Allow me to introduce myself. New blogger on Broad Oak. Name's Paul.
My first ten years in Stretford, Manchester, by definition makes me a city boy I guess. My middle class conservative parents preached the conventional line of good education to get a good job, to get a good wage to get a nice house, to get a beautiful wife, to have some kids, etc. So how come I end up in a rainforest in Australia?
This is one of 3 dams on my property of 156 acres. I have managed to put up with this place for nearly 40 years now.
How I was corrupted from the conventional, the straight and narrow, began at school when I failed the now defunct 11+ exam and thrown onto the academic scrapheap. I was sent to a 'secondary' school 75 years old, with an annual intake of 500 kids. In that time 1 student had progressed to university. I knew the system was wrong and unfair. I did manage to pass enough exams to get to university with extraordinary help from the headmaster who taught me maths in his tiny office.
At university I was revolting. Sorry, I mean I was revolutionary. I joined the peace society, embraced the hippy thing which was new at that time and went barefoot with bell-bottomed trousers with bells. Yes, a real wannabe. The naturals didn't have to work that hard. Somehow I got an honours degree. Then hit the hippy trail through Asia for 5 years with an incredibly small amount of money, but learned there were millions of people who would say I was rich. I came to Australia to work and replenish my depleted purse. I didn't imagine how the vastness of the landscape and the welcome solitude it affords would permeate my being.
I left behind thoughts of career, any desire to achieve 'success', any need to accumulate money, and those ridiculous bell-bottomed trousers with bells.
I did have a family and raise kids, and I guess that will always be a constant in the changing fads of lifestyle. I have always paid my way, though often barely, and take pride that I have always stayed out of debt.
I left England because it is too crowded. It is too cold. So many wonderful things like the pubs and the museums, the friendly and stoical people, the humour and the eccentrics, but just too crowded.
All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy.
Friday, October 18, 2013
Thursday, October 17, 2013
Really simple climate change
My background is chemistry, one of the most experimental
sciences. No doubt that’s why I look at the empirical evidence when it comes to
claims made by other sciences.
Unfortunately it seems to me that far too many pundits, both
amateur and professional, rely on arguments from authority instead of empirical
evidence when comes to climate change.
Of course climate experiments have an inevitable tendency towards
ambiguity because climate is not a great subject for experimental science in
that none of the variables can be controlled.
Yet to my mind, this is still where the climate debate
should begin – experimental design. If scientists make claims about a causal
link between some climate parameter and global temperatures then we should
surely demand a repeatable experiment to support those claims.
Yet how do we design a controlled empirical trial of climate change theories when we can’t control any of the variables?
A really simple
approach
Suppose we confine ourselves to inventing a simple trial of
global temperature prediction which may be applied to any climate theory.
For example, we could say that global temperature predictions
must be accurate over a period of thirty years – at the moment that would be from
1983 to 2013. I suggest thirty years because the climate appears to be crudely
cyclical and some of the cycles may be long. Even thirty years is much too short,
but it will do for falsification if not verification.
Therefore, according to this really simple test:-
Anyone who in 1983 predicted a pattern of global
temperatures which in 2013 has turned out to be correct, then their theory passes
our test. Whatever theory they used.
Evidence might be a paper published in 1983 or earlier, or maybe even a
newspaper article.
As far as I know that’s nobody.
No matter – we can easily shift the test period by five
years. So anyone who in 1988 predicted a pattern of global temperatures which
in 2018 turns out to be correct, then their theory passes our test. Whatever theory they used.
As far as I know that’s nobody again – no need to wait until
2018.
And so on and so on. In my view we don’t set the bar
anywhere near high enough to assess the performance of climate theories. Yet demanding
real world performance is no different from checking the fuel consumption
claims of car manufacturers.
As with all things climate-related there are caveats, but
one attraction of such a robustly empirical approach is that anyone may take
personal ownership of their stance on climate change. There is no need to be
browbeaten on this issue – it doesn’t require scientific qualifications or even
expertise. Do you need engineering expertise to measure the fuel consumption of
your car?
We turn around the usual relationships with climate
scientists with: don’t tell me – show me.
We also create a more level playing field for alternative climate theories
and that is surely the most interesting aspect of raising the bar.
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
Immigration and inequality
Raedwald put up a piece today on the financial costs of inadequately controlled immigration under New Labour. This has been brought into national debate by statistics on unemployment among immigrants and so on. I looked around and here is my reply:
Raedwald, what you say seems intuitively right but the stats say otherwise. With the odd hiccup, both GDP and GDP-per-capita increased up to the 2008 financial collapse, also the Gini index has reduced slightly since (the story seems to be that in a poorer economy there is more equality, as it was here in the 1970s). GDP has gone down because of the b----y banks, and so has fixed capital formation. Seems the financial sector is more to blame than immigration from those points of view.
Also we have to remember that our national enthusiasm for responsibility-free intercourse has led to the butchering of millions of unborn children since 1967 (latterly female-child-focused, it seems), plus declining fertility because of contraception. The foreign workers are, to some extent, filling a demographic gap created by sterile, murderous British selfishness.
Up to the GFC there is a pattern of increasing income inequality, and the higher up the scale the wider the divergence. This is to be expected because those who have more disposable income will invest more and so increase their income and wealth further. However, median wages in the UK have not stalled as in the USA, where middle earners' real wage rates have stood still since the 1970s. This may be because our tax and benefit system redistributes more downwards than in America.
