Keyboard worrier

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Scrap National Insurance!

The typical employee’s wage slip is something of a con.

Here’s how it works. For earnings between £12,570 and £50,270 p.a. there are deductions of income tax at 20%, employee NIC at 12% but an additional 13.8% NIC is paid by the employer.

If someone on the average salary of c. £33,000 a year gets a raise of £1,000 the worker pays £320 in tax/NIC and the employer another £138. Thus in total it costs the salary department £1,138 to give the worker £680 net.

You would have the same result if you simply paid the worker £1,138 and charged income tax at 40.25%. From this point of view basic rate taxpayers are effectively Higher Rate taxpayers!

Back in 1910 a working class man might earn £50 - £100 per year depending on his level of skill. There was as yet no National Insurance Fund and the threshold for paying income tax was £160. So no tax and no NIC for the ordinary working person!

Once you were on a lot more - £700 a year - marginal income tax was a shilling in the pound i.e. 5%. In 1909 Lloyd George introduced a super-tax for the very wealthy on £5,000+ per annum: this was an extra 2.5%, bringing the total to 7.5% on margin.

It was a different world.

And in many ways a much worse world. Lives were shorter and illness more common - hundreds of thousands suffered from TB, for example. Certain industries were more likely to be hit by cyclical unemployment which would destroy the security of working class families, so that people who had joined friendly societies or taken out life insurance might have to default on their membership and policies. The edge of destitution was always close, with its threat of the workhouse or infirmary.

So let’s bless the memory of the ‘Welsh Wizard’ who in 1911 presented Parliament with a plan for a National Insurance Fund to tackle these miseries. His introductory speech is on Hansard here. The scheme is complex and brilliantly worked-out. We must admire the intellectual quality of a Debating Chamber that could take in the details and ask penetrating questions; do we have such a one now?

The initial actuarial calculations had called for some fifteen years of extra Government funding to cover the cost of admitting older lives to the new plan, after which the State could step back and the scheme would be wholly reliant on the contributions from workers and employers.

The plan was doomed. The Bill became law in 1912 and benefits began to be paid the next year; but in 1914 a Privy Council meeting declared war on Germany.

The surplus funds designed to take care of future obligations were raided by Lloyd George to help pay the enormous costs of the conflict. Inflation doubled by 1918; then there was a slump and a few years later the Great Depression, bringing a level of unemployment for which the Fund had not been designed. Generally the nation’s finances went haywire, so that in 1934 Britain defaulted on her huge wartime loans from the United States.

Then came World War Two, with more borrowings and the forfeiture of much of our gold and overseas business holdings. Yet the postwar Welfare State was established, broke though we were; how infinitely better would our position have been had we stayed out of both global conflicts?

These are the fruits of war.

Nevertheless, for a couple of decades the post-1945 National Insurance Fund rebuilt its surplus and the system moved to pay-as-you-go, funding benefits from current contributions, while maintaining significant reserves. However, expanding welfare programs and an ageing population saw the reserves dwindle to the status of a contingency fund; we are now on ‘money in, money out.’ Pensioners who say ‘we paid in and now we are being short-changed’ have to realise it is not like a Christmas club; they must accept what the State gives them and be thankful.

So let’s dispense with the National Insurance taradiddle and charge a uniform tax of around 40%.

One advantage is that ordinary people would enjoy a much bigger tax break on voluntary pension contributions.

As for State pensioners, let all of them have the full basic State pension, and the Winter Fuel Allowance, and the bus pass and 25% ‘widow’s discount’ on Council Tax and so on. Below a certain level of income they need all of it and let’s not squabble about marginal benefits and who gets what docked and isn’t it unfair. Let them pay the same tax rate as the working people sweating for a living, but adjust the income tax threshold so that they get all the State will give them plus some extra that they have saved for themselves; then, 40% or so above that limit.

It would work out so that for example someone on a total income that is £28,756 into the 40% tax bracket would be repaying the full cost of a basic State Pension which is currently £11,02.40. Someone less wealthy would be paying a proportion, naturally.

It’s the KISS principle: Keep It Simple, Stupid.

Tuesday, September 24, 2024

Dressing Sir Keir

Lord Mandelson is said to be behind the gifted-clothes hoo-ha about Lord Alli, the PM and his wife. Nonsense: this is Hamlet without the Prince.

