In Blogging Stocks, September 7:
We're in a rare moment in history where cash is king... My prediction is that the Standard & Poor's 500 could fall at least another 10% from here. I think the economy is weakening and the crisis in the credit markets will worsen from here... this is not the time for a buy-and-hold strategy. But if you must stay in stocks, look at more defensive sectors like food, beverage and healthcare... Gold...
Read the whole item - and see the video - here.
7 comments:
I think I'll go to the pub, buy some krugerrands, nip down to my allotment and bury them in a secret place.
The French say "Money has no smell". Unlike guilt in Portugal, it would seem; or perhaps that would be the stench of official corruption - it depends on the dog you use.
Like the idea of knocked-off Krugerrands; presumably they're only 10% of the real price. Do tell us where you drink.
Gold is now more commodity than haven currency and I'm very sceptical of central bank deposit claims. If you are looking at a long-term haven I'd put it in oil, or get out of the market all together.
Hi, W, and thanks for your view. Is there ever an independent audit of central bank deposits? Or are they like Joanna Southcott's Box?
So I said, I have to go and get all the money and put it under the mattress and Mr HG said No. I am flustered. Is cash king or should I plant wheat?
I live in the real world and do not want a lumpy mattress or the building full of grain in a few months' time unless I must.
Hi HG: The mattress doesn't pay interest! I don't know the rules about depositor protection in Italy - surely there must be some recompense in the event that a bank fails. Signor Antonio has the right principle - diversification.
In any case, pace Panzner's apocalyptic book title, he's not talking about the end of the system here, but he predicts a significant correction. Market timing is famously slippery, but at some stage, there will be buying opportunities again.
In the meantime, during a period of deflation the prudent saver is rewarded. I don't think it will last very long - there are more debtors than creditors, and they each have a vote.
Extra packets of rice and tins of beans never hurt, but the point of making provisions for an emergency is to stop worrying after that. From your account, you live in a cohesive community in fertile territory and a relatively law-abiding country. Most of us would swap places with you in a trice. Enjoy!
Has another cat arrived yet?
No more cats S, though there are two fine tortoises.
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