Immigration may create additional strain in (e.g.) the education system, though many immigrants value education highly and push their children to learn and aim high. They will become our doctors and lawyers.
The real national crisis is in the drift from manufacturing to the service sector, and Sir James Goldsmith warned what would happen if GATT went through. We cannot compete in a global economy, and though there are some success stories (e.g. Land Rover here in the Midlands), watch out what happens when the Chinese have learned everything from us that they need to know.
The Asians I know dislike the weirdy-beardies as much as the rest of us. What we have in the Brit Taliban element is what we had to beat off in the 17th century, i.e. Puritans.
Wish I had time to show the graphs etc but I have a job to go to tomorrow.
Fraternally,
Sackerson
All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Unless indicated otherwise, all internet links accessed at time of writing. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.
Raedwald, what you say seems intuitively right but the stats say otherwise. With the odd hiccup, both GDP and GDP-per-capita increased up to the 2008 financial collapse, also the Gini index has reduced slightly since (the story seems to be that in a poorer economy there is more equality, as it was here in the 1970s). GDP has gone down because of the b----y banks, and so has fixed capital formation. Seems the financial sector is more to blame than immigration from those points of view.
Also we have to remember that our national enthusiasm for responsibility-free intercourse has led to the butchering of millions of unborn children since 1967 (latterly female-child-focused, it seems), plus declining fertility because of contraception. The foreign workers are, to some extent, filling a demographic gap created by sterile, murderous British selfishness.
Up to the GFC there is a pattern of increasing income inequality, and the higher up the scale the wider the divergence. This is to be expected because those who have more disposable income will invest more and so increase their income and wealth further. However, median wages in the UK have not stalled as in the USA, where middle earners' real wage rates have stood still since the 1970s. This may be because our tax and benefit system redistributes more downwards than in America.
Immigration may create additional strain in (e.g.) the education system, though many immigrants value education highly and push their children to learn and aim high. They will become our doctors and lawyers.
The real national crisis is in the drift from manufacturing to the service sector, and Sir James Goldsmith warned what would happen if GATT went through. We cannot compete in a global economy, and though there are some success stories (e.g. Land Rover here in the Midlands), watch out what happens when the Chinese have learned everything from us that they need to know.
The Asians I know dislike the weirdy-beardies as much as the rest of us. What we have in the Brit Taliban element is what we had to beat off in the 17th century, i.e. Puritans.
Wish I had time to show the graphs etc but I have a job to go to tomorrow.
Fraternally,
Sackerson
All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Unless indicated otherwise, all internet links accessed at time of writing. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.
Reporting Heath's Treason (3)
In this instalment, Albert Burgess has something of a gloat at the expense of several police officers who had refused to progress his complaints of government-level treason in relation to joining the EEC in the 1970s. As with Private Eye's "Curse of Gnome", they have since met with professional misfortune. He assures me that the personal details are correct and in the public domain.
The campaign has widened to include more recent dealings with the EU - e.g. Maastricht - and other (in Albert's view) treasonable attempts to alter the British Constitution, such as Lord Berkeley's bill (covered on Broad Oak Magazine last month: "Removal of Royal veto and a fishy smell from Fowey", 17 September 2013).
Referring to the list of complaints below, Albert explains: "Number 4 is where Jack wrote to the police telling them [that] by recording the treason allegations and prosecuting ministers they would be helping themselves over the cut backs. The other allegations up to 12 are concerning allegations against Major, Hurd and Maude over the treason at Maastricht, and Blair, Cameron and Clegg over the changes to the House of Lords. 13 concerns a bill going through Parliament which removes from the Queen the Royal Assent and [proposes] the theft of the Duchy of Cornwall from Prince Charles".
I have said to him, "Re 4: doesn't Jack's suggestion go against the bit [in the police officer's oath] about "without favour, fear, malice or ill will"? I have also commented in some detail on the English Constitution Group's aims document, which if it stands will condemn the group to remain tiny and tarnished with allegations of xenophobia, bigotry etc. This would be a shame, as the core concerns about Common Law and the British Constitution seem to me entirely valid. The document is under review.
As I have said before, the prospects of these complaints actually resulting in court cases seem slim to me, since I suspect the Attorney General would declare prosecution not to be in the public interest; but the attempts underscore the real importance of the issues: freedom, democracy and the rule of law.
Police Crime Numbers for Reported Treason
As of 2 August 2013
1..
2. Bedfordshire Police
3.
5.
6. Dyfed Powys Police
8.
9.
Leicestershire Police
10. Wiltshire Police
Katie Waterman, Senior Policy Advisor, Strategy and Policy Directorate in the CPS.
11. West
The campaign has widened to include more recent dealings with the EU - e.g. Maastricht - and other (in Albert's view) treasonable attempts to alter the British Constitution, such as Lord Berkeley's bill (covered on Broad Oak Magazine last month: "Removal of Royal veto and a fishy smell from Fowey", 17 September 2013).