Casey Michael in the Mail on Sunday says that Tony Blair ‘is offering extensive advice to Sir Keir Starmer behind the scenes.’ Alastair Campbell, too - maybe Ali was behind Starmer’s headline-catching visit to Italy’s Giorgia Meloni ostensibly to learn from the right-winger how to deal with immigration. Mandelson - wasn’t it Blair who mused that maybe Mandy wasn’t as good as his sofa cabinet had thought?

Blair fancies himself as an expert on presentation, though his facial expressions and gestures belong in the am-dram classic ‘The Art Of Coarse Acting.’ When George W Bush was buttering him up to obtain Britain’s support for the illegal invasion of Iraq ‘Yo Blair’ presumed to tell the President of the United States how to comport himself, for example to ‘walk wide’ so as to seem more impressive. Bush played along pro tem; he is more psychologically astute and knows how to stroke a man’s vanity; yet what was on his mind was not Richard Burton but Halliburton.

The right-wing media are playing the clothes thing all wrong. Starmer is not materialistic or sensual. What normal youth would go to a Czech Communist work camp instead of lining up half a dozen quickies in one day on an 18-30 beach holiday as a friend of mine once did?

No, I stick to my armchair analysis: Starmer is high-functioning autistic. Mothers who have sons like this despair of getting their boys to change their clothes because of the associated sensory issues that make the lads want to stick with the familiar. Melinda Gates had to force her nerd husband to abandon dressing like a scruff, otherwise Bill would have carried on with the T-shirts.

These guys live in their heads. This is why they are addicted to making models, if not computer programs then human society. If Starmer were older he’d have watched the revolutionary-leftie 1976 TV series ‘Bill Brand’ (screened in the afternoons because it was too radical for prime time) thinking ‘If not now, when?’

Enter Blair the thespian ‘national treasure’, no longer castable as the juvenile lead but taking on the role of Starmer’s director, managing him as Barrage O’Bomber and co. have managed Biden and will (if Trump can be eliminated) manage the giggly airhead ‘joyous’ Kamala.

Starmer will take stage tips; he doesn’t care, so long as he gets us to curtain down. As to costume, the common people do like a show with high production values, don’t they?

Monday, September 23, 2024

Next to leave UK? Schoolchildren!

The average fees of a British boarding school are £37,000 a year. Adding twenty per cent VAT brings that up to £44,400.

In Portugal the cost would be about 30,000 euro = under £26,000. Children can attend established ‘international schools’ to learn in their own language.

But with the prospect of the Starmer regime lasting for a decade or more, enterprising private schools might consider setting up their own establishments in or near Lisbon, Porto or the Algarve, and transfer their teaching staff there. The expense of moving and rebuilding might be more than covered by the sale of school lands and buildings in the crazily overpriced UK property market.

Nice weather, good food and the opportunity to rub shoulders with the citizenry and become fluent in a foreign language.

And the chance to escape the G*d-awful British National Curriculum.

Regular, cheap short-haul direct flights each way. Assuming there’s any reason to return.

Friday, September 20, 2024

FRIDAY MUSIC: Mark Knopfler, by JD



Some lesser known songs from MK as he explores his musical roots.

Mark Knopfler needs no introduction after a very successful career in popular music wih 'Dire Straits' 'The Notting Hillbillies' and susequently as a solo artist. He was born in Glasgow and from the age of seven he lived with his family on Tyneside. Among his lesser known solo work was an exploration of his musical roots some of which appeared on the 2009 album 'Get Lucky' and a few of those songs are included below.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Knopfler
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Get_Lucky_(Mark_Knopfler_album)

Mark Knopfler - Border Reiver HD - Córdoba 2010

"The Anglo-Scottish Border counties, including Northumberland, were the home to the notorious Border Reivers, the lawless clans of the border valleys, where a lifestyle of raiding and marauding was the only way to survive. The life of the Border Reiver was not necessarily ruled by his allegiance to the English or Scottish Crowns, but more likely by his allegiance to a family surname.”


Mark Knopfler - Before gas & tv

The Trawlerman's Song by Mark Knopfler

Going Home - Royal Scots Dragoon Guards & Mark Knopfler


Mark Knopfler - Piper To The End:

"This song is about Knopfler's uncle Freddie ( mother side : Frederick John Laidler ) who was a piper of the 1st Battalion, Tyneside Scottish, the Black Watch, Royal Highland Regiment. Freddie carried his pipes into action in World War II and was killed with fellow fighters at Ficheux, near Arras in the north of France in May 1940. He was just 20 years old."


