Friday, April 10, 2009

Prepare for a bond rout

What Mr. Greenspan and Mr. Bernanke have achieved is historically quite unique. They have managed to create a bubble in everything, everywhere in the world: in real estate, equities, commodities, art, worthless collectibles; even bond prices continued to rise as interest rates fell due to loose monetary policy. Since 2007 and 2008, everything has collapsed. But government bond prices continue to rise, and went ballistic between November 2008 and December 2008, when 10- and 30-year Treasury yields collapsed. So my view would be that this was the last bubble they managed to inflate. From here on, the government bond market will fall. In other worlds, the trend will be for interest rates to actually go up.

(Highlight mine.) Read the rest of Peter Schiff's interview with Marc Faber here.

PS: Faber indicates something like the following portfolio to Schiff:

Commodities (e.g. oil, agriculture): 20%
Emerging markets: 10% - 20%
Gold (in physical form): 10%
Cash (the US dollar, for now): 50%

2 comments:

dearieme said...

1)
No index-linked government bonds, I see.

2) I wonder where he stores his gold. He must hope that no-one puts a knife to his wife's neck and says "Tell me or I'll kill her".

Sackerson said...

1. I'm drawn to them - but how will the Govt redefine inflation in future?

2. The trick is not to have anyone suspect you've got anything in the first place. Read Timothy Mo's "Monkey King"?