Thursday, September 19, 2013

Institutional warmism

Following yesterday's post about serialising some of John Cook's rebuttal pieces, the comments have persuaded me that I should continue putting them up in the shooting gallery.

But before I do, some other points and a request:

1. First, I need to make it clear that the comments I received privately were certainly not aimed at censoring Cook. But the depth of feeling in them clearly signalled that something has gone wrong in the academic debate on climate change.

2. As he himself says, Cook himself is not a climate scientist - his specialism is physics - and his site was set up pro bono by his lights as a convinced global warmist. Further, he says he "has no affiliations with any organisations or political groups." So he is not to be accused of having stymied anyone's career in climate science, or taking some rich man's shilling. When one glances around the internet he does seem to polarise (that wasn't intended as a pun) the participants, because of his (as some see it) excessive assertiveness;  but one has to remember that Skeptical Science is intended for the public and so oversimplification is bound to be a hazard. 

What gave me pause was the obvious - and surprising to me - strength of sentiment provoked by Cook, who appears to stand as a symbol of the triumphalism of the pro-warmist camp generally. And even in the comments to my related post yesterday, there are mutual insults and imputations of improper motive and so on. There is a level of tension that makes liberal suspension of judgement and bilateral respect very hard to sustain, and so I wondered whether it was worthwhile airing the discussion if all it achieved was to see the air thick with brickbats - "hooligan's confetti".

But this has led to another issue: what is causing this level of acrimony? There is smoke drifting over the hedge, and I'd like to see where the fire is.

I don't think it's just to do with disagreements over the truth. It's something to do with vested interests of various kinds, that's clear enough, and I'll be glad if anyone is willing to get down to specifics rather than generally tarring the other side as mercenary scoundrels.

That's my first request: specifics on conscious bias. While keeping an eye on libel laws, can anybody really show that someone has sold their integrity, instead of simply being funded for an opinion they had anyway?

And my second is about bullying and skulduggery. What evidence (if any) is there that people on either side have been leaned on or otherwise unfairly treated for not toeing the line? Is there any case where fervent revolutionaries or cold reactionaries have gone too far, and (in career terms) employed Stalin's maxim "no man, no problem"?

If you feel you can help, please contact me in confidence at wved@ymail.com. It will be very useful in getting the background - or the underlay - to this most contentious subject.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Unless indicated otherwise, all internet links accessed at time of writing. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

The Hierarchy

Folks,

Before I continue with my overview of the Freeman movement, I thought it would help if you knew your place in the world.

This is about The Hierarchy. Or more vitally, where you fit in the scheme of things. It is the single most important thing you can, or will, learn. It came to me late in life, but if you are relatively young, as you read these words, it will change your life. At least, I hope it will. Most of us do not know how powerful we are. This is deliberate. We are dumbed down on purpose. If we knew just what we were, instead of what we think we are, we could, and would, run rings around anyone we come into contact with. Primarily I mean the government. The police. In fact, anyone who works for the government. As long as they are, or claim to be, an agent of the government. When they clock off at 5 pm they are just like you and me again. They are human once more. But as long as they wave a badge in your face, you are dealing with the government.

However, once you have worked out where they sit in the hierarchy, the game changes. I am deadly serious about this. I defy anyone to tell me I am wrong.

You ready for this?

Alrighty then.

This is the pecking order:

1. Your God/your Creator. Stands to reason, does it not? Even if you aren't religious, TPTB are. Every oath taken has god in there somewhere.

2. You. Your creator made you. No-one else did. You report upline to him/her.

3. Dogs, cats, birds, cows, horses, dolphins, whales, penguins, aardvarks, skunks, chipmunks, gorillas, lions, tigers, giraffes, two-toed sloths, dung-beetles, flies, maggots, earthworms, amoebas and bacteria. (And every other species living on the planet today).

4. The government. And ALL of its agents. Companies and corporations. And all of its agents.

Did you get that? The government, and all of its employees, like tax collectors, policemen & women, customs officers, prison officers, parking wardens, ministers, prime ministers-and anyone who works for them, rank lower than bacteria. Lower than a simple amoeba. This not an insult, by the way. It is a statement of fact. It is indisputable.