Mark Knopfler - Sons Of Scotland

Thursday, September 19, 2024

Yankee Poodle Went To Town...

... but failed to blow up the world - this time.

If you live in the Northern hemisphere and are able to read this, it is because Sir Keir Starmer has still not received permission to bomb the Russian homeland.

According to nuclear arms control expert Scott Ritter, he tried.


How can American presidents be allowed to instruct British PMs - e.g. Blair, Johnson, Sunak, Starmer - in such vital matters?

Western leaderships have been gambling that they can play ‘What’s the time, Mister Wolf?’ indefinitely and the wolf will never turn.

But on last Friday the Thirteenth - although the demonic auspices seemed favourable - it seems that utterly emphatic warnings from Moscow via back channels managed to convince some sane persons with influence in the US Administration that firing long-range missiles into Russia would trigger open war with NATO and that America’s heartland would not be exempted from retaliatory action.

The scenario if the bet goes wrong is the death of perhaps 99 per cent of the five billion people in North America, Europe, Russia, China etc. Not all from blast or radiation but also from mass starvation during a long winter caused by dust flung into the upper atmosphere, robbing vegetation of sunlight.

Time Magazine sketches a sequence of events, one that seems unstoppable once escalation begins:



What person not mad would stake the lives, not only of the armed forces but of each and every citizen in their country, against some not clearly defined material gain - say, oil and gas for a few more decades? The irrationality is so extreme that one wonders whether Sir Keir and other Western warmongers should not be made to submit to psychological assessment.

We have been spared, this time, but must take heed:
So proud and lofty is some sort of sin
Which many take delight and pleasure in
Whose conversation God doth much dislike
And yet He shakes His sword before He strike

Monday, September 16, 2024

We need a referendum on Starmer's 'Change'

Starmer’s government has saddled up for a full Parliamentary session but the question of Labour’s legitimation remains. This is not merely a new administration but one with a comprehensive socialist plan it wishes to implement. The potential impact of ‘Golden’ Brown’s grand strategy on our constitutional arrangements is arguably far greater than the Brexit issue. Labour are pushing it through on the positive assent of 20.2% of the electorate in a dangerously low turnout, and even some of those who did vote Red may be experiencing buyer’s remorse already.

If we had agreed in 2011 to introduce the Alternative Vote (AV) the turnout would likely have been far higher (as it was in the 2016 EU Referendum) and the results could have been startlingly different. Imagine for example if Reform’s 14.3% vote share was boosted by Tories who had switched to the Liberal Democrats as a plausible alternative, plus other Conservatives who had simply abstained in despair.

The disconnect between Westminster and the people is wider than ever. Starmer cannot simply equate his majority in Parliament with the popular will. The freakish General Election result might be enough for a change of train driver in the ordinary way but is not sufficient to authorise a complete change of track and destination.

In 1816 Thomas Jefferson suggested that since the world belongs to the living only, the people should be able to amend or rewrite the constitution under which they are governed, when half those alive at the last one have passed on. Unless we accept the divine right of kings and their appointed Prime Ministers, our legislative body should have the imprimatur of those from whom power originates. Of those who expressed a preference at the ballot box in July, 66.3% must be counted ‘not content.’ There must be a better system for getting general agreement to an historic decision.

Parliament itself shows us a way when electing a new Speaker of the House of Commons. A series of ballots is held, each time ejecting losers, until one candidate has more than half the votes in the last round. This method takes subsidiary preferences into account and so is a sort of Alternative Vote.

Labour has radical and, so it hopes, irreversible proposals for our system of government. Let them put those ideas to the electorate by a simple nationwide yes or no. If there is more than one such scheme put forward, let us choose and approve by AV.

The alternative is to press on regardless, blocking the escape valve in the pressure cooker with police action, propaganda and media collusion while turning up the heat. When Elon Musk said civil war in the UK is inevitable he may have been thinking about more than riotous, so-called ‘right wing’ demonstrations against unlimited migration.

We need a constitutional referendum.

……………………………..
Crossposted from Bruges Group blog.

