Friday, November 18, 2022
FRIDAY MUSIC: Duo Del Mar, by JD
Sunday, November 13, 2022
COLOUR SUPPLEMENT: It's Surreal Thing, by JD
Friday, November 11, 2022
FRIDAY MUSIC: Clara Ponty, by JD
Wednesday, November 09, 2022
America: where did it all go wrong?
Was the American Revolution like throwing off the British Government in favour of rule by the East India Company?
Discuss.
Monday, November 07, 2022
America's Choice (like the UK, you are gently doomed)
- Starve The Poor Party
- Keep You Poor Party
My American brother explains the GOP two-step dance like this: cut taxes, and when that creates a budget deficit, cut benefits. In the ‘shining city on a hill’ for which they aim, the rich will pay no tax at all and the poor will simply die and cease to be a burden.
Until then, American billionaires are happy with funding think tanks, universities and lawyers’ associations to spread fear of ideological opponents, to bend the Constitution to their ends and condition ordinary people to see the game as one of opportunity and themselves as ‘temporarily embarrassed millionaires.’ It’s the proposition of State and national lotteries: it probably won’t be you - but it could be, surely your luck is better than average!
Meanwhile the financial extraction continues.
It’s a systemic thing: Adam Smith tackled this in 1776, discussing (among other things) the then ‘present state of Bengal’ (Wealth of Nations, Book 1, Chapter 8.)
Not very long before, in 1757, the British East India Company defeated the rulers of Bengal at the Battle of Plassey and took over. As a commercial company it was determined to ‘maximise shareholder value’ and did this by raising the tax on agricultural produce from 10 per cent to 50; and forbade the farmers from laying up stores (not that they could now afford to do so); and pushed them towards growing cash crops for trade, such as poppies and indigo.
This resulted in a shortage of grains for the people.‘John Company’ responded to the revenue shortage by raising the tax rate further on those farmers who could still pay.
There was a minor shortage of crops in 1768 which was not an alarming situation.
But in 1769, there was a monsoon failure followed by severe drought. Starvation deaths started by 1769, but the company officials ignored this situation.
By 1770, the death count was increasing and almost 10 million people fell victim to this man-made devastation.
In a fertile country where a third of the population had recently starved to death, you might expect a rebound, an end to the hunger years. But no, said Smith, because the British ‘vampire squid’ continued to suck out profits:
… three or four hundred thousand people die of hunger in one year [because]… the funds destined for the maintenance of the labouring poor are fast decaying. The difference between the genius of the British constitution, which protects and governs North America, and that of the mercantile company which oppresses and domineers in the East Indies, cannot, perhaps, be better illustrated than by the different state of those countries.Today in America, if the people could see avoidable death coming to them and their families because of oppressors, they would be able to do more than could the rural peasants of Bengal, but the Democrat FDR saved the system in the 1930s with (amongst other measures) the introduction of social security, so deplored by the wealthy.
Nevertheless, there is still an analogy with Bengal, in that those at the bottom end cannot lay up stores of wealth. They will be poor while they work (if they have work at all) and poor when they cease to work.
But they won’t die, not straight away. They won’t live quite so long - maybe 10 or 12 years less than the top tenth of society - and they will have worse health; medical and welfare costs will be expensive, even if grudgingly funded. Their children won’t starve either, and will be entitled to schooling and other support.
So one way to look at the underprivileged is as ‘useless mouths’ or ‘surplus population,’ a ball and chain on the legs of successful workers and entrepreneurs.
Another way is to see how the system works, and this is where Trump came in. Now Donald Trump was possibly the worst imaginable advocate for the ideas he was pushing - what was needed was an oily professional politician of the kind that we affect to despise but still vote into office.
Yet what he saw was the use of immigration and foreign outsourcing to keep down the wage rates of the indigenous working population - and as a side effect, cementing millions more into under- or un-employment, with further expensive multiple consequences for a society that has not yet become so hard-hearted that we just step over the bodies in the street.
