Sunday, February 02, 2020
Coronavirus: China’s perfect storm?
This could be worse than the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak of 2002/3. Vlogger and former China-based businessman Matthew Tye (aka ‘laowhy86’) says that the new strain of coronavirus seems to be more transmissible than SARS; and early indications are that more people are dying than recovering. That makes the need for containment even more urgent.
Yet officials have been slow to admit the problem and respond accordingly, so exacerbating the spread of the disease. The first case appeared in Wuhan on 8 December, but a planned food-sharing public banquet for 100,000 people there went ahead on 18 January, by which time 49 cases had already been made public, and the next day the populace was assured that the sickness was not very infectious. When a number of performers fell ill during the Government’s New Year celebrations on 21 January the State media merely praised them for carrying on with the show and showing great spirit. The following day came the order to wear masks (not enforceable with fines until a week later), and on 23 January Wuhan was finally quarantined and the airport closed. However, by this time five million people had already left the area and passengers had been allowed onto planes if they showed no symptoms, which unfortunately in the case of this virus take a long time to manifest themselves – as the authorities already knew - so many infected persons may have travelled out by air.
As China urbanises, many millions of people are moving around the country in pursuit of work. For example in Wuhan’s province of Hubei, the 2000 national census showed 2.8 million migrants moving north to Beijing and south to Guangdong (both c. 700 miles distant) and to other coastal cities. This central region is well served with modern rail and road networks, and although Wuhan’s airport is now shut, there are huge numbers of other aviation routes in China, both internal and international, so air travel threatens to be an especially powerful disease vector.
The initial concern of officials, says Tye, was to suppress news of the outbreak. Eight people were arrested on 1 January for talking about the existence of the virus, and on 14 January media reporters were detained and their phones and cameras searched for information. By the end of the month the government was still arresting those who spoke out, and (26 January) banning articles on the internet.
Fellow vlogger and Tye associate Winston Sterzel (aka ‘serpentza’) reports on a doctor who treated the first cases and informed his clinical WeChat messaging group on 30 December, telling them not to make it public for fear of being closed down, but to warn family and friends. The authorities picked up on this and made him sign an undertaking not to spread rumours: ‘If you continue to be stubborn and don’t repent […] you will be punished to the full extent of the law! Do you understand?’ Subsequently he contracted the virus himself and is still fighting for his life.
Seeing the intensive preparations now ongoing (e.g. new hospitals being set up in days), it seems that the government’s media are under-declaring the number of cases. Sterzel says he receives feedback from Chinese followers saying more people die of the flu in the USA; but he points out that with coronavirus a higher proportion are hospitalised and there is no vaccine. Further, although China reports improbably few cases of flu annually, Sterzel’s doctor wife tells him that this is because their method of recording causes of death is different than in the West. Rather than report the immediate cause, they will write down any pre-existing condition (e.g. a heart problem) and attribute the death to that. That is the opposite approach to that used by the USA and UK (for an example of ours see page 5 here). So, this is a way in which the true state of affairs can be disguised.
The crisis management has moved on to scapegoating since (says Tye) the Chinese Communist Party’s focus is on maintaining its power and the confidence of the populace. The mayor of Wuhan resigned on 27 January, becoming a target for public shaming and hatred, but later laid part of the responsibility on the central government in Beijing, which in turn seeks to blame the local administration in Hubei, which had been downplaying the scale of the emergency.
The Chinese strongly resent critical comments from outsiders, says Sterzel, and are quick to accuse the latter of racism. It’s understandable, given China’s treatment by foreigners in past times; but it encourages a culture of denial and disinformation.
Some may say that Tye and Sterzel may not be entirely unbiased, since they have abandoned their businesses in China because of difficulties with the authorities. For his part Sterzel says that since President Xi came to power attitudes to foreigners have hardened and the ‘golden age’ of opportunity there for non-Chinese is over.
It is also most unfortunate that this epidemic, which needs close international cooperation, has come during a developing trade war. In 2018 President Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese imports, and China has retaliated with a reduction and then a total ban on US agricultural products, which were worth $19.5 billion to the US in 2017. This, added to other factors, is causing American farmers to suffer terribly. Trump is trying to protect US employment and Americans' standard of living, but the path down from globalisation is far more difficult than the way up and at the same time international relations are souring.