Referring to the list of complaints below, Albert explains: "Number 4 is where Jack wrote to the police telling them [that] by recording the treason allegations and prosecuting ministers they would be helping themselves over the cut backs. The other allegations up to 12 are concerning allegations against Major, Hurd and Maude over the treason at Maastricht, and Blair, Cameron and Clegg over the changes to the House of Lords. 13 concerns a bill going through Parliament which removes from the Queen the Royal Assent and [proposes] the theft of the Duchy of Cornwall from Prince Charles".
I have said to him, "Re 4: doesn't Jack's suggestion go against the bit [in the police officer's oath] about "without favour, fear, malice or ill will"? I have also commented in some detail on the English Constitution Group's aims document, which if it stands will condemn the group to remain tiny and tarnished with allegations of xenophobia, bigotry etc. This would be a shame, as the core concerns about Common Law and the British Constitution seem to me entirely valid. The document is under review.
As I have said before, the prospects of these complaints actually resulting in court cases seem slim to me, since I suspect the Attorney General would declare prosecution not to be in the public interest; but the attempts underscore the real importance of the issues: freedom, democracy and the rule of law.
After DCI Howard and his skipper had left, I wrote to Sarah
Thornton the Chief Constable to ask her why her force would not apply the law.
I received a reply from a DCS Tighe basically telling me to go away; this I
declined to do.
I then wrote to Assistant Commissioner John Yates at
Scotland Yard and submitted allegations against Superintendent Trotman, DCI
Howard, DCS Tighe, and CC Sarah Thornton for individually neglect of duty and
Misprision of Treason at Common Law, and collectively for Compounding Treason at
Common Law.
AC Yates declined to investigate so I wrote to his boss Sir
Paul Stephenson who also refused to move. But wait, it gets better; I have long
said God is an Englishman and that God and I are mates.
The first thing to happen was Superintendent Trotman, now
promoted to Chief Superintendent, was arrested by his own force and charged
with arson and insurance fraud. Mr Trotman was reported as having an affair
with a Barrister’s wife and it was alleged he set fire to his own car near her
house, and when the boys in blue arrived and asked if he knew who might have done this it was alleged he named the
husband of his girlfriend. He was placed on trial and acquitted. However he was
kept on suspension of other discipline charges and he no longer works for the
police service.
Next to go was AC Yates; the newspapers called it “John
Yates’ boob”. As a senior police officer, honest John Yates travelled the world
at our expense to conferences on terrorism. Because of his rank he travelled
business class, and received double air miles; these air miles are the property
of the Metropolitan Police and are to be used to offset the cost of future
travel. John Yates, who was also having an extramarital arrangement, was asked
by his children to help them with their travel costs, which he did with the Met’s
air miles. He was ordered to repay the money by Sir Paul Stephenson. But what
John Yates had done was to fraudulently misappropriate air miles which equals
tax payers’ money, and therefore it was stealing. So I submitted a formal
allegation of fraudulent misappropriation of air miles. My sources told me John
Yates was going around Scotland Yard complaining that some bastard had reported
him. My allegation was not investigated but eventually John Yates resigned.
Next Sir Paul Stephenson was investigated for taking a £12,000
freebie and resigned shortly afterwards.
So three senior officers who had refused to investigate the
government’s treason had all been forced to resign in disgrace. Like Crocodile
Dundee, “Me and God, we be mates”.
Since then we have changed tack and started on more recent
treasons and now the country’s police forces are starting to take us seriously.
So join us in what is a numbers game. Report treason to your local force. At
least take a look at us - www.englishconstitutiongroup.org
and www.acasefortreason.org.uk -
or email me at albertburgess@hotmail.com.
Police Crime Numbers for Reported Treason
As of 2 August 2013
1..Devon and Cornwall
Police
Treason report recorded DCP/20120904/0473
and referred to the Met, whose
reference is 6006001/12.
2. Bedfordshire Police
URN 184 dated 04/10/2012
3. Cambridge
Police
Cambridge police referred the
report of treason to the Met on 22 March 2012.
Crime Related Incident number CC-22032012-0170 and Met reference is 6006001/12.
4. Cheshire Police
Jack’s comments regarding police reopening past
investigations about politicians’ paedophilia in return for Conservatives’
attack on police pensions, salaries and
conditions. Given CRI 206 22/01/13
5. Durham
Police
Crime
Related Incident number DHM-01112012-0295
on 2 November 2012. (Maastricht Treason evidence).
6. Dyfed Powys Police
Treason report recorded and
referred to the Met on
13 March as number MI/159/11.
Met reference as
yet unknown. Dyfed Powys Police are currently uncommunicative on this.7. Hertfordshire Police
Have logged this under CRI reference number URN356 of 03/10/12 and forwarded to the Met. Also logged under CRI number Hi, Chaps-05062013-0446 and forwarded to Met 12 June 2013.
8. Lancashire
Police
Treason report recorded in August
as number (still to hear back from them) and referred to the Met (whose reference is as
yet unknown). Lancashire Police are currently uncommunicative on this.
9.
Leicestershire Police
Reported by Paul Talbot-Jenkins that Leicestershire Police
told him they’d forwarded his treason allegations to the Met. His email dated 20/02/2013 .
10. Wiltshire Police
Recorded and referred to Home Office National Crime Registrar and the
Crown Prosecution Service on 16
March 2012 as Crime Related Incident (CRI) number 5411010866.
(Case reference numbers requested and as yet still unknown).