Trump’s become almost an asset for the Dems, a bogeyman to scare up their supporters into turning out and voting. Yet this maverick (and crook etc.) is just a surfer; we need to look at the wave that carried him into the White House. Who voted for him? What are they like?
Ignorant? Maybe America should invest more in decent schooling. Resentful at economic precarity? Maybe America should do more to increase permanent employment and improve wage rates.
Maybe if the ordinary people of America had more jobs and more money and better education, their health would be better and so they would be able to work more years and pay more taxes but not at such high rates, and save more and retire in relative ease, and be happy (as far as people can be) and free, and neighbourly.
You would think that the Other Party - the Democrats - would, like the British Labour Party, work towards those goals.
Except the British Labour Party has long since ceased to represent the interests of the labouring classes; the class struggle has become one between the people and those who are supposed to speak for them. What Labour wants is to carry on winning elections, and to do that it has to maintain its client base. It does not want the proles to be better educated, climb up the ladder into the middle class and get notions of self-sufficiency. Labour was kicking away the ladder even in the 1960s - here, according to his wife, is Labour’s Education Secretary in 1965:
If it's the last thing I do, I'm going to destroy every f****ing grammar school in England. And Wales, and Northern Ireland.And for all the schemes and handouts promised and provided by the Democrats, isn’t their approach much the same?
It can’t go on forever. The American middle class will be squeezed and squeezed, the underclass will feed and breed (why are the Right against abortion? Adam Smith noted the Chinese custom of drowning the babies they didn’t need); and the Welfare State will rot and collapse.
The Right won’t stop - they seem to imagine that they will be forever immune to the social disruption they are stoking; but where are the rich Mayans today?
So it’s down to the Dems, if they can get off buying votes with grubby handouts; if they can stop warmongering and endangering everybody; if they can protect the workers against unbeatable competition from ‘free trade’ and lower-wage labour forces.
Will they?
Recession signs
You can hear the recession
Not this year. A pop or two in the days immediately before and after, something mild on the night. No more 70s Beirut.
Anybody else spot straws in the wind?
Sunday, November 06, 2022
COLOUR SUPPLEMENT: The Art of Painting, by JD
Friday, November 04, 2022
FRIDAY MUSIC: Jazz Violin - Jean-Luc Ponty, by JD
Saturday, October 29, 2022
Friday, October 28, 2022
FRIDAY MUSIC: Mercedes Sosa, by JD
Monday, October 24, 2022
Truss has exposed our great crisis: the fight for freedom
New on Substack: Truss and our fight to stay free - why not subscribe for FREE immediate updates?
Sunday, October 23, 2022
COLOUR SUPPLEMENT: The Art of Drawing, by JD
New on Substack: Truss and lessons learned
Please see here - and sign up for FREE immediate updates !
Saturday, October 22, 2022
WEEKENDER: It's a mad, mad, mad, mad world 2 - by Wiggia
My lack of items in the last two weeks is attributed to a combination of Windows update and Firefox going potty. One or the other, or maybe both, I will never know, has removed access to files, stopped my ability to download anything, and if by nefarious means I did manage to download a program or replacement I was not able to install it, so at great cost I have a new computer. The other one was old if still working, so I am up and running? Again.
So much passes through as news these days that keeping up becomes an Olympic sport, and the current government, if that term can still be used, have exceeded all expectations in the ridiculous and stupid category; if there were gold medals in those categories there would be a run on the yellow stuff, there is simply not enough to go round. So I wont go over ground that is constantly shifting - sink hole, anyone? - but will just make a small comment on the Conservative party's choice of Chancellor (or is it PM by proxy?) in his first speech on the tax u-turns.
One he didn’t u-turn on was the stamp duty reduction; can’t upset the parties biggest donors can we, have to keep house prices up and any cost so the DM can still add to any story that x was guilty but can be seen here in leafy ***** standing outside his 5 bedroomed detached Victorian Villa currently worth 2 zillion pounds.