Perhaps, as this potential pandemic looms over us, we will start to work together again for the common good.
FURTHER READING:
Excellent blogpiece by 'Legiron'
A more sanguine view from 'Moon of Alabama'
A pro-Chinese Westerner, Godfree Roberts, defends Beijing's approach
Saturday, February 01, 2020
Fancy a Short Trip ? By Wiggiatlarge
I could have added this to the first Sale piece, but it is not so much a sale item as a con on advertising in the mad world of hotels and holidays: misleading, confusing and non existent offers are all part of the armoury used in advertising in the travel industry.
A certain hotel booking portal has a series of adverts telling us that by using them they will have done all the hard work and found the cheapest room rate - smiling girl with smug look pays less than the non-portal user who is furious, I am sure you know who I mean.
When these holiday web sites such as Expedia initially started out, genuine savings could be made by comparing all of them yourselves, but Tripadvisor then started to collate all the same sites under the heading being viewed so you could see who was the cheapest without going to all the sites individually; seemed like a good move at the time and indeed it was for a period of time.
As always with these things the good times end. Further comparison sites started up and little by little the financial variations gradually disappeared, not that you would think that was the case if you view the adverts on television with the mobile phone being held up with huge variations in the price of the hotel that it is set in.
The truth is somewhat different. Going back to Tripadvisor, you will see still all the different booking agents underneath a particular hotel and almost without exception all will be the same. The variation shown in the advert may well exist but not in any meaningful way, i.e. a place no one is going to or a very bad time of the year.
When a small reduction occurs there is normally a good reason, e.g. the booking agent is not offering the late cancellation ability of the others, so in reality it is not cheaper; and to be fair, the late cancellation - whilst very useful - is often abused by the holiday maker, so many establishments are simply not offering it as before.
I can well remember the time when a room rate of say £100 per night could be found for say £75, a genuine saving with a bit of work sorting through the different companies. Now that they all have the same page scrutiny, it is as if they cannot afford to be any more expensive than the others, so by a ‘gentlemen's’ agreement they all price in unison.
In fact in many cases it is better to phone the hotel direct and barter, as they have to pay the booking agents a percentage, so there is going to be wriggle room by going direct.
In a similar vein, discounted luxury holidays are going the same way. I remember out of curiosity going to a website when the first of these sites came online, I believe the first was Secret Escapes, and there they were, heavily discounted luxury holidays, well some of them. Naturally a whole raft of trending sites with the same idea sprang up offering the same, and you started to wonder where all these discounted luxury breaks came from. Were there really that many unsold holidays the travel firms were desperate to unload, or was it a mirage?
Remember you have always been able to get last minute bookings at a discount, as long as you could be flexible with dates and were not too fussy on specifics; yet all these or the vast majority once you get past the lead in 'bargains' are not that cheap and nearly always come with dodgy dates (e.g.November in a Scottish luxury hotel) though again you could get lucky and do better by phoning the hotel direct if you really want to go at that time.
One of the companies now prices rooms per person as in a package, making finding the room rate appear remarkably cheap at first glance; but of course, when you double up the single rate - and I checked a few - it was little different from the rack rate; and this in November !
What these luxury discount sites have done is to remove much of the original sellers' own discounted deals from their sites, many of which were genuine savers, so they have effectively taken some real bargains out of the market. Many travel companies have little or no discounts any more.
When investigating 'three for two' offers which are popular - usually out of season, and often offered by tour companies - again, check the hotel direct one. I did out of curiosity: it showed the same offer on their web site but also an upgrade to a junior suite, so better than the tour company.
It is often said a good travel guide can alleviate many of the problems of hotel booking. To a degree that is true, but there are caveats even there: are they up to date? A change of hotel owner can transform a good hotel to a rubbish one overnight - I know, I’ve been there. Guides in their early formative days can be very useful, but the owners of these guides soon succumb to advertising and the revenue it brings and despite assurances the guide loses its honesty; some guides I have used have descriptions that one finds difficulty in matching to the reality.
For years, I used Michelin guides for restaurants, to good effect. Even there they have slumped somewhat in recent years; and don’t bother with their hotel section - the inspectors for that section are either blind or on the take. So many hotels have been dogs when portrayed as excellent: four- and five-star ones with bedrooms that have not seen a new mattress in decades, or are described as ‘comfortable’ yet are so small there is nowhere to hang any clothes or put your suitcase, and the bed is so short that even John Bercow would have a problem stretching out. How do they get such good ratings?
