Flu deaths could hit 60,000 in worst winter for 50 years, say experts
More than 35m people will be offered jabs after health chiefs warn that lockdowns and social distancing have led to a drop in immunity
More than 35m people will be offered jabs after health chiefs warn that lockdowns and social distancing have led to a drop in immunity
At #4 this week is Cleo Laine's 'You'll Answer To Me':
1 |
Walkin' Back To Happiness |
Helen Shapiro |
Columbia |
2 |
Wild Wind |
John Leyton |
Top Rank |
3 |
Michael Row The Boat |
The Highwaymen |
HMV |
4 |
You'll Answer To Me |
Cleo Laine |
Fontana |
5 |
Sucu Sucu |
Laurie Johnson |
Pye |
6 |
When The Girl In Your Arms Is The Girl In Your
Heart |
Cliff Richard and The Shadows |
Columbia |
7 |
Jealousy |
Billy Fury |
Decca |
8 |
Kon*Tiki |
The Shadows |
Columbia |
9 |
Hats Off To Larry |
Del Shannon |
London |
10 |
Wild In The Country / I Feel So Bad |
Elvis Presley |
RCA |
11 |
Bless You |
Tony Orlando |
Fontana |
12 |
Together |
Connie Francis |
MGM |
13 |
You Must Have Been A Beautiful Baby |
Karl Denver |
Decca |
14 |
Get Lost |
Eden Kane |
Decca |
15 |
Johnny Remember Me |
John Leyton |
Top Rank |
16 |
My Boomerang Won't Come Back |
Charlie Drake |
Parlophone |
17 |
Michael Row The Boat / Lumbered |
Lonnie Donegan |
Pye |
18 |
Let's Get Together |
Bobby Darin |
London |
19 |
Hit The Road Jack |
Hayley Mills |
Decca |
20 |
Sea Of Heartbreak |
Don Gibson |
RCA |
Does any particular Covid vaccine do more harm than it prevents? If so, in what situations?
The fog of claim and counterclaim, emotive language etc leaves us groping for the truth, or at least for the detailed judgment of the person or organisation making the assertions. Perhaps a colder, number-based approach would help.
I give below a sketch of how we might describe and (when we have enough data) test the stance of any pundit, health expert or conspiracy theorist.
There could be more categories/grids, e.g. pregnant women, people with immune systems weakened by illness or chemotherapy, possibly different ethnic groups or blood types, social class etc; but let's start fairly simply.
In each box, let's put in two figures, the first for the risk involved in taking Vaccine X, the second for the risk involved in being infected while having previously remained unvaccinated, however mildly or seriously (we shall assume that sooner or later everyone will be exposed to the virus.)
Would a picture emerge, suggesting when (if at all) it would do less harm to stay un-jabbed?
What would your figures look like?
I noticed this independently and posted an ill-written piece about that a couple of days earlier (https://theylaughedatnoah.blogspot.com/2021/10/death-rates-rising-in-uk.html .)
Before I go on to that, let's review the pandemic so far. The first registered deaths from Covid-19 in England and Wales occurred in Week 11 last year; first 5, then 103 in Week 12 and 539 in Week 13. Then the disease took off and for the second quarter-year the average ran at a frightening 3,766 per week.
The first week of the third quarter (Week 27) saw the Covid toll drop back down to 532 and it tailed off from there, averaging out at 205 per week. From Week 40 (when officially the 'flu season' begins) to the end of the year it shot back up to an average 2,040 per week, and even higher in the first quarter of 2021 (4,296 per week.)
To avoid arguments about deaths 'from' Covid and deaths 'with' Covid, all the figures are for where the diease was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate. Last year the distinction was not made, but this year the statistics note separately where Covid was the 'underlying' (i.e. principal) cause of death. Having said that, of the 65,535 Covid-related deaths noted so far in 2021, in over 87% (57,152) of cases Covid was identified the underlying cause, so there is not a great deal to argue about.
In the second quarter of 2021, Covid-related fatalities dropped down to 168 a week; but in the third quarter just ended the average has risen again to 577 a week (as compared with 205 for the same period in 2020). Why should this be? Is it to do with the new variant of Covid, or the relaxation of restrictions on the public? Given that the median time from identifying the illness in hospitalised patients to subsequent death is only one or two weeks https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/928729/S0803_CO-CIN_-_Time_from_symptom_onset_until_death.pdf , the infections leading to the third quarter Covid deaths come well after the 'flu season' (ends Week 20) and it must be worrying that we are seeing what looks like the start of a new spike at this time.
Perhaps even more concerning is what Dr Coleman noted above, that if we strip out all deaths where Covid was named at all, we still see an unusual excess.There is a rising trend in deaths from all causes from 2010 onwards, perhaps because our population is increasing in numbers and also growing older; but even ignoring the pandemic, the weekly non-Covid figures for Q3 of 2021 are clearly above that trend:
There is also a total of 992 cases in Q3 where Covid was mentioned but not named as the underlying cause, so if anything the anomaly is slightly higher than shown.
How do we explain this? Is it the indirect result of the disruption to GP and hospital services, and/or of the disruption to normal social and working life and people's behavioural responses to that? Should we speculate that the 'worst cold ever' reportedly raging in e.g. Devon https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/worst-cold-ever-rips-through-6041062 is a sign of immune systems weakened by restricted lifestyles and even possibly by mass vaccinations?
At what point is the cure worse than the disease?