Wiltshire police HO and CPS contacts are :-
Steve Bond - Home Office National Crime Registrar, (tel. 0207
0350280) Katie Waterman, Senior Policy Advisor, Strategy and Policy Directorate in the CPS.
11. West Mercia Police
Report of Maastricht Treason forwarded to West Mercia Police
Legal Department on 8
October 2012
12. Warwickshire
Police
Reported by Christopher Roswell to Chief Constable Andy
Parker ref AP/DC/409-13 late July
1013. (Gueterbock Treason - Removal of Queen’s consent and Theft of Duchy
of Cornwall)
13. Wiltshire Police
Reported by post to Wilts Chief Constable 31 August
2013. He told me to report it to the
Met. I replied demanding he pass it to
the Met. 27 September 2013 . He passed it to the Met on 2 Oct under ref. 6548305/13
which went to the local Borough of Westminster. (See paper letter).
_________________________________
All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Unless indicated otherwise, all internet links accessed at time of writing. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.
Monday, October 14, 2013
Bad Science: Michael Eisen and sloppy peer review
The following is reposted with the kind permission of the author, Michael Eisen, a biologist at the University of California, Berkeley. The original appeared on his blog on October 3 with the title "I confess, I wrote the Arsenic DNA paper to expose flaws in peer-review at subscription based journals."
The ease with which substandard research papers slip through the reviewing system and into publication is worrying in its implications, since (for example) we are in the middle of very expensive programs to tackle what many scientists are telling us is the threat of climate change. Clearly more work needs to be done in quality control if we are to retain our confidence in scientific expertise.
In 2011, after having read several really bad papers in the journal Science, I decided to explore just how slipshod their peer-review process is. I knew that their business depends on publishing “sexy” papers. So I created a manuscript that claimed something extraordinary - that I’d discovered a species of bacteria that uses arsenic in its DNA instead of phosphorus. But I made the science so egregiously bad that no competent peer reviewer would accept it. The approach was deeply flawed – there were poor or absent controls in every figure. I used ludicrously elaborate experiments where simple ones would have done. And I failed to include a simple, obvious experiment that would have definitively shown that arsenic was really in the bacteria’s DNA. I then submitted the paper to Science, punching up the impact the work would have on our understanding of extraterrestrials and the origins of life on Earth in the cover letter. And what do you know? They accepted it!
My sting exposed the seedy underside of “subscription-based” scholarly publishing, where some journals routinely lower their standards – in this case by sending the paper to reviewers they knew would be sympathetic - in order to pump up their impact factor and increase subscription revenue. Maybe there are journals out there who do subscription-based publishing right – but my experience should serve as a warning to people thinking about submitting their work to Science and other journals like it.
OK – this isn’t exactly what happened. I didn’t actually write the paper. Far more frighteningly, it was a real paper that contained all of the flaws described above that was actually accepted, and ultimately published, by Science.
I am dredging the arsenic DNA story up again, because today’s Science contains a story by reporter John Bohannon describing a “sting” he conducted into the peer review practices of open access journals. He created a deeply flawed paper about molecules from lichens that inhibit the growth of cancer cells, submitted it to 304 open access journals under assumed names, and recorded what happened. Of the 255 journals that rendered decisions, 157 accepted the paper, most with no discernible sign of having actually carried out peer review. (PLOS ONE, rejected the paper, and was one of the few to flag its ethical flaws).
The story is an interesting exploration of the ways peer review is, and isn’t, implemented in today’s biomedical publishing industry. Sadly, but predictably, Science spins this as a problem with open access. Here is their press release:
But it’s nuts to construe this as a problem unique to open access publishing, if for no other reason than the study, didn’t do the control of submitting the same paper to subscription-based publishers (UPDATE: The author, Bohannon emailed to say that, while his original intention was to look at all journals, practical constraints limited him to OA journals, and that Science played no role in this decision). We obviously don’t know what subscription journals would have done with this paper, but there is every reason to believe that a large number of them would also have accepted the paper (it has many features in common with the arsenic DNA paper afterall). Like OA journals, a lot of subscription-based journals have businesses based on accepting lots of papers with little regard to their importance or even validity. When Elsevier and other big commercial publishers pitch their “big deal”, the main thing they push is the number of papers they have in their collection. And one look at many of their journals shows that they also will accept almost anything.
None of this will stop anti-open access campaigners (hello Scholarly Kitchen) from spinning this as a repudiation for enabling fraud. But the real story is that a fair number of journals who actually carried out peer review still accepted the paper, and the lesson people should take home from this story not that open access is bad, but that peer review is a joke. If a nakedly bogus paper is able to get through journals that actually peer reviewed it, think about how many legitimate, but deeply flawed, papers must also get through. Any scientist can quickly point to dozens of papers – including, and perhaps especially, in high impact journals – that are deeply, deeply flawed – the arsenic DNA story is one of many recent examples. As you probably know there has been a lot of smoke lately about the “reproducibility” problem in biomedical science, in which people have found that a majority of published papers report facts that turn out not to be true. This all adds up to showing that peer review simply doesn’t work.