Cruise companies are especially guilty of this. Several firms that only sold discounted cruise offers are no more. The cruise companies do their own offers if you book early but the same ‘offer’ is normally there way into the season. It is a bit like discount kitchens: they are always on discount, which means there is no real discount. Plus many tour operators that do advertise late bookings are often found to be only marginally cheaper than the standard rate.
Even the ferry companies do the same: the real discounts are becoming ever harder to find and the popular routes now never have them unless you count cheaper midnight sailings as an offer. There is a well-known ferry discounter that gives virtually all its routes discounted prices at the same rates as the ferry companies themselves; how this actually gets to be a discount is not that clear !
Cruises themselves have become very popular and the market now caters for every man and his dog. Gone are the days when saying you had just been on a cruise brought about signs of envy in those you were speaking to. Now, the enormous Blackpool-at-sea ships can manage 5000 passengers a go - and it shows: ersatz shopping malls in the middle of the ocean do not appeal to me but many obviously think otherwise. But you do get what you pay for: this survey shows the down side of the big ships and remember there is no escape as there is on land - imagine having an altercation over the last sausage at a late breakfast and not being able to avoid the person you had that with for two weeks.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-7925157/Best-worst-cruise-lines-2020-revealed-Viking-Ocean-Cruises-MSC-bottom.html
Look very carefully at the small print if you need to cancel a cruise. With some, if you cancel under 90 days before leaving, you will be liable for the whole cruise and any extras booked at the same time.
This is from a ferry company's '15% off' offer; 'terms and conditions apply' - they certainly do !
'Please Note: Terms and conditions apply. Subject to availability from a limited and variable allocation of space. Excluded travel dates: From UK: 21-23 May; Thurs-Saturday departures from 16 July to 22 August. From France: Saturday and Sunday departures from 1 August to 1 September. Discount does not apply to vehicle supplements or onboard accommodation. Excludes foot passenger fares. Offer may be withdrawn at any time. New online bookings only.'
Well, that narrows it down a bit…
One cannot but get the feeling there is a kind of consensus with all these companies on a form of price fixing. So many of the holiday offers are deliberately confusing. You need to do a great deal of reading the small print to get the actual like-for-like price: small things, as with a hotel room that appears cheaper but does not include breakfast, when not that long ago all rooms included breakfast in the price - and some of the breakfast prices are just another loaded add-on, taking the combined price comfortably above the inclusive one. The inclusive breakfast is seemingly on the way out, as is free parking, or parking on-site as it used to be called.
Whatever way you book your holiday, one point that is actually in favour of a package holiday is the insurance: on any holiday booked this way, the longer trips are covered by the companies with insurance that is a lot cheaper in most cases than the policies you can get separately, especially for the older traveller where rates including health insurance start to rocket after 75. With stand-alone insurance you have the added concern of having to declare everything that has ailed you since childhood, otherwise your policy could be voided in a claim situation. It might not seem much but it is amazing how many items over a life can mount up and all add to the premium, in some cases making travel prohibitively expensive.
Some tour operators do an inclusive policy where no such items need to be declared. This can be a great saving if you are in this age bracket, and there is no point in spending hours and hours finding the best deals if the advantage is all eroded by the insurance costs. Sadly some insurance companies make it obvious by their pricing that they are not interested in the older traveller, despite more and more of this sector having the disposable income to travel frequently; this also narrows the field of those still giving insurance to the older traveller, which means they get a stranglehold on premium rates, so check the small print of tour operators re travel / health insurance.
I have just put together a short week-long trip and it was hard work sorting through the hidden charges and extras. Some of the price differences are minimal anyway, if you fail to see what is and is not included these days. Nno way can you assume on the integrity of a particular company; even old stalwarts that you have used for years are starting to use the same ruses. It could be worse: train/air tickets, anyone?
Bon Voyage!
A certain hotel booking portal has a series of adverts telling us that by using them they will have done all the hard work and found the cheapest room rate - smiling girl with smug look pays less than the non-portal user who is furious, I am sure you know who I mean.
