Jim Rogers says exit the pound and sterling-denominated assets. (htp: Wat Tyler)
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Inflation and gold
(1) Times of Malta (htp Jesse)
Gold is a currency and Phillip Manduca is proving this once and over again.
He seems to have gambled his entire professional reputation on gold, reaching the $2,000 threshold by the end of 2010.
He is well worth listening to. His words are illuminated by a previous outstandingly successful record.
The high gold price seems, for the time being, to have reached a plateau, but Manduca of Titan Investments sees a price of gold at $1,000 a troy ounce as a distinct possibility in the near future. He said so a few days ago.
China is now moving part of its massive dollar reserves from the dollar into the euro and gold.
Madoff can be said to have harmed Wall Street, but he has certainly helped the prospects of a booming gold price. The money the Fed is pumping into the economy is proving insufficient to reignite it.
Gold is a currency and Phillip Manduca is proving this once and over again.
He seems to have gambled his entire professional reputation on gold, reaching the $2,000 threshold by the end of 2010.
He is well worth listening to. His words are illuminated by a previous outstandingly successful record.
The high gold price seems, for the time being, to have reached a plateau, but Manduca of Titan Investments sees a price of gold at $1,000 a troy ounce as a distinct possibility in the near future. He said so a few days ago.
China is now moving part of its massive dollar reserves from the dollar into the euro and gold.
Madoff can be said to have harmed Wall Street, but he has certainly helped the prospects of a booming gold price. The money the Fed is pumping into the economy is proving insufficient to reignite it.
(2) Article from the Economic Times on our options (htp: Jesse, again). It thinks there are three: writeoffs/bankruptcies, increase GDP, inflation. The first is politically unacceptable, the second cannot be achieved by monetary means alone, so it's to be the third:
The stage is set for a long period of slow growth as debts are worked down and a rise in inflation in the medium term.
Vice versa
“Good morning, Bank. Customer here.”
“Er, good morning...”
“I’ve been looking at your account with me –“
“I was going to give you a call...”
“ – and there are some matters we need to discuss.“
“I’m very busy at the moment..”
“ Tomorrow morning at nine, if you please.”
“Er, nine, yes.”
Click.
“Er, good morning...”
“I’ve been looking at your account with me –“
“I was going to give you a call...”
“ – and there are some matters we need to discuss.“
“I’m very busy at the moment..”
“ Tomorrow morning at nine, if you please.”
“Er, nine, yes.”
Click.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Maybe it's not really so bad?
The Coyote points out that redundancies are happening faster than drop in output, so he thinks at least part of the crisis is anticipatory behaviour.
Another possibility that occurs to me, is that the credit crunch is a pretext for businesses to become more efficient and cut out deadwood in a way they'd long been planning to do anyway.
Another possibility that occurs to me, is that the credit crunch is a pretext for businesses to become more efficient and cut out deadwood in a way they'd long been planning to do anyway.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Monetary policy: chameleon on a tartan
Our government has contradictory objectives, and something will have to give.
1. It has ordered banks to rebuild their cash reserves, because they loaned out far too high a multiple of what they kept in their vaults. Normally, the way to do this would be to widen the margin between the interest they pay and the interest they charge, making bigger profits that could be salted away; or to become far more cautious in their future lending, increasing the ratio of good loans to bad ones. In a recessionary economy, where many businesses are more likely to fail, this would also imply calling in business loans and trimming their overdraft limits
2. It has called for banks to pass on the full benefit of recent cuts in interest rates, and to maintain lending, especially to businesses.
If (1) is not done, the crisis continues. And if (2) is done, it counteracts (1).
Besides, unless the government nationalises the banks, it's not in a position to force them to do (2). It must know this. Maybe (2) is merely for us punters and voters to hear, not for real action.
As Aeschylus said 2,500 years ago: "In war, truth is the first casualty. "
1. It has ordered banks to rebuild their cash reserves, because they loaned out far too high a multiple of what they kept in their vaults. Normally, the way to do this would be to widen the margin between the interest they pay and the interest they charge, making bigger profits that could be salted away; or to become far more cautious in their future lending, increasing the ratio of good loans to bad ones. In a recessionary economy, where many businesses are more likely to fail, this would also imply calling in business loans and trimming their overdraft limits
2. It has called for banks to pass on the full benefit of recent cuts in interest rates, and to maintain lending, especially to businesses.
If (1) is not done, the crisis continues. And if (2) is done, it counteracts (1).
Besides, unless the government nationalises the banks, it's not in a position to force them to do (2). It must know this. Maybe (2) is merely for us punters and voters to hear, not for real action.
As Aeschylus said 2,500 years ago: "In war, truth is the first casualty. "
Hi yo, Silver
Jesse surveys measures of monetary growth in the USA. He concludes that inflation is likely to drag the dollar down and shares upwards (N.B. in the 70s, they didn't rise as fast as inflation); as to commodities: "silver may be one of the first commodities to break out because the government maintains no significant physical inventory of it as it does for gold and oil."
UPDATE (re silver): Tim "Mess that Greeenspan Made" Iacono thinks so, too.
Limits to growth: rare elements
An article from the New Scientist, first published in May 2007, discusses another challenge to our current way of living: modern technology's dependence on rapidly-shrinking supplies of rare earths. (htp: Paddington)
Greens take turn this into a message about reuse and non-use; selfish investors may consider the implications for funds specialising in industrial metals, metal recovery companies and associated technology.
Greens take turn this into a message about reuse and non-use; selfish investors may consider the implications for funds specialising in industrial metals, metal recovery companies and associated technology.
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