They are agents for an entity made by man. The government itself is a thing. It is an artificial construct. It is a legal entity. It does not have a heart that beats. It does not have eyes that see. It does not have limbs that move. It does not have a mouth that speaks. It does not have a brain that thinks. It does not have blood coursing through its veins. It is inanimate. It has no life. It has no life force.

You have all of these things. Maggots have all of these things. Flies have all of these things. Dogs have all these things. Skunks have all these things. Things that put them squarely in the "living" bracket.

You are supreme on earth. Once you get to your version of heaven the game changes. Or, if you are an atheist, it matters not. You remain supreme, whether you believe in a god or not. On earth, you are at the top of the tree. You outrank every politician, every minister, every judge, and every officer of any company or corporation. They are merely extensions of the thing they made, and what made them can be unmade at the stroke of a pen. You cannot be unmade in this way. To unmake you, your life has to be ended. Likewise, you were not created/made at the stroke of a pen. It took a miracle to make you. I can buy a company off the shelf for £80 in the next twenty minutes. It's that simple. You are not simple. You were not simple to make, and you are not simple to run. You are a complex life-form, with complex needs, wants and emotions. For a corporation to function, all it takes is an idiot or two. (Or a genius or two, depending on your benevolence).

And yet, and yet we allow them to shove us around. To lock us up at a whim. To taser us. To beat the crap out of us. To stop us from travelling whenever they want to. To take over half of our money every week, every month, every year, for decades. To tell us what, and where we can smoke. Or drink. Or eat. To watch our every move on millions of CCTV cameras. To trap and store every personal email we ever typed to friends, to families, to loved ones. To steal and transcribe every telephone conversation we ever have. To tag us. To fine us. To control us utterly. And the worst thing of all? We pay them to "make" us do these things. We pay them willingly enough. We comply. We consent. We permit these atrocities.

Now that we know where they rank on the ladder of life, will you allow them to continue? Will you just roll over, bend over, and will you submit to them, those that rank lower than bacteria, ever again?

Or will you say no? Will you take control, and responsibility, for your life, the only life you're getting, for three score and ten years, or thereabouts? When you think about it, they, the government, need us. Very badly. Without us, they are finished. Without our money, they are finished. Without our consent, they are finished.

Would it be a bad thing, if that thing called government was eradicated? Would we miss it? We'd certainly be richer. We would, finally, be keeping all of our sweat equity. We would decide all on our own, to smoke, or to not smoke, to drink, or to not drink, to eat, or to not eat, to spend, or not to spend. To defend our homes and those we love in a manner we decide to be appropriate. To carry weapons, or not to carry weapons. To create our own courts, to appoint our own judges and juries. To appoint our own peace keepers. To decide for ourselves whether our children can play "tag"  or conkers in the playground. To decide when, if, and for how long our public houses open and serve beer. To decide whether we really need cameras watching us as we walk around our communities. To decide if we wanted to pay the workshy to laze around while we did all the work. To allow, or not to allow people from foreign lands to live and work on our lands. To make war with other countries, or to make peace instead, and to work out our own trade agreements with other communities, or other countries. To allow thugs and villains to roam our streets or to punish them according to the new rules set by our own communities, where everyone in it has a say.

Our government steals from us. All of our lives. And not only do we condone that theft, we encourage it! Sure, we'll pay £1.20 for a litre of petrol that costs 3p to make! Sure, we'll pay £3.00 for a pint of beer that costs 20p to make!! Sure, we'll pay £6.50 for twenty smokes that cost 30p to make!!! Keep adding to our burden, and keep easing your own. We'll pay!! And when we want a pension after chipping in to the fund for forty years, sure, you just keep moving that retirement age further away from me! I can work longer! And when I get sick, and that doctor says I cannot have treatment, sure, I'll just wander away like I should, despite paying for the service all my life!

There comes a time when you have to weigh up the costs and the benefits. I just did that, and the burden on me is grossly unfair. I can't complain because I agreed to it all. I agreed because I did not disagree.

I am disagreeing now. Finally, I am saying no. No more. No more will you get.

I say this, and I say it without ego, without arrogance, and without malice: I am in charge of my life from this day to my last day. No more will I submit to a thing.

