Monday, April 07, 2008

If history repeats itself

A few days ago, I looked at the Dow over the past 40 years and concluded that, on average, the real growth rate was very close to the very long-term historical norm.

What I didn't think to do then, is to illustrate the shape of the Dow if it continues to be as volatile as in the last 40 years. So here goes - same average growth, same inflation rate etc:

It's the volatility that does you in. As Keynes said, "In the long run..."

Matter of fact, if history repeats itself, there's a point around 2021 where in real terms, we're behind where we were in 1967. This time, I will buy beads and wear flares. I'd still be younger than Robert Graves was last time round.

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