Monday, August 11, 2025

Stockmarket: going down for the third time?

“… even a 50% decline in the stock market would not return any of the high-flying stocks to anywhere near reasonable valuation metrics,” says Karl Denninger, reading signs he saw “in front of the 2000 and 2008 market dislocations.”

In May 2007 I reported a similar prediction (Dow to drop 50%) by another expert, Richard Daughty aka The Mogambo Guru. It took two years to actualise but…

Denninger says his own pattern-reading is not a good timing indicator, but he seems convinced it’s going to happen again.

Still sanguine? Here’s a comment on my 2007 post:

Anonymous said...

I will bet your entire net worth the dow does not fall back to 6750. it would have a 7 multiple with 5-6% int rates not in anybody's lifetime

19 June 2007 at 23:12

To which I replied:

Sackerson said...

1. I'm a bear, so I'm looking to bet on sure things!

2. At one point, for a short time, the FTSE 100 dropped almost exactly 50% from its 2000 peak. It can happen.

20 June 2007 at 08:54

… and today I updated it:

Sackerson said...

Historical note: "The DJIA hit a market low of 6,469.95 on March 6, 2009, having lost over 54% of its value since the October 9, 2007 high." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_bear_market_of_2007%E2%80%932009#:~:text=The%20DJIA%20hit%20a%20market,mere%20three%20weeks%20of%20gains.

10 August 2025 at 14:35

Sunday, August 10, 2025

SUNDAY SUPPLEMENT: Hidden Spain, by JD

Here is the tale of our journey into 'hidden' Spain. I didn't realise how long ago it was. Is time speeding up? And now that I come to think about it, I have seen a lot of places which are really worth seeing; the Alhambra, Toledo, Aranjuez, Alcala de Henares with its links to Cervantes and Don Quijote and there is lots more I have yet to see. I will probably need a couple more lifetimes to see everything!

Cañón del Río Lobos

Travel writers sometimes tell us to step back from the Costas and seek out something different but usually they direct us to the big cities where we can spend even more money.

There is an alternative, a hidden Spain, well off the beaten track but you need a guide and if you are with somebody who knows then there are some beautiful places hidden away “far from the madding crowd’s ignoble strife.”

One such place is the Cañón del Río Lobos in the province of Soria (Castilla y León) and this really is in the heart of Spain a long way from the usual tourist trails.
After parking the car, we set off following the course of the river along the pathway among the trees. We exchange greetings with a shepherd and step to one side for him as he moves his flock of about 200 or so raggedy looking sheep (not bred for their wool by the look of them.)

And on we walked for about two miles, still following the river and seeing some of the resident colony of griffon vultures flying above the walls of the canyon. Then we came into a large clearing…. this picture was 'borrowed' from Google maps:
….and in the distance the San Bartolomé Hermitage. A small chapel, literally miles from anywhere, which is all that remains of the monastery said to have been built by the Templars in the 13th century. Because it was winter at the time of our visit the Hermitage was locked so we could not see inside.

To the right of the picture is la Cueva Grande, the largest of many caves in the valley and this one has a few rock carvings and cave paintings showing evidence of occupation of this area dating back to the bronze age.
This next picture is also from Google Maps. It is not a painting. It really does look like that, blue and gold striation. Very psychedelic especially in the sunshine.
A magical place and I thank my friends in Spain for taking me to see it. It is probably 20 or even 30 years ago when we were there (as long ago as that?) and at that time it was a hidden valley with few visitors.

But in the intervening years it has been added to the list of tourist attractions persuading visitors to explore inland Spain so there is now this link with a substantial amount of information in English - https://www.cañondelriolobos.com/rio-lobos-canyon/basic-information.html
There is also this BBC link which has a short video in Spanish but with English subtitles giving more information about the link to The Templars as well as the precise location of the Hermitage which is in the exact centre of the Iberian peninsula:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/reel/video/p08q45rj/why-did-the-templars-mark-this-mysterious-spot-on-the-map-