No more.

My life. My rules. My law.

My choice.

Made freely, in a way only a sentient human being can.

CR.

PS-Some of you may have seen this post before on my old Blogger site.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Unless indicated otherwise, all internet links accessed at time of writing. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Should I continue to publish John Cook's Skeptical Science pieces?

I have an apology to make - I think.

On Monday, I commented on David Rose's piece in previous day's Mail on Sunday. His series has been tagged "The Great Green Con" and his contrarianism (with which I have no issue in principle, being awkward myself) has been expressed in a provocative style that may help sell newspapers but doesn't do much for the spirit of liberal debate. In fact Rose seems to go so far out of his way to rile that I mistakenly thought he might be Johann Hari, who did at one time use the name "David Rose"; I am sorry for the error, but I have little trust in newpapers any more and believe some of them capable of taking a black sheep back into the fold if it helps boost circulation. My bad, as the Americans say.

Rose's piece seized on the increase in Arctic ice cover as some sort of touchstone proof that the global warmists were wrong. So I cast about for some alternative explanation for this seemingly awkward fact. And came across a piece written by an Australian academic called John Cook, who described a plausible mechanism whereby ice at the other end of the world might be increasing as a result of global warming. He kindly agreed to let me republish here, and to use other material if I wished - and so I planned a series of his debunk-the-debunker pieces to run for a month or so, with the idea that it would stimulate and inform debate.

I didn't realize that I had gone pogo-sticking into a minefield.

Having left college nearly forty years ago, and only as a student, I had forgotten what I'd heard about how sharp academic controversy and rivalry can be. At Oxford, votes in the election of the University's Chancellor can be checked against the name of the voter, and careers have (it seems) come to a screeching, permanent halt just for backing the wrong candidate. I supported a friend in the last vote and found out from Who's Who that another candidate, Lord Blake, was also head of the Electoral Reform Society, which (I think) is in favour of secret ballots; my friend told me that when he was going round radio stations on the stump they treated him as an entertaining joke until he raised this point, and then he could hear the producer screaming "Cut!" into the interviewer's headphones.

Now it seems that climate change is an issue that can scarcely be discussed at all. Adherents on either side overstate their case and denigrate the opposition - deplorably like some of the politicians that infest our Mother of Parliaments. It was Andrew Neather who revealed that Labour was happy to encourage immigration partly because it would "rub the Right's nose in diversity" (though the implication of that metaphor is quite unpleasant, when you come to consider it).

Anyhow, it may well be that careers in science have also been blighted by backing the wrong candidate (would Richard Dawkins be fair to a Christian graduate student under his tutelage, I wonder; perhaps he would). And there's money in grants and lobbying to be had on both sides, too.

So the odium theologicum rages strong in this field. Alerted by very unhappy (private) comments about John Cook, I looked for evidence that he is considered extremist or over-eager in his advocacy. His site (Skeptical Science) is certainly assertive, just as Rose's articles are, and really I've been brought up to think that science is always tentative and provisional. And so like Rose (who I think is not himself a scientist, though he has chosen a scientific subject) he invites debunkers.

Which is what I was hoping for. A backs global warming, B rejects the theory, C (Cook) tries to debunk the contrarian, D (I would hope) picks holes in the debunking.

It seems it's not quite like that. The temperature of the debate is melting everyone's cool. At a milder level, the site WattsUpWithThat features a number of articles about Cook's claims, including a recent dissection of his assertion that the overwelming majority of scientists believe in global warming; on the same issue, two other writers leap to his defence in The Guardian.

But it can get much, much worse than that. Some of the comments on The Guardian's website, reacting to David Rose, are simply psychotic. There's a lot more mental illness around than we realise; people talking with a mask on lose their humanity, it seems.

Well, I had planned a series of Cook's pieces and let people take reasoned and factual pot-shots; but I didn't intend for anyone to be seriously unhappy. I came from a family that was prepared to argue about everything - Mother voted Labour, Father Conservative (why did they both vote, I wondered) - but retained that sense that anyone can be wrong about anything. We kicked the ball around in the air, but never at anyone's head.