They never learn. After the disastrous Ponzi scheme that resulted in the 2008 crash, banks governments lenders still want to lend to those cannot pay. Already those same lenders are revising their lending terms because of interest rate rises; well well well there’s a surprise, they have used years of low interest rates to promote house buying in the belief they would never rise again, or they didn’t care. What was normal in years gone by is now unthinkable but happening anyway.
House purchase has become like governments, reliant on low or zero interest rates. Unlimited fiat money can only ever be paid for with low interest rates, but inflation has blown that out of the water and we now have debt servicing out of control.
They still don’t get it. This morning a government spokesman, MP, was talking about the imminent drop in house prices as a bad thing! As if the constant above inflation rate of house prices has been a good thing. It won’t be interest rate rises that will lead to repossessions this time, that currently is well below those days of 16%, but a combination of energy rises and general cost of living as well will do it.
On the other hand government policies have denied those who saved all their lives of any return on said savings coupled with the lowest state pension in Europe, and again under threat of removal of the ‘promised ‘ triple lock; this sector has been to put it crudely crapped on from a great height.
Hunt, where did he come from? His failure as health minister and three failed businesses hardly makes him an obvious choice for Chancellor at this or any other time. He stated that ‘the public would not mind paying extra tax to fund the NHS’; oh yes they would, not a penny more without root and branch reform first.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/jeremy-hunt-tory-leadership-boris-johnson-nhs-junior-doctors/
On the other hand it is comforting to know the IMF will be in safe hands next year. I can’t think of a better person to run it coming as she does from one of the 10 most corrupt countries in the world; along with Saudi Arabia heading up the UN's human rights committee it is a win-win for us all.
Currently we pay for an NHS that in many areas is non existent with no sign of anytime soon if ever of improving; plus many including my good self have had to pay again, as three years from diagnosis to operation for a new hip would have seen me in a wheelchair long before I went under the knife. Seven million on the waiting list and rising and a care home crisis beyond the pale with the government decision to sack 40,000 care home staff who refused the jab - a major hurdle to overcome if it ever can be. Oh wait, all these fit young asylum seekers we are told by the various charities are ready to work rather that laze around in five star hotels will plug the gap, all is well again.
In the case of the sacked care home staff, no one has been able to explain why (or not wanted to) the nurses and others in the NHS got a last minute reprieve from the same fate; or were the care home staff considered fodder for the ideology of the vaccines vis a vis the mainstream staff who were ready to sue?
It is interesting in a morose way to ask why we have such difficulty either returning these illegal, and they are so by definition, migrants, and our seeming inability to refuse them asylum despite so many destroying their documents which leaves them presumably stateless with no country to return them to. You can’t be fleeing from torture, war and threat of murder if you won’t say where you have come from, or is that naive?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-cant-britain-control-migration-3pwmrkhkm
As Mark Steyn so succinctly puts it ‘we live in a blizzard of lies’ whether it be the efficacy of masks, lock downs or so called vaccines or the real reason we cannot say no to the huge numbers that have come to this country: 10 million officially, in the last twenty years.
Mind you it should help the travel trade as long as flying is still permitted, as a staycation will soon be impossible with the hotels full of migrants, and now we are, or Serco is on our behalf, leasing properties to put up the same; that should help those on the council house waiting lists.
Coming our way soon………..
It really is a growth business now, £2.2 billion of tax payers money to Serco alone. These contracts have guaranteed built in 5k maintenance element to them which makes them attractive to landlords, nowhere else would they get contracts like these.
Outside of all this it was good of Let's Go Brandon, who managed in his muddled way whilst eating an ice cream, easily digestible hospital food for the infirm, to tell us our tax plans are not good. His of course are marvellous as is the USA's debt mountain; good to know though we are all in it together, or that is what we are told!