When these holiday web sites such as Expedia initially started out, genuine savings could be made by comparing all of them yourselves, but Tripadvisor then started to collate all the same sites under the heading being viewed so you could see who was the cheapest without going to all the sites individually; seemed like a good move at the time and indeed it was for a period of time.
As always with these things the good times end. Further comparison sites started up and little by little the financial variations gradually disappeared, not that you would think that was the case if you view the adverts on television with the mobile phone being held up with huge variations in the price of the hotel that it is set in.
The truth is somewhat different. Going back to Tripadvisor, you will see still all the different booking agents underneath a particular hotel and almost without exception all will be the same. The variation shown in the advert may well exist but not in any meaningful way, i.e. a place no one is going to or a very bad time of the year.
When a small reduction occurs there is normally a good reason, e.g. the booking agent is not offering the late cancellation ability of the others, so in reality it is not cheaper; and to be fair, the late cancellation - whilst very useful - is often abused by the holiday maker, so many establishments are simply not offering it as before.
I can well remember the time when a room rate of say £100 per night could be found for say £75, a genuine saving with a bit of work sorting through the different companies. Now that they all have the same page scrutiny, it is as if they cannot afford to be any more expensive than the others, so by a ‘gentlemen's’ agreement they all price in unison.
In fact in many cases it is better to phone the hotel direct and barter, as they have to pay the booking agents a percentage, so there is going to be wriggle room by going direct.
In a similar vein, discounted luxury holidays are going the same way. I remember out of curiosity going to a website when the first of these sites came online, I believe the first was Secret Escapes, and there they were, heavily discounted luxury holidays, well some of them. Naturally a whole raft of trending sites with the same idea sprang up offering the same, and you started to wonder where all these discounted luxury breaks came from. Were there really that many unsold holidays the travel firms were desperate to unload, or was it a mirage?
Remember you have always been able to get last minute bookings at a discount, as long as you could be flexible with dates and were not too fussy on specifics; yet all these or the vast majority once you get past the lead in 'bargains' are not that cheap and nearly always come with dodgy dates (e.g.November in a Scottish luxury hotel) though again you could get lucky and do better by phoning the hotel direct if you really want to go at that time.
One of the companies now prices rooms per person as in a package, making finding the room rate appear remarkably cheap at first glance; but of course, when you double up the single rate - and I checked a few - it was little different from the rack rate; and this in November !
What these luxury discount sites have done is to remove much of the original sellers' own discounted deals from their sites, many of which were genuine savers, so they have effectively taken some real bargains out of the market. Many travel companies have little or no discounts any more.
When investigating 'three for two' offers which are popular - usually out of season, and often offered by tour companies - again, check the hotel direct one. I did out of curiosity: it showed the same offer on their web site but also an upgrade to a junior suite, so better than the tour company.
It is often said a good travel guide can alleviate many of the problems of hotel booking. To a degree that is true, but there are caveats even there: are they up to date? A change of hotel owner can transform a good hotel to a rubbish one overnight - I know, I’ve been there. Guides in their early formative days can be very useful, but the owners of these guides soon succumb to advertising and the revenue it brings and despite assurances the guide loses its honesty; some guides I have used have descriptions that one finds difficulty in matching to the reality.
For years, I used Michelin guides for restaurants, to good effect. Even there they have slumped somewhat in recent years; and don’t bother with their hotel section - the inspectors for that section are either blind or on the take. So many hotels have been dogs when portrayed as excellent: four- and five-star ones with bedrooms that have not seen a new mattress in decades, or are described as ‘comfortable’ yet are so small there is nowhere to hang any clothes or put your suitcase, and the bed is so short that even John Bercow would have a problem stretching out. How do they get such good ratings?
Cruise companies are especially guilty of this. Several firms that only sold discounted cruise offers are no more. The cruise companies do their own offers if you book early but the same ‘offer’ is normally there way into the season. It is a bit like discount kitchens: they are always on discount, which means there is no real discount. Plus many tour operators that do advertise late bookings are often found to be only marginally cheaper than the standard rate.
Even the ferry companies do the same: the real discounts are becoming ever harder to find and the popular routes now never have them unless you count cheaper midnight sailings as an offer. There is a well-known ferry discounter that gives virtually all its routes discounted prices at the same rates as the ferry companies themselves; how this actually gets to be a discount is not that clear !