As far as climate goes, either it will stay much the same for the rest of human history, or get warmer, or colder (either of which could have serious consequences for us); the truth matters, even though we may not be able to predict it, and if we are helping make the environment more dangerous, then we should do something about it - if we can; but maybe we're not, and we can't, or shouldn't. But surely honest and mutually respectful debate (from all sides) has the best chance of discovering something like the truth, and helping us make decisions that are less wrong.

You'll see from the Energy and Climate page that the sidebar has links to both camps. But should I continue to print Cook's pieces here on this main page, if all it does is increase heat without light? I'm sorry if that's all it's done.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Unless indicated otherwise, all internet links accessed at time of writing. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

So, You Want To Be A Freeman?

There is a great deal of confusion surrounding this movement. Hopefully this post will clear some things up.

Firstly, the term 'Freeman' covers men and women.

The full term would be Freeman on the Land. This is deliberate. It refers to law, or more specifically, common law and natural law (God's Law, if you prefer).

Why on the "land"?

Research, years of it, collectively, shows us that the UK (and the USA and others) operate on Maritime Law. Maritime Law is comprised of statutes. Statutes are plastic, Natural Laws are solid gold. Natural Laws concern rights, whilst Statutes concern benefits. The difference between the two is monumental. This should be obvious: statutes are created by men, and are therefore much less valuable than God's Law/Natural Law.

Each time a policeman asks you "Do you understand?", and you say "Yes", you just swapped all of your rights for benefits. You also surrender yourself to the bobby and you have just used Contract Law. You have entered into a verbal agreement to 'stand under' his/her authority. You really, really, really should not do this.

Case in point: last year I had cop after cop showing up at my house to deal with a speeding offence. (As explained in my last post, I wanted to be difficult). When they finally decided to read me my rights, after which the cop said "Do you understand?". I said "No". He asks, "Which part do you not understand?". I said, "All of it". He asks me, "Why don't you understand?". I replied, "Because I choose not to". "Ah", he said, "So you know what the phrase means then?". "Yes", said I.

It's a small thing, at first glance. Seemingly unimportant, but it threw the bobby for six. I had gone off their script and he was clearly unsure what to do next. His partner, (the designated 'bad cop') said, "Then we will take you to Fraserburgh police station to continue the questioning". I said, "Let's go. I have nothing else to do today". (Fraserburgh is a good 1.5 hours away. Why they couldn't take me to Banff (8 miles away) I never did learn). The good cop said (to his partner) "There's no need for that. Not in this case".

This, is essentially what being a freeman is all about. It's about not understanding. It's about not consenting. It's about retaining all of your rights. It's about refusing to accept benefits.

How do you go about becoming a Freeman?

Simply research the movement, read up on the do's and don'ts, discover the difference between legal and lawful, send off a NOUICOR* if you wish, and start thinking and behaving like the free soul that you always were. It's an attitude as much as anything else.

This kind of sums it up:



*a NOUICOR is a Notice of Understanding, Intent, and Claim of Right. Your autograph needs to be witnessed by three good men and true, or by one Public Notary. If  it is unrebutted after you send it off to the PM, or the Home Office, or your local Chief Constable, (or you can send it to no-one at all), it becomes law. Your law. Mine has been in force since 2008. In it, I revoked my consent to be governed. No-one disputed my Claim, and in law, if no-one disagrees, they agree.

So you now know that I am in Lawful Rebellion, and you know that I am a Freeman. The two are not connected. I just decided to notify Mrs Windsor that I was in Lawful Rebellion, and I chose to notify one Gordon Brown and later, one David Cameron, that I had revoked my consent, lawfully, to be governed. Neither wrote back to me. Neither of them disputed my witnessed Affidavits.

You can choose either path but be aware that they are quite different.

Freemen believe that their research proves, beyond a doubt, that when we were born, and our parents registered our birth, a legal fiction was created. This is indisputable, and I will explain why later. They also believe that shortly after our birth, a Bond is created. (The average value of the bond would appear to be around 1 million pounds for a 'working man', but considerably more if your anticipated lifetime earnings are themselves in the millions). The government of the day sells the bond to the BoE and is advanced whatever you are deemed to be worth. These Bonds are then traded on the international stock market, and mine, for instance, is said to be worth 70 or 80 million pounds by now.