Saturday, September 14, 2024

PMQs in a nutshell, 11 September 2024

Welcome to Sir Keir’s second Question Time of the current session. The in-house video is here (start at 12:01) and the Hansard transcript here. Quentin Letts’ Parliamentary sketch in the Daily Mail noted a despondent air on the Government benches.

The PM welcomed the new statue of the late Queen Elizabeth and wished the Princess of Wales well as she completes her treatment. He heralded that afternoon’s debate introducing the Renter’s Rights Bill and was scheduled to meet President Biden in Washington to discuss foreign policy.

Torsten Bell (L) spoke of the plight of low paid and zero hours workers but was cut short by the Speaker for failing to ask a question. The PM replied that Labour was commtted to economic growth and would ‘deliver for working people.’

Rishi Sunak (C, Opposition Leader) asked the PM whether he would publish the impact assessment of cancelling the Winter Fuel Payment (WFP) for 10 million pensioners. Sir Keir referred once again to the ‘£22 billion black hole’ left by the outgoing Conservative administration; pensioners would benefit from ‘ramping up’ pension credit, linking housing benefit to it and receiving pension increases via the ‘triple lock.’ Mr Sunak spoke of the Conservatives’ record on pension benefits and noted that the present Chancellor had said she would prefer it if the WFP policy did not raise any money. The PM repeated the ‘£22 billion black hole’ phrase twice more and quoted shadow ministers saying the WFP was not needed by some and should be means-tested. Mr Sunak reminded the PM of Labour’s previous estimate that withdrawing the WFP would lead to 3,850 deaths; did Labour’s latest impact assessment give higher or lower figures? The PM replied that his Government aimed to ‘stabilise the economy’ and referred again to the ‘triple lock.’ Mr Sunak noted the PM’s refusal to publish the impact assessment.

Mr Sunak then asked whether bearing in mind ‘increasing global volatility’ the PM would ‘be adopting the National Farmers Union’s recent proposal to enshrine a national food security target in law?’ Would the PM consider making the process of assessing farmland quality independent, rather than leaving it to developers who may despoil the countryside with alternative uses such as solar panels? The PM again countered with the previous government’s alleged ‘mess’ and neglect of rural issues. Mr Sunak spoke of Wales’ ‘top-down eco-targets’ that ‘hammered farmers’; would the PM assure English farmers that he would rule out such targets? The PM replied that Labour would ‘work with farmers’ across the UK to ‘support’ them; and ended with a list of other ways in which Labour was ‘building a better country for the future.’

Amanda Martin (L) asked about affordable housing in Portsmouth. Would infrastructure and community consultation be considered? The PM limited himself to restating Labour’s commitment to affordable housing and its target of building 1.5 million new houses.

Ed Davey (LD Leader) asked the PM to guarantee that every cancer patient could start treatment within 62 days. Sir Keir referred to Lord Darzi’s upcoming report on previous Conservative failure in this area and said the timeline mattered; Labour were already putting on more scanners and technology to speed up diagnosis.

Mr Davey said that LibDems had voted against the withdrawal of the Winter Fuel Payment. Would the PM reverse previous Conservative tax cuts for banks instead? Sir Keir said he would not anticipate the Budget but repeated the phrase ‘£22 billion black hole’ and Labour’s plan to make sure everyone was better off.

Patrick Hurley (L) reminded the House of the tragic killings of little girls in Southport and asked the PM to recommit to support for the town and those grieving and affected. The PM expressed his sympathy and support but also referred to ‘far-right thugs’ who had thrown things at police in London.

Nigel Farage (Reform) referred to the previous day’s early release of career criminals to make space in prison for reckless commenters on social media. Did the PM understand public anger at ‘two-tier policing and a two-tier justice system?’ Sir Keir said that the releases were necessary ‘because the last Government broke the prison system’ and had ignored warnings of the crisis.

Rachel Hopkins (L) asked the PM to explain Labour’s railway plan to deliver improvements to rail infrastructure. Sir Keir complied, saying that ‘Great British Railways will unite track and train under a single leadership. That means closer collaboration across the industry and faster, more effective decisions on critical infrastructure.’

Tessa Munt (LD) said the Conservatives had underspent the farming budget by £100 million. Would Labour do the same? She said the LibDem manifesto proposed an increase and to ‘speed up the roll-out of the new environmental land management schemes, and support profitable, sustainable and nature-friendly farming.’ The PM said the issue was important and while not pre-empting the Budget agreed to ‘protect farmers from being undercut in trade deals, make the supply chain work more fairly, and prevent shock rises in bills by switching to GB Energy.’