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-7925157/Best-worst-cruise-lines-2020-revealed-Viking-Ocean-Cruises-MSC-bottom.html
Look very carefully at the small print if you need to cancel a cruise. With some, if you cancel under 90 days before leaving, you will be liable for the whole cruise and any extras booked at the same time.
This is from a ferry company's '15% off' offer; 'terms and conditions apply' - they certainly do !
'Please Note: Terms and conditions apply. Subject to availability from a limited and variable allocation of space. Excluded travel dates: From UK: 21-23 May; Thurs-Saturday departures from 16 July to 22 August. From France: Saturday and Sunday departures from 1 August to 1 September. Discount does not apply to vehicle supplements or onboard accommodation. Excludes foot passenger fares. Offer may be withdrawn at any time. New online bookings only.'
Well, that narrows it down a bit…
One cannot but get the feeling there is a kind of consensus with all these companies on a form of price fixing. So many of the holiday offers are deliberately confusing. You need to do a great deal of reading the small print to get the actual like-for-like price: small things, as with a hotel room that appears cheaper but does not include breakfast, when not that long ago all rooms included breakfast in the price - and some of the breakfast prices are just another loaded add-on, taking the combined price comfortably above the inclusive one. The inclusive breakfast is seemingly on the way out, as is free parking, or parking on-site as it used to be called.
Whatever way you book your holiday, one point that is actually in favour of a package holiday is the insurance: on any holiday booked this way, the longer trips are covered by the companies with insurance that is a lot cheaper in most cases than the policies you can get separately, especially for the older traveller where rates including health insurance start to rocket after 75. With stand-alone insurance you have the added concern of having to declare everything that has ailed you since childhood, otherwise your policy could be voided in a claim situation. It might not seem much but it is amazing how many items over a life can mount up and all add to the premium, in some cases making travel prohibitively expensive.
Some tour operators do an inclusive policy where no such items need to be declared. This can be a great saving if you are in this age bracket, and there is no point in spending hours and hours finding the best deals if the advantage is all eroded by the insurance costs. Sadly some insurance companies make it obvious by their pricing that they are not interested in the older traveller, despite more and more of this sector having the disposable income to travel frequently; this also narrows the field of those still giving insurance to the older traveller, which means they get a stranglehold on premium rates, so check the small print of tour operators re travel / health insurance.
I have just put together a short week-long trip and it was hard work sorting through the hidden charges and extras. Some of the price differences are minimal anyway, if you fail to see what is and is not included these days. Nno way can you assume on the integrity of a particular company; even old stalwarts that you have used for years are starting to use the same ruses. It could be worse: train/air tickets, anyone?
Bon Voyage!
Friday, January 31, 2020
FRIDAY MUSIC: Alfred Schnittke, by JD
In the 80s and 90s there were many excellent magazines on the market and one I bought each month was ClassicCD, their first issue was June 1990. All of those magazines, for one reason or another, have ceased publication.
The ClassicCD magazine usually had a CD attached to it with selections of music from newly issued CDs which were reviewed within the pages of the magazine. From the reviews and the CD I discovered a lot of new composers and artists; new to me that is.
One such was Alfred Schnittke who first came to my attention playing piano on Arvo Pärt's composition 'Tabula Rasa' (a fabulous minimalist piece of music which also features the violinists Gidon Kremer and Tatjana Grindenko) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Schnittke
It was after buying that CD that I discovered, via ClassicCD magazine, that Schnittke was also a composer. The following videos are a representative selection of his varied work.
Note: video 4 here is the opening of Schnittke's Requiem set to a film excerpt from Fritz Lang's 1921 film "Der Müde Tod". Videos 5, 6 and 7 are the five movements of 'Suite in the old style' (that's what Google translate tells me!)
The ClassicCD magazine usually had a CD attached to it with selections of music from newly issued CDs which were reviewed within the pages of the magazine. From the reviews and the CD I discovered a lot of new composers and artists; new to me that is.
One such was Alfred Schnittke who first came to my attention playing piano on Arvo Pärt's composition 'Tabula Rasa' (a fabulous minimalist piece of music which also features the violinists Gidon Kremer and Tatjana Grindenko) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Schnittke
It was after buying that CD that I discovered, via ClassicCD magazine, that Schnittke was also a composer. The following videos are a representative selection of his varied work.
