War and inflation

The Daily Mail is currently reproducing back issues from the First World War.

Here's something I suddenly noticed:


Not a fluke:

http://inflation.iamkate.com/

The same newspaper now costs 70p - equivalent to 168 old (pre-decimal) pennies.

That's not particularly freakish: using the site linked above, the general rise in inflation between 1914 and now means £1 then was worth £109 today.

War's effect on inflation:

1914 - 1918: 51% increase.
1939 - 1945: 51 % increase.

The "oil shock" of the 1970s was war by another name:
1974 - 1978: 94% increase.

But inflation is not inevitable.

In 1800, midway through the Napoleonic wars, prices surged 36.5% - but actually fell again over the next 15 years.

In fact, between 1800 and 1900, prices fell overall by 11%.

Money used to be a good store of value, when we concentrated on trade and industry, not war.

Why should ordinary people be allowed to vote?

"The one thing that has emerged from the comments on this blog, though, is that while there is plenty of enthusiasm for pointing out the Leavers' lack of knowledge, many Europhiles are quite unable adequately to describe the nature of the object of their affection."

- Dr Richard North: http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87043

This is certainly my experience in debating with the amateur propagandists of the Remain faction, who often maintain that Leavers were unaware of (or misled about) the implications.

But the same is true of most issues. Whatever the system for informing the public, there will be bias and disinformation, many will misunderstand what they are told or look only at what confirms their prejudices, and many will not bother to engage at all.

Even for the slave-owning weekly parliament of ancient Athens, detailed decision-making was delegated: the arrangement was to appoint people to perform State tasks and then submit them to close scrutiny at the end of their term.

So what is democracy for? I suggest that it is not about the people being wise enough to run the complex affairs of government.

Instead, it is a corrective: when the electorate feel that matters are not being conducted in their best interest, they can force a change in the administration. The Welsh, the Northerners, the farmers, fishers, miners and other workers who voted for Leave may not have had degrees in political philosophy, but they knew where the shoe pinched them.

Democracy is a system for making the rulers take serious notice of the feelings of the ruled.

Technology and socialism

When robots take over much work previously done by human beings, how will the distribution of wealth be decided?

After decades of Western nations "offshoring" manufacturing to the Far East (so causing growing financial and social strains at home), the trend has begun to reverse in recent years, but without necessarily improving the prospects for well-paid industrial employment. Automation is taking over, not just on the assembly line but increasingly in the back office as well.

Now, the Engineer magazine reports on a "reconfigurable modular robot" that can change its shape and functioning to adapt to varying tasks and conditions (htp: Demetrius.)

This has implications for blue-suited management, too: “I want to tell the robot what it should be doing, what its goals are, but not how it should be doing it,” said Kress-Gazit, the leader of the research team. (Over 40 years ago operational analyst Stafford Beer held that management should set goals and provide resources, but leave it to the relevant department to decide how best to use those resources - a lesson still to be learned in many quarters!)

It could be argued that human labour will be re-employed in other fields but that is not guaranteed - did the Luddite weavers find other work in time to avoid destitution? - and the alternatives may be menial and lower-paid. I seem to see a lot of tattoo parlours and nail bars, fast-food outlets and discontinued-line shops in my neighbourhood these days. Billionaire Hugo Salinas Price predicts somewhere (I haven't found the reference yet) the return of domestic servants.

It may become harder to criticise the unemployed when work is not available. The question of economic justice will raise its head.

And at that point we will wonder how to restrict the multiplication of "useless mouths," limitless payouts of financial benefits and social-worker support etc., before the weight of public debt causes the economy to collapse.

Will the franchise revert to property-owners only? Will we need a militia to keep down the unfortunate? Will there be Chinese-style rules on breeding?

Or will Red Santa overthrow the whole system for a millennial age which will certainly never arrive?

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reonshoring-manufacturing-has-begun-what-back-office-services-parmar/
https://www.theengineer.co.uk/reconfigurable-modular-robot/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stafford_Beer
http://www.plata.com.mx/enUS/enUS

Weekend Wonders: Atom-Sized Movie

FRIDAY MUSIC: Key Player - Keith Emerson, by JD

This year has been Leonard Bernstein's 100th 'birthday' and the BBC devoted a few programmes to his life and work. The old black and white TV interviews from fifty years ago were interesting and informative. Bernstein was asked in one of the old interviews if he liked any of the then current popular music. He replied that The Nice were very good.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Nice

Interesting choice because they recorded and issued in 1968 an instrumental version of Bernstein's 'America' from 'West Side Story' It was their most successful single. Several radio stations in the US refused to play it and most commentators 'knew' that Bernstein 'hated' it. But Bernstein denied that he had ever said that and his approval for the group would seem to confirm it.

Bernstein was a very talented composer and musician as well a lecturer on music. I believe his choice of The Nice was because he recognised the prodigious talent of Keith Emerson who played piano, organ and one of the earliest Moog synthesizers in the group.

So this post is a collection of Emerson's recordings in all of its many forms from jazz to classical. I have added also his eleven year old grandson playing piano in Birmingham Symphony Hall with a 60 piece orchestra demonstrating that such spectacular talent runs in the family.

There is also another Emerson composition played by Rachel Flowers; new to me but she sounds even more talented than anyone else in these videos and that includes Emerson himself or Oscar Peterson! There will definitely be more from her in the coming weeks.

Brexit to be completed on time?

The Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab has said he expects a deal to be agreed with the European Union by 21st November.

Political Betting reports that this news has changed the odds:

"On Betfair it is now it’s 62% chance on the market that Britain will leave the EU as planned on March 29th next year."

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/10/31/the-pound-rises-on-the-forex-markets-after-the-brexsec-reports-that-a-deal-only-three-weeks-away/

Scottish Independence: a suggestion to Craig Murray

Craig Murray can't wait to get away from the farce south of the Scottish border:

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2018/10/the-ignominious-death-of-the-united-kingdom/

I say:

"You compare Scotland's position with that of "Ireland, Norway, Denmark, Iceland and Sweden" but I still find it difficult to reconcile your passion for Scottish independence with your enthusiasm for membership of the EU. Indeed of the countries listed in quotation marks only Ireland has joined the Eurozone and now, I think, bitterly regrets having done so.

"I've suggested to you before now that there could be most interesting prospects for Scotland as a member of a sort of Northern League with Norway and Iceland, with almost exclusive collective control of a vast fishing area plus much to learn from Norway about hydroelectric power and energy storage - something which would fit well into the great tradition of Scottish engineering expertise.

"Add Sweden and Denmark...

"You must be well aware of the growing financial and politico-social strains in the EU (doune the plughole, you might say). Why not have a bolder vision for your country's future?"
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See also:

https://theylaughedatnoah.blogspot.com/2014/04/could-free-scotland-manage-economically.html