Sunday, November 09, 2014

Equity collapse: two views make a market

John Hussman thinks the stockmarket is due for at least a 50% drop. If he's right, that would be the third time since the start of the year 2000 (lows in 2003 and 2009).

On the other hand, Barry Ritholtz shows that the S&P 500 has (with a blip or two including 1929-1933) shown a rising tendency since the year 1900.

As to the latter, I'd like to see:

(a) a correlation with some reasonably fair measure of inflation (can of worms, no doubt); and
(b) a correlation with the discovery and exploitation of fossil fuels

Will it keep up? Who knows? As Keynes said, in the long run we're all dead. I guess we should enjoy the unique era of mass wealth and comfort (in the West, for most, relative to past ages) while it lasts, however long it does.

But - speaking for myself only - I wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket, and certainly not on the stockmarket at these QE/HFT/derivative-pumped valuations.

(Pic source)

Your view may be different - and the correct one.


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