Note: video 4 here is the opening of Schnittke's Requiem set to a film excerpt from Fritz Lang's 1921 film "Der Müde Tod". Videos 5, 6 and 7 are the five movements of 'Suite in the old style' (that's what Google translate tells me!)
Wednesday, January 29, 2020
New post on The Conservative Woman: 'Out of the EU and on to a hard road ahead'
On the TCW site here: https://conservativewoman.co.uk/out-of-the-eu-and-on-to-a-hard-road-ahead/
THE Withdrawal Bill has passed all
its Parliamentary stages, received Royal assent and we’re out on Friday.
Allegedly. The Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration are not that much
altered from the versions Mrs May failed to get through and I fear that the new
PM may be telling himself that a compromise that satisfies nobody has the most
chance of shutting up the malcontents on both sides.
I hope I’m wrong. I hope there is a
way to ensure that we don’t leave ourselves under EU legal jurisdiction, we
don’t put our armed forces at risk of being embroiled in EU military
adventurism, we don’t dash the hopes of our fishing communities, and we don’t
continue to pay out monstrous amounts of money. Is there any other way than
‘crashing out’ without a deal?
But despite all these daunting
challenges, are we too concerned with shorter-term matters? Perhaps we need to
step back and see the big picture. The industrial Revolution that Britain
pioneered multiplied human effort and, coupled with the development of
international trade, allowed our population to increase to six or seven times
what it was in 1801, the last time we were anything close to food
self-sufficiency.
To get by in World War Two, we
‘dug for victory’ and slaughtered most of our food animals, which left us short
of natural fertiliser, and the land was reportedly ‘losing heart’ towards the
end. Starvation was a possibility.
Since then, we’ve been building on
agricultural land and flood plains, while a lunatic New Labour deliberately
lost control of immigration in order to teach their political rivals some idiot
point about diversity; now we don’t actually know how many people are in this
country.
Today we import 80 per cent of our
food (the 50 per cent figure is a fudge – food processed here from imported
materials is counted as British) and according to Sunday’s BBC1 Countryfile
programme, our farmers depend on the Common Agricultural Policy for 61 per cent
of their income; otherwise many of them would be goners. Even if we cut out
dietary luxuries, if anything seriously interrupts the system, we’re up a gum
tree.
Since we can’t feed ourselves, we
have to pay the world for our board. Food is cheap (for us) because of modern
farming methods that ultimately depend on fossil fuels in various ways; and
also because of relative currency values that make the pound buy a lot more in
many foreign countries – for now. So, make-and-trade it is.
Except it isn’t. In the 1970s, a
Conservative government signed away our fishing rights and plugged us into an
EU-regional trading system that undermined our industry; the damage showed up
in unemployment and underemployment – both carefully disguised –
imbalance in visible trade, gradual personal financial impoverishment for much
of the populace, widening wealth inequality, growing public debt and neoliberal
rules that allow rich individuals and powerful corporations to flee if taxes
become too burdensome. And then it went global.
All this was foreseen long ago, as we
see here:
In the recording above, Sir James Goldsmith was speaking to Brian Walden in 1994, not long after the signatories to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) had agreed to form the World Trade Organisation. The billionaire warned that globalisation would harm the interests of the Western working classes, as on a smaller scale the EU’s internal market had done already, and he began by citing the experience of France, where he had recently won a seat in the European Parliament:
‘In France you had
in 1973 420,000 unemployed. Between 1973 and 1993 the economy grew by 80 per
cent, eight zero, almost doubling; and the number of unemployed went from
420,000 to 5.1million. What can be the purpose of an economy which by doubling
goes to 5.1million?’
He went on to say that a similar
situation pertained in Britain. Had it not been for North Sea Oil and monetary
expansion (BoE and the mortgage boom), I’m not sure Conservatives would be
looking back on the Thatcher years with such unmixed admiration.
Some say, get completely free of the
EU and let’s trade on WTO terms. In that case, we need to examine the latter
more closely, too. It’s a topical issue, for despite his domestic political
travails, President Trump took the opportunity last week at Davos to call for
reform of the WTO since China, though now the world’s second-biggest
economy, is still benefiting from preferential terms relating to its WTO status
as a ‘developing’ nation.
Bloomberg explains further here, but the takeaway for us is that although several other countries have agreed to give up that status in future talks (see point 7 in the article), China is digging its heels in.
