Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Fairer votes for the UK (1): adjusting regional disparities

Whether the current voting system is broken or running fine, depends on your point of view. For the Tories it seems to be going swimmingly. For many others, it looks like a pig's ear.

In the first place, there is the issue of local or regional identity vs national identity and governance. The four components of the UK are not represented in Parliament in proportion to their voting population:
 

Scotland and Northern Ireland are favoured slightly (by about 1 seat), and Wales significantly so (by 8 seats). A closer fit would be this (and I give another alternative based on Cam's plan to cut the number of MPs to 600):


There are regional differences in turnout, but doubtless these will vary from one General Election to another, and for different reasons, so it wouldn't be just to allocate seats according to actual votes cast in previous elections. But the differences in turnout this time are noticeable:

  Turnout %
England 65.9
Scotland 71.1
Wales 65.6
N. Ireland 58.1

I suppose the independence issue stimulated the Scots, and perhaps as Northern Ireland's changing demographic continues to steer them into an accommodation with the South their voters may increasingly see the lands to their East as of declining relevance to them?


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Monday, May 11, 2015

Lancing the boil of democracy

"Red Ed" was urged to do it two years ago, now Cam.

Hitchens says (or did, before he was taken off the paperwaves) the same cornucopia of lies that got Mr 37% his unexpected majority last week will swing behind No in the EU referendum, however neutrally-worded the question. I've said the same myself.

The people will vote for the loss of their vote. Probably for Wilson's "FOOD and MONEY and JOBS." Then they'll find, just like Greece, how much food and money and jobs are actually in the mess of pottage for which they've irrevocably thrown away their power to say no.

"And Jacob said to Rebekah his mother, Behold, Esau my brother [is] a hairy man, and I [am] a smooth man."



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Belief and wild orchids

source

I'm no great shakes at chemistry, but for some reason I’ve always found it interesting, easy to understand and the exams easy to pass. Hence my career in chemistry no doubt, but why do I find the subject comparatively easy? Why do you find your areas of expertise easy?

In my case I’d love to put it down to intelligence, but a far more convincing clue is in the words interesting and easy to understand. There is a significant similarity here because we are not usually interested in anything we find difficult, where the learning effort just doesn't yield the hoped for return. So perhaps interesting and easy to understand are much the same.

If we think in terms of conditioning then the similarity also becomes easy to understand. And therefore interesting of course. So I found it easy to imitate the things chemists are expected to do, say and write. I was easily conditioned by these things. 

In other words I absorbed the approved behaviour easily, acquired the correct expectations for mixing copper sulphate with sodium hydroxide or spilling concentrated sulphuric acid on my shoe plus a host of other expectations, both practical and verbal.  

Yet remembering the names of wild flowers is an entirely different matter. Daisy, buttercup and dandelion I know, plus one or two others, but even though I encounter many wild flowers while out walking, their names mostly go in one ear and out the other. So when it comes to the names of wild flowers I am stupid, not intelligent at all.

Yet I do recognise wild orchids such as the Early Purple Orchid because there is something memorable about them. Even though fairly common, people ooh and aah over them, take photos and generally raise their status in the pecking order of local flora. So in spite of my wild flower stupidity I’m conditioned to remember wild orchids because they are associated with a different, more forceful type of conditioning.

So what has this to do with belief?

Belief is also a symptom of a person’s susceptibility to conditioning. It is an indicator of education, upbringing social and economic status and possibly genes. It is evidence that a person is conditioned to respond to certain situations in a certain way, evidence that they were easily conditioned and in consequence they find their beliefs easy to understand, explain and elaborate. As we know, beliefs can be extremely stable, commonly lasting a lifetime.

All belief is conditioning while unbelief or scepticism could indicate some kind of contrary conditioning or simply a lack of conditioning. Or aspects of both. Life is complex.

Does it matter? Of course it does. If we see belief as some kind of rational structure inside our heads then we cannot analyse it adequately. We are controlled by it, unable to think our way round it, unable to see alternatives. The alternatives remain difficult and uninteresting, in stark contrast to the overwhelming clarity of our beliefs.

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Sunday, May 10, 2015

Spoiled papers: the strange disappearance of Peter Hitchens

 
 


I noticed the absence from the MoS early last Sunday; Steerpike joined in on Wednesday; no explanation. Now it's non-happened again.

"Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times, it's enemy action," said Goldfinger.

If it turns out that the country's most-read newpaper has censored one of our most famous and independent-minded commentators, we have breached a new lower limit in peacetime.

We're already the subject of comment in the USA - see Zero Hedge's "Britain: A Functioning Democracy It's Not" (8 May) - and Peter Jukes has analysed the gross partisanship of the British Press.

Perhaps it's not just the Left that muzzles dissent.


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Friday, May 08, 2015

Like I said

May 10, 2010:

"Now, for a short spell, Clegg's playing with the big boys, and they're going to have his marbles and the bag they came in...

"The best that can be hoped for by Nick Clegg, I think, is to do a Blair: sell out to powerful interests who will springboard him into some position less vulnerable to the people's franchise. Perhaps the reward for his long service to Europe will be a seat on the European Commission [...] He, and ultimately his descendants, will be accepted into that modern equivalent of the Hapsburg dynasty that is the nascent power support structure of the EU.

"Or maybe he'll stand his ground, and watch his party get whittled away back down to six seats, a fate David Steel vividly remembers."

Ok, eight seats, but close. Now looking out for the "reward for his long service to Europe".


May 4, 2015:

"We're getting hung up on "referendum now", but until we can secure fair treatment of the issue over-eager Ukippers will be like turkeys voting for an early Christmas. Voting Tory falls into Cameron's trap, and he'll delight in setting up a sure-fail referendum campaign, with the eager assistance of "it's about leadership, Aleisha" Milliband (see that link from 47:03) and College-of-Europe-graduate Clegg."

Ok, Milliband and Clegg have gone, but the outline prediction remains the same. Cf. Peter Hitchens today:

"As for the famous EU referendum, who really thinks that the propaganda forces which got Mr Cameron his unexpected majority won’t also be activated to achieve a huge vote to stay in the EU? And then the issue will be closed forever."

Some may be gloating (a word they use themselves); my mood is elegiac.



"After the battle, at the request of the mortally wounded king,
Bedivere throws Excalibur back to the Lady of the Lake."

(pic & quote: Wikipedia)



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Proportional misrepresentation

The story so far (c. 7 a.m., data from BBC, 1 "other" seat discounted):



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Thursday, May 07, 2015

It Was The Mail Wot Won It?

 
The Daily Mail has an estimated 2 million print readers - 6 million readers if you count Internet viewers. Like the Sun, it seems to think its job is to help rich men to tell you what to think.
 
And now it's even telling you to vote against your principles - even urging you to vote UKIP in two constituencies - as a stratagem to do down your most-hated enemy:

 
Peter Hitchens' Mail on Sunday column didn't appear this week, either. Maybe one day he'll speak out about that.

Iain Dale is mooting a "grand coalition" between Labour and Conservative, which if it happens will be the most cynical political outrage I can remember.

Electoral reform, that's all.


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