Raving sane?

"Deepcaster" (Financial Sense, January 4) looks again at the mysterious ownership (and creation) of the US dollar by a private bank, the Federal Reserve. The more one reads about it, the weirder it gets - it's like finding out that ET really does exist!

The conspiracy theory here is that the Fed and other central banks are a cartel that not only inflates the money supply, but has created trillions in derivatives, partly to manipulate the investment markets. "Deepcaster" accuses this cartel of engineering drops in the gold price, just when you'd think gold should be emerging as a natural currency.

He brings in the Amero theory, too - ultimate replacement of the destroyed dollar by a new North American currency, presumably so the crooked poker game can continue with fresh cards.

Can anyone please shed light on all this? For example, who EXACTLY are the owners of the Fed?

If nobody knows or is willing to tell, perhaps one of us should claim ownership - "finders, keepers".

Unemployment B-L-S---

Market Ticker: The Recession of 2008

Karl Denninger reports that the US unemployment rate has hit 5%. He thinks - and it's certainly plausible - that we're already in a recession. Especially if Rob Kirby is right, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is lying about the scale of job losses in the financial industry.

Marquess of Queensberry rules?

One envies the cheerful liberal economists such as those at Cafe Hayek, but will their principles work in a world where other, much darker forces are working? As I suggested in September, there may be those who will use the tools of international trade and investment as part of a vengeful and destructive plan.

Now, Jeffrey Nyquist treats us to another Sino-Soviet frightener, and Nadeem Walayat sees even more potential enemies, who may not refrain from below-the-belt blows. The enemies of the Open Society abide. Are our Western politicians prepared? Will they defend us?

Gold and the Dow

Prudent Bear's excellent presentation "The case for a secular bear market" includes a graph of the Dow divided by the price of gold, from 1920 to 2005.

Taking the present values - Dow 13,056.72, gold $864.80 - the formula works out at 15.098, which suggests that the Dow is still well above trend.

Some would see this as indicating a coming gold spike; but another way to rebalance is for the Dow to fall. As credit deflation takes hold, I suggest that in 2008, both gold and the Dow will drop below their current levels, but the Dow more than gold.

UPDATE

Gary Dorsch is looking at the same ratio ("By the end of 2008, the DJI to Gold ratio might tumble towards 10 oz’s of gold"), but thinks the rebalance could happen the other way, through destructive inflation.

If so (and he doubts that it's possible), Karl Denninger thinks you'd still be better off betting on the Dow, using call options:

So tell me again - if you believe in "hyperinflation" - why do you want to buy the clear LOSER of an asset that metals represent, when you can buy index CALLs and, if your thesis is correct, you will make an absolute stinking FORTUNE!

(Of course if you're wrong and the DOW is under 16,000 by the end of the year, that $20,000 is totally flushed. That's the price of poker - but again - just how sure are you that "The Fed" is going to "hyperinflate"? And by the way, no, I don't think they are - in fact, I don't think they CAN.)

SECOND UPDATE

Gary Tanashian sets a target of $920 for gold, but anticipates a drop-back anytime; but longer term, Julian Phillips can't imagine governments NOT hyperinflating, to avoid the horrors of deflation.

The astrologers continue to mutter and gesture over their charts.

Dead Cat Splat

Some expect the market to drop, but bounce quickly as in 2000. Vince Foster says not, since this boomlet has been credit-fuelled.

His view: housing is woeful, emerging markets look as though they may be topping-out, the Ted Spread is signalling insolvency fears, the 10-year bond rate augurs slowing growth; so cash is king.

Little boxes, revisited

I've previously suggested that you don't need to be too technical, as long as you focus on the reward systems (the cui bono?). Here, Michael Panzner quotes and discusses an article by Nat Worden on the failure of ratings agencies in the subprime debacle.

I think it's in "Jane Eyre": a teacher who wishes to instil piety into a little boy, asks him whether he'd rather have a biscuit or a blessing. When he answers, a blessing, he gets two biscuits.

When recession empties the the biscuit barrel, maybe we'll get authentic leadership.

UPDATE

My beloved recalled it better, and so I've found the quote on the Net:

...I have a little boy, younger than you, who knows six Psalms by heart; and when you ask him which he would rather have, a ginger-bread nut to eat, or a verse of a Psalm to learn, he says: "Oh, the verse of a Psalm! Angels sing Psalms," says he. "I wish to be an angel here below." He then gets two nuts in recompense for his infant piety.’

We need recession, to avert total disaster

In a sock-to-the-jaw article that I think everyone should read, Nadeem Walayat shows the political-economic forces tides beating against our cliffs and undermining our liberty and prosperity. Like me, he sees sovereign wealth funds as part of this process.

It seems that we must wish our own countries a spell of hard times, in order to stimulate the changes that will defend us from permanent ruin.