Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Group-think and disaster

I've just been watching a Horizon programme, "How to Survive a Disaster". One part is about a 1960s experiment, where people were invited into a room and given paperwork to fill in, and then the experimenters started to force smoke under the door.

If alone, 75% of the guinea pigs left soon to report a possible fire; but if surrounded by actors who pretended nothing was wrong, only 10% raised the alarm, even though the smoke eventually got so bad that they could hardly see anything.

Rings bells for me.

By the way, I won't be surprised if the Dow rises above 9,000 points at some point, before the smoke gets too thick.

I see gold's under $900...


Anonymous said...

Interesting. I'm seeing grumbles that nothing's wrong. My own company's sales are up, houses are selling in my town, and stores that were once wall-to-wall in unsold inventory are now back to normal. I figure, if it holds, we're in for dizzying inflation. The muck hasn't been shoveled out yet; if we recover already, every step will be weighted down with muck. The muck has to come out somehow, somewhere, before I'll feel comfortable that things are okay.

Sackerson said...

I share your view, Anon. Someone will pay the bill sometime.