Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Coronavirus: a storm in a teacup?

Are we making too much fuss over the new virus? To date 910 people have died, which is less than half the annual toll from road accidents in the UK alone.

Provisionally, ‘2019nCoV’ seems much less deadly than SARS. Within China, the mortality rate is running at about 2.3% of the 40,195 infected; the two who died out of 378 cases abroad represent a rate of only 0.5%, though small figures are more likely to be statistically misleading. However, as business site Quartz warns, it’s too early for complacency: during the 2003 SARS epidemic the World Health Organisation (WHO) initially estimated a SARS fatality rate of around 3%, which later had to be revised to almost three times higher. Remember, 89% of coronavirus cases have so far neither died nor recovered.

Still, only two deaths have happened outside mainland China. It would be nice to reassure ourselves that ‘it can’t happen here’ and there is a suggestion that some ethnic groups may be more susceptible. Russia Insider cites a Chinese scientific study on the 2009 ‘swine flu’ pandemic that felt ethnicity might be one of the factors determining vulnerability to the H1N1 virus; and a new piece of research has tentatively (awaiting peer review) indicated that the alveoli (lung cells) of ‘Asian males’ have more receptors to which 2019nCoV can bind, so making those people more likely to succumb.

However, there may be other and possibly more significant predictors. A 30 January paper in The Lancet, looking at 99 ‘Wu flu’ patients in Wuhan’s Jinyintan Hospital, noted that they tended to be older (average age 55 years) and predominantly (two-thirds) male; and half of the sufferers had existing chronic illnesses. The risk pattern resembled that for viral pneumonia generally, and as with the latter, smoking may be a factor (52% of Chinese men smoke; among women, only 3% but they are often exposed to second-hand smoke.) Anybody here fit the profile?

The spread into the rest of the world is in its early days. The symptom-free incubation period is said to be about two weeks and although it’s currently thought that the virus can’t be passed on during this stage we are still learning. Besides, when exactly does one move onto the infectious stage? Charles Hugh Smith, who was predicting a pandemic a week ago, repeated his warning on Sunday, suggesting that governments are concerned to pretend for the sake of economic stability that everything is under control. In that context, it seems both understandable and yet near-insane that the WHO should urge that travel restrictions not be imposed.

Smith’s article gives reasons to disbelieve official assurances. It’s also worth noting that part of the Chinese strategy for containment was to extend the Lunar New Year holiday to 10 February in many local areas, so what happens now the great back-to work has begun? Many people must be desperate to start earning money again and so they have an incentive to ignore a ‘bit of a sniffle’.

Even if the fatality rate is indeed relatively low, the rate at which infection can spread appears to be high, so that a small percentage of a large number could result in a high victim count. In this country we have very good medical facilities but even the best could be overwhelmed by demand, as happened in Wuhan. The UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock is therefore right to label the risk to Britain as ‘serious and imminent’ – a declaration that empowers him to use force if necessary to prevent individuals absconding from 14-day quarantine, as one of them was reportedly threatening to do.

A stitch in time… if the crisis got out of hand stringent measures would demand to be employed. There are allegations that the quarantine effort in China extends to welding sufferers’ house doors shut, and herding others into guarded camps with inadequate medical care, just to stop the viral wildfire spreading. One Twitter user claims that a Hubei woman was shot dead while trying to get through a protective blockade. What would we do?

Let's do whatever we can not to have to find out.

Monday, February 10, 2020

Hey Joe: Evolution of a folk song

The Wikipedia entry on this famous song is here. It names three other songs as inspirations:

1. Niela Miller: 'Baby, Please Don't Go to Town' (1955):



Lyrics (found here):

Baby, what you’re gonna do in town?
Baby, what you’re gonna do in town?
I’m gonna sit at a bar with my feet tucked in,
Drinkin’ all the beer and whiskey and gin,
And I’m lookin’ at the young men always hangin’ ’round,
Lookin’ at the young men always hangin’ ’round.

Baby, what you’re gonna do in town?
Baby, what you’re gonna do in town?
I’m gonna talk to those young men very soon,
All to-night till to-morrow noon,
And tell ’em how my man, he puts me down,
Tell ’em how my man, he really puts me down.

Baby, please, don’t go to town.
Baby, please, don’t go to town.
’Cause when you’re flirtin’ and full of gin,
One of those boys is gonna do you in,
And your man, he won’t be around,
Your own man, he won’t be around.