And the real problem isn’t that some fly-by-night publishers hoping to make a quick buck aren’t even doing peer review (although that is a problem). While some fringe OA publishers are playing a short con, subscription publishers are seasoned grifters playing a long con. They fleece the research community of billions of dollars every year by convincing them of something manifestly false – that their journals and their “peer review” process are an essential part of science, and that we need them to filter out the good science – and the good scientists – from the bad. Like all good grifters playing the long con, they get us to believe they are doing something good for us – something we need. While they pocket our billions, with elegant sleight of hand, then get us to ignore the fact that crappy papers routinely get into high-profile journals simply because they deal with sexy topics.
But unlike the fly by night OA publishers who steal a little bit of money, the subscription publishers’ long con has far more serious consequences. Not only do they traffic in billions rather than thousands of dollars and denying the vast majority of people on Earth access to the findings of publicly funded research, the impact and glamour they sell us to make us willing participants in their grift has serious consequences. Every time they publish because it is sexy, and not because it is right, science is distorted. It distorts research. It distorts funding. And it often distorts public policy.
To suggest – as Science (though not Bohannon) are trying to do – that the problem with scientific publishing is that open access enables internet scamming is like saying that the problem with the international finance system is that it enables Nigerian wire transfer scams.
There are deep problems with science publishing. But the way to fix this is not to curtain open access publishing. It is to fix peer review.
First, and foremost, we need to get past the antiquated idea that the singular act of publication – or publication in a particular journal – should signal for all eternity that a paper is valid, let alone important. Even when people take peer review seriously, it is still just represents the views of 2 or 3 people at a fixed point in time. To invest the judgment of these people with so much meaning is nuts. And its far worse when the process is distorted – as it so often is – by the desire to publish sexy papers, or to publish more papers, or because the wrong reviewers were selected, or because they were just too busy to do a good job. If we had, instead, a system where the review process was transparent and persisted for the useful life of a work (as I’ve written about previously), none of the flaws exposed in Bohannon’s piece would matter.
All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Unless indicated otherwise, all internet links accessed at time of writing. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.
The ease with which substandard research papers slip through the reviewing system and into publication is worrying in its implications, since (for example) we are in the middle of very expensive programs to tackle what many scientists are telling us is the threat of climate change. Clearly more work needs to be done in quality control if we are to retain our confidence in scientific expertise.
In 2011, after having read several really bad papers in the journal Science, I decided to explore just how slipshod their peer-review process is. I knew that their business depends on publishing “sexy” papers. So I created a manuscript that claimed something extraordinary - that I’d discovered a species of bacteria that uses arsenic in its DNA instead of phosphorus. But I made the science so egregiously bad that no competent peer reviewer would accept it. The approach was deeply flawed – there were poor or absent controls in every figure. I used ludicrously elaborate experiments where simple ones would have done. And I failed to include a simple, obvious experiment that would have definitively shown that arsenic was really in the bacteria’s DNA. I then submitted the paper to Science, punching up the impact the work would have on our understanding of extraterrestrials and the origins of life on Earth in the cover letter. And what do you know? They accepted it!
My sting exposed the seedy underside of “subscription-based” scholarly publishing, where some journals routinely lower their standards – in this case by sending the paper to reviewers they knew would be sympathetic - in order to pump up their impact factor and increase subscription revenue. Maybe there are journals out there who do subscription-based publishing right – but my experience should serve as a warning to people thinking about submitting their work to Science and other journals like it.
OK – this isn’t exactly what happened. I didn’t actually write the paper. Far more frighteningly, it was a real paper that contained all of the flaws described above that was actually accepted, and ultimately published, by Science.
I am dredging the arsenic DNA story up again, because today’s Science contains a story by reporter John Bohannon describing a “sting” he conducted into the peer review practices of open access journals. He created a deeply flawed paper about molecules from lichens that inhibit the growth of cancer cells, submitted it to 304 open access journals under assumed names, and recorded what happened. Of the 255 journals that rendered decisions, 157 accepted the paper, most with no discernible sign of having actually carried out peer review. (PLOS ONE, rejected the paper, and was one of the few to flag its ethical flaws).
The story is an interesting exploration of the ways peer review is, and isn’t, implemented in today’s biomedical publishing industry. Sadly, but predictably, Science spins this as a problem with open access. Here is their press release:
Spoof Paper Reveals the “Wild West” of Open-Access PublishingAlthough it comes as no surprise to anyone who is bombarded every day by solicitations from new “American” journals of such-and-such seeking papers and offering editorial positions to anyone with an email account, the formal exposure of hucksters out there looking to make a quick buck off of scientists’ desires to get their work published is valuable. It is unacceptable that there are publishers – several owned by big players in the subscription publishing world – who claim that they are carrying out peer review, and charging for it, but no doing it.
A package of news stories related to this special issue of Science includes a detailed description of a sting operation — orchestrated by contributing news correspondent John Bohannon — that exposes the dark side of open-access publishing. Bohannon explains how he created a spoof scientific report, authored by made-up researchers from institutions that don’t actually exist, and submitted it to 304 peer-reviewed, open-access journals around the world. His hoax paper claimed that a particular molecule slowed the growth of cancer cells, and it was riddled with obvious errors and contradictions. Unfortunately, despite the paper’s flaws, more open-access journals accepted it for publication (157) than rejected it (98). In fact, only 36 of the journals solicited responded with substantive comments that recognized the report’s scientificproblems. (And, according to Bohannon, 16 of those journals eventually accepted the spoof paper despite their negative reviews.) The article reveals a “Wild West” landscape that’s emerging in academic publishing, where journals and their editorial staffs aren’t necessarily who or what they claim to be. With his sting operation, Bohannon exposes some of the unscrupulous journals that are clearly not based in the countries they claim, though he also identifies some journals that seem to be doing open-access right.
