Sunday, May 17, 2020

Climate Change - or is it? by Wiggia

There is no doubt that the weather in the UK has warmed up, not always when we want it to but it has. Tthis is not about the long running and flawed argument that we as humans have created a failing natural world, this is just an observation on matters gardening, those observations that you see when you step outside.
This winter has been a classic British mish-mash of , well, weather. From September on it did not stop raining until the lock down started, you know, just when people wantED to go outside after after a long wet and very drab winter - Sod’s Law.
But what wasn’t in doubt was the fact it had been a warmer winter despite some snow and with all that moisture in the soil when the sun came out everything sprang into life, many weeks early in some cases. Tulips were finished long before the end of May, as were Crown Imperials that started showing bud colour at the end of February, and my Delphiniums showing bud colour at the end of April - the first are out fully now.
This is not the first time this has happened of course but it is by degrees more frequent. The weather is changing as it has over millennia, hotter, colder that is the way it works and man has to adapt.
What has also happened - and I did write something on these lines awhile back - is that disease in the plant world is also on the move, both plant derived disease and animal/insect driven. Much has to do with world trade: however stringent measures are to protect a country's biodiversity, something somehow will always get through. The real worries are those diseases that affect agriculture and our natural landscape, but our gardens give a mini replica of what is going on.
The last few years have seen an unprecedented assault on many native species, in modern times Dutch Elm disease could be seen as the forerunner for many more and it has been non stop since, many have not reached their full doom laden predictions, fortunately, many have become isolated to areas rather than go national and some have petered out, not unlike viruses that effect man, no one has been able to predict final outcomes in the plant world any more than the human world with any accuracy, in fact Dutch Elm is one of the few to fulfil prediction as it did indeed wipe out the species, or almost.
This list of tree pests and diseases gives an idea of the attack on our woodlands; not all are as fatal as is spelt out…..
Ash die-back has so far failed to have the effect that was prophesied; doesn’t mean it wont, but it hasn't so far. The Oak die-back is a slower one so again it's difficult to say how far it will spread. Horse Chestnut was an early disaster, killing trees in a couple of years, but it was selective: stands of Chestnut almost within touching distance of diseased and dying ones are still healthy and many areas have no visible signs. A similar threat to London's plane trees came some years back when premature leaf drop looked as though it would finish the capital's avenues, but the sickness mysteriously died away over a few years, so we can never be sure as to the final outcome.
The pests are in some ways a bigger problem. Warmer weather has enabled some species to spread at an alarming rate, establishing themselves in short order and the natural predators that exist in their ‘native’ homelands do not spread with them. A good example and one that I have had dealings with (and they are winning) is the box tree moth/caterpillar: now spreading up from the south of the country it reduces box plants to nothing in short order; for topiary, where box is the favoured tree, it is the end as the affected areas never recover and the topiary is to all intents finished. Hedges are the same, I lost all my topiary last year to the moth almost overnight; you can spray but it has to be repeated many times and if you misjudge that is it - the natural predator in Japan, a hornet, is sadly still in Japan.
Box tree, and Very Hungry Caterpillars
I could do a list of pests and diseases that have hit on my garden in the last few years that would eclipse all that came before in my lifetime, such has been the increase; undoubtedly the warmer weather has been one of the factors in this. 
Even ants are on the increase. The size of their colonies is very much influenced by the warmer weather and their activity is dictated by the same, so we have more ants and more activity, but we should be grateful that we do not yet get Argentine ants that have infested the USA; and Asian super ants, 'super' because they create super-sized colonies not because they are huge, have so far only been located in a few sites in the UK - but they will prevail as they always do. We live on sandy soil and the ant activity already this year is way ahead of any previous and again little seems to have any lasting effect on them, they simply pop up elsewhere.
Pests are also getting an easy ride. The harsh winters that helped to kill off many pests and many diseases are fast disappearing and the resultant early swarms of pests can be seen everywhere; diseases that lie dormant underground and await warm weather to spring into action are not having to wait so long, many appear each year now rather than one in ten.
Many reading this will remember the Leylandii hedging dying all over the country, brown patches appearing and dying back. It killed thousands of plants. In some ways this was a good thing as the Leylandii Cypress is in most domestic situations an unsuitable hedge for a normal garden: fast growth yes, out of control also yes. It should never have been sold for domestic hedging. The disease is caused by an aphid; there are various aphids that attack conifers and although spray can be effective, it has to be at first sign of the aphids, not always obvious, and spraying lengths of hedges properly is expensive and difficult. To achieve trees is nearly impossible as when I lost a row of Italian Cypress some years ago, there were enormous masses of grey/black sooty mould that lives off the sugary residue left behind by the aphids.
One of the problems when dealing with these pests and diseases is the lack of chemicals that can prevent the infestation or stop the spread of disease. The EU for reasons only they know, removed many items that worked in protecting plant life and nothing has taken their  place; to be fair, some were toxic after many years of use and some had questionable long term effects on humans but many did not, so cheap generic chemicals are removed and in many cases very expensive replacements appear.
Yes there are some natural remedies that have worked for years, but many of those are contact only, require frequent application and still don’t do the job or only partly.
Nature has its own way of correcting things, but globalisation has made things much shorter term; nature can’t respond at that rate of change and nor can we. We only look at things from a short term perspective; huge changes have occurred to our landscape world wide over the earth's life - findings locally of fossilised tropical plants show how we in a temperate zone have gone from glacial freezing to tropical humidity; all has been accommodated over time.
Even the evil toxic stuff that man pumped into the atmosphere during the industrial revolution has had the odd plus side: roses, so popular in British gardens in those pre and post war years were suddenly changed into  disease carriers as black spot took hold of many of the popular varieties. Why? The Clean Air Act of ‘56, passed after the great smog of 1952, cleansed the air of sulphur, sulphur being the best chemical for the treatment of black spot and some other leaf diseases: by burning coal we had  unknowingly been spraying our roses with a fungicide for decades.
Arr, the black spot, Jim!