2. Boudleaux Bryant's 'Hey Joe', recorded by Carl Smith in 1953:



Lyrics (from here):

Hey Joe, where'd you find that pearly-girly?
Where'd you get that jolly-dolly?
How'd you rate that dish I wish was mine?

Hey Joe, she's got skin that's creamy-dreamy
Eyes that look so lovey-dovey
Lips as red as cherry-berry wine

Now listen Joe, I ain't no heel
But old buddy let me tell you how I feel
She's a honey, she's a sugar-pie
I'm warning you I'm gonna try to steal her from you

Hey Joe, though we've been the best of friends
This is where our friendship ends
I gotta have that dolly for my own

Hey Joe, come on let's be buddy-duddy
Show me you're my palsy-walsy
Introduce that pretty little chick to me

Hey Joe, quit that waiting, hesitating
Let me at her, what's the matter
You're as slow as any Joe can be

Now come on Joe, let's make a deal
Let me dance with her to see if she is real
She's the cutest girl I've ever seen
I'll tell you face to face I mean to steal her from you

Hey Joe, now we'll be friends till the end
This looks like the end, my friend
I gotta have that dolly for my own

3. A song generally known as 'Little Sadie' but appearing under various titles, the earliest being a lyric from the Ozarks,  'Bad Lee Brown' (1922) partially written down in 1948:

Last night I was a-makin' my rounds,
Met my old woman an' I blowed her down,
I went on home to go to bed,
Put my old cannon right under my head.

Jury says murder in the first degree,
I says oh Lord, have mercy on me!
Old Judge White picks up his pen,
Says you'll never kill no woman ag'in.

and another version recorded in 1930 by Clarence Ashley as 'Little Sadie'



Lyrics (from Lyric Find):

Went out one night for to make a little round
I met little Sadie and I shot her down
Went back home and I got in my bed
Forty four pistol under my head

Wake up next morning 'bout a half past nine
The hacks and the buggies all standing in line
Gents and the gamblers standing all round
Taking little Sadie to her burying ground

Then I begin to think what a deed I'd done
I grabbed my hat and away I run
Made a good run but a little too slow
They overtook me in Jericho

I was standing on the corner, reading the bill
When up stepped the sheriff from Thomasville
He said, young man, ain't your name Brown?
Remember the night you shot Sadie down?

I said, yes, sir, my name is Lee
I murdered little Sadie in the first degree
And first degree and the second degree
If you got any papers, won't you read 'em to me?

They took me downtown and dressed me in black
Put me on the train and started me back
They crammed me back in that Thomasville jail
And I had no money for to go my bail

That judge and the jury, they took their stand
The judge had the papers in his right hand
Forty one days and forty one nights
Forty one years to wear the ball and the stripes

'Little Sadie' is a narrative and focuses on the murderer's escape, capture and trial; Bryant's 'Hey Joe' is cast as a one-sided conversation but is about the lust for someone else's girl, without the element of tragic consequences (though we don't hear the boyfriend's response to the proposition!)

Of the three, Niela Miller's seems closest to what came next, because it includes themes of infidelity and death, encapsulating them in a moment of foreboding. Her rendition conveys that histrionic note of an almost unavoidable tragedy about to occur, although as she herself says in a comment thread on Youtube (ranging from 2017 to late 2019), comparing her song to Billy Roberts':

"... my song ended with hope. His ended with murder."

Billy Roberts - see also https://heyjoeversions.wordpress.com/more-about-billy-roberts/

'Hey Joe' was written in Greenwich Village, New York and copyrighted in 1962 by her one-time boyfriend, Billy Roberts. All the elements are here: infidelity, jealousy, murder by pistol, conversation (this time two-way, with a bypasser). The narrative is crisply contained in two snapshots: the moment of intention, and then after the event. Roberts was then busking on the streets and in the coffee houses of New York.

He then moved to San Francisco and in 1965 discovered that his song had been pirated, adapted and commercially released by a Southern Californian 'garage' band called The Leaves. The odd riff is echoed in Hendrix later.



Lyrics ( from here):

Hey Joe, where you goin' with that gun in your hand?
I said hey Joe where you goin' with that gun in your hand?
I'm going out to find my woman now, she's been runnin' around with some other man
I said I'm going out and find my woman now she's been runnin' around with some other man

Well hey Joe now what are you gonna do?
Well hey Joe tell me what are you gonna do?
Well I guess I'll shoot my woman now, that's what I'll do
Well I guess I'll shoot them both before I'm through

Well hey Joe tell me where are you gonna go?
Well hey Joe I said where are you gonna go?
Well I guess I'll go down to my place in Mexico
Said I guess I'll go down to where a man can be free
And there ain't gonna be no hangman's ropes put around me

The rendition - thrashy - is at odds with the melancholy essence of the lyric.

