The long crisis, and the rediscovery of the family

Calculated Risk plots the actual and projected change in demographics from 1950 to 2050, adds the observation that over-65s cost 3 times as much in medical care as their juniors, and the rest is future history.

Meanwhile, Leo Kolivakis looks at the looming meltdown in US pension schemes, mirroring what's going on now in the UK.

Long term, it looks like down with house prices (since the younger generation will have much less free income to take on debt) and (thanks to the oldies' rising income need) down with stocks.

Nurture your young.

... and the money trickles up

... Americans will thus pay for the TARP and low interest rate subsidies to their financial rulers with erosion in the purchasing power of the dollar. What we are experiencing is a massive redistribution of income from the American public to the financial sector.

- Paul Craig Roberts (htp: Jesse)

The ranks close

...the US has a finance and policy elite defined by college ties and related social connections, an elite with a strong sense that only people in their circle can really be trusted, and that their institutions must be saved at all cost at taxpayer expense if necessary.

- Robin Hanson

The energy crisis

There's much talk of looming energy problems - it's a staple of Nick Drew's blogging and even The Economist has now turned its attention to it. Today I see Brian Gongol has netted a story about battery development and how it could support the energy infrastructure.

But how much could we still do in the way of more efficient use, and non-use, of energy? According to this DTI report based on 2001 stats, the home uses 31% of the nation's energy (see Chart 1.3 on page 9). Chart 1.6 shows that in 2000, space heating accounted for 40% of all non-transport energy consumption.

More woolly pullies?

Law

We've been renting a house and now it's about to be sold; but the purchaser is delaying the exchange of contracts, with good reason:

The house has a fabulous view southwards, across fields and woods to the silver river and the sea beyond. This is an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty, which is also a Site of Special Scientific Interest, so it should be highly protected. However, the field immediately in front is owned by a farmer who wants planning permission to build six houses on it. He's tried several times before, and although he's on the local council himself, he's been turned down each time, so far.

I jest to the owner of our house: "Have you tried dropping a few rare species in the field?"

"There are rare species. The Authority wrote a letter to him saying that they would be conducting a field survey. When he got the letter, he mowed the whole field - right down to the ground. Then he sprayed it all over with weedkiller."

I see a bad moon rising

... sang Creedence Clearwater Revival. And as Panzner points out, inequality and growing poverty are factors that destabilise society.

He reproduces a graph (see below) that shows inequality is now higher than it was just before the Crash of 1929. The line also suggests that the rich do get hurt when the economy goes down - but they still do very well compared to the "ordinaries":

See where the least inequality came? Around 1980 - just when "it was decided" that lending and debt should take off and power a generation-long series of bubbles. Please see below my graph from June, which shows that political conservatives can be far from conservative when it comes to handling the nation's finances:

Market signals

At the hospital shop, a woman puts a £1.15 bottle of mineral water on the counter. The till operator says, "If you buy a Telegraph, the water's free."
"How much is the Telegraph?"
"90p."
"Okay." She rings it up. "Do you want the paper?"
"No."
She folds it and puts it to one side.

Everybody happy.