A final thought from the comments…
‘Just step back a moment and consider that the Conservative Party have, in the past week, fired a Chancellor for wanting to cut taxes and a Home Secretary for wanting to cut immigration.‘
Good job we don’t have a Foreign Secretary who wants to cut aid…
Friday, October 21, 2022
FRIDAY MUSIC: Jazz Samba (Stan Getz / Charlie Byrd), by JD
And so one of the first jazz records I bought was Jazz Samba by Charlie Byrd and Stan Getz. I suppose jazz plus samba could be described as a 'fusion' record but that name came much later. Byrd had already made a record with samba influences so this was a further experimentation on his part. Getz was a well established tenor sax player who had been one of the 'four brothers' in Woody Herman's band.
Listening again to this record is still a pleasure and a blessed relief in a world gone mad.
1: "Desafinado" (Antônio Carlos Jobim, Newton Mendonça) — 5:51
2: "Samba Dees Days" (Charlie Byrd) — 3:34
3: "O Pato" (Jayme Silva, Neuza Teixeira) — 2:31
4: "Samba Triste" (Baden Powell, Billy Blanco) — 4:47
5: "Samba de Uma Nota Só" (Antônio Carlos Jobim, Newton Mendonça) — 6:11
6: "É Luxo Só" (Ary Barroso) — 3:40
7: "Bahia" (aka 'Baia') (Ary Barroso) — 6:38
Timeline:
[00:00:00] - Track 1
[00:05:49] - Track 2
[00:09:21] - Track 3
[00:11:24] - Track 4
[00:16:14] - Track 5
[00:22:27] - Track 6
[00:26:06] - Track 7
Personnel:
Stan Getz – tenor saxophone
Charlie Byrd – guitar
Gene Byrd – guitar, bass
Keter Betts – double bass
Buddy Deppenschmidt – drums, percussion
Bill Reichenbach Sr. – drums, percussion
Wednesday, October 19, 2022
Financial and war disaster: we must get a grip
- ignore warnings about bad actors who threaten the public weal
- witness the disaster and express surprise
- take action to ‘make sure’ it ‘can never happen again’
4. undo (3) so we can have a rerun of the calamity
He may not have drafted the new Act, but he signed it into law. Please don’t tell me he was too stupid to understand what he was doing.
I’ll come back to the Great Financial Crisis in a moment.
Now, in the UK, we have Liz Truss as PM. For how long, we don’t know, but she has already scored an entitlement to an annual pension worth half her salary. This applies to all PMs and ‘senior office holders’ no matter how short their service - including Kwasi Kwarteng, Chancellor for only 38 days. George Galloway calls Truss ‘thick as mince in a bottle’; well, we should all be so stupid.
Being a dim bulb is almost the least of our worries, as we will find out when the bright and slick ex-Goldman Sachs globalist Rishi Sunak takes the reins. He’s been pumping ads on Facebook for months like an Alan Sugar apprentice tasked with demonstrating PR skills. He wants the job so badly that it should disqualify him.
No, it’s her motives that concern me. I was curious when Truss’ first Chancellor cut the basic rate of income tax by one per cent: how much was that going to help poor people pay their hugely inflated energy bills? The five per cent cut to the top rate was bad optics at this time of growing hardship, of course; but the real puzzle was the complete removal of the ceiling on bankers’ bonuses - with which Jeremy Hunt will proceed. ‘What was all that about?’ as the saying goes.
I understood when I saw this information and analysis from Peter Oborne:
Truss isn’t working for the British people. She acts for the super-rich, the hedge fund managers and property developer types who party at 5 Hertford Street in Mayfair, London. This is where she held a ‘Fizz with Liz’ event last October (2021), paid for by Mark Birley, son of Lady Annabel Goldsmith’s first husband and attended by around a dozen Tory MPs.