Then we come to Hendrix - the version everyone remembers, first recorded as a single in October 1966 with his band 'The Jimi Hendrix Experience'; melancholy, dramatic, with backing vocalisation and the superconfident, powerful electric guitar of the master musician:


Lyrics (from Musicmatch)

Hey Joe, where you goin' with that gun in your hand?
Hey Joe, I said where you goin' with that gun in your hand?
Alright.
I'm goin down to shoot my old lady
You know I caught her messin' 'round with another man.
I'm goin' down to shoot my old lady
You know I caught her messin' 'round with another man.
And that ain't too cool.
(Ah-backing vocal on each line)
Uh, hey Joe, I heard you shot your woman down
You shot her down now.
Uh, hey Joe, I heard you shot you old lady down
You shot her down to the ground. Yeah!
Yes, I did, I shot her
You know I caught her messin' 'round
Messin' 'round town.
Uh, yes I did, I shot her
You know I caught my old lady messin' 'round town.
And I gave her the gun and I shot her!
Alright
(Ah! Hey Joe)
Shoot her one more time again, baby!…

AFTERMATH

In this later (can't find exactly when) version by Roberts himself, the introductory chords are as used by Hendrix, and the song ends with more instrumental, wordlessly savouring the tragedy.



Lyrics (selected from here):

Hey Joe, where you goin' with that gun in your hand
Hey Joe, I said where ya goin' with that gun in your hand

I'm goin' down to shoot my old lady
You know I caught her messin' 'round with another man
I'm goin' down to shoot my old lady
You know I caught her messin' 'round with another man
Huh, and that ain't too cool

Hey Joe, I heard you shot your woman down
You shot her down down
Hey Joe, I heard you shot your lady down
You shot her down near the ground

Yes, I did, I shot her
You know I caught her messin' 'round, messin' 'round town
Yes, I did, I shot her
You know I caught my old lady messin' 'round town
And I gave her the gun, I shot her

In 1968, Frank Zappa's The Mother Of Invention parodied the song, the Leaves' hasty tempo, the Beatles' 1967 'Sergeant Pepper' album cover and the by then well-established 'flower power' culture of San Francisco, in their own album 'We're Only In It For The Money', as 'Flower Punk':


Lyrics (from here):

Hey Punk, where you goin' with that flower in your hand?
Hey Punk, where you goin' with that flower in your hand?

Well, I'm goin' up to Frisco to join a psychedelic band
I'm goin' up to Frisco to join a psychedelic band

Hey Punk, where you goin' with that button on your shirt?
Hey Punk, where you goin' with that button on your shirt?

I'm goin' to the love-in to sit & play my bongos in the dirt
Yes, I'm goin' to the love-in to sit & play my bongos in the dirt

Hey Punk, where you goin' with that hair on your head?
Hey Punk, where you goin' with that hair on your head?

I'm goin' to the dance to get some action, then I'm goin' home to bed
I'm goin' to the dance to get some action, then I'm goin' home to bed

Hey Punk, where you goin' with those beads around your neck?
Hey Punk, where you goin' with those beads around your neck?

I'm goin' to the shrink so he can help me be a nervous wreck .

... dissolving into aimless mumbling hippie-chatter at the end.
_________________________________________________________________________

Finally, back to Niela Miller: here are some of the things she says on that YouTube thread.

We have to remember that Roberts didn't simply purloin her song but adapted elements in it, and musicians have always been inspired and borrowed from others (and even their own previous works), so as I once saw (on TV) Mick Jagger explain to a child, once you've made a song other people can do what they like with it... but at least we can credit Miller with her part in the evolution of this wonderful piece:

Sunday, February 09, 2020

Hypocrisy Means Nothing to the Bubble, by Wiggia

"John Prescott takes seat in House of Lords. The new peer, previously opposed to the Lords 'flunkery', justifies his move because 'there's a lot to hold the government to account for' "   





One of the obvious pluses of social media is the alternative version of an event being given air, something the MSM would only show with a big prompt to show they are still on top of a current story.

Many cases of redacting, for that is what it is, are carried out with orders from above. For example, the Gilets Jaunes movement would be all but invisible were it not for social media. The scale of a near eighteen-month old protest has never been given any coverage except on social media, as Europe-wide a 'D notice' was issued preventing anyone else from getting ideas above their station. This was not the fault of the media as they had no say in what was a covert instruction.

