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Sunday, October 18, 2009

Comparing the Dow with CPI, and with debt


James Higham said...

And your conclusion and projection, Sackers?

Sackerson said...

Ine the Dow/CPI comparison, I think the Dow is still above where it "should" be.

As to Dow vs debt, I wonder myself. I think it suggests a long-term progress away from investment based on savings towards investment based on borrowing and speculation. The current buzzword is "financialisation", I believe. Maybe comparing the Dow/debt with the Dow/CPI would show points where the two were significantly out of step, and this could indicate increased danger of volatility and market collapse? But I just don't have the time and resources - maybe one of your full-time City contacts could think about it.

dearieme said...

At least in the early part of your period, the Dow would also have been paying useful dividends, which I suppose should be allowed for somehow.

Still, not only are equities probably overvalued, but so are bonds I dare say, and property too. So what to do? Fill your attic with "stuff"?

Sackerson said...

Spot-on question, DM. Currency speculation? Land? Oil?