Bloomberg explains further here, but the takeaway for us is that although several other countries have agreed to give up that status in future talks (see point 7 in the article), China is digging its heels in.
There’s a reason for that. Although
the Middle Kingdom has the highest Gross Domestic Product in the world in terms
of local spending power (Purchasing Power Parity), it has a vast population and per person its
income isn’t even in the top 100. During President Xi’s term of office (and he has
no intention of leaving soon) electricity production has more than doubled and
he seems determined to continue industrialising and urbanising his country,
whatever Greta, Sweden’s Joan of Aargh! may say.
Who runs the WTO anyway? The makeup
of its secretariat is interesting: headed by a Brazilian, with deputies from
Nigeria, the USA, Germany and China – so, two developing countries, one
superpower, a wannabe superpower (already interfering in Africa and
compromising Ireland’s constitutional military neutrality) … and the huge Chinese axolotl, neither primitive
nor developed. (By the way, note that the latter’s WTO deputy, Yi Xiaozhun, is
in charge of intellectual property issues: Mr Xiaozhun must have so much to
discuss with his American counterpart!)
Post-Brexit, shouldn’t the UK also
have representation at a senior level in the WTO, as a major global trading
economy and freshly-liberated nation? For his part, Trump has more than once
indicated a preparedness to withdraw from the WTO if necessary, but I wonder whether even our new UK government
is capable of fighting its way out of a wet paper bag, let alone triggering
WTO-exit. The next 11 months of EU trade negotiations will be a key test of its
general will and skill.
But we ought to reassess our policy
towards the WTO – another one that likes to give orders from very nice offices
far away – because remote supranational quangos practically guarantee trouble
for the little people, aka ‘the many.’
Take the Airbus dispute: The EU
subsidised the makers ‘illegally’ and the WTO ruled that the US could impose retaliatory tariffs on EU goods. This is to hit exports of Scotch whisky. Irish ex-EU beef exports could also suffer and at
the same time the South American trade bloc Mercosur has agreed with the EU a
deal allowing it to send annually 99,000 tons of beef to Europe.
Irish MEP Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan told the EU Parliament that the agreement ‘paid the most sustainable beef
farmers on the planet to go out of business: We don’t want that type of
support. At the end of this, farmers have got to come out of it all right. It’s
very hard to believe how they will, though, because they usually are the ones
who – both in a literal sense and in a metaphorical sense – end up with the
shit on their hands’.
I hope I’m right in thinking that
Dominic Cummings’ recent job advert is for a team to tackle much more than Brexit
and if so, I fully support him. The detailed planning to get us out of this
nexus of potential disasters will need the geniuses and weirdos he’s looking
for.
Tuesday, January 28, 2020
A bug’s life (coronavirus)
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| https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/what-new-coronavirus-n1119081 |
The death toll from the coronavirus continues to rise in China, and with it the conspiracy theories. Amidst all the horse-pucky in the latter you will often find a seed or two of truth.
For example, we now know that Wuhan, the city where the outbreak started, is also the location of China’s only level 4 biological research facility, or the only one we’re allowed to know about.
Someone connected this with the escorted departure of some Chinese scientists from a similar laboratory in Winnipeg, Canada. Nonono, said CBC: ‘online chatter’… ‘disinformation’ (watch for that word with Google Alerts, there’s an organised official counterattack against social media infospread)… before reminding us of one of their earlier stories that revealed the National Microbiology Lab had sent live Ebola and Henipah viruses to Beijing on an Air Canada flight last March. Good job planes never crash.
The Chinese probably didn’t need shipments of coronavirus, though. After all, their SARS epidemic eighteen years ago was another version of the same class of virus. The earlier one was traced back to cave bats in Yunnan; the latest has also been blamed on bats and a Chinese vlogger has had to apologise for commending them as a delicacy (like almost everything else: if its back is towards Heaven you can eat it, is the old Cantonese saying) – or is that explanation itself official disinformation?
Could it possibly have been an Andromeda Strain-type accidental lab release? The 1975 (effective date) international Biological Weapons Convention prohibits the military development, production etc of germs and viruses, and China signed up in 1984. Yet given the fallen state of mankind and especially governments, I shouldn’t be surprised if it hasn’t continued undercover there, as this writer claims.