Yet despite small cracks opening in the media over this movement they still treat it as a minor irritant ‘last weekend in Paris’ as if the other eighteen months of protest had never happened.

There's nothing new in any of this other than the world wide web reveals another side to many stories that is in direct conflict with the mainstream news, something that pre-web we would  have remained in blissful ignorance about and just accepted what was put before us.

The grooming and rape of young girls in many English towns by mainly Pakistani muslim men was a classic case that was kept under wraps for reasons that only those doing so could really believe was for the ‘good’. Chiselling out the truth took bravery and a lot of work by an individual newspaper, The Times, and a few individuals that were pilloried for telling the truth. Politicians still want it to go away for reasons various, the hypocrisy in their statements on the matter is something to behold.

It could be said that social media creates a situation where those found wanting in the truth stakes are revealed and they then revert to outright lying rather than give cogent reasons for their past inactions. It now seems this behaviour is endemic within the bubble of public servants, and yet despite the evidence that they are lying or at fault over cases in many fields, they still refuse to do the decent thing and resign or even show contrition. The web has revealed these people but failed to remove them or even stop their continuing malfeasance going forward; the bubble protects them against all.

Students have always had a rebellious side which was backed up by action of some sort or another, and if they were not rebelling they were seeing how many of them could be fitted into a Mini or a telephone box - the latter is now sadly so much last year - and they engage in some of the most ridiculous acts without any sense of shame at all. This is wonderful, the reverse ferret afterwards from so-called educated students beggars belief .

Two students at St John’s College wrote to Andrew Parker, the principal bursar, this week requesting a meeting to discuss the protesters’ demands, which are that the college “declares a climate emergency and immediately divests from fossil fuels”. They said that the college, the richest in Oxford, has £8 million of its £551 million endowment fund invested in BP and Shell.

Professor Parker responded with a provocative offer: “I am not able to arrange any divestment at short notice,” he wrote. “But I can arrange for the gas central heating in college to be switched off with immediate effect. Please let me know if you support this proposal.”

One of the students wrote back and said he would present the proposal but he didn’t think Parker was being appropriately serious. Professor Parker responded to that note saying, “You are right that I am being provocative but I am provoking some clear thinking, I hope. It is all too easy to request others to do things that carry no personal cost to yourself. The question is whether you and others are prepared to make personal sacrifices to achieve the goals of environmental improvement (which I support as a goal).” The best part of the story is the response from the organizer of the protest:
Fergus Green, the organiser of the wider protest, who is studying for a master’s degree in physics and philosophy at Balliol College, said: “This is an inappropriate and flippant response by the bursar to what we were hoping would be a mature discussion. It’s January and it would be borderline dangerous to switch off the central heating.”

The late Tom Wolfe was brilliant in his writings exposing hypocrisy in the political classes…



As before, politicians say one thing and do another on such a daily basis it has become nigh impossible to believe anything they say. The latest cause célèbre for politicos is climate change: in the short time since the election and the beginning (?) of Brexit there has been a big hole to fill in the news agenda and climate change is the chosen hobby horse. Boris has already done a volte-face on several items - hardly surprising to us - but his sudden affection for all things green is all-consuming: probably he is keeping his green girlfriend happy while impoverishing the rest of us if it all comes to pass. I particularly liked this passage as an example of how hypocrites block out the obvious to suit their agendas…..

“We are told that to be healthy we must sacrifice, discipline ourselves, that we must effectively be athletes in training (or, in Greek, ascetics): no saturated fat, no high fructose corn syrup, stay away from carbohydrates and gluten, no GMOs or pesticide-laden crops—instead, eat large quantities of kale and sustainably-harvested saltwater fish, and you will live forever. In fact, they say, we ought to tax or outright ban certain foods that are less than healthy, and suddenly the price of your large soda goes up 12 percent. But any suggestion that other appetites might need to be curbed or controlled—that, say, the sexual appetite, which affects not only the health and well-being of the parties involved but also has the awesome potential to bring new human beings into the mix—is met with howls of “Keep the government out of my bedroom!” When asked why the government should be allowed into your kitchen but not into your bedroom, they will only scoff."

