Saturday, August 30, 2008

Financial Apocalypse Now

Cash, Gold, and Swiss gov't bonds.

In 7 years, it could very well be that a Krugerrand buys a decent house!

... says an anonymous commentator on Nourishing Obscurity, after listing multiple dire threats to our wealth and security. Any other expert care to give a view - and put his/her name to it?

Changes in foreign holdings of US Treasury Securities, June 2007 - June 2008

US mortgage GSEs: Bank of China is taking cover

The Chinese have been reducing their investment in Freddie and Fannie (htp: Alice).

What bankers don't know about banking - or do they?

Those red and blue lines remind me of the song, Me And My Shadow.

This is from Mark Lundeen's 12 August essay on banking and inflation (htp: The Mogambo Guru). And here's another graph from the same:

(Is it my imagination, or does the curve begin in the 60s?)
Should we call the credit crunch the Shawshank Recession?

What I don't know about banking

London Banker reports that US deposit insurance looks compromised. I comment:

In my amateur way, I have suggested that we give up on fractional reserve banking for home lending and simply lend (create) money without any base at all (but with, perhaps, some State budget for how fast they can inflate the money supply). We're nearly there, but the current system is complicated by the expensive mechanics of taking in and returning deposits, and the threat of runs on the banks.

Perhaps deposit takers could be like the old Swiss banks and charge you for holding your cash, while the lending banks rot its value. Any votes for a separation of functions?