There will have to be a change in many varieties of plant life in any case if temperatures go up. Many standard species and hybrids are naturalised to the current climate, many will adapt, many will not. We will have to find and breed versions of popular plants and trees that will stand the new climate, they do this all the time anyway; it will now become a more intense program or we can simply swap what we grow now for more tropical varieties, that is already happening and has been going on for many years, in agriculture it is standard practice and new varieties of staples like wheat that grow in adverse conditions are being trialled and used on a non-stop program of roll-out.
Climate will always create challenges, it always has. The Earth itself has constantly overcome climate change and so will we. The view of the English countryside as immortalised in paintings by the likes of Constable are but a snapshot of a very short period of time, it was very different before and will be different again; it’s what climate creates.
John Constable's 'Wivenhoe Park, Essex' (1816) - held at National Gallery of Art, Washington, USA

Saturday, May 16, 2020

Coronavirus: The Big Wake-Up Call

Well, we’ve had our VE Day celebration, but was World War Two anything to get fussed about? Not if you share the mindset of Covideniers.
The second Great War killed 384,000 UK military and 70,000 British civilians https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/olympic-britain/crime-and-defence/the-fallen/, in all 454,000 casualties out of a 1939 population numbering 47,760,000 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_in_1939 , or 0.95%. On average we lost around 6,200 per month from start to VJ Day.
By contrast, UK deaths attributed to coronavirus since the first on 28 February have run at the equivalent of over 16,000 per month. The latest ONS figures https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales , bringing us up to May Day, show that something is certainly happening, and the shape of the virus line in the graph below matches the grey line pretty well, so if the bulge is not owing to Covid-19 then I should be interested to hear an alternative explanation. As to the meme that ‘they would have died from something else soon anyway’, the jury is still out; we leave the excess-deaths calculations to the official analysts, and it could take them years to decide.