Should we be surprised? Hardly; it is meat and veg to these people; or should I have said just veg and 'got down with' the 'woke'? The recent Davos meeting was a wonderful example of a gathering of those who would have us do as they say yet not conform themselves. The speeches themselves were  an example of the art of the hypocrite at its zenith: all arrived by private plane and when called on it, all said they had no other way to get there in their busy schedules. Many of course retreated to the phrase of ‘ it will be offset by buying carbon credits’ - so that is all right, then; we of course without the  wealth to buy carbon credits will have to stay at home, wear hessian shirts and rub sticks together, and power will be generated by us all having personal hamster wheels. Not that anyone actually knows what carbon credits are but they sound good and the wealthy can buy them.

This is Elizabeth Warren aka Pocahontas after making a speech on climate change and urging us all to climb aboard the green bus: ‘it is real,’ she said.


You really couldn’t make it all up, or could you !

Saturday, February 08, 2020

ART: Art Forgery, by JD

This post originally appeared on Nourishing Obscurity in 2011

This is El Quitasol by Francisco de Goya y Lucientes (1746 – 1828)

It hangs in the Museo del Prado in Madrid.



Or is it?

The more perceptive among you will have realised that there is something not quite right about it, apart from the fact that it is not finished.

In fact it is a copy which I did a few years ago and it is stuck with blu-tak to the wall of my studio.

You can see the real thing in the Prado web pages.

Reproductions of paintings, whether in books or on your screens, are all reduced to the same size, more or less. As well as being difficult to judge the scale of any picture it is also hard to discern the qualities which make great art great art.

This is very useful for forgers because most people have never seen great art in the galleries of the world and most people, if truth be told, cannot tell the difference between an original and a copy.

It may surprise you to know that art experts very often cannot tell the difference either.

During the 1980s, John Myatt became involved in “the biggest art fraud of the 20th century” after he had advertised in Private Eye offering ‘Genuine Fakes for £150 and £200’.

This turned into a legitimate business until Professor Drewe turned up……



After spending time in prison, Myatt continued painting in the styles of famous painters and has been rewarded with his own TV shows ‘A Brush With Fame’ and ‘Mastering The Art’.

The message is clear- never trust an ‘expert’!

A more important message is: if you buy art as an investment, you are buying it for the wrong reason; remember that investments can go down as well as up. And if you lose money as a result of fraud then you were a willing accomplice in that fraud, as with any fraud, believing that you were somehow going to be enriched from your ‘investment’.

If John Myatt deserved a prison term for his ‘crime’ then the ‘experts’ who authenticated his work should also have been imprisoned alongside him.

The greatest forger of them all was Salvador Dalí (1904 – 1989).

He was a forger of paintings and prints by none other than Salvador Dalí. The Artexperts website explains how two Spanish painters, Manuel Pujol Baladas and Isidor Bea, worked for Dalí and his wife Gala in creating many of his paintings from 1955 onwards.

They also attempt to explain the difference between a forgery and a fake:

'The difference between a forgery and a fake in the case of Dali is quite simple…in the case of the forgeries, Dali did not consent for the art piece to be made, and most likely knew nothing about it. In the case of fakes, Dali most likely approved of or requested that they be made in his name. Neither are as valuable as a genuine Dali, however, a fake may hold some significant value if it was created under his direction and bears his authentic signature.'

But they are using the signature as a validation. They are not evaluating the artwork itself and are assessing artistic value, and hence financial value, on the basis of the signature alone.

So, are art collectors nothing more than very rich autograph hunters?

The question that is often asked is why would Dalí do such a thing and the answers most commonly given are his greed and vanity. It was a fellow surrealist, the poet André Breton who gave him the name Avida Dollars, an anagram of his name.

But I believe the answer is much simpler than that: what could be more surrealistic than colluding in the forgery of your own artworks? Is that not exactly what a Surrealist artist would do, it being perfectly in tune with the spirit of Surrealism!

Footnote:

I have a Renoir for sale. It is unfinished but you can make me an offer.


Friday, February 07, 2020

FRIDAY MUSIC: Monteverdi, by JD

Claudio Giovanni Antonio Monteverdi (15 May 1567 (baptized) -- 29 November 1643) was an Italian composer, gambist, and singer.

Monteverdi's work, often regarded as revolutionary, marked the transition from the Renaissance style of music to that of the Baroque period. He developed two individual styles of composition -- the heritage of Renaissance polyphony and the new basso continuo technique of the Baroque. Monteverdi wrote one of the earliest operas, L'Orfeo, an innovative work that is still regularly performed. He was recognized as an innovative composer and enjoyed considerable fame in his lifetime.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claudio_Monteverdi











Thursday, February 06, 2020

ART: Norman Cornish, by JD

A version of this post appeared on Nourishing Obscurity in 2014

Norman Cornish was the last of ‘The Pitmen Painters.’

