Should Americans dump their dollars?

Karl Denninger comments today on Greece's alleged failure to roll-over her debt, Germany's weakness and the fatal over-extension of debt in the American economy.

I respect Karl's expertise and information, but am often put off by his (to me) excessive use of bold type, underlining and capitalised words, dramatic language etc. Nevertheless, he's making a couple of radical predictions.

One is a very severe US stockmarket drop ("half -- or more", "try a 90% loss on for size"). Another is the consequent failure of insurance-based guarantees, including (a) annuities and (b) the FDIC.

Unlike here in the UK, where bank deposits are guaranteed by the Government, in the USA depositors are protected by a company, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, so the value of the guarantee depends on the value of the assets held by the FDIC.

I touched on this question of FDIC underfunding in 2008 (following "Mish") and 2009 (following Karl himself) and if Karl is right, the moment of truth could be drawing near.

Yet there are others, including Charles Hugh Smith, who contrariwise expect the dollar to strengthen as the world trading system unravels, or at least to survive because its collapse would properly collapse the system.

We do live in uncertain times. My instinct would be to hedge my bets, but the conventional methods employed by investors - insurance-type hedging - may not work in a very unstable situation. Consider counterparty risk.

INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None. Still in cash (and index-linked National Savings Certificates), and missing all those day-trading opportunities.

DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog.

Children's language development and the importance of teachers

Via James, I have just come across this absolutely fascinating 10-minute talk.

It demonstrates that there is a vital and very early window of learning in which babies acquire the typical sounds of their native language - has to happen well within the first year of life.

But partway through the talk, there is a piece of research showing that audio / TV make virtually NO difference to learning new sounds, it HAS to be through direct human contact.

To me, a possible implication is that this connection of learning with the social part of the brain is that it may also be true for later learning.

Perhaps teachers cannot be replaced by computers, after all - despite this new project in the USA by a private company looking to get into educational provision.

NS&I withdraw Savings Certificates

On 28th May I said the clock was ticking for those who wanted to get into NS&I Savings Certificates; it's now stopped. Received by email today:

"Dear Mr Norfolk

As you’ve registered to receive updates from NS&I, I’m writing to let you know that all current Issues of NS&I Savings Certificates were withdrawn from general sale at close of business on 6 September 2011.

The latest Issues of Savings Certificates had been on sale for almost four months (since 12 May 2011) and have been very popular. When we launched the Issues we expected the amount invested to be substantial, and our expectations have now been met.

We’re sorry if you haven’t been able to invest on this occasion, but we will contact you again as soon as the next Issues go on general sale.

You can see the current rates for all NS&I accounts and investments on our interest rates page.

Yours sincerely

Garry Bond

Head of Customer Management"

To me, this makes clear that the Government is not really much interested in protecting savers; a point I made to Douglas Carswell MP back in May.

I'll let you know when these Certificates are on sale again - I guess it'll be early in the next tax year, i.e. April/May 2012, after "sales targets" have been set by the Treasury.

INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None. Still in cash (and index-linked National Savings Certificates), and missing all those day-trading opportunities.

DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog.

Never, ever give up

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: a half-starved black cat has appeared at the kitchen door of our hard-to-get-into garden. After some food and drink, she is now laying siege outside. We have already progressed to the cardboard-box-and-blanket-in-the-garage-and-get-some-catfood-in stage.

_____________________________________

Discovered last month, a dog living on Africa's highest mountain. And back in 1950, a kitten followed a party of climbers to the top of the Matterhorn:

Perhaps I shouldn't quit, after all.

Why Tony Blair was PM, and Jack Straw never will be

"In 2005, a year after Belhadj’s rendition, Jack Straw declared there was ‘no truth’ in claims of British involvement, while Tony Blair maintained there was ‘absolutely no evidence’." - Daily Mail

Blair, with his Prince of Orange tan and ever camera-ready face, is slippery; Straw, with his worn, domesticated look is slippery as defined by Ross Noble: a bit like a slipper.