The Mayfair millionaires do not require critical intelligence and moral probity in their servants, far from it. Oborne says they funnel money, not directly to the Conservative Party (which would have to be made public) but to ‘think tanks’ that then come up with policy proposals to suit their sponsors. They boasted, says Oborne, that they had ‘made Kwasi Kawarteng’s Budget for him’ - and, he says, KK went to one of their events straight after delivering his speech to the Commons.
This is the class that caused the incalculable damage of the GFC - estimates vary widely but run into the trillions. Beneath the financial cost is the human cost in the health and very lives of ordinary people.
But they can’t help themselves. C P Snow wrote of the ‘corridors of power’; these are the labradors of power, with no off-switch for their appetite. Someone has to discipline them.
In 1933 FDR allowed some banks to fail, regulated others and introduced legislation to separate deposit-takers from the casino-gambling of investment bankers. This time, when the GFC hit, there was no strong President to cleanse the stables.
Instead, the people responsible for the chaos were bailed out with unlimited cash. The clever-clogs guys at Goldman Sachs even counted the bail money as additional turnover and paid big bonuses on the strength of it.
Came the hour, came Barack Obama, and it is a tragedy that with the great popular support he initially enjoyed he could not or would not deal with the offenders. Their sense of entitlement has now grown into a kind of megalomania.
A fantasy moment: these rich are assembled at the Guildhall, London for the annual Lord Mayor’s Banquet. Full of good food and wines, they watch the PM rise to make a speech. He or she smiles and tells them that mobile communications have been jammed, the doors locked and they are all under arrest for financial terrorism. They are to be held in Belmarsh under the same conditions as Julian Assange, awaiting trial at which they will appear in cages like the Mafia whom the Italians so bravely prosecuted. They will receive swift, no-nonsense judgment from someone like Judge Judy Sheindlin, with no possibility of appeal. The innocent will be released and handsomely compensated for their inconvenience; the others will be heavily fined and incarcerated for a very long time.
Of course, in real life there will be no deus ex machina to resolve our difficulties.
Nevertheless, something has to happen. Perhaps it will be debt forgiveness or default, but we cannot let our governments be the playthings (or over-indulgent uncles) of global money-shufflers.
Oborne raises another worry: like demented Joe Biden, Truss has a finger on the nuclear button. We cannot afford the process outlined at the start of this post; Stage Three may not be a possibility.
There has to be action instead of disaster, not following it.
Sunday, October 16, 2022
Back into the EU? I think not!
I reply:
It was the Tories who got us into 'Europe' in the first place, starting with Macmillan and completed by Heath. https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/cabinetpapers/themes/eec-britains-late-entry.htm
But the background was how the US threw money into Europe (having abandoned the Morgenthau proposals to break the Germans down into rural earth-scratchers) after abruptly shutting off vital financial support to us in September 1945. That's why Macmillan wanted to catch up the Frogs and Krauts; the effects on Britain's industry and economy of joining the EU's card game are here for us to see.
Now, the Tories are split between patriots, wet-finger-in-the-air types like BoJo, and globalists (= supporters of the American Empire.)
The Labour Party has been split for sixty years and more over the EU issue. See Hugh Gaitskell's speech to the Labour Party Conference in October 1962, warning against the enthusiasm for membership of the Common Market. https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/speech_by_hugh_gaitskell_against_uk_membership_of_the_common_market_3_october_1962-en-05f2996b-000b-4576-8b42-8069033a16f9.html
He laid his finger on the tension in the socialist movement between international brotherhood and promoting the interests of working people at home; a tension that has never been adequately resolved and which has been clouded over with dreamy rhetoric from bloviators on both sides of the Commons debating chamber.
As for our influence in the EU - please Noel Coward, I have only so many ribs. Now if we chose to become the 51st US State, *then* we might have some influence.
We've been a damn sight poorer than we are today. I remember no fridge and an outside lavvy, but we managed. It's not about money; even now we live like kings and queens compared to past ages. If you want to see what life was like in the East End of London before the ‘damn socialists’ interfered, read Jack London’s 1903 book The People of the Abyss (free online here: https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/1688 ) - this, in the heart of the world’s then richest and mightiest Empire. Every home should have a copy.
