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Sunday, August 28, 2011
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Monday, August 22, 2011
Don't tax the wealthy, use their wealth instead
There's a crisp and witty summation of the fiscal quandary we're in, from our man in San Marcos today.
I'm beginning to wonder whether simply taxing the elite is the best solution. That only means taking from A and giving to B, which A will resist and which turns B into a resentful and useless benefit recipient.
Little wonder that the rich are seeking some other way to spend their assets. The group of billionaires that have pledged half their wealth to global charity are, it seems to me, trying to buy God and our good opinion, but it doesn't quite work for me.
I'd have been more impressed if George Soros hadn't (quite legally, of course) swindled some of his fortune from the British public on Black Monday. I'd be pleased if Bill Gates spent some of his stack on ensuring that his software products work properly, instead of repeatedly launching them with multiple holes below the waterline: it's only a matter of time before my new Windows 7-equipped netbook has its working memory entirely filled with "critically important updates" and "service packs", and meantime it works jerkily as the machine juggles my use of it with behind-the-scenes internet downloads of these monster corrections.
So my suggestion, as I commented on Jim's piece, is to put the rich to work:
"I think the issues are productive employment, the over-concentration of wealth, and the parking of the latter in established (global and foreign) businesses instead of new (domestic) ones.
The wealthy need to start spending - investing in new factories and technologies and getting people back into decently-paid work."
I'm beginning to wonder whether simply taxing the elite is the best solution. That only means taking from A and giving to B, which A will resist and which turns B into a resentful and useless benefit recipient.
Little wonder that the rich are seeking some other way to spend their assets. The group of billionaires that have pledged half their wealth to global charity are, it seems to me, trying to buy God and our good opinion, but it doesn't quite work for me.
I'd have been more impressed if George Soros hadn't (quite legally, of course) swindled some of his fortune from the British public on Black Monday. I'd be pleased if Bill Gates spent some of his stack on ensuring that his software products work properly, instead of repeatedly launching them with multiple holes below the waterline: it's only a matter of time before my new Windows 7-equipped netbook has its working memory entirely filled with "critically important updates" and "service packs", and meantime it works jerkily as the machine juggles my use of it with behind-the-scenes internet downloads of these monster corrections.
So my suggestion, as I commented on Jim's piece, is to put the rich to work:
"I think the issues are productive employment, the over-concentration of wealth, and the parking of the latter in established (global and foreign) businesses instead of new (domestic) ones.
The wealthy need to start spending - investing in new factories and technologies and getting people back into decently-paid work."
Friday, August 12, 2011
Cash - the investment of the century
There's been comment recently about how the ordinary investor has been abandoning the market, in some cases with an undertone of contempt for the poor saps who are missing out on those incredible gains to be made just around the corner.
The banks who from time to time attempt to poach my clients often use past performance an an indicator of future returns, while of course covering themselves by the usual disclaimers. Typically they cherry-pick among terms of 1, 3, 5 and 10 years.
Let's see how the graph for the Dow would look over various time periods, and compare it with cash in your bedsock. To be fair, let's ignore the interest you could have earned on cash, and the dividends on stocks; as a special favour to the Dow, so being especially unfair to cash, let's also ignore the offer-bid spread and the fees and charges loaded onto the investor.
Over the last 12 months:, you could have made a good profit - well, you could if you'd got out a month early:
... over the last 3 years:
... over the last 5 years:
... and since January 2000:
The banks who from time to time attempt to poach my clients often use past performance an an indicator of future returns, while of course covering themselves by the usual disclaimers. Typically they cherry-pick among terms of 1, 3, 5 and 10 years.
Let's see how the graph for the Dow would look over various time periods, and compare it with cash in your bedsock. To be fair, let's ignore the interest you could have earned on cash, and the dividends on stocks; as a special favour to the Dow, so being especially unfair to cash, let's also ignore the offer-bid spread and the fees and charges loaded onto the investor.
Over the last 12 months:, you could have made a good profit - well, you could if you'd got out a month early:
... over the last 3 years:
... over the last 5 years:
... and since January 2000:
"Mish" today points out that we are in deflation, if you are a monetarist, since credit and asset values have contracted. Inflation scares suit those who are running what some call a "wolf market" - come out, little pigs, it's all clear now.
What inflation? The consumer - and the inflation indices - may notice a rise in food and energy prices, but that's not what your nest-egg is for. Look at house prices - still going down in the UK and the USA - and all the other big-ticket items that in recent years were purchased with borrowed money.
