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Wednesday, May 23, 2007

What a bear!

I am reading Richard Duncan's book "The Dollar Crisis" and plan to review it in detail here soon.
Meanwhile, searching for information on him, I stumbled across a different, but similarly-named author, Richard C. Duncan, who propounds what he calls "Olduvai Theory". This is a real spine-tingler. It looks at the history of world energy consumption per capita and concludes that we passed the peak a generation ago. He says industrial society is a unique and unrepeatable period, has a life-span of some 100 years, and will decline fast, starting in 2008. I hope he's wrong, but it gives us a terrific motive to look after the world much more carefully.

But instead of concentrating on the fear, which is how journalists sell their papers, let's look at the themes this throws up: increasing world population and everyone's aspiration for a higher standard of living. So there are very powerful driving forces pushing up the demand for food, water, land, metals, and energy sources. This is why the Daily Reckoning says commodities are an asset class that will dominate investment for the next 15 years.

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