Friday, August 08, 2025

FRIDAY MUSIC: Flora Cash, by JD

"Flora Cash is a Swedish–American duo formed by Kosovo-born Shpresa Lleshaj and American musician Cole Randall. The two met on SoundCloud in 2012 and became musical partners. Their music, blending melancholic melodies and a mix of genres, reflects their diverse backgrounds and has garnered mainstream recognition, most notably with the single "You're Somebody Else", from their 2017 album, Nothing Lasts Forever (And It's Fine). This track achieved the number-one position on American alternative radio and received Platinum and Gold certifications in various countries, including the United States. With the 2023 release of the EP Vår Pil (Piano Quintet Suite för Rocker Peggy), Flora Cash expanded their musical oeuvre to include classical music. As of 2025, the duo has published four studio albums and ten EPs, as well as numerous singles."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flora_Cash

flora cash - You're Somebody Else [Bardcore / Medieval Style]
Sad but smiling
flora cash - You're Somebody Else (Official Video)
flora cash - For Someone (Official Video)
flora cash - The Builder (För J. Blom) - (Official Video)
Dedicated to Hans Johan Blom The Builder. He was 44 years old.
"The Builder" is a tribute to a friend, and an acknowledgment of the unsung builders in our world.
flora cash - Soul Mate (Lyric Video)

Tuesday, August 05, 2025

Michael Bentine's Bumblies, by JD

In the early days of television (1954/1955) Michael Bentine devised and wrote a thirteen part children's series about three friendly little aliens from outer space, cheerful ambassadors from the Planet Bumble, who landed in their flying saucer in the garden of an absent-minded professor of astronomy, with the express purpose of getting to know the children of Earth, and learning how to play their games.

The Bumblies had numbers rather than names. Bumbly One was their leader and the most intelligent one. Bumbly Two was the fattest and most jovial of the trio, and Bumbly Three was the dim one, who always got things wrong (and was similar to the Eccles character which Spike Milligan had made famous in The Goons).

The Bumblies slept on the ceiling and at the start of the every programme 'Professor' Bentine would order: "Bumbly One, come on down; Bumbly Two, come on down; Bumbly Three, come on down".

As far as I know this short clip is the only remaining film reminder of the series and featured Bumbly Three driving a racing-car round a table fitted out with a race-track, pit-stops, and a spectators stand where Bumbly Two gave a sports commentary on the event.
See also a further link:

http://www.turnipnet.com/whirligig/tv/children/bumblies/bumblies.htm

His programmes Potty Time and Square World ought to be repeated, everything else seems to be repeated endlessly.

He is/was a fascinating character. He taught the SAS his pistol shooting technique and was at the liberation of Bergen-Belsen which he describes vividly in one of his books. He wrote three autobiographies: The Long Banana Skin, The Door Marked Summer (which deals with his psychic experiences including his son's death in an air crash) and The Reluctant Jester.

Sunday, August 03, 2025

Civil war? Place your Betz

The Government is storing up trouble by ignoring a vital principle. This has happened many times in our history and the results are generally disastrous.

It is an ancient maxim derived from Roman law and Edward I quoted it in 1295: ‘what touches all should be approved by all’ (ut quod omnes tangit ab omnibus approbetur.) So was launched his Model Parliament that invited representatives of the Church, aristocracy and commoners. It was intended to get agreement for taxes to fund the King’s military adventures on the Continent.

However two years later Edward needed more resources. He tried to tax the clergy without Parliament’s say-so, press nobles into military service and seize England's wool exports. His barons ganged up and forced him not only to reconfirm Magna Carta but to add extra clauses specifying penalties for infringing it. These last he hived off into a separate document and eventually (1306) got the Pope to revoke it.

Nevertheless the ’Great Charter of Liberties’ was re-established as the foundation of the people’s relations with the monarch. It is something the ruling power has hated and struggled against ever since; something far more important than the right to informed consent: the right to informed dissent.

The would-be tyrant’s first point of attack is the public’s access to correct information and full understanding.

We saw this in the vexed story of our membership of the pan-European political project. Our entry into the ‘Common Market’ was validated by a 1970 Conservative General Election manifesto that promised ‘we can stand on our own if the price is too high’ - a price that Edward Heath accepted even when he realised belatedly that it would destroy our fishing industry.

Ten years earlier Lord Kilmuir had advised him on the potential subjugation of our laws to the Council of Ministers and of our courts to the European Court of Justice: ‘the surrenders of sovereignty involved are serious ones and […] should be brought out into the open now.’ On a matter of such import it was insufficient to play down the implications and smuggle the issue into a general manifesto like poisoned mushrooms into a stew; especially since according to a 2017 General Election survey “two-thirds of the UK public (67%) either don't read manifestos, or they don't know what they are.”

The February 1974 Labour manifesto said accordingly "The British people were never consulted about the Market.” When Harold Wilson came to power he submitted the issue to the public in a referendum boasting of his tough renegotiations with the Common Market in which his most important objectives had been “FOOD and MONEY and JOBS" (capitalisation sic); but not our power to say no, which the European citizens still do not have.