Fortunately, the curve was heading downwards at last report. The much-criticised Professor Ferguson had forecast around 600,000 deaths if no action were taken (0.9% of our current population of 66.65 million – very similar to the WWII toll); I think it is far too early for the Internet’s neo-experts to use the present decline as evidence that the model was wrong and that nothing much need have been done.
That’s not to say we shouldn’t review strategy now, and not merely because the public and the world of business is keen for a return to what we used to regard as normal. We now have more hospital beds, more ventilators (assuming they are the answer) and more (though still not enough) supplies of PPE equipment and testing kits. That said, there is the possibility of another, perhaps bigger spike later this year, as per the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1919, so spare capacity may turn out to be barely sufficient after all, pace the empty-hospital Nightingale-nigglers. The vital need to maintain our economy, against significant loss of life: it’s a horribly difficult balance to strike.
Did that balance need striking? A crisis develops into catastrophe through a series of forced moves and hard choices. The point of contingency planning and preparation is to sidestep that sequence, but historically, the British way is to let a disaster happen, then scramble to survive and hope for a big helping of luck. If only we had listened to Churchill in his wilderness years… HMG, binge, brewery.
So, among the lessons that are definitely to be learned, one of them is that not all need have been learned the hard way. The UK had two golden opportunities to prepare: first, the studies and simulations here and in the USA going back years, that taught us some of the things we would need; secondly, a last chance to get ready as the virus burned its way through China but hadn’t yet come here.
It’s not entirely our fault. When the Chinese were so ruthlessly locking down Wuhan and other areas, why did they let international flight departures continue with little if any restriction, when this form of transport was known to be a main vector for spreading respiratory disease around the world? Nevertheless, even now, the UK Government is merely considering quarantine for incoming airline passengers. Melanie Phillips contrasts our approach and its consequences with those in Greece and Israel, here https://www.melaniephillips.com/terrible-cost-ignoring-common-sense/ . The Greeks say, ‘Pathema, mathema’: ‘I suffered, I learned’; but it seems that our lessons aren’t learned. even after the pain.
Now that our eyes have opened, there is more we should be seeing. One is the long-standing disgrace of the care home sector – scramble, scramble, goes the Government. Another is standards of public hygiene generally – how many deaths from influenza were preventable, over the years?
There is a personal lesson to learn, too. We know that we are more liable to suffer and die from the virus not just if we are old but if we are obese, diabetic and so on. This disease is now out of Pandora’s box and it’s not going back in. Sooner or later, we are likely to come into contact with it and our best chance of survival is to be as fit as possible. We have to address our weight issues, dietary habits (that can cure Type 2 diabetes in many cases, it seems) and exercise routines (without getting sweaty in gyms). These are things that the Government and NHS cannot do for us; and they could also help us defer or escape other health challenges.
Don’t wait for a vaccine. In the first place, it’s not certain that a safe and effective vaccine can be developed. Bill Gates has what (if I am to be charitable, and discount the profit motive) is a naïve belief in vaccines, despite his less-than-encouraging experiments in mass vaccination schemes in India and Africa; but even he has referred to the need for legal indemnity (see from 16:00 in this video https://youtu.be/o7A_cMpKm6w ) as he contemplates jabbing the whole world. He plucks a figure of one-in-a thousand adverse reactions out of the air – a mere seven million humans – but who knows what the actual casualty rate would be? Remember that much of the world is far less well-nourished than we – and even in our country, many people are technically malnourished, used to eating the wrong (cheap) things. Also, it’s possible that a vaccine may itself trigger outbreaks among the ‘immune-depressed’, as witness the massive measles epidemic among Yanomami jungle tribespeople in 1968 http://www3.gettysburg.edu/~dperry/Class%20Readings%20Scanned%20Documents/Methods/Tierney.htm .
Now let us widen the focus. We have become far too dependent on a system of international trade that has made us very vulnerable. I have read that when the USA opened up its markets to the Chinese economy, in part it was a strategy to drive a wedge between the Middle Kingdom and Russia, both then Communist countries. However, this was exploited by the Western business class to undercut and immiserate their own workers and boost corporate profits, so weakening our economies and throwing enormous debt onto us all -
‘Global debt across all sectors rose by over $10 trillion in 2019, topping $255 trillion. At over 322% of GDP*, global debt is now 40 percentage points ($87 trillion) higher than at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis—a sobering realization as governments worldwide gear up to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. ‘ [* Gross Domestic Product, i.e. total economic activity] https://www.iif.com/Search-Results?sb-search=total+debt+to+gdp&sb-bhvr=1&sb-logid=51481-gqau9z7y7v88l19y  (£)
… but especially the ‘First World’ economies; and it’s not just government debt we should be talking about. Governments can keep rolling-over and increasing their debt issuance, whereas private individuals and corporations can be driven into cashflow crisis with loans that must be repaid within some limited timescale.
 looked at total national debts -  what the US calls ‘Total Credit Market Debt Outstanding’ (TCMDO) – and found that the burden on America was then 279% of GDP; by the end of 2019 this had grown to 347% https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=7h0A . The same report showed that Japan and the UK were far worse off – over 500% debt-to-GDP. Unlike the USA, the UK does not routinely record this ratio and goodness knows where we stood before the coronavirus hit us.
We have been in systemic trouble for a very long time. As debt grows, it cuts into discretionary income. Financial commentators like this one https://capx.co/keep-calm-we-can-bear-the-cost-of-coronavirus/ sanguinely hope for a bounce back, but a wave of insolvencies will start a round of beggar-my-neighbour: who is ready to splurge when the all-clear sounds? So far, the UK and USA have kept things going by dropping interest rates to near-zero, but this is hammering the ability of pension funds to pay annuities, which are generally secured with government bonds. Add in a stock valuation swoon and the prospect of a comfortable retirement flees ahead of the investor.
In a way, the coronavirus was a trigger, or catalyst, for problems that have developed personally and communally for decades. Be prepared.