But it’s nuts to construe this as a problem unique to open access publishing, if for no other reason than the study, didn’t do the control of submitting the same paper to subscription-based publishers (UPDATE: The author, Bohannon emailed to say that, while his original intention was to look at all journals, practical constraints limited him to OA journals, and that Science played no role in this decision). We obviously don’t know what subscription journals would have done with this paper, but there is every reason to believe that a large number of them would also have accepted the paper (it has many features in common with the arsenic DNA paper afterall). Like OA journals, a lot of subscription-based journals have businesses based on accepting lots of papers with little regard to their importance or even validity. When Elsevier and other big commercial publishers pitch their “big deal”, the main thing they push is the number of papers they have in their collection. And one look at many of their journals shows that they also will accept almost anything.
None of this will stop anti-open access campaigners (hello Scholarly Kitchen) from spinning this as a repudiation for enabling fraud. But the real story is that a fair number of journals who actually carried out peer review still accepted the paper, and the lesson people should take home from this story not that open access is bad, but that peer review is a joke. If a nakedly bogus paper is able to get through journals that actually peer reviewed it, think about how many legitimate, but deeply flawed, papers must also get through. Any scientist can quickly point to dozens of papers – including, and perhaps especially, in high impact journals – that are deeply, deeply flawed – the arsenic DNA story is one of many recent examples. As you probably know there has been a lot of smoke lately about the “reproducibility” problem in biomedical science, in which people have found that a majority of published papers report facts that turn out not to be true. This all adds up to showing that peer review simply doesn’t work.
And the real problem isn’t that some fly-by-night publishers hoping to make a quick buck aren’t even doing peer review (although that is a problem). While some fringe OA publishers are playing a short con, subscription publishers are seasoned grifters playing a long con. They fleece the research community of billions of dollars every year by convincing them of something manifestly false – that their journals and their “peer review” process are an essential part of science, and that we need them to filter out the good science – and the good scientists – from the bad. Like all good grifters playing the long con, they get us to believe they are doing something good for us – something we need. While they pocket our billions, with elegant sleight of hand, then get us to ignore the fact that crappy papers routinely get into high-profile journals simply because they deal with sexy topics.
But unlike the fly by night OA publishers who steal a little bit of money, the subscription publishers’ long con has far more serious consequences. Not only do they traffic in billions rather than thousands of dollars and denying the vast majority of people on Earth access to the findings of publicly funded research, the impact and glamour they sell us to make us willing participants in their grift has serious consequences. Every time they publish because it is sexy, and not because it is right, science is distorted. It distorts research. It distorts funding. And it often distorts public policy.
To suggest – as Science (though not Bohannon) are trying to do – that the problem with scientific publishing is that open access enables internet scamming is like saying that the problem with the international finance system is that it enables Nigerian wire transfer scams.
There are deep problems with science publishing. But the way to fix this is not to curtain open access publishing. It is to fix peer review.
First, and foremost, we need to get past the antiquated idea that the singular act of publication – or publication in a particular journal – should signal for all eternity that a paper is valid, let alone important. Even when people take peer review seriously, it is still just represents the views of 2 or 3 people at a fixed point in time. To invest the judgment of these people with so much meaning is nuts. And its far worse when the process is distorted – as it so often is – by the desire to publish sexy papers, or to publish more papers, or because the wrong reviewers were selected, or because they were just too busy to do a good job. If we had, instead, a system where the review process was transparent and persisted for the useful life of a work (as I’ve written about previously), none of the flaws exposed in Bohannon’s piece would matter.
All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Unless indicated otherwise, all internet links accessed at time of writing. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.
Sunday, October 13, 2013
Why we should switch to Land Value Taxation, by Mark Wadsworth
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania USA - the "Georgist" town is an LVT success story. |
There are plenty of articles explaining why
taxes on the rental value of urban land/location* are the best kind of taxes,
some of them start with the underlying moral arguments – that land is a free
gift of nature or that 95% of location values are created by the whole of
society (“Location, location, location”) – and some skip straight to the positive
outcomes (more efficient use and allocation of land, no deadweight costs).
(* Please note that agriculture measured by
farm gate prices is only one per cent of the UK economy and the rental value of
all farmland, three quarters of the UK by area is only one per cent of the
total rental value of urban/developed land. It is barely worthwhile collecting
taxes on the value of farmland, this is a non-issuer).
Just for a change let’s start in the middle and
look at this from a purely pragmatic point of view and compare and contrast
three basic kinds of tax in terms of these five headings:
i)
assessability
ii)
collectability
iii)
dead
weight costs
iv)
ability to
pay
v)
willingness
to pay
I’ll put numbers on all this in a later post – it is most illuminating if we assume that the government rolled all existing “taxes” (i.e. ignoring duties and rents in the narrower sense) into one single tax which would have to raise about £450 billion a year – this post is just to illustrate the principles.
