Tuesday, October 26, 2021

Epipanicacademic attack - flu vs Covid

This from the Daily Telegraph:

Flu deaths could hit 60,000 in worst winter for 50 years, say experts

More than 35m people will be offered jabs after health chiefs warn that lockdowns and social distancing have led to a drop in immunity

_____________________________________________________________

'Coughs and sneezes spread diseases' was the old slogan; now the implication of the above is we should mingle, mingle, mingle to keep up our natural immunity.

So why does this not apply to Covid?

Or is the warning something to do with what He Who Must Not Be Named has suggested, i.e. that our immune systems have been weakened by having to deal with the deliberate infection by injection of the various anti-CV cocktails?

Tell me whatever story you like - but keep it logically consistent, please.

I'm provisionally prepared to accept that, on balance, I may be less at risk having a vaccination than not; but I don't know where to look for a fully reliable and unbiased quantitative assessment of the relative risks, with appropriate admissions of uncertainty.

If you can't trust us with the truth, don't be surprised if we have difficulty in trusting you.

Saturday, October 23, 2021

BACKTRACK: Featured hits of 1961

Click the link for the record, and news of the time:

1961

Kenny BALL - Midnight In Moscow
Shirley BASSEY - Reach For The Stars
Dave BRUBECK - Take Five
Petula CLARK - Romeo
Jimmy DEAN - Big Bad John
EVERLY Brothers - Temptation
Billy FURY - Halfway To Paradise
Billy FURY - Jealousy
Eden KANE - Well I Ask You
Cleo LAINE - You'll Answer To Me
John LEYTON - Johnny Remember Me
John LEYTON - Wild Wind
Ricky NELSON - Hello Mary Lou
Sandy NELSON - Let There Be Drums
Elvis PRESLEY - Are You Lonesome Tonight
Elvis PRESLEY - His Latest Flame
Elvis PRESLEY - Surrender
Elvis PRESLEY - Wild In The Country
Cliff RICHARD - A Girl Like You
Cliff RICHARD - I Love You
The SHADOWS - Kon-Tiki
Del SHANNON - Runaway
Helen SHAPIRO - Walking Back To Happiness
Helen SHAPIRO - You Don't Know
Johnny TILLOTSON - Poetry In Motion
Frankie VAUGHAN - Tower Of Strength
Danny WILLIAMS - Moon River

1962

Kenny BALL and His Jazzmen - March of the Siamese Children
Pat BOONE - Johnny Will
Chubby CHECKER - Let's Twist Again
Bobby DARIN - Multiplication
Eden Kane - Forget Me Not
Elvis PRESLEY - Rock-A-Hula Baby
Cliff RICHARD - The Young Ones
Cliff RICHARD - Wonderful Land
Leroy VAN DYKE - Walk On By

Friday, October 22, 2021

FRIDAY MUSIC: Paddy Moloney, a tribute, by JD

 Paddy Moloney of Irish tradtional folk group The Chieftains has died; he was 83.

"With a career spanning six decades, the Chieftains remains one of the most influential and heralded music groups to emerge from Ireland - and all led by Paddy Moloney, the charismatic performer at the heart of the group.

"In 1975, influential music publication Melody Maker ran its annual poll running down its best of the year, and there, claiming the honour of group of the year, was the Chieftains, beating the likes of Led Zeppelin, the Rolling Stones and Queen.

"That's a folk group, that performed largely vocal-less Irish traditional music while sitting down and whose image was largely 'guys in the back corner of a pub', beating some of the biggest groups to ever plug in an amplifier."


Paddy Moloney, The Chieftains founder, dies (1938 - 2021) RIP

PADDY MOLONEY VIRTUAL IRISH FESTIVAL OF OULU PERFORMANCE, NOV 21, 2020

The Chieftains also travelled to Galicia on several occasions and shared the stage with Carlos Nuñez in some very lively concerts. These two videos have appeared here previously but there is no harm in posting them again!



Below: Concerto de The Chieftains en Ortigueira 2014 con Phil Cunninghan, Milladoiro e a Escola de Gaitas; and beneath the video was this tribute to Paddy in the comments:

"Maybe that was the last chance to enjoy the live music of The Chieftains in Galicia, at least that was my last one. Now Paddy goes on his way to Tir na nOg, to meet there the greatest bards of all times. Galicia owns you many thing Paddy, as well as all the Celtic music world. Até sempre!"