I think Mish is right, for now. The concern I have - and it's reflected in the soaring price of gold - is what governments will do in their desperation once giving money to busted and corrupt banks (and governments) is finally seen as worse than useless. Can the bond market really dictate terms in an economic collapse, or will governments across the world break their currencies with the final splurge of money-printing that third-party control by central banks is designed to prevent?
Until that time, and despite the temptations of commodities, maybe cash-holders should hold the line while the enemy advances. A lot depends on your personal plans, of course; we're hoping to move house and such cash savings as we have may continue to appreciate against the thing we want. So really it's about relative values - comparing asset A with asset B - decided by you, not some index that doesn't reflect your priorities.
INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None. Still in cash (and index-linked National Savings Certificates), and missing all those day-trading opportunities.
DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog.
Tuesday, August 09, 2011
Where "should" the stock market be?
There's a flap on about market declines. I think it's because the traders are kids.
Take a look at the graph below, which shows the Dow since the end of WWII. Bearing in mind that in real terms, a thousand points on the Dow was worth more in the past than today, where do you think we ought to be, if the market was "normal", or better yet "sane"?
Adjusting for inflation (CPI-U), and looking at the Dow's progress from August 1945 to August 1980 (around when the Great Inflation really started), then extrapolating, I figure the Dow should be a shade under 3,000 points today.
The rest is, effectively, monetary bubble - which is not to say it can't continue.
INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None. Still in cash (and index-linked National Savings Certificates), and missing all those day-trading opportunities.
DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog.
Take a look at the graph below, which shows the Dow since the end of WWII. Bearing in mind that in real terms, a thousand points on the Dow was worth more in the past than today, where do you think we ought to be, if the market was "normal", or better yet "sane"?
Adjusting for inflation (CPI-U), and looking at the Dow's progress from August 1945 to August 1980 (around when the Great Inflation really started), then extrapolating, I figure the Dow should be a shade under 3,000 points today.
The rest is, effectively, monetary bubble - which is not to say it can't continue.
INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None. Still in cash (and index-linked National Savings Certificates), and missing all those day-trading opportunities.
DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog.
Monday, August 08, 2011
China downgrades American credit to "A"
Half a world away from the USA, China's Dagong credit rating agency can afford to be blunter than Standard & Poor.
Their view, shared by many in the West, is that the problems have not been solved but damagingly deferred; $4 trillion needs to be cut from the public budget within 5 years; QE3 is inevitable and "will throw the world economy into an overall crisis". Accordingly, on August 3 Dagong downgraded the US rating further, to "A, with a negative outlook".
If the Western rating agencies dare to echo that view (and some see last week's S&P's re-rating to AA+ as an attempt to break the news gently), it could be the trigger for a more serious selloff in the stock and bond markets. Disaster for many, opportunity for some - perhaps.
INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None. Still in cash (and index-linked National Savings Certificates), and missing all those day-trading opportunities.
DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog.
Their view, shared by many in the West, is that the problems have not been solved but damagingly deferred; $4 trillion needs to be cut from the public budget within 5 years; QE3 is inevitable and "will throw the world economy into an overall crisis". Accordingly, on August 3 Dagong downgraded the US rating further, to "A, with a negative outlook".
If the Western rating agencies dare to echo that view (and some see last week's S&P's re-rating to AA+ as an attempt to break the news gently), it could be the trigger for a more serious selloff in the stock and bond markets. Disaster for many, opportunity for some - perhaps.
INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None. Still in cash (and index-linked National Savings Certificates), and missing all those day-trading opportunities.
DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog.
In a nutshell - the investment crisis
A bear market is one where the odds of losing are greater than the odds of winning; they built Las Vegas on the back of it. So the gambling will continue, a few will do well and most will lose their wad. The difference is, Wall Street won't serve you drinks.
Sunday, August 07, 2011
Crash? What crash?
The hackneyed news media deadlines are trotted out again: "x billion wiped off shares". How quickly we forget.
Below are the charts for the FTSE and the Dow from their recent low points in March 2009:
Below are the charts for the FTSE and the Dow from their recent low points in March 2009:
The FTSE closed Friday 49.4% higher than 29 months ago; the Dow, 74.8% higher.
I think that ultimately, both will (in real terms) plumb depths significantly deeper than they did in 2009, but it will not happen in one go, and it will take a long time.
The stockmarket is not a store of money: A has already paid B for ownership of the shares, and the money went into B's bank account. The money is not parked on Wall Street or Paternoster Square, it merely passes through it.
