The penny drops

So, why Chloe Smith? Why is a 27-year-old accountant suddenly an MP?

Then it dawned on me: newsreaders. That's what they are today.

Doesn't mean they're stupid (Chloe got her first class honours) or unskilful (the swan above, the paddling feet below); but it's a different skill set, and a completely different function.

Can't remember when we were asked about this change of job description, though.

Signs and portents

Over at Financial Sense University, Jim Willie paints a frightening picture. He claims that the US Federal Reserve has been secretly giving dollars to foreigners to buy US Treasury Certificates, so (temporarily) supporting US bonds and the dollar. Meanwhile, big banks are waiting for smaller banks to suffers losses on commercial loans, at which point they will gobble up their smaller competitors. But the big banks are insolvent, so rather than a healing juncture, it'll be a vampire puncture.

Studying the US Dollar Index, Willie uses a measure that Karl Denninger has previously cited, namely, a comparison of two trends: the 20-week moving average with the 50-week moving average. When the first crosses the second, the second will eventually follow - in this case, downwards.

In my previous post, I referred to signs and portents. This is because when big things are happening, the fog of lies thickens, so we have to look for betraying details and use our intuitions. Art is often the canary in the mine - you hear the coming conflict in the discords of Stravinsky's 1910 "the Rite of Spring". The disturbed children that I teach have recently been exploring zombies. Some also play computer games at home, that involve stabbing opponents in the eyes or genitals. One child's graffiti tag is JABZ.

Doodling, they draw pistols, rifles, knives, swords; but still read Postman Pat and Spongebob Squarepants. Gossiping, they talk of their mother's vibrator, their father's merkin, but (at age 11) don't quite understand and are looking forward to learning the facts about sex next week, which our curriculum now requires me to deliver. They come in shadow-eyed from gaming, but also from (in one case) accompanying their father late at night as he hunts down and savagely beats people who tied up and soaked with petrol an uncle suspected of stealing a motorbike. Where are the police? you may ask; the father is an ex-policeman. The Monarch's writ does not run where our underclass have to live; to have normal social inhibitions would be dangerous in such an environment.

Some may accuse me of moral panic; but I didn't grow up with the currently prevailing sense of moral ambiguity, despair and social collapse. Are we breeding a nation of future child guerrilla-band soldiers? And how tragic, how culpable, that the entertainment industry is playing its part in this; and that the Government hopes to shore up its vote by perpetuating the financial dependence of its claimants.

But it won't happen to us, will it? "Wat geht dat mik an?" as the mediaeval Germans would say: "What's it got to do with me?" Years ago, my Prussian grandmother described Der Flucht, the flight from the Red Army in 1945. They would come to a farm and be very grudgingly permitted to sleep in the haybarn; two days later, the owners would be on the road themselves.

We are in this together; but I cannot see how the present political arrangement can tackle the challenges. There are too many ways for our leadership to be distracted, to be suborned and to escape consequences personally.

They

Lots of people now muttering darkly. But if we think we know what They are up to, and think we can't thwart Them, there should be some way to exploit the situation. For example, if They are manipulating the price of gold to keep it down for as long as possible, then surely it's a great time to buy it before They run out of possible.

Can't we do better than call vainly for somebody to restore justice to the world? Because that's the one thing that won't happen.

So, any ideas?

For example, what to do about the New World Order coinage unveiled by Medvedev the other day?

If you have a son or daughter, would you advise him/her to join GS and their ilk? Or McKinsey? Or emigrate?

Off with his security pass!

Jim Fedako argues that the point of democracy is not to serve the people, but to allow ousted leaders to lose their jobs while keeping their heads.

Does liberty mean no more than this?

A winning move for New Labour?

What if New Labour's next General Election manifesto were to contain a pledge to hold a straightforward, binding referendum on British membership of the EU?

It's us or Them - and inflation's coming

Paul B. Farrell argues - plausibly - that we're in a life-or-death struggle with the financial elite, and they will "win", until the system can no longer sustain them - or us.

A self-deprecating blogger styled "The Anecdotal Economist" suggests a fight back in the form of switching your savings and borrowings away from these enemies of the people.

htp: Jesse, who has joined the Angry Brigade and whose regularly changed sidebar links for reading ("Matière à Réflexion") are a treasure trove.