Thursday, October 21, 2021

THURSDAY BACKTRACK: Music and news from 60 years ago - week ending 21 October 1961

 At #4 this week is Cleo Laine's 'You'll Answer To Me':



Some memorable events (via Wikipedia):

17 October - The 'Paris Massacre': 
    'More than 140 demonstrators were killed by French police in what would become known as the "Paris Massacre", after law enforcement officers fired on a crowd of about 30,000 people who were protesting a curfew applied solely to Algerian Muslims. 
    The actual death toll would be suppressed for more than three decades until the man who had ordered the crackdown, Police Chief Maurice Papon, was put on trial in 1988 for collaboration with Nazi occupiers during World War II. 
    There were 11,538 arrests, with the detainees held in stadiums on the outskirts of the city. The bodies of 74 of the victims were thrown into the Seine River and washed up on its banks later, while another 68 simply disappeared.'

18 October: 'The film West Side Story was released, with its world premiere at New York City's Rivoli Theatre. It would go on to become the highest-grossing film of 1962, and would win ten Academy Awards, including Best Picture.'

    On the same day: The Council Of Europe's 'Social Charter' (not the EEC/EU's) is open for signature in Turin.
    'The Charter was established to support the European Convention on Human Rights which is principally for civil and political rights, and to broaden the scope of protected fundamental rights to include social and economic rights.
    'The Charter also guarantees positive rights and freedoms which concern all individuals in their daily existence.
    'The basic rights set out in the Charter are as follows: housing, health, education, labour rights, full employment, reduction of working hours, equal pay for equal work, parental leave, social security, social and legal protection from poverty and social exclusion, free movement of persons and non-discrimination, also the rights of migrant workers and that of the persons with disabilities.'

    On the same day: '1961 South African general election: In the first parliamentary elections since South Africa became a Republic, the all-White electorate cast more than 2/3rds of its votes in favor of the National Party, led by apartheid proponent and Prime Minister Hendrik Verwoerd. The Nationalists captured 105 of the 156 seats, with the United Party (led by De Villiers Graaff getting 49.'

20 October: 'The first launch of an armed nuclear warhead on a submarine-launched ballistic missile took place, when a Soviet Golf-class submarine (Project 629) fired an R-13 (SS N-4 Sark) missile from underwater. The 1.45 megaton warhead detonated on the Novaya Zemlya Test Range in the Arctic Ocean. Although the U.S. had test-fired unarmed Polaris missiles, the first American SLBM nuclear detonation would not take place until May 6, 1962.'


UK chart hits, week ending 21 October 1961 (tracks in italics have been played in earlier posts)

Htp: Clint's labour-of love compilation https://www.sixtiescity.net/charts/61chart.htm

1

Walkin' Back To Happiness

Helen Shapiro

Columbia

2

Wild Wind

John Leyton

Top Rank

3

Michael Row The Boat

The Highwaymen

HMV

4

You'll Answer To Me

Cleo Laine

Fontana

5

Sucu Sucu

Laurie Johnson

Pye

6

When The Girl In Your Arms Is The Girl In Your Heart

Cliff Richard and The Shadows

Columbia

7

Jealousy

Billy Fury

Decca

8

Kon*Tiki

The Shadows

Columbia

9

Hats Off To Larry

Del Shannon

London

10

Wild In The Country / I Feel So Bad

Elvis Presley

RCA

11

Bless You

Tony Orlando

Fontana

12

Together

Connie Francis

MGM

13

You Must Have Been A Beautiful Baby

Karl Denver

Decca

14

Get Lost

Eden Kane

Decca

15

Johnny Remember Me

John Leyton

Top Rank

16

My Boomerang Won't Come Back

Charlie Drake

Parlophone

17

Michael Row The Boat / Lumbered

Lonnie Donegan

Pye

18

Let's Get Together

Bobby Darin

London

19

Hit The Road Jack

Hayley Mills

Decca

20

Sea Of Heartbreak

Don Gibson

RCA

Wednesday, October 20, 2021

COVIGRID - Covid vs vaccine: fill the grid!

Does any particular Covid vaccine do more harm than it prevents? If so, in what situations?

The fog of claim and counterclaim, emotive language etc leaves us groping for the truth, or at least for the detailed judgment of the person or organisation making the assertions. Perhaps a colder, number-based approach would help. 

I give below a sketch of how we might describe and (when we have enough data) test the stance of any pundit, health expert or conspiracy theorist. 

There could be more categories/grids, e.g. pregnant women, people with immune systems weakened by illness or chemotherapy, possibly different ethnic groups or blood types, social class etc; but let's start fairly simply. 