Caveat: I have found no hard evidence of this Bond. The theory though, makes a great deal of sense.

Freemen know that we have been bankrupt since the Napoleonic Wars. Since then, the UK Debt Management Office, in cahoots with the Treasury, have operated a double-entry ledger system. Money in, money out, no profit shown. What does that mean, in practise?

Case in point: I was sent a demand by HMRC for 5K. It was in the form of a letter with one of those little giro things at the bottom. I filled in the boxes, added my autograph, and sent it back. They sent me a letter saying "You forgot to put in the cheque". I wrote back saying, "No, I didn't. I animated the bill* by adding my autograph. It is made out to cash. Take it to the Debt Management Office, their accountants will know what to do with it". They didn't do as I instructed and they sent another 'bill'. I repeated the process and sent it back to them. They wrote back saying that I hadn't paid. Again. I said "Fair enough. Send me back both giro-slips so that I can destroy them". They either wouldn't, or couldn't. The giro-slips are used to take payment from your 'Bond Account'. When they wrote again demanding payment, I said "I have already settled this account. I have paid you twice". They never contacted me again after that. This method of payment is called "Accepted For Value". Google the term to learn more.

*Bills-If you read (and you should) the Bills of Exchange Act 1882, you will learn what a Bill should look like. I haven't seen a proper bill in years. Perhaps decades. At least, not from the government. Nor have you, probably. In the Act, it clearly states that an offer accepted after 14 days means that the payment is settled. Since HMRC took several weeks, and in one instance, 3 months to reply, according to the BoE Act, the debt was paid. I could (under the terms of the Act) have offered bananas, potatoes, furry hats, or funny balloons as payment and if the offer was NOT rejected in time, then the offer stands as settlement.

Interesting factoid 1: If you should have bailliffs at your door demanding money, walk them to the pavement, take a witness, and ask them what it is all about. No doubt they will mention the amount owed. Make sure your witness heard it and then thank the bailliffs. It is highly unlikely that they will have read the BoE Act of 1882, so you can gently explain to them that the debt is settled. They will look perplexed, until you further explain that according to the act, a private debt spoken of publicly is automatically settled.

Interesting factoid 2: If  you have a Debt Recovery Agent at your door, first ascertain the amount they are after, then ask this question: "Did you/your company buy this debt from XYZ Ltd (the company you allegedly owe)?" If they say yes, simply thank them and close your door. Again, according to the BoE Act, they have settled the debt for you. They chose to pay off your bill. Be grateful, and send them on their way.

The Legal Fiction thing

As our courts operate under Maritime Law, they never see people. They never see human beings. They can only deal with legal fictions and corporations and limited companies. I am none of those. I am alive. I am animated. My heart beats, my lungs breathe, my blood flows, my arms and legs move. A legal fiction/corporation sole/limited company can do none of these things. So when a court calls your 'name', they actually want to do business with the fiction created shortly after your birth. As an experiment, next time you are in court, when they call your name, say "I am acting for that fiction". (It will cause apoplexy, but do persist). The judge/magistrate/sheriff will demand that you step forward (either into the dock or to the counsel tables) but you should refuse, insisting that you "wish to remain on the land". This messes them up entirely. Once you 'crossed the bar' you just left common law jurisdiction and stepped onto the high seas so that they can nail your fiction with Maritime Law.

It is fascinating stuff, but because it is so involved, I will end it here and continue with a second post in a few days time.

Please ask questions, or if you prefer, you can visit www.FMOTL.com and have a look through the various sections they have.

All I ask is that you keep an open mind, for now. It is very easy, having done no research whatsoever, to dismiss this as madness.

If you are fair about it, you will discover a lot of sanity in this fledgling movement.

CR.


All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Unless indicated otherwise, all internet links accessed at time of writing. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

The Armageddon text

Today, Yorkshire people in Easingwold will be the first place in the UK to receive sample disaster warnings by text message to cellphones.

What emergencies can you envisage (the Daily Mail suggests nuclear or terrorist attack), and what would your suggested message be?

Would it be available in dialect, slang, textspeak?

