Well, you got what they wanted

The Saviour Bill is passed, and with a sigh of relief, the Dow... DROPS 157 points, as the dealers begin to realize that 200m American taxpayers have shelled-out $3,500 each for nothing at all. Look at the "panic" on Monday when the Bill was thrown out, and the "joy" now.

Financial white-water dead ahead

Jesse reports on an FT article from Wednesday, which suggests that the "hurry-up-and-give-us-$700bn" is to do with the need to renew credit default insurances on Fannie, Freddie and Lehman this month - the first two immediately after this weekend.

Maybe I was right, then, when I thought I saw panic in Hank Paulson's demeanour the other night, as he responded to Congress' rejection of the bailout proposals.

Oh, and London Banker reflects bleakly: "The crash in equities will still happen."

US debt-to-GDP, 1940 - onwards

Belatedly, it occurred to me that it could be more useful to see the progress of the debt burden in terms of national earnings. This is from Steve McGourty and is updated as of 21st September.

I'm not sure how much comfort we can take from the fact that the blue line was slightly higher in the mid-1990s, and far higher in the '40s. I suppose it depends on what you think may happen to the GDP part.

US debt outstanding, Fiscal Years 1950 - 2008

Figures are in billions of US dollars.

US debts vs. other expenditure - 2006

Here's the importance of debt, compared to other Federal and local State expenditure.

I've taken the interest on the debt for the fiscal year 2006, plus the amount by which total debt increased in the 12 months ending Dec 29, 2006. That's because the outstanding debt is increasing even faster than the amount of interest being paid.

(Figures are in billions of US dollars.)

By way of comparison, I also give below two figures - the increase in debt plus interest paid for 2006, and then for 2008. In the latter case, the increase in debt is that from 30 Sep 2007 to 12 months later, and the interest is the latest available as per here.

In other words, if America had no such debts, she would have $1.45 trillion more per year to spend on other things.

Interest, plus rolling-up more debt, now equates to some 30% of all non-debt-servicing costs of the States and Federal Government.

Existing debts and the Bailout Bill

Treasury debt information

$431,270,863,309.37

That's America's "Interest on the debt outstanding" for the fiscal year 2008 - not ended.

20 years ago, it was $214,145,028,847.73.

Zgirl's "Better than nothing" blog explains why deflation would cripple the American government, so money has to keep pouring in and we have to hope that foreign creditors (including the equally busted Brits, it seems) continue to buy-in US Treasury securities.

How to come down from this perilous height?