In each box, let's put in two figures, the first for the risk involved in taking Vaccine X, the second for the risk involved in being infected while having previously remained unvaccinated, however mildly or seriously (we shall assume that sooner or later everyone will be exposed to the virus.)

Would a picture emerge, suggesting when (if at all) it would do less harm to stay un-jabbed?

What would your figures look like?






Sunday, October 17, 2021

Non-Covid deaths are on the rise in the UK - why?

'NHS bosses are apparently puzzled by the fact that there are, in the UK, thousands of excess deaths at the moment. These excess deaths are not caused by covid-19,' writes retired GP and pundit Dr Vernon Coleman on his website (14 October https://vernoncoleman.org/articles/scary-stuff-you-should-know .)

I noticed this independently and posted an ill-written piece about that a couple of days earlier (https://theylaughedatnoah.blogspot.com/2021/10/death-rates-rising-in-uk.html .) 

Before I go on to that, let's review the pandemic so far. The first registered deaths from Covid-19 in England and Wales occurred in Week 11 last year; first 5, then 103 in Week 12 and 539 in Week 13. Then the disease took off and for the second quarter-year the average ran at a frightening 3,766 per week.

The first week of the third quarter (Week 27) saw the Covid toll drop back down to 532 and it tailed off from there, averaging out at 205 per week. From Week 40 (when officially the 'flu season' begins) to the end of the year it shot back up to an average 2,040 per week, and even higher in the first quarter of 2021 (4,296 per week.)

To avoid arguments about deaths 'from' Covid and deaths 'with' Covid, all the figures are for where the diease was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate. Last year the distinction was not made, but this year the statistics note separately where Covid was the 'underlying' (i.e. principal) cause of death. Having said that, of the 65,535 Covid-related deaths noted so far in 2021, in over 87% (57,152) of cases Covid was identified the underlying cause, so there is not a great deal to argue about.

In the second quarter of 2021, Covid-related fatalities dropped down to 168 a week; but in the third quarter just ended the average has risen again to 577 a week (as compared with 205 for the same period in 2020). Why should this be? Is it to do with the new variant of Covid, or the relaxation of restrictions on the public? Given that the median time from identifying the illness in hospitalised patients to subsequent death is only one or two weeks https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/928729/S0803_CO-CIN_-_Time_from_symptom_onset_until_death.pdf , the infections leading to the third quarter Covid deaths come well after the 'flu season' (ends Week 20) and it must be worrying that we are seeing what looks like the start of a new spike at this time.

Perhaps even more concerning is what Dr Coleman noted above, that if we strip out all deaths where Covid was named at all, we still see an unusual excess.There is a rising trend in deaths from all causes from 2010 onwards, perhaps because our population is increasing in numbers and also growing older; but even ignoring the pandemic, the weekly non-Covid figures for Q3 of 2021 are clearly above that trend:

There is also a total of 992 cases in Q3 where Covid was mentioned but not named as the underlying cause, so if anything the anomaly is slightly higher than shown.

How do we explain this? Is it the indirect result of the disruption to GP and hospital services, and/or of the disruption to normal social and working life and people's behavioural responses to that? Should we speculate that the 'worst cold ever' reportedly raging in e.g. Devon https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/worst-cold-ever-rips-through-6041062 is a sign of immune systems weakened by restricted lifestyles and even possibly by mass vaccinations?

At what point is the cure worse than the disease?

Saturday, October 16, 2021

WEEKENDER: Covid Mismanagement - The Smoking Gun, by Wiggia

                                                        

'Smoking gun': not a phrase I have heard lately, probably because it could be applied to so many things today; we seem to be in a sea of mendacity corruption and unbelievably poor governance.

The report from the  parliamentary committee on the Covid handling is just another, well, report. It has no clout, it is just a self-serving pile of paper of politicians' views on other politicians' cock-ups or worse. Why bother? No report or inquiry on anything has had the desired effect. The Jay report on the mass rape of young girls is an obvious case: no report has spelled out its findings in a more forthright way yet apart from the next day's headlines it soon disappeared down that well-worn memory hole; not a single issue has been tackled in any meaningful way, hence the never-ending photofits of the next trial of these undesirables.

The report on the Covid crisis conveniently starts out with the presumption that lockdowns actually work so by saying we should have locked down earlier they cover themselves from any criticism that the lockdowns just might have been not necessary at all, after all Sweden managed well enough with light touch measures as did several states in the US. Lockdowns were never a done deal yet the magic words ‘saving the NHS’ make everything OK like sprinkling fairy dust on us all.