In order to understand how and why a humble coalminer with very little in the way of formal education would think of taking up painting after retiring from work, you should read the post I did about the Pitmen Painters. (The pictures have disappeared from that post also but it is the text which is important): http://www.nourishingobscurity.com/2011/08/pitmen-painters-and-the-big-society/

It was a very different world back then before the two world wars, a world which is completely ignored by historians. It doesn’t fit into their cosy politicised view of history.

Norman Cornish, 'Miners on the Pit Road', ca. 1964


Norman Cornish was born in 1919 in Spennymoor, Co. Durham. He began his working life as a miner at the age of fourteen in the nearby Dean and Chapter Colliery at Ferryhill. All his life Norman drew and painted, winning his first art prize at the age of four, and away from the pits he was a member of The Spennymoor Settlement project which provided educational support for working people.

In 1966, after 33 years of working underground, Norman left the pits. With the continuing decline of the industry, and partly because he was suffering from a worsening back complaint, he took the great risk of living by his painting.

That it was a successful move is irrefutable. He was the subject of several television films, had countless exhibitions, received and carried out numerous commissions, (notably the County Hall, Durham, mural of the Miners’ Gala) and was the last survivor of the Spennymoor Settlement project.

The BBC profile of Norman Cornish from 2011 is here-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-14379183


Wednesday, February 05, 2020

Corralling Corona

It’s not about how the infection started, but how it can be stopped, and what happens if it can’t. A new study says that the Wuhan virus is around three times more contagious than influenza: on average, each person infects 4.1 others. Mathematically, if this cycle were repeated 17 times, it would cover the whole population of the planet. Hawaii-based writer Charles Hugh Smith offers reasons for thinking that a pandemic is virtually inevitable and that, because of the globalised economy, it could trigger a world economic depression.

How lethal is it? It’s too early to say: at last count (5 February, 06:23), the tracker at Johns Hopkins University says there are 24,551 cases (99% of them in China) and so far 910 people have recovered versus 493 who have died. If it’s like SARS, the mortality rate will be under ten per cent, possibly far lower. However, in Hubei province, where the outbreak began, while 520 have recovered, 479 have died (i.e. most of the total victims to date). The New York Times reports that Wuhan residents blame the high toll there on the fact that many sufferers have had to be turned away by overstretched clinics; hence the frantic hospital-building program.

Can we protect ourselves? The demand for face masks is so high that rogue traders are offering dud copies and some people are using whatever they can find to cover their mouths and noses. Yet even the real thing offers limited protection: viruses are far smaller than bacteria – in the case of coronaviruses, about one-eighth the size – so some may slip through the fibre barrier. Having said that, a paper published in Nature three years ago says that coating the mask in salt greatly improves its filtering power; if that really does work, it offers a quick and cheap improvement – though we must remember that the virus can also be transmitted by contact with infected surfaces, or float into the eyes. Other than that, we’re left with the usual precautions – quarantine, reducing public interaction to a minimum, regular cleaning of hands and so on.

So far the 2019-nCoV virus has infected three times as many people as SARS, killing more on the Chinese mainland in number than last time, although a smaller proportion of cases than with SARS. The real threat is not the mortality rate but the potentially much greater number of cases, not only because of the higher infectivity combined with the longer asymptomatic incubation period that fosters unwitting transmission by carriers, but also because of the initial cover-up and delay in Wuhan. One would have thought that the lesson of 2002-3 was to act fast and decisively to contain the epidemic. On the other hand, if it had begun in a Manhattan street market just as the population was gathering to celebrate Thanksgiving, would the Mayor of New York have had the nerve – and the capacity - to put the whole city in lockdown for weeks? We may yet find out, of course.

The economic effects are already beginning to manifest themselves. The New York Times reports (£) that the virus-preventive shutdown of Chinese parts suppliers is hitting Hyundai car plants in South Korea; the LA Times notes that the US has become far more linked to China since the disruption caused by SARS: ‘China’s economy today is 8½ times larger than it was in 2003. Trade with the U.S. is nearly four times bigger.’ American computer manufacturers are running out of circuit boards; middle-class Chinese tourism, already affected by the trade war, will drop further, as will sales of luxury goods to those visitors. The UK will be similarly afflicted; even with pork exports and fashion imports.

We’d better make sure that our borders are an effective firebreak in the fight against this disease, and render every assistance we can to the Chinese to facilitate a return to the normality on which we have all come to depend.