Engineering Analysis

Positive feedback is a term used by scientists and engineers to describe a feedback loop process where the output of a system drives increased input to the system.

In human terms, one such example is drug addiction, where increased use leads to increased desire for the drug.

A more interesting example can be seen in the 'sudden acceleration' lawsuits against Audi some years ago. Once the cars were examined, it was determined that the drivers had been pushing on the accelerator pedal, rather than the brake. Because they were convinced that they were right, they pushed harder as they gained speed. In some cases, the drivers injured their own legs from the pressure, and bent the pedal.

The past 30 years have seen such a loop in the housing and financial sector. As house prices went up, they released fiat cash into the system, driving prices even higher. This, of course, led to the 'brilliant' idea of packaging mortgages. At some point, the profit margin became so huge that no 'real' industry could compete, which pulled even more investment capital into housing derivatives, and further crippled manufacturing.

Without a governor in place, by way of careful regulation, these crashes are inevitable. The capacity of the internet in moving money only sped things up a little.

Signs of cash hoarding?

The Mogambo Guru relays a statistic: the stock of US notes and coins has increased by $77 billion in 12 months.

Some of this may reflect a switch away from use of credit cards and accounts; but I wonder how much is disappearing into newly-bought floor safes and Heinz bean tin hideaways?

UK Government adviser loses its mind

“Only high-quality professional services, financial services and the City of London have any real value and they should be supported at all costs. The rest of the country can be turned over to tourism.”

Coming up next: new financial centre in Dubai forces closure of City of London.

This... or this?

Dow 6,000 this year, FTSE 3,000 - Nadeem Walayat

Sez he, here. I'm still guessing Dow (inflation-adjusted) 4,000 sometime in the next few years, and it seems Jim Kunstler agrees ("I myself called for Dow 4000 two years ago") In which case, maybe FTSE 2,000 at some point, too.

Harriet Harman declares the end of the rule of law in the UK

Discussing the pension rights of ex-RBS boss Sir Fred Goodwin, Harriet Harman, Leader of the House of Commons, said today:

"The Prime Minister has said it is not acceptable and therefore it will not be accepted. It might be enforceable in a court of law this contract but it's not enforceable in the court of public opinion and that's where the Government steps in."

I propose a plebiscite to dispossess Harriet Harman of all her worldly goods, and exile her permanently from this country. A "yes" vote will have no legal force, but clearly that does not matter, provided it is supported by public opinion.

Anthony Charles Lynton Blair summed up

We spend a long time gathering and shaping our impressions, constructing the two halves of the arch, then the keystone is lowered into place:

September 13, 2001

To London on the 18.47. David Miliband was on the train. He is in a similar situation to the one I was in when I was first selected - enemies occupy every office in his constituency party, although in his case it is nothing personal.

He says The Man - who was once in a similar situation in Sedgefield - advised him 'to go around smiling at everyone and get other people to shoot them'. Advice that The Man seems to have applied throughout his career.

I have often thought that if you want to judge alpha types, especially in public life, it's no use meeting them, since they have spent a lifetime perfecting their persona. You need to look at the people they choose to surround them, and then the agenda will become clear.

"Man smile; man nice man."

On the Endarkenment

Since Sackerson is contributing these very erudite pieces, I have a couple of quotes of my own. I believe that ideas herein complement those that he included from Philip Pullman.

From Carl Sagan's "Demon-Haunted World":

We've arranged a global civilization in which most crucial elements - transportation, communications, and all other industries; agriculture, medicine, education, entertainment, and protecting the environment...profoundly depend on science and technology. We have also arranged things so that no one understands science and technology. This is a prescription for disaster. We might get away with it for a while, but sooner or later this combustible mixture of ignorance and power is going to blow up in our faces.
And another:

I worry that, especially as the Millenium nears, pseudoscience and superstition will seem year by year more tempting, the siren song of unreason more sonorous and attractive. Where have we heard it before?

Whenever our ethnic or national prejudices are aroused, in times of scarcity, during challenges to national self-esteem or nerve, when we agonize about our diminished cosmic place and purpose, or when fanaticism is bubbling up around us - then, habits of thought familiar from ages past reach for the controls.

The candle flame gutters. Its little pool of light trembles. Darkness gathers. The demons begin to stir.