Tuesday, August 21, 2007
The chef eats his own cooking
News: Indochina Capital Vietnam Holdings Limited is the largest (and LSE quoted) managed fund of Indochina Capital, whose non-executive chairman is Dr Marc Faber. It has just announced that it bought 60,000 of its own shares on Friday. That looks like putting your money where your mouth is.
Monday, August 20, 2007
More on Faber and Vietnam
Marc Faber is, it seems, chairman of a company called Indochina Capital and this report of a meeting in Ho Chi Minh City in April quotes him as saying, "Among emerging economies, Vietnam has the most potential for development."
In an edition of his GloomBoomDoom report dated May 2003 he remarked, "Vietnam... is developing rapidly and will, in my opinion, with its 80 million very hard-working and thrifty people, overtake Thailand economically within the next ten years or so." For those who may be considering subscribing to his newletters, it's interesting to see an example of his reporting style.
In an edition of his GloomBoomDoom report dated May 2003 he remarked, "Vietnam... is developing rapidly and will, in my opinion, with its 80 million very hard-working and thrifty people, overtake Thailand economically within the next ten years or so." For those who may be considering subscribing to his newletters, it's interesting to see an example of his reporting style.
Marc Faber comments on Fed rate cut
Bloomberg today reports on Friday's 0.5% cut in the discount rate, and quotes Marc Faber saying "...it's an intervention... that is not justified [and will] create an additional set of problems at a later date.''
I'm mildly curious to see he was in Danang, Vietnam. And for Faber-watchers, there's news of a new channel featuring his interviews and predictions, on http://www.barreloworld.com/.
UPDATE:
See here for Marc Faber's interview on MoneyControl.com. He, too, recommends selling-out on the ups and staying in cash.
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Another bearish opinion
"The Contrarian Investor" (on Saturday - see sidebar) says sell, too:
"Anyway, we believe that Friday’s stock market rally (in the US) is a good opportunity to liquidate any existing holdings of stocks."
"Anyway, we believe that Friday’s stock market rally (in the US) is a good opportunity to liquidate any existing holdings of stocks."
Doug Casey goes to Argentina
This is getting very 1920s/1930s - Argentina as the home for the jet set. Here's Doug Casey:
...we're at the end of a 25-year boom. It's gone on more than a full generation now. And I'll tell you how it's going to end: It's going to end with a depression, and not just a depression; not just another Great Depression; it's going to be the Greater Depression...
I think what you ought to have is your citizenship in one country, your bank account in another country, your investments in a third, and live in a fourth. You've got to internationalize yourself...
What am I doing about this? I've been all over the world. I guess I've lived in 12 countries now. And out of 175, I've been to most of them, numerous times actually. What am I doing, where do I want to go, where am I living? Well, in New Zealand.... But... the currency has doubled and the real estate within that currency has doubled at least. So I'm getting out of New Zealand. Where am I going now? I'm going to Argentina...
I wouldn't touch Europe with a ten-foot pole...
...everything in Argentina costs between 10% to 30% of what it costs in North America. That's correct. It's that cheap... So you're getting a massive immigration from rich Europeans that can see the handwriting on the wall and like it down there. And I really like it down there. It's just a great society, great society, great place to hang out, prices are right. I mean this can solve most of your investment problems right there, just by transplanting yourself, if you've got some capital.
This may sound like it's only for the really rich, but I have had perfectly ordinary clients sell up their over-priced ordinary British homes and move permanently to the Far East. For personal reasons, I can't be a globe-trotter, but international relocation is happening on a much bigger scale than London to Provence. For a while, I subscribed to one magazine, "International Living", that looks for bargain locations to spend the rest of your life - Panama appears to be a good one, if you dress conservatively and mind your own business.
So although Mr Casey talks dramatically in a non-Brit sort of way, he is backing his judgement with his considerable money; and ordinary types like ourselves currently have options that we could scarcely have dreamed of before WWII. Whether we will always have such options, is another question.
...we're at the end of a 25-year boom. It's gone on more than a full generation now. And I'll tell you how it's going to end: It's going to end with a depression, and not just a depression; not just another Great Depression; it's going to be the Greater Depression...
I think what you ought to have is your citizenship in one country, your bank account in another country, your investments in a third, and live in a fourth. You've got to internationalize yourself...
What am I doing about this? I've been all over the world. I guess I've lived in 12 countries now. And out of 175, I've been to most of them, numerous times actually. What am I doing, where do I want to go, where am I living? Well, in New Zealand.... But... the currency has doubled and the real estate within that currency has doubled at least. So I'm getting out of New Zealand. Where am I going now? I'm going to Argentina...
I wouldn't touch Europe with a ten-foot pole...
...everything in Argentina costs between 10% to 30% of what it costs in North America. That's correct. It's that cheap... So you're getting a massive immigration from rich Europeans that can see the handwriting on the wall and like it down there. And I really like it down there. It's just a great society, great society, great place to hang out, prices are right. I mean this can solve most of your investment problems right there, just by transplanting yourself, if you've got some capital.