Luke Murphy (L) asked about overcharging and lack of maintenance by leasehold agents. Sir Keir said Labour would ‘bring the feudal leasehold system to an end’ and increase leaseholders’ rights.

Brendan O’Hara (SNP) asked about the bombing of civilian areas in Gaza and said the Government’s decision to exempt F-35 components from the arms licence suspension re Israel was against international law. Sir Keir denied this and said the priority now was a ceasefire to allow hostage release and aid delivery, and to progress towards a two-state solution.

Graeme Downie (L) asked for the Strategic Defence and Security Review team to visit defence supply sites like Rosyth and ‘ensure that the SDSR supports Britain’s security and local economies.’ The PM agreed that defence mattered in terms of security and also economic growth. The consultation would be wide and include the ‘devolved nations.’ He undertook to have the relevant Minister meet Mr Downie to discuss his local issues.

Dr Neil Hudson (C) asked the PM to confirm the previous government’s commitment to re/building medical facilities in Harlow and Epping. Sir Keir repeated what he had said on another occasion about the Conservatives’ failure to build ‘40 new hospitals’ and agreed to ‘review what we can do and put it on a sustainable, deliverable basis.’

Anneliese Midgley (L) asked Sir Keir to support the introduction of ‘Olivia’s Law,’ a measure to allow serious offenders to be forced to attend sentencing hearings in person. The PM reiterated the Government’s commitment, which was in the King’s Speech.

Blake Stephenson (C) asked Sir Keir how he would choose between heating or eating were he a pensioner on £11,350 p.a. without Winter Fuel Payment. The PM yet again cited the ‘£22 billion black hole’ and Labour’s commitment to ‘triple lock’ pension increases which would more than make up for the loss of WFP. He said the last Conservative government had lost control of inflation and fuel prices, and that Labour would stabilise the economy to prevent a repeat.

Mark Ferguson (L) asked the PM for help to authorise the use of DFMO, a drug to combat neuroblastoma, currently suffered by a child in Mr Ferguson’s constituency. Sir Keir said Labour would see that the manufacturer’s licence application was reviewed as fast as possible, and would ensure that the Health Minister would meet the child’s parents as requested.

Dame Harriett Baldwin (C) said Sir Keir’s version of socialism was to drive the wealthy from the country while allowing elderly pensioners to suffer in cold homes. Would he reverse his decision re the Winter Fuel Allowance? The PM said his choice was to ‘stabilise the economy’ and ‘when a Government lose[s] control of the economy, it is working people who pay the price.’

Paulette Hamilton (L) raised the issue of pancreatic cancer which kills quickly and asked the PM to ‘commit to reviewing the long-term cancer strategy so that we can improve diagnosis and treatment rates in this country.’ Sir Keir agreed and would say more when he dealt with Lord Darzi’s report the next day,

Louie French (C) asked the PM to ‘rule out scrapping concessionary travel fares and council tax discounts’ for pensioners. Sir Keir said he refused to pre-empt the Budget.

Kirith Entwistle (L) conveyed the thanks of the Bolton Council of Mosques for the PM’s support during the summer riots. Did he agree on ‘the importance of supporting inter-faith and community groups?’ Sir Keir concurred and thanked the police for how they dealth with the pubic disorder.

Ann Davies (Plaid Cymru) thanked the Speaker in Welsh and asked the PM why Labour were opposing the Welsh Government’s desire for new power lines to be placed underground. Sir Keir reiterated the policy to transition to renewable energy but said it had to be done in a cost-effective way.

Jessica Morden (L) asked how the Government were safeguarding jobs and securing the future of steelmaking communities in Wales in the drive towards deindustrialisation. Sir Keir acknowledged the importance of British steelmaking and related jobs and communities; the Business Secretary would provide an update to the House that afternoon.

Olly Glover (LD) asked whether the PM supported investment in railways, and whether he would meet Mr Glover to hear the case for a new railway station at Grove and Wantage. Sir Keir said that Great British Railways would work to ensure that rail investment meets the needs of communities; he would ensure that the relevant Minister would meet Mr Glover to discuss the issues in his constituency.

Crossposted from Wolves of Westminster