As cases of Covid-19 approach six
figures globally and have passed the half-century in the UK, our government has
released its Action Plan https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-action-plan
(3 March). Before we look at it, let’s consider some other points.
We’ve been relatively lucky here
and in the US. The virus reached us towards the end of the winter flu season
and thanks to a reasonably cleanly populace and alert medics ready to jump on
new cases and take the more serious to specialist facilities, the situation has
the appearance of being so well under control that wiseacres are telling us
we’ve been over-reacting https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/03/coronavirus_stay_calm_and_avoid_the_hype.html
and pass the port, old boy.
However, we could be in a Phoney
War period. It seems that although Covid-19 is fatal to a small percentage, the
potential scale of deaths relates more to the number of possible infections and
nobody has an immunity. It’s not just a Chinese illness: early on, a Chinese
study was released saying that East Asians might be more liable to contract the
disease because of a genetic difference in their lung cells; yet as of 4 March
16:27 GMT https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
, in Iran 92/2,922 have died, in Italy 75/2,502 – a death-to-case ratio of
three per cent in each case.
This coronavirus has now hit Africa,
South America and the Middle East, where health screening and treatment systems
are not universally well-developed. A coronavirus simulation exercise conducted
a few months before the real outbreak concluded that on average, the world’s
nations were only forty per cent prepared to deal with a pandemic https://hub.jhu.edu/2019/11/06/event-201-health-security/?fbclid=IwAR36gEPN_cBanQvewvO19pWHifTMP-aZ5PWea8B2GpjygFe2LVc1YTANuMY
. ‘WuFlu’ could go on to brew away among the billions in the southern
hemisphere, where autumn is on its way. There is also the Islamic community,
for whom pilgrimage to Mecca is one of the Five Pillars of religious duty,
incurring a ‘super-spreader’ risk as noted by Shahul H Ebrahim and Ziad A
Memish in the Lancet https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30466-9/fulltext
(27 February). Moreover, there are many other holy sites visited by millions of
pilgrims, including internally within Iran, so flight restrictions do not
completely solve the problem.
A great global reservoir could be
building up, and we shall know what we’re facing when Britain comes again to
seasonal flu time. Paradoxically, the fact that for many the illness will be
mild, even unnoticed, makes the situation worse because those people will
likely go about as normal and stand to infect others. We should use our Phoney
War period to plan and rearm.
So we shall. Tony Blair was fond
of the phrase ‘joined-up government’, although in practice, joined-up writing
looked like a bit of a stretch, except where systemic socio-economic and
constitutional vandalism were concerned. Johnson’s first big test has turned
out to be, not Brexit but disease. I don’t know whether it’s quite fair to
suggest that Etonians generally have a penchant for delegation to ‘little men
who do that sort of thing’ but BoJo’s appointee Dominic Cummings has arrived
just in time to try out his own theories in respect of the effective management
of public affairs, and I assume this ‘Coronavirus: action plan’ document has
his fingerprints on it.
The challenge is to strike a
balance between showing the government is prepared, and scaring us. It’s not so
much a death-puppet that waggles at us, but the prospect of overburdened
hospitals and health services, and significant disruption to daily life.
At present, for every person who
dies in hospital (thankfully, nobody in Britain, yet) there are several more in
intensive care, plus further numbers within hospitals and even more at home.
The team has thought of this (point 2.7) and estimates that at its peak the
disease may cause up to a fifth of workers to be absent from duty. This has
been repeated in the news media and BoJo has undertaken to allow Statutory Sick
Pay to be paid from the first day of illness. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-news-boris-johnson-statutory-sick-pay-self-isolation-a9374696.html
The general treatment strategy
(2.9) is fourfold: Self isolation, managing symptoms, support for patients with
complications, but most people to manage at home.
The wider strategy (3.7) is to
Contain, Delay (to allow time for more clement weather, for research and the
development of a vaccine – but paragraph 4.25 notes the need to weigh the
‘social costs’ of implementing actions), Mitigate the consequences, and
continue with Research. À propos the last, the document notes (4.32) King’s
College London’s work on ‘Emergency Preparedness and Response’ and (4.33)
Imperial College’s unit developing Modelling Methodology.
The plan also reminds us of the
complexities of devolved government, so HMG is taking that into consideration.
Let’s hope that TV interviewers think twice before macho, pen-twiddling ragging
of central government ministers about matters for which regional government is
responsible https://conservativewoman.co.uk/narky-newman-plumbs-new-depths/
.
A point that is both reassuring and
worrying is in (4.8): ‘new powers for medical professionals, public health
professionals and the police to allow them to detain and direct individuals in
quarantined areas at risk or suspected of having the virus.’ Let us hope the
Opposition will keep a beady eye on the potential for abuse of such powers, and
insist on periodic reviews and sunset clauses.
The paper reminds us that Dad can’t
do it all for us, and the advice is worth quoting in full:
4.34 Everyone can help
support the UK’s response by:
• following public health
authorities’ advice, for example on hand washing
• reducing the impact and
spread of misinformation by relying on information from trusted sources, such
as that on www.nhs.uk/ , www.nhsinform.scot, www.publichealth.hscni.net , https://gov.wales/coronavirus-covid-19
and www.gov.uk/
• checking and following
the latest FCO travel advice when travelling and planning to travel
• ensuring you and your
family’s vaccinations are up to date as this will help reduce the pressure on
the NHS/HSCNI through reducing vaccine-preventable diseases
• checking on elderly or
vulnerable family, friends and neighbours
• using NHS 111 (or NHS 24
in Scotland or NHS Direct Wales) (including online, where possible), pharmacies
and GPs responsibly, and go to the hospital only when you really need to. This
is further explained on the NHS website - www.nhs.uk/using-the-nhs/nhs-services/urgent-and-emergencycare/when-to-go-to-ae/
and http://www.choosewellwales.org.uk/home
• being understanding of
the pressures the health and social care systems may be under, and receptive to
changes that may be needed to the provision of care to you and your family.
• accepting that the
advice for managing COVID-19 for most people will be self-isolation at home and
simple over the counter medicines
• checking for new advice
as the situation changes.
So far, so good – it feels as
though intelligent management is in charge. ‘Keep calm, and carry on.’