Meanwhile, John Williams of Shadowstats says:

We will see inflation levels not seen in our lifetime by as early as the end of this year. Eventually we will see liabilities of $65 trillion – more than four times U.S. GDP, more than global GDP. There will be a hyper inflation where the dollar becomes worthless, where the paper is worth more as wall paper than as currency.

htp: Michael Panzner, who also is a great pre-reader for us. Michael says he's switched swides to the inflation believers, but he's too modest - he himself predicted deflation followed by inflation in "Financial Armageddon".

That sinking feeling

(Big figure )
(Little figure)

The replacement of democratic government by carte blanche

Secret inflation: Mish relays a Telegraph article about yet another unscrupulous legal change to make government less accountable - the BoE will be able to increase the money supply without reporting it.

Increasingly, the British Government seem to me to have become a coup by loophole.

The disenfranchised shareowner?

A startling picture of how share ownership has shrunk - pretty steadily, despite the Conservatives' pledge in the 1980s to widen it. Though I can't tell from this to what extent it's down to individuals' purchase of unit trusts, investment trusts and collective pension funds.

htp: Patrick Vessey

P.S. I Like the flowers. Man.

Democratic deficit

How come I can vote several times a week at Waitrose, but only once every five years or so in national elections (and with a result that's a foregone conclusion)?

Every little thing's gonna be all right

From what I read, some people are becoming survivalist: storing food, water, medicines, cash, even weapons.

Perhaps it's no coincidence that BBC is currently screening a remake of Terry Nation's gripping 1975 post-catastrophe series, "Survivors". But that series assumes that most people have died suddenly because of a virus, so the ecosystem has not been destroyed by desparate, starving victims. I don't think Survivors is the model we should use. If we are to survive, it'll be together, in our populous societies, because if society breaks down, you and I are unlikely to emerge as the last people standing. Lone heroes don't win; this is a fantasy.

I think spare supplies are a good idea, because there could be some disruption, which could affect the very young and elderly; so we need ways to keep warm, eat and have clean water in an emergency. And it's important to make your home secure against a rise in burglary, which is associated with economic downturns; and not to go out after dark without at least one or two companions. Weapons are another matter: "guns in the home are far more likely to be used against members of the household than against intruders."

Pace the doomsters, the UK and the USA will feed itself. We may end up eating more veg and less meat; and we may be using public transport instead of cars; personally, that would simply take me back to the 70s, when I was slimmer and fitter. Globally and locally, there is enough to feed the world, although not enough to overfeed it or encourage unproductive men to sire children.

Two aspects of the current crisis worry me:

1. The present method of organising resources may be replaced, not by one dreamed of by well-fed Western socialists, but by a cruel, remote, commanding elite as in North Korea or East Germany, who far from minimising scarcity will use it to get and maintain power.

2. The transition from this system to whatever replaces it, may be disorderly and involve suffering for many people.

This is why I think the underlying issue for us is to preserve and strengthen democracy, to increase the chances that both the journey and the journey's end are acceptable.

And as for the D-word...

The Economist Intelligence Unit democracy index has moved the UK up from 23rd place in 2006 to 21st place in 2008. Of course, this was before the government started nationalising the banks and arresting the Opposition.

Even so, the Civil Liberties strand has fallen in two years from 9.12 to 8.82; and the competition seems to be weakening anyway, as the 2008 report notes:

...following a decades-long global trend in democratisation, the spread of democracy has come to a halt. Comparing the results for 2008 with those from the first edition of the index, which covered 2006, shows that the dominant pattern in the past two years has been stagnation. Although there is no recent trend of outright regression, there are few instances of significant improvement. However, the global financial crisis, resulting in a sharp and possibly protracted recession, could threaten democracy in some parts of the world.

Don't write it, think it

Handy-dandy, the pigs are the farmers

Place your political parties in the schema below:At first, I wondered what Hatfield Girl was talking about. Now it's one of the news headlines on the morning radio, and in the papers: the Government has taken to arresting members of the Opposition, like tinpot dictators in faraway countries that it's difficult to believe really exist.

Difficult to believe; that's part of the process. Honestly, I have felt since 1997 (and I am no natural Conservative voter, please believe me) that something was obscurely wrong, that we were all inside someone else's dream. It's like that feeling you get that you've forgotten something, but haven't a clue what it might be.

Before 1997, the Government was Them and we were Us: British, muddling through, ready to heave a brickbat at these clowns who pretend to rule us, but all of us bound by habit and tradition. But in Tony Blair's revolution, the Government claimed to represent all of us: it was the political wing of the British people as a whole, or some such typical Toni verbalfluff.