On the way, it's purchased either the promise of a future income stream (and how reasonable is that hope in an unravelling world economy?) or the chance to sell on to a bigger fool (in the hope that it hasn't already happened).
Remember, you don't have to be in this game. I should like to know where the traders' and bankers' bonuses are invested at the moment: do they eat where they cook?
INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None. Still in cash (and index-linked National Savings Certificates), and missing all those day-trading opportunities.
DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog.
Monday, August 01, 2011
Gold and its correlation to debt and GDP - updated
Jesse offers a chart showing an apparently close relationship with the price of gold and the growth of US official debt, thus:
He wonders how this might look in relation to debt/GDP, and I give below gold's correlation with GDP and with debt in its broadest sense (TCMDO, ignoring intragovernmental lending) in the period 1952 - 2010:
I would suggest that gold's basic correlation is with GDP, but with wild swings reflecting debt-fuelled manias and financial crises. On this showing, and despite what looks like a meteoric rise over the last few years, gold is merely coming home and is not yet overpriced in the long view. This, as I understand him, is what Dr Marc Faber also thinks.
Not having had the money at the right time, I missed the opportunity to climb aboard gold when it was severely underpriced; but may do so soon, merely to preserve some of the value of our savings.
I'm not so much a gold bug as a most-everything-else bear. When the system stops lending cheap money to the riverboat gamblers with dusty top cards on Wall Street, I'll be interested in genuine investment.
UPDATE:
Here's the price of gold compared to the growth in Total Public Debt Outstanding since fiscal year 1929 - this includes intragovernmental debt (please click to enlarge):
INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None - YET. Still in cash (and some inflation-linked government savings certificates), and missing all those day-trading opportunities.
DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog.
He wonders how this might look in relation to debt/GDP, and I give below gold's correlation with GDP and with debt in its broadest sense (TCMDO, ignoring intragovernmental lending) in the period 1952 - 2010:
I would suggest that gold's basic correlation is with GDP, but with wild swings reflecting debt-fuelled manias and financial crises. On this showing, and despite what looks like a meteoric rise over the last few years, gold is merely coming home and is not yet overpriced in the long view. This, as I understand him, is what Dr Marc Faber also thinks.
Not having had the money at the right time, I missed the opportunity to climb aboard gold when it was severely underpriced; but may do so soon, merely to preserve some of the value of our savings.
I'm not so much a gold bug as a most-everything-else bear. When the system stops lending cheap money to the riverboat gamblers with dusty top cards on Wall Street, I'll be interested in genuine investment.
UPDATE:
Here's the price of gold compared to the growth in Total Public Debt Outstanding since fiscal year 1929 - this includes intragovernmental debt (please click to enlarge):
INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None - YET. Still in cash (and some inflation-linked government savings certificates), and missing all those day-trading opportunities.
DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog.
Friday, July 29, 2011
Banks' final grab: the land
UPDATE: It's happening! Unbelievable!
_________________________________________
Robert Wenzel comments approvingly on a course of action mooted in a meeting of primary dealers and the US Treasury held at midday today. The idea:
"Dealers suggested that the Treasury might be able to repo their MBS portfolio to raise cash."
Yes, I should think banks would like to suggest that: have the government that bailed them out, now sell the MBS (mortgage-backed securities) back to them at fire-sale prices. 31 million mortgages - about half of all the mortgages in the USA - delivered into the hands of the swindlers.
What daring. It is almost Biblical in the scale of its impudence.
For the record, let's list these players:
BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Barclays Capital Inc.
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
Jefferies & Company, Inc.
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
MF Global Inc.
Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated
Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
Nomura Securities International, Inc.
RBC Capital Markets, LLC
RBS Securities Inc.
SG Americas Securities, LLC
UBS Securities LLC.
You'll note that six of them are now Limited Liability Companies (LLC), the latest to convert being Morgan Stanley (as of May 31, 2011). Apparently, this has a tax advantage for derivatives dealers; but I wonder whether not having shareholders while also avoiding personal liability is an equally important consideration, as we approach the endgame, when bank shares may finally burn up.
Imagine what Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson would say, if they could see how in the Land of the Free a tiny elite not only owns most of the cash, bonds and shares, but now aspires to seize the real estate. America is approaching a peak of wealth inequality and mass servitude comparable to the condition of England in the eighteenth century, but without the hopes offered by the Industrial Revolution.
INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None. Still in cash, and missing all those day-trading opportunities.
DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog.
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