Straw gets into trouble; Blair, as a teacher at his public school said, "... is a superb actor. He’s good at getting others into trouble but avoiding it himself. He’s a s*** and Labour will regret it if you choose him."

Perhaps I should be glad that Blair, described by Clarissa Dickson-Wright as a "mimsy psychopath", got where he did; glad that the bankers have brought the country down and yet are themselves prospering better than ever; glad that MPs cheated on their expenses; that my share of the vote will soon go from 1 in 72,000 to one in 80,000; that the law is an ass, that the police have become better at public relations than public protection, that nurses are too busy to feed and water their patients, that the DPP has decided to turn a blind eye to euthanasia.

For where the authorities and institutions of this world are concerned, I want liberation from trust. I wish the reverse of Mark 9:24 - "I disbelieve; help thou mine belief". So many of us write to the papers (press men tell each other we're nutters), comment on web posts (and are derided by Private Eye's "From the message boards" column) and, of course, write our own citizen's-journal pieces for no money and which are read by almost nobody.

What a weight will be lifted from our shoulders when we finally give up, and ape our betters in the cold pursuit of self-interest.

Sweet and sour economics

An Australian lawyer has commented on my inaugural post, which was a review of Michael Panzner's prescient "Financial Armageddon". He (or she) says:

I got a copy of this book. I found it somewhat depressing. Don't get me wrong, it was realistic and all. Thing is the scenarios were done in a pretty pessimistic way—at least for my liking.

My reply:

Sourness tends to go down badly with the enviably vigorous and cheerful Australian, but remember the irrationally exuberant times in which this book was written - in a way, it was a spoonful of vinegar to make the toffee mixture right.

Three of the four problems are finally in public debate; the question now is whether the derivatives market will be brought under proper control before a disruption there causes a crisis that the current economic system can't handle. Theoretically there is a counterparty for every bet, but if someone welches on a big one (and the derivatives market is inconceivably enormous) there could be a domino effect.

Depression is often swallowed anger born of frustration, which in turn comes from trying to fix things that are out of your control. The real lesson of this book is to turn to the things you can fix yourself. Get out of debt, develop more than one line of income, build up emergency reserves of cash, tools and supplies, build up and nurture your social network, consider where you should be residing in case society becomes unstable, and remember (as we were beginning to forget in those days) that life is not just about money. Especially when fiat money in its present form may be an endangered species.

What housing shortage?

Panellists on Radio 4's Any Questions? and Charles Moore in this week's Spectator magazine agree (with lots of others, it seems) that there is a housing shortage in the UK and the only question is how to satisfy it. I beg to differ, or at least think we can question the assumption.

1. "According to The Empty Homes Agency, there are an estimated 870,000 empty homes in the UK and enough empty commercial property to create 420,000 new homes", according to the BBC website section on Homes.

2. There are over 245,000 registered second homes in the UK, according to Schofields home insurers.

3. The 2001 census showed that average home occupation in England and Wales had declined from 10 years before, from 2.51 to 2.36 persons.

4. According to the official Housing Survey of 2008/9, 7.7 million households were couples with no dependent children; there were also 6.2 million single person households (up from 3.8 million in 1981).

5. The same survey showed that the average (mean) dwelling had 2.8 bedrooms, rising to 3.0 bedrooms for owner-occupiers. Fewer than 3% of households were defined as overcrowded.

6. According to a 2005 Home Office study, there were 310,000 - 570,000 illegal immigrants in the UK, a figure which MigrationWatch thought to be underestimated by 15,000 - 85,000. This is a separate issue from the 8.7% of the population who are economic migrants to the UK, and whose real net contribution to the economy (after taking into account all benefits to which they and their dependants may be entitled) is a matter of debate.

We are not in the situation we faced in 1945, when soldiers returning home from war squatted on military sites and even caves. The modern "housing shortage" is an arbitrary notion.