, distress

The Contrarian Investor gives a lucid explanation of the potential consequences of deflation.

In Australia (as in the UK, as I think I showed here), the nation owes more money than it has in savings, so it depends on foreign investment.

If interest rates fall, foreign capital will go away to where it can earn more. This reduces the demand for our currency and makes it cheaper. So goods we sell to foreigners get cheaper, and things they sell us get more expensive. They buy more from us, we buy less from them (or they have to cut their prices so we can afford their stuff). More money comes into our economy; all well again.

Except...

• What if , thanks to decades of spending lots without earning much (and borrowing the difference), we no longer make things foreigners want?

Then we become "distressed gentlemen". As the money runs low, we run up accounts at the tailor and the wine merchant, and write IOUs which we hope will not be presented to us soon. Maybe we begin to cut a few luxuries, but old habits die hard, not to mention ingrained addictions.

• What if they sell us things we can't do without, and won't cut their prices?

The money runs out. Unless we are Royalty, and too dangerous to dun, eventually the bailiffs must arrive. In the modern world, the sovereign wealth funds, perhaps.

What can they take? In Australia, there are mineral deposits the Chinese will want, thinks the Contrarian Investor. Here in the UK, maybe some remaining profitable businesses and valuable technical expertise, maybe patents and secret technologies. And it's not only the Chinese that have been lending us their surpluses. We have other creditors.

Then, as the laden carts depart and the keys of the mansion are handed to the new owners, the decayed gentry become vagrants and vagabonds.

Unless we are too dangerous to dun. Perhaps America is; can we be so? And what if our creditors are not certain of our might? Uncertainty can trigger inappropriate actions. There is a Chinese saying, I believe: fear a weak enemy. Catastrophe can be avoided, but unless our leaders are tough with us now, we will learn a harder way later.

But if the master has become poor, what of his servants?

What if, like me, you're not one whose power and social status protects him from the worst effects? Do you believe that democratic societies can do the right thing? If not, this is a time for individuals to make their own quiet plans and preparations.

September 15, 2008: the secret bank run and corralito

According to Paul Kedrosky (htp: Tim Iacono), Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke scared the wits out of Congress with references to a potential $5.5 trillion electronic cash withdrawal from the US banking system, which would have led immediately to economic and political Armageddon. Electronic money accounts were closed down to stop the flight and collapse.

I said a month later that Paulson looked like a bully. But when Congress threw out the first bailout plan, he had also looked scared-angry, turning his head this way and that, like a bull throwing off dogs.

Perhaps the scare story was true. Perhaps not. Shame it took the ex-head of Goldman to drive the Bill through. I assume that rescuing the banks also rescued much of his personal $500 million wealth.

It's time for us to leave off discussing the affairs of the Gods, and return to our own interests. We ordinary mortals don't have the luxury of that kind of money transaction facility. If the system had gone down, presumably it would have taken our little all with it. And is anyone so brave as to say that it's been fixed?

Be prepared; don't be panicked (as it seems Congress was), but take what sensible precautions you can.

Every little thing's gonna be all right

From what I read, some people are becoming survivalist: storing food, water, medicines, cash, even weapons.

Perhaps it's no coincidence that BBC is currently screening a remake of Terry Nation's gripping 1975 post-catastrophe series, "Survivors". But that series assumes that most people have died suddenly because of a virus, so the ecosystem has not been destroyed by desparate, starving victims. I don't think Survivors is the model we should use. If we are to survive, it'll be together, in our populous societies, because if society breaks down, you and I are unlikely to emerge as the last people standing. Lone heroes don't win; this is a fantasy.

I think spare supplies are a good idea, because there could be some disruption, which could affect the very young and elderly; so we need ways to keep warm, eat and have clean water in an emergency. And it's important to make your home secure against a rise in burglary, which is associated with economic downturns; and not to go out after dark without at least one or two companions. Weapons are another matter: "guns in the home are far more likely to be used against members of the household than against intruders."

Pace the doomsters, the UK and the USA will feed itself. We may end up eating more veg and less meat; and we may be using public transport instead of cars; personally, that would simply take me back to the 70s, when I was slimmer and fitter. Globally and locally, there is enough to feed the world, although not enough to overfeed it or encourage unproductive men to sire children.

Two aspects of the current crisis worry me:

1. The present method of organising resources may be replaced, not by one dreamed of by well-fed Western socialists, but by a cruel, remote, commanding elite as in North Korea or East Germany, who far from minimising scarcity will use it to get and maintain power.

2. The transition from this system to whatever replaces it, may be disorderly and involve suffering for many people.

This is why I think the underlying issue for us is to preserve and strengthen democracy, to increase the chances that both the journey and the journey's end are acceptable.

Survivalism

Michael Panzner finds another useful article, this time by Laura Coffey on making contingency plans for losing your job.

I sent a circular to my clients in the late 90s, urging them to take out redundancy insurance, because I thought the coming stockmarket crash would be followed by recession; but of course I didn't anticipate that the government would use monetary inflation to defer the reckoning (and, I now fear, make it worse). Articles like Coffey's are straws in the wind, I think.

Which crank are you?

In turbulent times, we get an increase in prophets, astrologers, clairvoyants, magicians and mountebanks. Perhaps we can place more reliance on the significance of their appearing, than on the things they have to say.

"Deepcaster", who I think of as the Nostradamus of finance, often refers to a shadowy clique he calls The Cartel; if only one could identify them - or him! But there is some basis for the paranoid - for example, who owns the Federal Reserve does indeed seem to be a secret; though I doubt the chairman strokes a white cat. Here are some of Deepcaster's tips for economic survivalism:

Keep a significant portion of your wealth in tangible assets including Precious Monetary Metals (in amounts subject to timing considerations) and Strategic (e.g. Crude Oil) and select agricultural commodities which the public needs and regularly uses...

Attempt to make, although it may be very difficult, an evaluation of counterparty strength. Regarding options, for example, are they clearing house guaranteed? And how strong is the clearing house?

“Go local” in banking, and commercial, and essential goods supply relationships. “Self reliance” and “local reliance” are key goals...

Develop an investing and trading regime for certain key tangible assets markets to minimize or avoid the impact of Cartel-initiated takedowns...

Stay informed...

Since we're going back to the Seventies, here's Al Stewart's 1973 cult Nostradamus lyric (from Past, Present and Future). There's always a little frisson in old mortality. Speaking of which, Jeffrey Nyquist returns to his Cassandran theme of America as ancient Athens on the brink of the Peloponnesian catastrophe.

I shouldn't laugh too much at all this. The vibrations of the First World War were, I think, felt in the art and music of the years before it; and the millennarian gloom of Eliot's Waste Land (1922) was also only a few years ahead of economic, social and military turmoil. The current flock of seers and chanters may be like the restless sheep before the earthquake.