Poll tax
i) These are easy to assess, it is simply the total tax revenue required divided by the number of adults obliged to pay it.
iv) They score appallingly on ability to pay, by definition, as there is no correlation between the tax and your assets or income.
v) Everybody hates paying tax. If the entire government were funded by a Poll Tax then the top third or quarter of people by assets or income would do well out of the system if everybody pays up, but they would have the same incentive to cheat as anybody else by e.g. claiming to be non-resident.
Further, there is no correlation between the amount you pay and the benefits you receive from society as a whole. S successful stockbroker who takes the subsidised train out to his four-bed detached house in the catchment area of a good state school in Surrey clearly receives far more benefits than an unemployed ex-steel worker in a council flat on Tyneside.
iii) Dead weight costs. These are enormous of
course. These costs refer to the huge but invisible costs of all that economic
activity which simply does not take place because of taxes. It is estimated
that every 1% on VAT costs 100,000 jobs, for example, the impact of the other taxes
in isolation is not quite as dramatic, but it all adds up. So businesses go out
of business (or never get off the ground) and we end up with mass unemployment.
The total deadweight costs are ten or fifteen per cent of GDP, i.e. between
£100 and £200 billion a year (more than enough to eradicate our trade deficit
and to turn it into a comfortable surplus).
iv) Ability to pay. These taxes score
relatively well on that front, by definition. But remember that if you look at
all these taxes in the round, the marginal rate for our median taxpayer (basic
rate employee not entitled to tax credits working for a VATable business) is
fifty per cent, with much higher rates for higher and additional rate taxpayers
and the highest rates of all for those receiving means tested benefits. Again,
the people who lose out most are those who pay little or nothing in cash terms
– in other words all the failed businesses and the unemployed.
Taxes on the rental value of land
Land Value Tax in all its guises scores well on
all fronts and seem to combine the best aspects of the other two types:
i)
Assessability.
Is easy. As a layman, you cannot begin to guess how many adults live in a
particular home, how much they earn or what the turnover and profits or a
particular business are – it requires the force of law to make people disclose
all these things.
But working out the rental value of each site
is very easy; all you need to do is to know selling prices and rental values of
a reasonably large sample of residential and commercial premises in each
smaller defined area. You then subtract the rental value of similar premises in
the cheapest area and the balance is the “site premium”, i.e. the “location,
location, location” value which is generated by society as a whole.
ii)
Collectability
is also a doddle. Whoever is registered as the owner at HM Land Registry has to
pay the tax each year. If that owner does not pay, then the arrears can easily
be registered as a charge and once two or three years’ arrears have been built
up, the title is auctioned off and the arrears withheld from the sales
proceeds. For sure, some land owners are not yet registered at HM Land
Registry, but that is far from saying that the land itself is not registered
and this has never been a hindrance to collecting Council Tax or Business
Rates, which have the highest collection rates of all taxes at 98% or so.
iii)
Taxes on
the rental value have zero dead weight costs – like a Poll Tax - as they are
not related to private income or output. There is plenty of evidence to show
that they tend to stimulate the economy because land and buildings will always
be put to their most efficient use, in other words it would be too expensive to
keep valuable urban sites out of use or to allow buildings to fall derelict. If
taxes on land replace taxes on output and employment etc, then this would shed
the economy of the existing dead weight costs.
iv)
The
traditional main argument against taxes on the rental value of land is “ability
to pay”, the Poor Widow Bogey. They say that the tax would hit the “asset rich,
cash poor”. This is a non-argument in practical terms because it would be easy
to give such people discounts, exemptions or even better, the opportunity to
defer and roll up the tax to be repaid on death.
It is also only a transitional issue and does
not apply to the working population (the “wealth creators”) anyway. By and large, low-income people move into
cheap houses and high-income people move into expensive houses. Each purchaser will
take the tax into account when deciding which house he wants to buy and will
reduce the amount he is prepared to take out as a mortgage accordingly, so in
real terms, the tax costs him nothing. It is the same with business tenants –
they work out how much premises are worth to them, subtract the Business Rates
and pay the smaller balance as rent to the landlord.
v)
Willingness
to pay. Today’s land owners spit feathers about Business Rates and Council Tax,
and we know that the banks and land owners (and their stooges in the press,
Parliament and academia) have been are running a highly successful anti-LVT
campaign for a century.
But look at in terms of tenants and the next
generation of purchasers. Unlike taxes on income, there is a perfect
correlation between what you pay and what you get. If you are willing and able
to pay more, you get somewhere nicer, if you are unwilling or unable to pay,
you get somewhere not so nice – but this is exactly the same allocation as
under current rules whereby land/location values are collected privately by the
current land owner when he rents or sells.
This is absolutely no different to owners of
big cars paying much more in VAT on the new car, in fuel duty or road fund
licence. If we go with the fiction that VAT is borne by the purchaser, does
anybody complain that VAT on new cars is unfair, as it does not relate to
“ability or willingness to pay”? Of course not – if you can afford a new BMW,
you pay £10,000 in VAT and if you buy a run of the mill family saloon, you only
pay £4,000 VAT. If you can only afford a second hand car, you pay little or
nothing in VAT.
Summary
Land Value Tax has all the merits of a Poll Tax
– it is easy to assess and has no dead weight costs, but beats it hands down in
terms of collectability, ability and willingness to pay (there is a match
between amount paid and benefits received).