Friday, May 15, 2020

FRIDAY MUSIC: Pavarotti's granddaughters (not)

Much obliged to Wiggia for sending this first video which set me on a quest to unravel a mystery. The clip he sent me was entitled "Pavarotti's 11 year old grandaughter singing." It wasn't a YouTube clip and I wasn't sure how to transfer it. I went looking for it on YT and found it but with a different title (see below).

So why would it be labelled as Pavarotti's granddaughter? To attract more viewers seems to be the obvious answer but with the quality and the power of that voice she does appear to be 'channelling' the spirit of il Maetro!

Her name is Amira Willighagen and she is Dutch. And she does indeed have a wonderful voice (not helped here by the sickly mush of Andre Rieu and his 'orchestra')



Here is another young singer and, again, the claim is that she is the granddaughter of Pavarotti and that is written on screen throughout. She is called Mariam Urushadze and was eight years old at the time of this performance from the television show 'Nichieri' (Georgia's Got Talent) in November 2016. (The song is "Caruso" written by Italian singer-songwriter Lucio Dalla in 1986. It is dedicated to Enrico Caruso.)



This next video cleverly puts together Pavarotti and Amira singing live and 'together' in montage. One of the comments states that Amira was aged nine when singing live on stage!



Yet another one claiming to be 'the granddaughter of......' (although to be fair it says daughter in the title) This fifteen year old is called Sislena Caparossa from the Dominican Republic and performs Nessun Dorma in this Spanish TV show.



Sislena Caparossa once more, this time singing in the Parliament of the Dominican Republic. I can see from the comments that she was born on Tenerife and it is her father who is from Republica Dominicana and her mother is Spanish. Her voice here is a bit wobbly but with a good voice coach she will become a very polished performer.



Finally a nine year old Lucia Garcia sings for Montserrat Caballé. The longer version of this encounter has captions on screen saying that Lucia had been singing since the age of six and it had been her dream to meet and sing for Montserrat Caballé.



The final video makes no claim that there is any connection with Luciano Pavarotti. So which one is his granddaughter? Well none of them actually. Pavarotti had one granddaughter and so far as anyone knows she doesn't sing!

Friday, May 08, 2020

FRIDAY MUSIC: Hank Marvin, by JD

Last week on BBC4 there was a programme celebrating sixty years of The Shadows, the backing band for Cliff Richard who went on to enjoy huge success in their own right.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000hqn0/the-shadows-at-sixty

For an oldie such as myself who remembers the music from all those years ago it was an enjoyable journey down memory lane. I know everyone hates the BBC and would like to see it disappear but for all their faults they are consistently far better than any of the commercial channels. Without the Beeb I wouldn't bother having a TV.

Towards the end of the programme we were told that Hank Marvin was currently playing with a gypsy jazz band. That set me off searching through YouTube and..... look what I found!

Hank is still enjoying his music and is playing as well as ever. Old rockers never die......







A number of other pieces I wished to include have suddenly been taken off Youtube, perhaps because the BBC programme stimulated a run on them and provoked the copyright watchdogs to respond. So I found some alternatives including Petite Fleur which is not quite gypsy jazz but no matter, it is rather good.