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Unless indicated otherwise, all internet links accessed at time of writing. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

John Cook's Climate Change Mythbusters 1

In this daily Broad Oak Magazine series, John Cook answers skeptical objections to climate change. We've taken those raised by 1% or more of online critics - 32 quibbles in all - but for the full list please see his site at http://www.skepticalscience.com/.
______________________________________

What does past climate change tell us about global warming?


What The Science Says:
Natural climate change in the past proves that climate is sensitive to an energy imbalance. If the planet accumulates heat, global temperatures will go up. Currently, CO2 is imposing an energy imbalance due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Past climate change actually provides evidence for our climate's sensitivity to CO2.
Climate Myth: Climate's changed before
Climate is always changing. We have had ice ages and warmer periods when alligators were found in Spitzbergen. Ice ages have occurred in a hundred thousand year cycle for the last 700 thousand years, and there have been previous periods that appear to have been warmer than the present despite CO2 levels being lower than they are now. More recently, we have had the medieval warm period and the little ice age. (Richard Lindzen)
If there's one thing that all sides of the climate debate can agree on, it's that climate has changed naturally in the past. Long before industrial times, the planet underwent many warming and cooling periods. This has led some to conclude that if global temperatures changed naturally in the past, long before SUVs and plasma TVs, nature must be the cause of current global warming. This conclusion is the opposite of what the peer-reviewed science has found.

Our climate is governed by the following principle: when you add more heat to our climate, global temperatures rise. Conversely, when the climate loses heat, temperatures fall. Say the planet is in positive energy imbalance. More energy is coming in than radiating back out to space. This is known as radiative forcing, the change in net energy flow at the top of the atmosphere. When the Earth experiences positive radiative forcing, our climate accumulates heat and global temperature rises (not monotonically, of course, internal variability will add noise to the signal).

How much does temperature change for a given radiative forcing? This is determined by the planet's climate sensitivity. The more sensitive our climate, the greater the change in temperature. The most common way of describing climate sensitivity is the change in global temperature if atmospheric CO2 is doubled. What does this mean? The amount of energy absorbed by CO2 can be calculated using line-by-line radiative transfer codes. These results have been experimentally confirmed by satellite and surface measurements. The radiative forcing from a doubling of CO2 is 3.7 Watts per square metre (W/m2) (IPCC AR4 Section 2.3.1).

So when we talk about climate sensitivity to doubled CO2, we're talking about the change in global temperatures from a radiative forcing of 3.7 Wm-2. This forcing doesn't necessarily have to come from CO2. It can come from any factor that causes an energy imbalance.

How much does it warm if CO2 is doubled? If we lived in a climate with no feedbacks, global temperatures would rise 1.2°C (Lorius 1990). However, our climate has feedbacks, both positive and negative. The strongest positive feedback is water vapour. As temperature rises, so too does the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. However, water vapour is a greenhouse gas which causes more warming which leads to more water vapour and so on. There are also negative feedbacks - more water vapour causes more clouds which can have both a cooling and warming effect.

What is the net feedback? Climate sensitivity can be calculated from empirical observations. One needs to find a period where we have temperature records and measurements of the various forcings that drove the climate change. Once you have the change in temperature and radiative forcing, climate sensitivity can be calculated. Figure 1 shows a summary of the peer-reviewed studies that have determined climate sensitivity from past periods (Knutti & Hegerl 2008).

Figure 1: Distributions and ranges for climate sensitivity from different lines of evidence. The circle indicates the most likely value. The thick coloured bars indicate likely value (more than 66% probability). The thin coloured bars indicate most likely values (more than 90% probability). Dashed lines indicate no robust constraint on an upper bound. The IPCC likely range (2 to 4.5°C) and most likely value (3°C) are indicated by the vertical grey bar and black line, respectively.

There have been many estimates of climate sensitivity based on the instrumental record (the past 150 years). Several studies used the observed surface and ocean warming over the twentieth century and an estimate of the radiative forcing. A variety of methods have been employed - simple or intermediate-complexity models, statistical models or energy balance calculations. Satellite data for the radiation budget have also been analyzed to infer climate sensitivity.

