Brady Willett offers his predictions for 2008, including (at some stage) a major correction in the gold price, and Chinese equities.
I've reported expert comment before, about the vulnerability of gold to market manipulation and speculation. I think I'll keep on sitting out this dance.
Monday, January 07, 2008
Inflation or deflation: an expert writes
So it's not just me, even chart analysts like Captain Hook can't decide about IN vs. DE.
Also heartening to see my suggestion re insider jiggery-pokery echoed here:
As an aside, I still don't know what to make of the triangle / diamond in Goldman's chart (see Figure 4) other than they plan to squeeze stocks higher under the cover of low volumes over Christmas holidays in justifying their bonuses.
Also heartening to see my suggestion re insider jiggery-pokery echoed here:
As an aside, I still don't know what to make of the triangle / diamond in Goldman's chart (see Figure 4) other than they plan to squeeze stocks higher under the cover of low volumes over Christmas holidays in justifying their bonuses.
Sunday, January 06, 2008
A winning combination
The Daily Mail alleges a new craze called "celebrity maths", where you combine two famous faces to make a third. Who might be the third here?And what other political combinations would you like to see?
Gold and liberty
Fear, and the resentment of the oppressed, are more dangerous than bullish aggression.
I watched a programme last night about how we very nearly had the Third World War in 1983. This was a time when Russia was especially paranoid about the West's military intentions - spies were even ordered to report how many lights were on in late evening at the Ministry of Defence in London, apparently not knowing that the offices were lit so the cleaners could do their work.
Then in September, a Soviet spy satellite, fooled by sunlight reflecting off high-level cloud, reported not one, but five missile launches from America. The Russian monitor on duty ignored the klaxon and flashing screen, backed his judgment and told his superiors it was a false alarm, for which he was ultimately discharged from the Army. Wikipedia says his name is Stanislav Petrov. He's certainly worth more than the $1,000 the Association of World Citizens could afford to award him. We may owe him our lives.
Looking for updates on the gold dinar, I came across this blog by a Pakistani, in which he looks to the Islamic dinar as a way of breaking the enslavement of the world by a fiat-currency banking cartel. Irrespective of whether he's justified in his analysis of the situation, or reasonable in his hopes for such a currency, we should note the victim-perception. I seem to recall a maxim (from Sun Tzu?) that you should fear a weak enemy.
Which brings us back to the economic vulnerability of the UK and USA. Weakness can invite aggression, but also makes the weak fear an attack even when it isn't coming. Worryingly for a potential aggressor, weakness may be feigned:
22. If your opponent is of choleric temper, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. ("Laying Plans")
I don't think you can truly be free until you are strong and independent. We need to get our houses in order, so we can deal with others from a secure base - which is safer for all involved.
I watched a programme last night about how we very nearly had the Third World War in 1983. This was a time when Russia was especially paranoid about the West's military intentions - spies were even ordered to report how many lights were on in late evening at the Ministry of Defence in London, apparently not knowing that the offices were lit so the cleaners could do their work.
Then in September, a Soviet spy satellite, fooled by sunlight reflecting off high-level cloud, reported not one, but five missile launches from America. The Russian monitor on duty ignored the klaxon and flashing screen, backed his judgment and told his superiors it was a false alarm, for which he was ultimately discharged from the Army. Wikipedia says his name is Stanislav Petrov. He's certainly worth more than the $1,000 the Association of World Citizens could afford to award him. We may owe him our lives.
Looking for updates on the gold dinar, I came across this blog by a Pakistani, in which he looks to the Islamic dinar as a way of breaking the enslavement of the world by a fiat-currency banking cartel. Irrespective of whether he's justified in his analysis of the situation, or reasonable in his hopes for such a currency, we should note the victim-perception. I seem to recall a maxim (from Sun Tzu?) that you should fear a weak enemy.
