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Wednesday, October 20, 2021

COVIGRID - Covid vs vaccine: fill the grid!

Does any particular Covid vaccine do more harm than it prevents? If so, in what situations?

The fog of claim and counterclaim, emotive language etc leaves us groping for the truth, or at least for the detailed judgment of the person or organisation making the assertions. Perhaps a colder, number-based approach would help. 

I give below a sketch of how we might describe and (when we have enough data) test the stance of any pundit, health expert or conspiracy theorist. 

There could be more categories/grids, e.g. pregnant women, people with immune systems weakened by illness or chemotherapy, possibly different ethnic groups or blood types, social class etc; but let's start fairly simply. 

In each box, let's put in two figures, the first for the risk involved in taking Vaccine X, the second for the risk involved in being infected while having previously remained unvaccinated, however mildly or seriously (we shall assume that sooner or later everyone will be exposed to the virus.)

Would a picture emerge, suggesting when (if at all) it would do less harm to stay un-jabbed?

What would your figures look like?


Paddington said...

The last that I checked, the maximum number of deaths attributable (possibly) to a vaccine in the US is less than 7,000, compared with more than 700,000 deaths.

Similar figures hold for organ damage due to blood clots and myocarditis.

My best estimate would be that the numbers for your chart will differ by a factor of 50 or more.

CherryPie said...

There is a lot of data about vaccines over the years. The Covid-19 data is a work in progress.

As the knowledge progresses we need to take into account the traditional vaccine process and the more recent mRNA type of vaccine.

They are different.

I know some people have focused on the companies that supply the vaccines but it is more relevant to look at the scientists (pioneers) who developed the vaccines in super quick time and understand their science.

Paddington said...

@CherriePie - it is also worth knowing that the basic technique of the mRNA vaccines has been in the works for over 30 years.

CherryPie said...

Thank you Paddington I didn't realise it was as long as that.