Saturday, December 20, 2008

How will the future look?

Thanks to the glacial catchup by the mainstream media, the public is finally worrying about economic depression, and consoling itself with the thought that we've messed it up for everyone, so at least the Chinese won't prosper and come over here as tourists, overdressed, overpaid and taking too many pictures for their digital photoframes at home.

Short-sighted, I think. On the CapitalistsatWork blog, I comment:

I think we should turn our eyes, not on the Depression, but how things will look afterwards. The East will generate demand as it aspires to the lifestyle we used to enjoy, and meantime we have been allowing them to transfer the means of production to their co-prosperity sphere. So the Chinese factories will re-open, perhaps after some of the light industry has relocated to Thailand, the poorer parts of India, and other neighbouring regions?

And I shouldn't discount India as potentially the real industrial powerhouse of the 21st Century, while China scrabbles about annexing territory for extra lebensraum, water and wood.

I think, by the way, that econinvestguru Marc Faber took up residence in Chiang Mai, northern Thailand, not to pursue a monastic existence (hardly characteristic of the formerly ponytailed playboy), but because he's close to "where it's at", or even better (and typical of this farsighted man), where it will be.


James Higham said...

Dangerous place there.

Sackerson said...

Bonjour, James. I think he also chose Chiang Mai because it's more tarditional, not threatening to come apart at the seams. Besides, he's brave - ex-Swiss national team skier, still rides a superbike.

Ryan said...

I don't think any country in the history of the world has ever achieved prosperity whilst having a population that exceeded its ability to feed adequately. Since China is in the unfortunate position of not being able to feed its own people adequately I cannot imagine that it (or India) will ever become truly wealthy, and therefore powerful. In the end, any wealth it does accrue will need to be spent feeding its own people, and it is the nations that provide that food that will become wealthy.