A big figure

Hard on the heels of the $700 billion US bailout bill comes the UK's £400 billion rescue plan.

Oddly, this latter figure, in dollar terms, is very similar to the one approved by Congress - a little over $692 billion at today's retail conversion rates (and even closer in wholesale terms).

But the really interesting thing is the difference is in its relationship to the size of the population of the country, and the GDP:

Marc Faber recently said that the US needed $5 trillion to resolve the crisis, i.e. 7 times more than the amount approved by Congress. Britain's bailout fund is proportionately 7 times greater, and so, crippling cost to the taxpayer aside, maybe it could work.

And it has political implications. The average Brit is so innumerate that he doesn't know how to calculate 75% of 100, so don't expect him to understand that it wasn't simply "the banks" to blame, but the relaxation of Government monetary controls. Don't discount the possibility that, however undeservedly, Gordon Brown may win the next election.

End of the dollar as the world's reserve currency?

See the comment in Brad Setser's blog - Brazil and Argentina are already finding other ways to pay each other, Russia may deal in euros... if no-one wants the dollar after Jesse's predicted devaluation, it may go from devalued to almost worthless.

But what will countries do, that export to the USA? Devalue their own currencies? Or demand payment in euros? Or oil contracts? Even Setser admits to struggling to understand what's going on.

Jesse also comments on a report that the Gulf States may diversify into gold.

Dow: 6th anniversary of its 2002 low

Currency devaluation time?

Jesse reckons there's going to be a massive (30 - 40%) devaluation of the US dollar, in order to swindle foreign creditors.

Are there any currency experts out there who can tell me whether the UK won't race to do the same? Will the Yen and the Renminbi be forced upwards, relatively speaking? Should we be buying dried food etc instead of holding cash?

FTSE prediction: poll results

Thanks to all those who took part in the poll for the forecast value of the FTSE by the end of December. The median line is on 4,500.

This is what I guessed in June and repeated on Monday. Below that at the moment, but I'm still hoping that it'll settle back to the simplified trend I suggested. I prefer to be a sun bear, not a grizzly.

Are we there yet, Dad?

Stop blaming the Americans

The political formula here in the UK is "We'll do anything that's necessary" and "the sub-prime problem started in the USA." Misleading nonsense.

The Americans may have sold packaged mortgages, but our institutions here didn't have to buy stuff they didn't have the competence to analyze.

And we didn't have to have 6x earnings, LTV100%+, self-certification or a rush into buy-to-let.

This disaster is home-grown.