There's a hill to climb but it can be climbed, and I don't think re-entering the undemocratic EU would do us any favours. Surely we're not the only ones to feel that way: people in Italy, Greece and Hungary would be glad to exit, Macron has just pledged not to get involved in a nuclear fracas in Ukraine just to please NATO, even the Germans are tempted to look east and may feel more like it as they freeze this winter thanks to the bombing of NS1+2 by No One At All (because the Swedes won't say who.)
Does anybody else still believe in this country and its people? Or is that too Blimpish? I’m proud to be a Little Englander, i.e. an anti-imperialist. Our greatness is not in wealth but in freedom and sovereign self-government.
Friday, October 14, 2022
FRIDAY MUSIC: Sir John Tavener, by JD
Thursday, October 13, 2022
Ah'm a-geddin' nervous
But nobody told NATO.
NATO forces are to proceed with their annual nuclear-weapons exercise next week, entitled ‘Steadfast Noon.’ It’s said they have 100 atomic bombs in five European countries, each of which has a potential explosive capacity much more than 20 times that of ‘Little Boy’ which obliterated Hiroshima in 1945.

The Daily Mail uses this moment to publish another virulent piece by Ian Birrell about Putin’s appointment of General Sergei Surovikin, tasked with handling the escalating war in Ukraine.
Meanwhile the ultra-rich are having luxury bunkers built for them so they can - as they think - safely sit out the suffering of the rest of us. Russell Brand satirises this notion of invulnerability:
I guess there are really good bunkers below the CIA’s headquarters, and the Pentagon, and various sites in Washington. Will they be recruiting nubile totty to help re-breed the human race? How diverse will the neo-Lebensborn program be?
And what are we supposed to do? How many victims of assault think ’this can’t be happening’?
Why, if I weren’t so rational and modern, I might believe that Satan existed.
Sunday, October 09, 2022
COLOUR SUPPLEMENT: The Devil's Wheel, by JD
Saturday, October 08, 2022
WEEKENDER: The Housing Market, by Wiggia
The news that interest rates are going up has spooked the housing market. In truth it never takes much to do that as much of the property wealth accumulated is built on not-so-firm foundations, but has become over the years the base of much that the ordinary working man has accumulated in capital assets, in effect replacing ever poorer pension returns.
Friday, October 07, 2022
FRIDAY MUSIC: Mavis Staples, by JD
Thursday, October 06, 2022
Nordstream, Russia and the US
Russia? Maybe, but I think not.
I’ve seen one theory kited that it was part of a grand plan by Russia to weaken Germany severely, thereby destabilising the EU and making its constituent territories vulnerable to conquest. On the other hand, the countries that have previously suffered Soviet rule would be extremely resistant to reliving a similar experience; I should imagine that Poland, for one, would fight almost to the last citizen.
Besides, if we are to believe Hillary Clinton, Putin is a right-wing nationalist, not a Communist. He has a stated interest in defending the rights of ethnic Russians who found themselves stranded in foreign countries following the collapse of the USSR, but even in the Baltic States they are a minority - about a quarter of the population in Estonia and Latvia, only 4.5% in Lithuania.
However, a 2014 survey of Russian citizens (possibly instigated by Putin) expressed concern about discrimination against Russians in these three states, which has worsened recently: there and in Poland, there have been reports of destruction of Russian monuments, and symbolic gestures of this kind can be a precursor to more direct persecution. Topping the list of victimised Russian expat communities was Ukraine.
One wonders whether the US would have waited eight years before military action to defend American citizens abroad who were under sustained attack with shot and shell. Even so, it seems obligatory for everyone in the West to say clearly and repeatedly that Putin’s intervention was foolish, criminal, inexcusable etc; instead of inevitable, however deplorable.
