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Sunday, October 17, 2021

Non-Covid deaths are on the rise in the UK - why?

'NHS bosses are apparently puzzled by the fact that there are, in the UK, thousands of excess deaths at the moment. These excess deaths are not caused by covid-19,' writes retired GP and pundit Dr Vernon Coleman on his website (14 October https://vernoncoleman.org/articles/scary-stuff-you-should-know .)

I noticed this independently and posted an ill-written piece about that a couple of days earlier (https://theylaughedatnoah.blogspot.com/2021/10/death-rates-rising-in-uk.html .) 

Before I go on to that, let's review the pandemic so far. The first registered deaths from Covid-19 in England and Wales occurred in Week 11 last year; first 5, then 103 in Week 12 and 539 in Week 13. Then the disease took off and for the second quarter-year the average ran at a frightening 3,766 per week.

The first week of the third quarter (Week 27) saw the Covid toll drop back down to 532 and it tailed off from there, averaging out at 205 per week. From Week 40 (when officially the 'flu season' begins) to the end of the year it shot back up to an average 2,040 per week, and even higher in the first quarter of 2021 (4,296 per week.)

To avoid arguments about deaths 'from' Covid and deaths 'with' Covid, all the figures are for where the diease was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate. Last year the distinction was not made, but this year the statistics note separately where Covid was the 'underlying' (i.e. principal) cause of death. Having said that, of the 65,535 Covid-related deaths noted so far in 2021, in over 87% (57,152) of cases Covid was identified the underlying cause, so there is not a great deal to argue about.

In the second quarter of 2021, Covid-related fatalities dropped down to 168 a week; but in the third quarter just ended the average has risen again to 577 a week (as compared with 205 for the same period in 2020). Why should this be? Is it to do with the new variant of Covid, or the relaxation of restrictions on the public? Given that the median time from identifying the illness in hospitalised patients to subsequent death is only one or two weeks https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/928729/S0803_CO-CIN_-_Time_from_symptom_onset_until_death.pdf , the infections leading to the third quarter Covid deaths come well after the 'flu season' (ends Week 20) and it must be worrying that we are seeing what looks like the start of a new spike at this time.

Perhaps even more concerning is what Dr Coleman noted above, that if we strip out all deaths where Covid was named at all, we still see an unusual excess.There is a rising trend in deaths from all causes from 2010 onwards, perhaps because our population is increasing in numbers and also growing older; but even ignoring the pandemic, the weekly non-Covid figures for Q3 of 2021 are clearly above that trend:

There is also a total of 992 cases in Q3 where Covid was mentioned but not named as the underlying cause, so if anything the anomaly is slightly higher than shown.

How do we explain this? Is it the indirect result of the disruption to GP and hospital services, and/or of the disruption to normal social and working life and people's behavioural responses to that? Should we speculate that the 'worst cold ever' reportedly raging in e.g. Devon https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/worst-cold-ever-rips-through-6041062 is a sign of immune systems weakened by restricted lifestyles and even possibly by mass vaccinations?

At what point is the cure worse than the disease?


wiggiatlarge said...

I don't think there is any doubt that all of the reasons given have some effect on rising deaths , you cannot shut down primary care for eighteen months to everything except Covid and not suffer the consequences with other ailments and diseases.
The only thing they are admitting to is the enormous, and still growing
backlog for treatment with no sign of any reduction on the horizon, and you have a problem that long term will dwarf the virus, the clapping can begin now.

Paddington said...

In the US, murders, suicides and drug overdose deaths are up over the last few years.

Sackerson said...

@P: terrible. Maybe the f-d up economy has reached the end of its tether.

Paddington said...

@S - that is possible. Loneliness also got to many people.

Jim in San Marcos said...

How about the vaccine killing people? It neuters the anti cancer antigens and two others that they are not sure of what they are responsible for. Time will tell.

Sackerson said...

@jim: I guess the issue is whether it saves many more than it kills or disables, and how do we know for sure? Medical reviews of these things can take years.

Sackerson said...

... I would trust official sources more if they said openly it's a calculated risk, with the odds heavily in favour of taking, but also dependent on age and possibly certain other factors. Blanket assurances and Facebook satire don't do it for me.

Paddington said...

@Jim - they are trying to track everything. So far, the J&J vaccines appear to have caused some non-fatal blood clots, and the other vaccines might have caused a few cases of non-fatal myocarditis in children. In both cases, the incidence of blood clots/myocarditis is at least one order of magnitude higher in people who get infected with Covid.

According to the CDC, in the US, there are fewer than 9,000 people who have died within 2 weeks of vaccination, with none of them being demonstrated to be causative.

As for "neuters the anti cancer antigens", I can find no reference on that at all.