Nick Drew's Lenten message to DECC: "Lay off the boozle!"

See our expert's full story about the DECC's dodgy consumer energy price accounting here.

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Nick Drew's Lenten message to DECC: "Lay off the boozle!"

See our expert's full story about the DECC's dodgy consumer energy price accounting here.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Bamboozling Britain on Energy Bills

I don't know if anyone's noticed but the government has recently overhauled its many websites into a fairly uniform GOV.UK set-up. They were pretty anarchic before, it must be said. Now, the gov-site I go to most often (DECC) is more difficult to navigate - but it does look a bit cleaner.

At the same time, I detect they have seriously decided to get their presentational act together. In the case of DECC (and, I've no doubt, lots of others too that I am unable to judge) this means systematically dissembling on the impacts of its ridiculous policies. Perhaps, following Galbraith's famous 'bezzle' coinage, we should call it the 'boozle'. And it's a biggie.

Yes, when it comes to lying about the future policy-driven costs of electricity, the government has long ago decided to Tell A Big One, summarised briefly as "OK, your bills will go up a little bit in the early years, but later they will fall (relative to what we say they would have been without our policies, fingers crossed)". It's worth unpicking exactly how they get to the numbers in this jolly chart, which greenies everywhere have really taken to, but which contains several questionable numbers and one massive, entirely fraudulent sleight of hand.

DECC's Boozle

As DECC have admitted in the past, this argument completely falls if gas prices fall. But let's look at some of the detailed components of their asserted 'saving' of £93.

Costs they acknowledge: as a first pass, we can probably assume most of the elements of the '+£280' are tolerably good estimates, but there are some important points to add: (1) 'EMR support' is planned to rise significantly after 2020, as the supposed new nukes start claiming whatever is to be their grotesque subsidy, and the capacity mechanism bites. So +41 is only the start. (2) Personally I don't envisage doing a 'Green Deal' at Schloss Drew, so I can ignore the +20 of loan repayment. (3) Just look at the transfer payment represented by the biggest single number, +70 for ECO support (a scheme "to subsidise energy efficiency measures for low income households") - this is you and me paying for social policy in a way the government hopes we won't notice. (4) Some estimates of the cost of smart metering etc are a lot higher than +3

Savings they claim: this is where the boozle really gets motoring. I don't know enough to challenge the -158 'Products Policy' and -89 'previous efficiency policies', but boy, those are big numbers. And - they are also in the bag already ! Sunk costs, so to speak. Nothing to do with avoidable policy-costs going forward. We could stop now, and these gains (whatever the numbers should be) would still be ours.

Additionally: (1) the Drew family won't qualify for -53 'ECO / Green Deal' or -16 'Warm Home Discount'. (2) -37 'smart meters' sounds pretty optimistic. (3) -20 'wholesale price impact of EMR' etc is flaky to the point of being an outright punt, it could easily be a net cost.

So: I could re-frame these same numbers for my own circumstances and the -93 diminishes to -49. I could - indeed, I do - diskard utterly the -20 as the flake-job it is. I could add 20 (or more) to EMR support for the years after 2020. I could inject another 30 of modest skepticism on smart meters, etc etc. And then I rightfully ignore the already-captured policy-gains of 158+89, because that's in the past. You can do the mournful maths for yourself.

So - going forward, The Current Policies Are Going To Cost Me Much, Much More! You too, I'm guessing. And the government itself acknowledges I'll have been paying more between now and 2020 anyway ...

Damn them and their wretched boozle !


This post first appeared on Capitalists@Work

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Sweeney Todd: an apology

Following investigation by the FSA, Fleet Street hairstylist Sweeney Todd has been forced to apologise for the use of horsemeat in his partner's popular pies. "We have been experiencing problems with our usual supplier," explained Mr Todd, 53, "so we have had to use protein filler from processors in Eastern Europe.

"Since our orphan boy tout fell ill, business in the barber's shop has been very slow, what with the credit crunch and the fact that thanks to our catering arm, we have no regular hairdressing customers.