Land Value Tax has all the merits of taxes on
income as in the medium term as it relates to ability to pay (once everybody
has “right sized”) but none of the disadvantages – it is easier to assess and
collect and has no dead weight costs. It also beats it hands down in terms of
“willingness to pay”.
So besides the moral or philosophical arguments
and the fact that LVT leads to better outcomes (an LVT-only world works better
than a world without government or taxes), it is quite simply the case that LVT
beats all other forms of tax in a simple everyday pragmatic sense.
All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Unless indicated otherwise, all internet links accessed at time of writing. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.
Saturday, October 12, 2013
A rant
Richard Murphy grits his teeth at the Daily Mail, which is fighting a rearguard action on its criticisms of Miliband père and has started a counterattack on the Guardian's Snowden releases.
Richard has done sterling work on tracking offshore capital and tax avoidance, but has fallen into the trap of political and newspaper tribalism. What Dacre and Rusbridger say about themselves, each other and their respective publications will just be talking their brief. But the DM is something of a bullyrag to people of certain convictions, and it seems (I hope to be proved wrong) that they can't help but respond entirely predictably.
For example, a comment from "Philip" says, among other things, "The DM may not represent the ‘centre ground’ of establishment ideology but they do represent its worst excesses, its dregs, its most toxic sludge. They are its gutter. Gutter press in the truest sense."
So I say:
"Not sure the left vs right dichotomy is clear or helpful. On key issues both sides of Parliament appear to agree, e.g. on economic migration, though one suspects for different reasons (the Conservatives because importing cheap labour undercuts the working class' attempts to maintain and improve wage rates, New Labour because it "rubs the Right's nose in diversity" and - they hope - brings in fresh supporters for the Big State).
"The hegemony is that of coldly calculating careerist politicians and hangers-on who now know how to make the psephological machine work. Bear in mind that only one-third of MPs get 50%+ of the votes cast in a General Election (true in 2007 and 2010, for example), and look how they cooperated across the floor of the House to rubbish the Alternative Vote. Dum and Dee. I shall never forget seeing Cameron lead the applause for Blair as the latter parachuted out of Parliament and into the arms of JPM, and how only 4 MPs sat on their hands.
"I read the Daily Mail, just as Philip appears to read Karl Marx - critically (BTW - reference for the quotation, please?). This is something Radio 4 comedians and their obediently sniggering audiences don't seem to understand. When they slag off the DM, perhaps for the sake of balance they can remind their sycophantic listeners how the journalists in the Guardian newsroom watched the Twin Towers burn live on TV and said the Americans had it coming to them. As far as I'm concerned no paper and no TV station represents "pravda" or "izvestiya"."
And, by the way, as with Assange, I'm glad Snowden has made certain documents public. It's not the Russians that our lot want to hide it from, it's us. In recent years we've begun to understand what our own governments are like - they are, as Charles Lamb said, "as bad as they dare to be" (10 March 1798).
All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Unless indicated otherwise, all internet links accessed at time of writing. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.
Richard has done sterling work on tracking offshore capital and tax avoidance, but has fallen into the trap of political and newspaper tribalism. What Dacre and Rusbridger say about themselves, each other and their respective publications will just be talking their brief. But the DM is something of a bullyrag to people of certain convictions, and it seems (I hope to be proved wrong) that they can't help but respond entirely predictably.
For example, a comment from "Philip" says, among other things, "The DM may not represent the ‘centre ground’ of establishment ideology but they do represent its worst excesses, its dregs, its most toxic sludge. They are its gutter. Gutter press in the truest sense."
So I say:
"Not sure the left vs right dichotomy is clear or helpful. On key issues both sides of Parliament appear to agree, e.g. on economic migration, though one suspects for different reasons (the Conservatives because importing cheap labour undercuts the working class' attempts to maintain and improve wage rates, New Labour because it "rubs the Right's nose in diversity" and - they hope - brings in fresh supporters for the Big State).
"The hegemony is that of coldly calculating careerist politicians and hangers-on who now know how to make the psephological machine work. Bear in mind that only one-third of MPs get 50%+ of the votes cast in a General Election (true in 2007 and 2010, for example), and look how they cooperated across the floor of the House to rubbish the Alternative Vote. Dum and Dee. I shall never forget seeing Cameron lead the applause for Blair as the latter parachuted out of Parliament and into the arms of JPM, and how only 4 MPs sat on their hands.
"I read the Daily Mail, just as Philip appears to read Karl Marx - critically (BTW - reference for the quotation, please?). This is something Radio 4 comedians and their obediently sniggering audiences don't seem to understand. When they slag off the DM, perhaps for the sake of balance they can remind their sycophantic listeners how the journalists in the Guardian newsroom watched the Twin Towers burn live on TV and said the Americans had it coming to them. As far as I'm concerned no paper and no TV station represents "pravda" or "izvestiya"."
And, by the way, as with Assange, I'm glad Snowden has made certain documents public. It's not the Russians that our lot want to hide it from, it's us. In recent years we've begun to understand what our own governments are like - they are, as Charles Lamb said, "as bad as they dare to be" (10 March 1798).
All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Unless indicated otherwise, all internet links accessed at time of writing. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.
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