Is Putin a nasty piece of work? Would a sheep last long as the leader of a wolfpack? Even Ivan the Terrible seems to have started out fairly reasonable until the boyars poisoned his beloved wife. But if you think Putin is bad, consider who (or what junta) might replace him if he is overthrown. Let’s try to be realistic, not moralistic.
Russia has less than half the population of the United States and about double the land area. It is reasonable to suppose that she has her work cut out to hold on to what she has, especially facing a hugely populous China in the east, keen for lebensraum and envious of the wood, water and mineral resources of Mother Russia. Tibet has been abandoned by the British to China and its fate; Beijing is also eyeing disputed territory in northern India.
An alternative reading of Putin’s strategic aims as far as his Western borders are concerned, is that they are twofold:
- Putin needs to be seen by his support base, his voters, to defend Russians, their culture and religion. A leader who fails to act on behalf of the 25 million ethnic Russians living in the 14 non-Russian republics is not much of a leader. Mixed in with that is an element of hurt national pride following the fall of the Soviet Union; if that seems trivial, think how the humiliation of Germany after WWI helped the rise of an emotionally stunted loudmouth who ruined Europe and killed tens of millions of Russians.
- More practically, the bulk of Russia’s population lives in the western part and the trade routes along the Volga and Don are vital internally and also as a connection with foreign countries to Russia’s south and east. The Volga runs into the Caspian Sea which is bordered by Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Azerbaijan as well as Russia itself.
The Don flows into the Azov and thence to the Black Sea, whose shores Russia shares with the EU’s Bulgaria and Romania, as well as Georgia, Moldova, Turkey - and Ukraine.
Ukraine’s maritime borders on the Azov and Black Seas are therefore strategically vital. If an enemy occupies these areas he threatens Russian naval and commercial shipping. There is a reason, I think, why the neo-Nazi ‘Azov’ Battalion is so named.
All might have been well if Ukraine had remained non-aligned, or even agreed to regionalisation as per the Minsk proposals; but the application - recently repeated by Zelensky - to join the EU and NATO lit a match between Putin’s toes.
Surely it is reasonable to say that Putin has more to gain from peace and economic development than from the waste and bloodshed of war. Russia built Nordstream 1 to bypass potential interference from Ukraine (where major gas lines transit and two spurs cross in the Donbas, and which charges heavily for allowing their use), Belarus and possibly other third parties.

Germany has enjoyed economic advantage because the US and NATO have largely provided her military protection, but also from a long-term contract with Russia for cheaply priced gas. These are two factors in why Germany is (or was, until now) such an economic powerhouse and major sponsor of the EU. The second pipeline was to expand capacity. Germany and Russia as trade partners: win-win.
Germany has been persuaded to support Ukraine, but given the foregoing context, reluctantly one imagines. Now whether the story about broken Nordstream 1 pumps is or isn’t true, the sanctions against Russia prevent Siemens fixing them and at the same time certification of Nordstream 2 has been blocked. These are problems, but temporary ones, and could be used by both sides as levers in negotiations, with the prospect that an agreement might be reached and business as usual resume.
Not now, after the explosions; and not for a long time to come, if ever. The blow is devastating: US shipments of liquid natural gas - heavily priced and twice as CO2-producing as piped gas - can only satisfy some 10 per cent of Germany’s needs, and even then only when suitable port and processing facilities have been developed to receive them. The new Baltic pipe, owned by Poland and Norway, is said to be able to provide only another 10 per cent or so.
That’s assuming it all goes to Germany. The competition for gas energy supplies is going to become a sort of game of musical chairs, with the shortages inflating prices internationally. Even the UK could be facing cutouts.
This stands to ruin not only German industry but her agriculture - her imports of fertiliser are already dropping. Stand by for widespread food shortages and supply chain disruption all round.
So, cui bono; who benefits?