Some recent analyses used the well-observed forcing and response to major volcanic eruptions during the twentieth century. A few studies examined palaeoclimate reconstructions from the past millennium or the period around 12,000 years ago when the planet came out of a global ice age (Last Glacial Maximum).

What can we conclude from this? We have a number of independent studies covering a range of periods, studying different aspects of climate and employing various methods of analysis. They all yield a broadly consistent range of climate sensitivity with a most likely value of 3°C for a doubling of CO2.

The combined evidence indicates that the net feedback to radiative forcing is significantly positive. There is no credible line of evidence that yields very high or very low climate sensitivity as a best estimate.

CO2 has caused an accumulation of heat in our climate. The radiative forcing from CO2 is known with high understanding and confirmed by empirical observations. The climate response to this heat build-up is determined by climate sensitivity.

Ironically, when skeptics cite past climate change, they're in fact invoking evidence for strong climate sensitivity and net positive feedback. Higher climate sensitivity means a larger climate response to CO2 forcing. Past climate change actually provides evidence that humans can affect climate now.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Unless indicated otherwise, all internet links accessed at time of writing. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Removal of Royal veto and a fishy smell from Fowey

There is worried comment doing the rounds of the internet as people have had their attention drawn to the wording of the proposed House of Lords Bill 15:

“A BILL TO Amend the Sovereign Grant Act 2011; to amend the succession to the title of the Duke of Cornwall; to re-distribute the Duchy of Cornwall’s estate; and to remove the requirement for a Parliament to obtain Queen’s or Prince’s consent to consideration of bills passing through Parliament.”[1]
The last part would remove Royal veto over a Bill’s progress rather than Royal Assent, but it looks like a further power grab by Parliament of the kind that Albert Burgess outlined in his lucid historical conspectus this morning[2].

It’s quite an assault on the Prince of Wales. Who’s behind it, and why?
The Bill is sponsored by Lord Berkeley, a hereditary Baron who was returned to the Lords as a Life Peer after the House was reformed under New Labour. He was a Labour Whip and spokesperson for Transport prior to the 1997 General Election.[3]

He is well-qualified to speak on transportation. Here are some of his offices mentioned in the House of Lords’ interests:
Chairman, Rail Freight Group
Board Member, European Rail Freight Association
President, Aviation Environment Federation
President, United Kingdom Marine Pilots Association
President, Road Danger Reduction Forum
Vice President, Cycling Touring Club

Road, rail, air, sea… quite a list. The marine interest goes a little bit further:

Trustee, Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) (sustainability of the marine ecosystem)

and…

Harbour Commissioner, Fowey Harbour Authority, Cornwall

That last is interesting. Lord Berkeley lives in Polruan (see note 3), near the mouth of the river Fowey. He will not be far from various interests of the Prince of Wales, who as Duke of Cornwall

“owns freehold about three-fifths of the Cornish foreshore and the 'fundus', or bed, of navigable rivers and has right of wreck on all ships wrecked on Cornish shores, including those afloat offshore.”[4]


Land and shore holdings of the Duchy of Cornwall


This land ownership also used to include Fowey Harbour, but “the Harbour Commissioners own the fundus and foreshore purchasing from the Duchy of Cornwall in 1933.”[5]

So Fowey is not directly beholden to the Prince and it would seem that there is little opportunity for a direct conflict of interests. 
But the maritime angle has a little more to it than that. In 2011, Lord Berkeley launched another Bill, the Marine Navigation Bill[6], which aimed to make or amend provisions for pilots, lighthouses and harbour authorities. This Bill would have affected the Prince’s interests and so James Whittle, Clerk to the Lords, wrote to Lord Berkeley on 6 September 2011[7] to alert him to the need to approach Clarence House for the Prince’s consent. The Bill never made it.

In the Spring of 2013, the noble Lord called for a “radical overhaul” of the Duchy and said “he wanted to see all money generated by the estate go towards Cornish people and not the heir to the throne,”[8] so setting the common man against the Crown in a manner reminiscent of what Albert Burgess has told us of Asquith’s tour round Britain. It’s been some time since a socialist was so keen to see the people have control over their own money.
Could it be that there is a short-sighted and destructive element of personal pique in this new, constitutionally significant initiative?


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