Which brings us back to the economic vulnerability of the UK and USA. Weakness can invite aggression, but also makes the weak fear an attack even when it isn't coming. Worryingly for a potential aggressor, weakness may be feigned:
22. If your opponent is of choleric temper, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. ("Laying Plans")
I don't think you can truly be free until you are strong and independent. We need to get our houses in order, so we can deal with others from a secure base - which is safer for all involved.
Iraq may have the last laugh
A company called Sebastian River Holdings is substantially increasing its investment in Iraq:
... prior to the war with Iraq the Dinar was $3.00+ per US Dollar.
...Today the country is almost debt free; Iraq is one of the leaders in oil, natural gas and holds a huge amount of gold in its country.
... The Company believes in the near future there will be a revalue of the Iraq Currency, it is the Company's opinion after doing its due diligence and public statements from Iraq's government officials, that the revalue could come in at between .82 and 1.00 per US Dollar.
... prior to the war with Iraq the Dinar was $3.00+ per US Dollar.
...Today the country is almost debt free; Iraq is one of the leaders in oil, natural gas and holds a huge amount of gold in its country.
... The Company believes in the near future there will be a revalue of the Iraq Currency, it is the Company's opinion after doing its due diligence and public statements from Iraq's government officials, that the revalue could come in at between .82 and 1.00 per US Dollar.
Twang
Jim in San Marcos borrows and discusses a chart showing homeowners' equity. As residential property prices drop, more borrowers move into negative equity. He says bank-owned properties (REOs) are already pricing-in a fall of 30%+.
"Examine the disappearing equity. It came from no where and is going back to no where."
That's what happens when credit becomes a form of currency, as the bullion moralists keep reminding us.
Why are banks allowed to create so much "fiduciary money"? Who does own the Fed?
"Examine the disappearing equity. It came from no where and is going back to no where."
That's what happens when credit becomes a form of currency, as the bullion moralists keep reminding us.
Why are banks allowed to create so much "fiduciary money"? Who does own the Fed?
Saturday, January 05, 2008
Bitter medicine
The Levy Economics Institute runs a range of figures through its economic model and decides that it is pessimistic for the short-to-medium term, but guardedly hopeful for the state of the US economy afterwards:
... the present crisis is already more serious than any that has occurred before in modern times.
... Our projections, taken literally, imply three successive quarters of negative real GDP growth in 2008. Spending in excess of income returns to negative territory, reaching -1.6 percent of GDP in the last quarter of 2012—a value that is very close to its “prebubble” historical average.
... while the rate of growth in GDP may recover to something like its long-term average, all our simulations show that the level of GDP in the next two years or more remains well below that of
productive capacity.
... We conclude that at some stage there will have to be a relaxation of fiscal policy large enough to add perhaps 2 percent of GDP to the budget deficit.Moreover, should the slowdown in the economy over the next two to three years come to seem intolerable, we would support a relaxation having the same scale, and perhaps duration, as that which occurred around 2001.
Our projections suggest the exciting, if still rather remote, possibility that, once the forthcoming financial turmoil has been worked through, the United States could be set on a path of balanced growth combined with full employment.
... the present crisis is already more serious than any that has occurred before in modern times.
... Our projections, taken literally, imply three successive quarters of negative real GDP growth in 2008. Spending in excess of income returns to negative territory, reaching -1.6 percent of GDP in the last quarter of 2012—a value that is very close to its “prebubble” historical average.
... while the rate of growth in GDP may recover to something like its long-term average, all our simulations show that the level of GDP in the next two years or more remains well below that of
productive capacity.
... We conclude that at some stage there will have to be a relaxation of fiscal policy large enough to add perhaps 2 percent of GDP to the budget deficit.Moreover, should the slowdown in the economy over the next two to three years come to seem intolerable, we would support a relaxation having the same scale, and perhaps duration, as that which occurred around 2001.
Our projections suggest the exciting, if still rather remote, possibility that, once the forthcoming financial turmoil has been worked through, the United States could be set on a path of balanced growth combined with full employment.
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