I have looked at his 'Hank Marvin Topic' YouTube listings and this is on the page marked Playlists, under the heading Django's Castle there are 14 videos listed and they all play including those which have been supposedly deleted.


Thursday, May 07, 2020

A Telegram From Mr William Boot

PRESS COLLECT BEAST LONDON

NOTHING MUCH HAS HAPPENED EXCEPT WHOLE COUNTRY UNDER CURFEW BECAUSE OF PANDEMIC PROFESSOR WHO RECOMMENDED IT RESIGNED BECAUSE HE BROKE IT WITH MARRIED LOVER BUT PRIME MINISTER ALL RIGHT AS MOVED HIS OWN MISTRESS INTO NUMBER TEN SHE HAS HAD BABY AND THEY ARE NOW ENGAGED FOLLOWING HIS DECREE ABSOLUTE HE NEARLY DIED FROM SHAKING HANDS WITH EVERYBODY UNPROTECTED BUT IS NOW OUT OF HOSPITAL

PERSONAL PROTECTION EQUIPMENT ORDERED FROM CHINA BUT IMPOUNDED ON ARRIVAL AS NOT GOOD ENOUGH DAILY MAIL ORGANISED ANOTHER LOT DIRECT WE ARE ALL SUPPOSED TO WEAR MASKS AND GLOVES BUT IF WE DO THE NHS WILL BE EVEN SHORTER OF THEM STILL WE CAN STAND OUTSIDE AND CLAP ON A THURSDAY TO ENCOURAGE THE HEALTH WORKERS

EVERYBODY HAS BEEN TOLD TO STAY HOME EXCEPT TO GO FOR SHOPPING MEDICINE EXERCISE NEWSAGENTS OFF LICENSE AND TAKEAWAY FOOD SO MY LEGS ARE GETTING TIRED LOVELY SPRING WEATHER WILL CABLE AGAIN IF THERE IS ANY NEWS YOURS BOOT

With apologies to Evelyn Waugh

Wednesday, May 06, 2020

Lockdown Music, by JD

I thought you might like these three musical 'house arrest' comments:







I have also noticed a new exercise fad - people, usually wearing makeshift masks, suddenly realise they are close to a human and will veer sideways or even jump sideways in horror to maintain their '(anti)social distancing.' It could be a new Olympic sport or even better, a new dance craze: "antisocial distancing dancing!"

I can also offer this link I found via a commenter at ConservativeWoman -

https://lockdownsceptics.org

You will have seenby now that 'Professor' Neil Ferguson has resigned; he obviously thought his own lockdown rules only applied to the little people (most of whom are ignoring them anyway in my experience and observations.) Here is Martin Armstrong's blog on the subject-
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/ferguson-resigns-after-getting-caught-secreting-sex-meetings-with-a-married-woman-while-he-has-destroyed-the-world-economy/

There was a trendy phrase a few years ago - 'omnishambles.' That is now standard practice everywhere and everywhen.

To quote Spike Milligan again "the best way to respond to official stupidity is with...... stupidity!!" so laughter is indeed the best medicine :)

Tuesday, May 05, 2020

Kashmiri separatism and Chinese imperialist expansionism

Birmingham MP Jess Phillips Facebooks her support for self-determination in Kashmir:

'I have long worked with the Kashmiri community to promote human rights and self determination for the people of Kashmir, and will be meeting with the leader of the Labour Party to discuss these issues next week.'

My response: 

There are risks in partitioning India.

Human rights, certainly. 

But have you considered that encouraging political separation may also encourage Chinese expansionism? 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Actual_Control

China already claims Aksai Chin as its own: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aksai_Chin

And what human rights will the people of Jammu and Kashmir have then? Think of the Uighurs: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-50511063
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Previous BOM posts on China's need and desire to expand southwards:

https://theylaughedatnoah.blogspot.com/2008/03/chinas-need-to-expand-territory-latest.html

https://theylaughedatnoah.blogspot.com/2008/04/and-after-tibet.html

https://theylaughedatnoah.blogspot.com/2010/01/china-tibet-arunachal-pradesh-giant.html
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... Another MP pogo-sticking in a minefield.