This is how Nazism took hold - and my mother lived through it. No need for the unions, we the national socialist State represent the worker's best interests, etc.

Fascism, Communism - it's all the same, structurally.

Presumed Consent, Part Two

The government "has not ruled out" a scheme to treat those who die intestate as donors to Party funds, a spokesman said today. A White Paper shortly to be issued by HMSO for limited distribution assumes the writing of a will to be an opt-out by the deceased from offering their estates to the Labour Party, and deems those who fail to make such an elementary arrangement to have assented thereby to the seizure of their goods after death. At Prime Minister's Questions, the Premier declined to discuss the proposal, saying that it was a matter for the Treasury Committee, to which he has just made several new appointments to supplement the existing membership. Further details of the Paper and the composition of the Committee are withheld, as subject to a Confidentiality Order under European legislation. However, we are permitted to reveal that a Will Contestation Board will shortly be set up and given terms of reference, under the aegis of the Privy Council.

Presumed consent

The government has embarked on a campaign to convince the nation that an opt-out or presumed consent system for General Elections will improve government majorities and save on administrative costs. Under the proposed system, the voter will be presumed to have voted for New Labour unless he/she has registered their dissent. Only if an outright majority of those eligible to vote have registered such a protest, will the public be put to the inconvenience of an election. Dissenters will be interviewed at Neighbourhood Offices to determine that they understand the issues properly and that their reasons for objecting are valid.

A future case for impeachment?

The threats:

htp: Karl Denninger

The result:

At least $125bn is to go to nine of America's largest banks, including Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, in exchange for capital under the rescue plan.

The power:

(9) TROUBLED ASSETS-

The term `troubled assets' means--

(A) residential or commercial mortgages and any securities, obligations, or other instruments that are based on or related to such mortgages, that in each case was originated or issued on or before March 14, 2008, the purchase of which the Secretary determines promotes financial market stability; and

(B) any other financial instrument that the Secretary, after consultation with the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, determines the purchase of which is necessary to promote financial market stability, but only upon transmittal of such determination, in writing, to the appropriate committees of Congress.

...not "prior approval", you'll note. For those that think they understand law, here is the full text of the genetically-modified bill as enacted on 3rd October 2008.

And here's an intriguing clause in Section 119:

(2) LIMITATIONS ON EQUITABLE RELIEF.—

(A) INJUNCTION.—No injunction or other form of equitable relief shall be issued against the Secretary for actions pursuant to section 101, 102, 106, and 109, other than to remedy a violation of the Constitution.

Excuse my ignorance, but is this a watered-down version of the infamous "non-reviewable" Paulosn proposal ("Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.")?

The BBC perspective

After yesterday's "No!" in Congress, BBC "business editor" Robert Peston refers to a "breakdown in the US political system."

To me, it's the very opposite: it's a prewar Lagonda that has spent years with its axles on bricks, and it's just had a new set of tyres put on; after long disuse, the engine has finally turned over. Maybe it will seize up again, but for now there is a hint of democratic accountability.

For example, is it not interesting that more Democrats voted against the Bill, than Republicans for (both as a percentage and in absolute numbers)?

I watched Peston on TV last night and said to my wife, "I should be in front of that microphone." I heard him on the radio this morning and still want his job.

The MSM: one despairs.

Have Britons become slaves?

Lilith's daughter has been charged for demonstrating back in June. I was disturbed about it then, and am again now.

As in the early nineteenth century, the people are effectively disenfranchised and have little other way to express their dissatisfaction than by demonstrations - in this case, holding up a placard. Do American police arrest placard-holders outside the White House, or is America still a democracy?

It's not as though we're putting the windows through in Whitehall, as in 1831 (Reform Bill), 1855 (against closing pubs on Sundays) and on other occasions.

When did the police turn from being a people's Watch to fight crime as normally understood, to a standing army whose purpose is to suppress the people?

A crisis of democracy, not of capitalism

One of the features of the present crisis is that it is not so much financial as political. Vast bailouts of greedy and destructive banks lead Americans to ask, who is running the country, and for whose benefit? Mish and others are turning from financial commentators to pro-democracy activists.

Shall "Government of the people, by the people and for the people" perish from the earth? The lazy, defeatist cynics of the UK fail to understand how Lincoln's words still burn brightly in many Americans' hearts. It's why they are so quick to attack their politicians as liars and shysters, wheras we merely expect them to be that anyway. Their idealism shames us.