This may sound like it's only for the really rich, but I have had perfectly ordinary clients sell up their over-priced ordinary British homes and move permanently to the Far East. For personal reasons, I can't be a globe-trotter, but international relocation is happening on a much bigger scale than London to Provence. For a while, I subscribed to one magazine, "International Living", that looks for bargain locations to spend the rest of your life - Panama appears to be a good one, if you dress conservatively and mind your own business.
So although Mr Casey talks dramatically in a non-Brit sort of way, he is backing his judgement with his considerable money; and ordinary types like ourselves currently have options that we could scarcely have dreamed of before WWII. Whether we will always have such options, is another question.
More on Marc Faber and the bear market
From Friday's Daily Reckoning:
"Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Marc Faber:
Q: How do you read the events as they have unfolded in the past fortnight? How do you think this might shape up?
A: Basically as you know, the US market went up until July 16. The Dow peaked out on July 17 above 14,000 and then it started to slide, mainly driven by financial stocks and by what people call a crisis in the subprime lending sector and the CDO and the BS markets. The question obviously is where do we go from here? Is it like 1998, where we dropped first and then recovered strongly towards the end of the year or is it something more serious? I think it's something more serious.
Q: If you had to predict - since your view is bearish, what percentage fall would you expect in emerging market equities over the next foreseeable period?
A: The S&P has a very good chance to decline by 20-30% and the emerging economy stock markets could drop by 40%. That may not mean that the bull market in emerging markets is over for good, because in 1987 we had drops in Taiwan of 50% and then the market went up another four times, so you can have a big correction and still be in the bull market.
But if someone came to me and said what is the upside on the S&P? We had 1,452 where the high was 1,555. I would say the upside and the big resistance in the market is between 1,520 and 1,530 so the upside is limited. But what about the risk?
What I noticed is investors are far more concerned about missing the next leg in the bull market on the upside, than about the risk of losing a lot of money. And I think, gradually this will change and that would mean lower equity prices and also prices of other assets such as commodities can go down substantially and obviously home prices around the world.
Dear Daily Reckoning readers should be aware...this is a downturn that COULD be extremely long and severe."
"Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Marc Faber:
Q: How do you read the events as they have unfolded in the past fortnight? How do you think this might shape up?
A: Basically as you know, the US market went up until July 16. The Dow peaked out on July 17 above 14,000 and then it started to slide, mainly driven by financial stocks and by what people call a crisis in the subprime lending sector and the CDO and the BS markets. The question obviously is where do we go from here? Is it like 1998, where we dropped first and then recovered strongly towards the end of the year or is it something more serious? I think it's something more serious.
Q: If you had to predict - since your view is bearish, what percentage fall would you expect in emerging market equities over the next foreseeable period?
A: The S&P has a very good chance to decline by 20-30% and the emerging economy stock markets could drop by 40%. That may not mean that the bull market in emerging markets is over for good, because in 1987 we had drops in Taiwan of 50% and then the market went up another four times, so you can have a big correction and still be in the bull market.
But if someone came to me and said what is the upside on the S&P? We had 1,452 where the high was 1,555. I would say the upside and the big resistance in the market is between 1,520 and 1,530 so the upside is limited. But what about the risk?
What I noticed is investors are far more concerned about missing the next leg in the bull market on the upside, than about the risk of losing a lot of money. And I think, gradually this will change and that would mean lower equity prices and also prices of other assets such as commodities can go down substantially and obviously home prices around the world.
Dear Daily Reckoning readers should be aware...this is a downturn that COULD be extremely long and severe."
Marc Faber: India rather than the USA
Here is a quote from Marc Faber and a bit of bio info, extracted from INR News:
"If a gun were put to my head and I was asked to choose between two options - putting all my assets into the US or into India - I would choose Indian equities, Indian real estate, and Indian art. The reason behind this choice is partly my strong conviction that US assets will continue to decline relative to assets overseas, and partly because I can see that India may be at the beginning of a lasting economic take-off phase" ...
...From 1978 to February 1990, Marc Faber was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK) Ltd. In June 1990, he set up his own business, MARC FABER LIMITED which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager.(Marc Faber - A Simpleton's Guide to Economics and Investment Markets, part II )
By INRnews Correspondent
Dr Faber's comments on Indian urbanisation, the need for new infrastructure, and comparison with China, are also very interesting.
"If a gun were put to my head and I was asked to choose between two options - putting all my assets into the US or into India - I would choose Indian equities, Indian real estate, and Indian art. The reason behind this choice is partly my strong conviction that US assets will continue to decline relative to assets overseas, and partly because I can see that India may be at the beginning of a lasting economic take-off phase" ...
...From 1978 to February 1990, Marc Faber was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK) Ltd. In June 1990, he set up his own business, MARC FABER LIMITED which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager.(Marc Faber - A Simpleton's Guide to Economics and Investment Markets, part II )
By INRnews Correspondent
Dr Faber's comments on Indian urbanisation, the need for new infrastructure, and comparison with China, are also very interesting.
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