Asked where the UK does its bio and chemical research, most of us could only name Porton Down (I remember the Aldermaston marches, but when did the public march against germ warfare?) However, we have another facility in Hertfordshire, three in Surrey and three more in Greater London. I hope it’s all white-hat stuff, though I can imagine Whitehall arguments for developing nasties in order to find defences against them if ‘the other side’ tries to use them.
There’s two in France and another French-supported one in Gabon. They do like to do things their own way, do the French; unlike us, they don’t need US authorisation for their nukes, either. A reason I pick on our Continental cousins here is a story that caught my eye in 2016, about the opening of a level 3 (allegedly) bio-safety laboratory in French Polynesia. Funnily enough, that Tahiti News article has since disappeared. The Institut Louis Malardé (ILM) opened it, not on the main island of Tahiti or in Pape'ete, but on a tiny two-square-mile atoll called Tetiaroa. Supposedly it is for research into mosquito-borne diseases and having it locally would save processing time, according to France.tv. Google flagged up an article on the ILM site with a snippet under the link - ‘Lutte contre les moustiques. Une expérimentation innovante à Tetiaroa’ - that now I can’t find there.
Colour me sceptical, but we have every reason to distrust our rulers and their massive military establishments. Humans aren’t grown-up enough to play with such toys; the trouble is getting them back into the box.
It’s easier to keep us in the dark, I guess. New definition of a British D-notice: ‘dis information must not be released to da public.’
Sunday, January 26, 2020
Caning the toad: redefining 'woke'
WOKE: awake, but with your eyes closed
We were enjoying last night's episode of QI XL, a programme that explores interesting facts and provides opportunities for laughs, many of them a bit bawdy but reflecting on the human condition.
And then, a propos of bugger-all, Phil Jupitus had to bring Brexit into it.
The segment was about cane toads in Australia, and we got a close-up of one:
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| View recording: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1XJRoKzrA5rVpB-gblUQ48Z-QNOFHYbtN/view |
At 19:07 in: (stupid, gravelly voice) Hullo (audience laughter)... I definitely think we should leave Europe."
So, funny because the supposed speaker is old? Or ill-educated? Or white?
If I were a wokester, I guess I could have him on my checklist of offences: ageist, elitist, racist.
Bear in mind that Brexit wasn't the topic under discussion and there was no lead-in even from Jupitus. It was just something that his daft metropolitan audience (the programme is recorded in the London Studios, Waterloo) could be guaranteed to agree-laugh at. It's almost Bernard Manning for right-on bigots.
But Jupitus is not himself daft. He's a grammar-school boy, making his money off an easily pleased English fanbase although he lives in Fife.
And the TV will try to persuade us that the country thinks like these degree-holder morons.
The episode (#241) was first aired on 25 October 2019. I don't suppose the result of the General Election a couple of months later will have changed his opinions (or the opinions he affects to hold while in performance), any more than that of the 2016 Referendum.
But 'woke' is about falling for the emo-traps set for us by the real elite, who encourage us to focus on personal and sexual issues so we can't see the power-grabs going on around the world.
And there's a class of clever, well-rewarded entertainers employed to play to audience prejudice. Ordinary Brits, downtrodden by globalist forces from which educated professional smartcrackers are relatively immune, are guyed by the comparison with an ugly toad. Despicable; an easy and suitable target for us sophisticates; 'deplorables,' to coin a phrase.
I wonder how these salon sallies would play in coastal fishing communities; in the broken mining areas; in the housing estates around closed steelworks; in the built-over former car factories; on the struggling farms across the country?
Friday, January 24, 2020
FRIDAY MUSIC: Tatiana Eva-Marie (French jazz), by JD
Tatiana Eva-Marie is a French jazz singer based in New York. With her Avalon Jazz Band their music is inspired by the Parisian jazz scene of the 1940s: a mix of swing, Gypsy jazz and French chanson.
She appeared on French TV at the age of seven singing Flocon Papillon, a French children's song and the clip is on YouTube if you wish to satisfy your curiosity and you can read more about her here -
http://tatianaevamarie.com/about/
She appeared on French TV at the age of seven singing Flocon Papillon, a French children's song and the clip is on YouTube if you wish to satisfy your curiosity and you can read more about her here -
http://tatianaevamarie.com/about/
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