"We have now returned to using 100% human flesh in our products. We can reassure consumers that the presence of animal tranquillisers in the pies has been traced to their recreational use by our late clientele. The Metropolitan Police have confirmed that they will not prosecute anyone for pie-related secondary intoxication."

Related news: the Health Secretary Mr Jeremy Hunt has announced that elderly people requiring long-term care will be given the choice of paying £75,000 towards nursing home fees, or a free visit to Mr Todd's salon.

Mr Hunt has asked us to point out that despite the name, there is no connection between his educational firm Hotcourses and the hot savoury dishes manufactured by Mr Todd and Mrs Lovett.

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Chinaaaarrgghh!!!

As the Year of the Snake approaches, read about Mark in China on World Voices.

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China: Scaring away the Nian

 

It didn't start off like in the brochure. A few minutes into the lesson, the teacher left Mark alone with nearly 40 Chinese children, some of them with special needs and all of them unable to understand what he was saying. And so:

 

 

From Mark's end of year report:

 

"English is being heavily driven in Beijing at the moment [2001-2]. As China is entering the World Trade Organisation, and also has the Olympics in 2008, it is seen as an advantage to the people of China to be able to communicate in English. Therefore the government has introduced measures to encourage this, from Chinese/English signs on streets, English language development programs on T.V. and radio, and Chinese/English publications. English is compulsory at [the] School from grade one through to senior two.

 

"However with China having a low percentage of non-Chinese people living or working in China and Chinese people generally not travelling outside of China, often communication with even English teachers in English can be difficult. The standard of written English is of a much higher calibre than spoken English, and English speakers' vocabulary is at a disproportionate level to the fluency with which they can use it."

 

The Chinese teachers at the school "followed a textbook and expanded on this where they felt it necessary," but allowed the four foreign Oral English teachers complete freedom to use their own methods.

 

Mark saw that there was a wide range of ability within the class, and no particular strategy for meeting the needs of the special needs children within it. Also, art was not a highly valued part of the curriculum. So his plan was English through Art: flags, maps, weather, animals, masks, cars - and doors and walls, as seen down the hutongs:

 

 

"When you stray off the main streets anywhere in the sprawling city of Beijing you can find yourself on the back streets where the humanity of Beijing reside. These alleyways, streets and back ways are affectionately referred to as 'Hu tong', they hustle and bustle with life. Whole families can be seen dodging in and out among bicycles incredibly overloaded with a three-seat sofa or cases of cabbages, open air hairdressers comprising a woman, a kitchen chair and her scissors. Life goes on past ornate and fascinating doorways, walls and architecture. What lies behind these doorways? What further dramas go on behind closed doors? Events probably not dissimilar to the family life of any household in Britain.. Often they open onto clutter, ever present bicycles, or occasionally a serene and peaceful scene, where a lonely cherry blossom tree stands central within a sunlight dappled and always dusty haven from the hustle on our side of the door."

 

Many of these ancient living areas were even then being cleared for modern urban projects, the former inhabitants moved far away from their jobs, local markets and lifelong neighbours.

 

The classroom learning continued with quizzes and games, and magic: Hallowe'en and Harry Potter, Hangman, the Hokey Cokey and Quidditch:

 

And celebrations, including Christmas and the New Year:

 

"January is a magical time in China. The Spring Festival begins with a bang for the Chinese New Year, with fireworks and lights filling the sky, almost overwhelming the eyes and ears. Chinese spring festival is a traditional holiday when people attempt to scare away mythical beasts, dragons and Nian. Nian is a mythical wild beast that preys on humans. So people light fireworks and hang lanterns to ward off Nian and keep it away from their homes.

 

"At this time of year homes and buildings are decorated with beautiful lanterns. The light builds to a zenith for the Lantern festival held on the fifteenth of January in two thousand and two (dependent on the Chinese lunar calendar). Lanterns come in many different colours and designs, producing a magnificant spectacle when evening falls and the lanterns bring the darkness to life."

 

The teaching style at the school was formal and could even be quite physically tough sometimes, but the staff felt they had something to learn from this more creative and playful approach. And so did the children:

 

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Slow down in Spain

See Brett Hetherington on World Voices.

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