The fifth of Tony Benn’s “five questions” is “how do we get rid of you?” Thanks to the Lib-Con Coalition’s Fixed Term Parliaments Act (2011) we cannot get rid of Sir Keir Starmer before 2029 unless he wishes to go (or a Labour Conference defenestrates him in a leadership battle.)***

In the meantime there are to begin with two major issues on which majority consent has not been obtained and where informed dissent is being suppressed: the continued drive for mass immigration and our gradualist re-binding to the Europeanists’ empire.

The growing tensions have led commentators to speculate on a prediction by professor of war studies David Betz that we will see civil war in Britain within five years. This writer sees it as unlikely.

In the first place the threat to domestic peace is not a general uprising but sporadic unrest in areas particularly affected by social and economic tensions. There has also been conflict between minority groups as for example in Leicester in 2022. Anarchy may be more of a threat than revolution.

Secondly, a tyrannical regime can survive a long time with the use of propaganda, secret police and paramilitary law enforcement. Today the ruler’s grip can be even tighter and longer, because of the development and spread of personal communications technology. Within the last twenty years smartphones have appeared and (so Grok says) are now used by 98% of under-55s and 85% of over-65s in the UK. The liar, censor and police informer are in your pocket.

Our government spies at will on all our electronic communications, has legislated online information and discussion and could easily shut it off altogether. It has even shown it can ‘de-bank’ individuals whose opinions it dislikes - Canada did so on a large scale during the truckers’ protests.

In 1991 Tony Benn told Parliament “riot has historically played a much larger part in British politics than we are ever allowed to know.” In the past, public reactions have sometimes acted as a moderating system, like the ‘governor’ in an engine. But today’s State with its technology and vast publicly-funded manpower can control the masses in ways that the villainous despots of the twentieth century could hardly dream about. It is also poised to stamp out more organised pockets of resistance, as we saw in the brief appearance in 2020 of a stab-vested Black Lives Matter militia in Brixton; even the media coverage of this incident ceased very soon afterwards.

But when dissent is long and effectively suppressed the governorless machine may begin to ‘run hot’ and eventually break down. The longer the correction is delayed the greater the damage.

The problem is made more intractable because executive might is no longer centred either in the monarch or in his Prime Minister. If Dominic Cummings is right the seat of power is in the Cabinet Office which scripts not only Starmer’s responses in Prime Minister’s Questions but his and his ministers’ contributions in Cabinet meetings. Directy and indirectly the Office employs as many as 10,000 people - who can identify and call to account the prime movers in that morass?

If we cannot pull these threads together and place them in the hands of people who are directly answerable to the electorate we may become a fragmented and failed state.

*** Correction: the Fixed Term Parliament Act (2011) was repealed in 2022. Now, if the Government loses a vote of no confidence the Prime Minister will be 'expected' to resign or 'request' a dissolution of Parliament from the Monarch; otherwise the Government's term finishes five years after the previous General Election. What happens if the PM refuses to resign?
(A version of this, minus the incorrect paragraph appears on Wolves of Westminster.)

Friday, August 01, 2025

FRIDAY MUSIC: Lord Huron, by JD

Lord Huron is a Los Angeles-based American indie rock band composed of Mark Barry (drums, percussion), Miguel Briseño (bass, keyboard, theremin), Tom Renaud (guitar) and founder Ben Schneider (guitar, lead vocals). They released their debut album Lonesome Dreams in 2012, their second album Strange Trails in 2015, their third album Vide Noir in 2018, their fourth album Long Lost in 2021, and their fifth and most recent album The Cosmic Selector Vol. 1 in 2025.

Lord Huron combines country, western, folk rock, rock and roll, pop melodies and surf rock with soundtrack and new age influences to produce a sound The Wall Street Journal described as having "a decidedly cinematic flair, heavy on mood and evocative imagery. Lord Huron brings to mind the high-lonesome sound of antecedents like the Band, Neil Young, My Morning Jacket and Fleet Foxes".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord_Huron

Lord Huron - La Belle Fleur Sauvage, Sandy UT, 5/31/2025 live
Lord Huron - Fool For Love (Official Audio)
Lord Huron - When the Night is Over (LIVE)
Lord Huron - Love Me Like You Used To
Lord Huron - Nothing I Need
Lord Huron - Fire Eternal (feat. Kazu Makino) (Official Audio)