So MPs have decided the mistake made by Government wasn't 'lockdowns kill more than virus', it was not being draconian or fascistic enough - lockdowns should have been enforced before the virus got into the country or even earlier if they could have had their way, despite the WHO stating lockdowns were not the answer...


We can argue till the cows come about what or what not the right approach to dealing with the virus should have been, somehow I cannot see there ever being a consensus, but one thing is for sure: there is a stench lurking behind all this. With the exception of Sweden and a few states in the USA plus a couple of other countries there was a general consensus that lockdowns were the way to go. Was this just a follow my leader approach after China locked down hard and these countries worldwide decided this was the best approach, or was it lack of time and a desire to all be seen doing something, our excuse being to save the NHS? The same NHS that every winter gives out the same 'can’t cope' message.

One thing is for sure: once this route was taken our government or any other wasn’t going to go back and admit it was wrong. All dissent was erased and they carried on spaffing enormous sums of money on failed methods of control as well as shutting down the economy to a degree never seen before. The question has to be why? Despite what has been said this was not anywhere near the worst pandemic we have had - during the last one in 68/69 which I remember, the country carried on as normal - or anywhere near the consequences of the Spanish flu. Despite many including our own PM bigging up Covid as the biggest health threat this century, it simply isn’t. No real answers as to why this was different have been given, but the costs are horrendous and the Swedish model of control has not even been discussed, it has been totally bypassed; that can only be because to discuss it would have been to admit we and many others got it wrong and no politician is going to do that. Claiming to be 'following the science' when different views from the scientific and medical fraternity were refused airtime or any semblance of recognition, and shutting down any dissenting voices on all media platforms, was and is Orwellian.

I am as I have said before not one for conspiracy theories, yet so much that was derided eighteen months ago is beginning at least in part to be accepted as true. The cheap remedies written off as some sort of witchcraft now are appearing in some countries as a method to alleviate symptoms of the virus, again you will not see a change of direction from our experts or even a suggestion that just perhaps they were a little too quick to condemn these cheap remedies, 'cheap' being the word no pharmaceutical company wants to hear.

To me though the worst of all has been the appalling decision to decant hospital patients into care homes. Once more this has not been something we have been alone in doing, it would appear to  have been a coordinated approach; it cannot be a coincidence that so many countries took the same route at the same time. Did no one anywhere query that this might not be a good thing to do? Not one of the medical bodies involved in decision-making, not one eminent medical practitioner, no one in Health England or any equivalent bodies worldwide had a doubt about it all; I find that difficult to swallow. Or did they all take that same position from a global body such as the WHO?

This reveals the fact in the USA, starting around 4.40 in:
 

In Canada……


Across the globe the elderly were either neglected wilfully or there was an orchestrated agreement that they would be sacrificed, an appalling indictment of all those health services involved either way.


In Spain they just abandoned the elderly.


If we believe that this was wilful decisions were made at a high level and coordinated early into the pandemic, somewhere there are people in power who should be in jail by now, but already that part of the general mismanagement, an understatement if ever there was, is being sidelined: 'yesterday's news', 'lessons learnt', 'we had so little time' and on and on.

The reasoning and actions given in the report are amateurish to say the least. 'We had options' is actually said and 'hang on this could be dangerous', yet they all went ahead anyway. It's quite alarming that should have been the decision: if correct, the old were indeed sacrificed for a bed shortage that has been a feature of the NHS for years, the extra capacity supplied by the Nightingale Hospitals was never even used even in a way to provide a sanctuary for the same vulnerable patients. Why? The NHS said it never had the staff to utilise the Nightingale Hospitals, no it didn’t as Covid Centres but it did as overflow general hospitals, after all apart from front line staff the rest of the NHS was at home twiddling thumbs for months on end, even at that later date they could have been put to some use to give safe refuge to the elderly. I do not believe their was no other way other than to sacrifice those care home inhabitants as the result of total inaction.


The tragic consequences of that action will never be pinned on anyone or any group despite the size of the tragedy. The smoking gun will never be uncovered, too many reputations and positions rely on obfuscation in the matter. Already here Boris has said about the inquiry to be held, 'there is no rush to start'; no, of course there isn’t, there never is; it will be a complete waste of time and money as all the other inquiries are, but we are used to that by now, they have become theatre.