In 2019 the Rand Corporation stated baldly, ‘the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia.’ Turning Ukraine into a Vietnam soaks Russia’s resources and hampers her ambition to create a Eurasian EU using the trade routes along the Volga and Don and between the Caspian, Azov and Black Seas. And if Russia were to fall like Iraq, just imagine the feeding frenzy.
Will crippling Germany work as some allege is the intention, i.e. to cancel the possibility of Germany making a separate peace with Putin? These clever-clever plans have a habit of going wrong. In fact look at the trouble the CIA has sometimes caused for the US as well as its targets: the Gulf of Tonkin, the Bay of Pigs, Iran-Contra, the Gary Powers/U2 ‘just one more overflight’ messup that halted the growing rapprochement with Russia under Khrushchev and drove Moscow into the arms of its hawks.
Is it really so important to be a dog in the manger, to stop other countries and blocs becoming more prosperous? If so, why did the West feed the Chinese dragon and immiserate its own peoples?
To reverse the quotation from Hamlet, ‘Though this be method, yet there is madness in't.’
Wednesday, October 05, 2022
Tory Party consternation
Levied on incomes above £150,000 p.a., the cut would have cost ‘only’ £2 billion, but didn’t look good at a time when the general populace is hard hit by inflation - especially in energy bills - and the prospect of recession (or worse.)
This is the week of the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham and PoliticsJOE interviewed some members for their reactions:
The atmosphere at the BMI was interesting - I saw little groups of what looked like politicos on stair landings having discussions; not panic, but definitely an air of concern.
Similarly some of the speakers at the Bruges Group sessions - I am thinking in particular of respected economist Tim Congdon - had barely restrained passion in their voices. The 1 p.m. slot - ‘Getting Brexit Done and Overcoming the Economic Crisis’ - was notable for all the things that should be done as opposed to what is being done. There is a sense that we have been overtaken by events and at a particularly bad time, with an untested new leadership and (symbolically, but it matters) the recent loss of the Queen who so long represented stability and continuity for our country.
Having said that, Sir Bill Cash MP noted that the border-trade troublemaking by the EU in Northern Ireland is in the process of being addressed via the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, now going through the House of Lords, and said there would be trouble if the Lords try to block it. Tim Congdon reminded us of how much our membership of the EU had been costing us annually; now we have the liberty to rearrange our affairs without expensive and harmful interference from Brussels.
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https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7886/CBP-7886.pdf |
Just in time, seeing how the destruction of Nordstreams 1 and 2 seem set to plunge Germany into a slump and the EU itself into a possibly terminal turmoil.
As for the Chancellor’s U-turn, so far I haven’t heard a proposal to reverse the decision to remove the cap on bankers’ bonuses, something that the financial sector welcomed as according to them it would ‘attract talent.’ This, I take it, would be the sort of ‘talent’ that triggered the Global Financial Crisis, that made a fortune shorting the pound last week and at the same time cost the taxpayer £65 billion in support to pension funds that had played with bond-related derivatives. My term for these vultures and incompetents is The National Lootery.
For me the question is, are we headed back to the 1970s, or the 1930s?
Worse than the present crisis is the one we face if the Blair-style revolutionary Sir Keir Starmer is able to exploit the public’s disillusion with the Tories sufficiently to win a General Election and complete the destruction of the country. Repentant former Trotskyite Peter Hitchens says:
Sir Keir’s unregretted former membership of a weird revolutionary sect (the Pabloites) is known but not understood. If he wins the next Election, we will all discover what a full-on Red-Green government is like. Good luck with that, as the taxes squeeze and the lights go out and both houses of Parliament become neutered chambers of unopposed Leftists, anxious to tax you and tell you what to think.As for PM Liz Truss, she has previously tried to channel Margaret Thatcher in her photo ops, but Mrs Thatcher was highly intelligent, extremely hard-working and lucky. I’m pinning my hopes on Truss being very lucky; doesn’t look like it, so far.