Focus groups and voter disaffection

In Stroud today, we passed a Labour Party election poster for David Drew:

"Local, Trustworthy, Hardworking."

(on the website: "local, honest and public-spirited.")

This may well be true of Mr Drew. But it also has the scent of focus groups and marketing, and sadly it reveals that they know the strong public impressions about MPs (not all, but of all main parties) that they have to address, namely:

• Parachuted in by Head Office as a reward for being loyal party bunnies
• Shifty, weaselly, expense-claiming, domicile-flipping double-talkers
• Lazy b*st*rds who attend Parliament for some small proportion of the average 150 days a year it's been open since 2010, delegate much of their constituency duties to local staff and focus on writing books, acquiring directorships and planning how to cash in their influence and notoriety post-public service

There's a lot of repair work to be done.


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How Britain Is Governed

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/60641/cabinet-manual.pdf

Via a link from Full Fact, here is the 2011 Cabinet Manual, the first (it seems) comprehensive overview of how we are governed.

Eurosceptics can read Chapter 9 and fulminate; those questioning the legality of surrender of sovereignty might be interested to see the comment on judicial review:

"Judicial review

"6.10   Ministers’ decisions, and the process by which they exercise (or fail to exercise) their powers, can be reviewed by the High Court, although the courts will usually hesitate to intervene in cases where they accept that, because of the subject matter (entering into treaties, the defence of the
realm, the grant of honours, etc.), the decision-maker is better qualified than the courts to make a judgment."

It also gives links (with at least one typo - letter "j" is sometimes given for "i" in this online version) to other documents, including how the Government is prepared to respond to emergencies.

The Cabinet Manual was commissioned by Gordon Brown. Maybe this is one of his best legacies.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/60641/cabinet-manual.pdf

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By the roots: the Establishment paedophile network

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1298/1006585645_8a4b207774.jpg

 

This is a British MP writing in a major, Conservative-leaning newspaper:

 

"Slowly but surely, though, a sober realisation has dawned upon the political classes that we’re looking at a truly monumental cover up.

 

"The revelations aired on Newsnight this week that in 1981 Cyril Smith was released from a police station hours after he had been arrested at a sex party with teenage boys is simply another chapter in this horrifying story.

 

"We now know that Smith walked free from police stations all over the country after orders were made from on high to release him. He was first investigated by police in the Fifties, and was still being investigated by police as late as 1999.

 

"The same pattern of events unfolds in almost every operation. Police are told to hand over all evidence, files are destroyed and officers are warned never to speak about Smith again, with the added threat of being prosecuted under the Official Secrets Act...

"... why was he allowed to get away with it for so long? Why would a Liberal MP with no prospect of ever holding high office be given so much protection? Why was he given a pass to do as he pleased and prey on innocent boys all over the country?...

"I now believe that this is because a paedophile network - perhaps involving prominent politicians and policemen - had been established, and, if charged, Cyril could have blown it wide open."

For me, the killer quote is the penultimate paragraph above: why such impunity for a minor political figure?

The whole thing must be torn out by the roots, even if it takes a lot else with it. One evil joins hands with all its fellows; all of it must go.


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Those police raids

Exaro reports that addresses of the late Lord Brittan and a retired armed forces supremo have been raided as part of an ongoing widespread investigation into alleged child abuse.

How did this story come out - and why?

I cannot see how anyone could hope to find the slightest scrap of incriminating home-stored evidence, even had there been any before, after the years-long hoo-ha on this subject. Nobody but the deepest-dyed fool would leave tracks uncovered about such serious matters, having heard the hunters' trumpets from such a great distance. Think of the millions of deleted emails and the missing computers in the News Of The World phone-hacking imbroglio: even the innocent might wish to destroy relevant materials, merely to forestall the inconvenience of prolonged investigation and interrogation.

Unless there is something else - something very credible - to go on, these people, dead or retired, must be presumed entirely innocent and not arraigned in the loathsome "court of public opinion", much less the court of wild speculation. Otherwise, no-one is safe from false accusations prompted by malice or greed. Even in the case of Jimmy Savile, far more has been alleged than proved, and the public purse is being prepared for a massive gold rush.

And if, on the other hand, boots-in-the-drawing-room visits were to be conducted on serving politicians and other still-nationally-important people, I would assume that the motive would be either (a) punishment by embarrassment, because there would be nothing left to find, or (b) a highly risky form of show exoneration, with the potential for expensive and career-destroying blowback.

As it is, the present approach looks like a distraction exercise, the implications of which make the general stink fouler. Let there be a trawl through government archives - such as can be effected against Sir Humphreyite defences of " national security" etc - and statements and evidence gathered from alleged victims and witnesses. That's all we're going to have, and in many cases it won't be enough to come to court with. But these Witchfinder-General taran-tara rides through private property are worse than useless.


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False flags?

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"Interesting. Gosh." Catherine Ashton and the alleged "false flag" attack on Ukraine.

I said something about this almost a year ago and - "gosh" - the video of the above telcon I embedded has has the associated Youtube account terminated - "interesting".

Well. the issue has come up again on Washington's blog - at the same time that a similar theory is circulating about this week's murder of Boris Nemtsov.

And who is this talking?

"If the United States has its way they’ll be having a war in Europe between the Europeans and the Russians... countries that are buying gold are preparing for war. That has always been one of the signs of coming war... I think that this preparation of buying gold indicates clearly that there is going to be a big disagreement, eventually, between the Russians and the Chinese, and that disagreement might signify a war. And nobody wants to have the enemy’s currency as your currency and your reserves when you’re in a war. You want something that is independent of your enemy, right? And that can only be gold. So this purchase of gold by Russia and China, and other countries, indicates that there is growing doubts about the universality of the dollar. And the universal appreciation of the dollar as currency is now in doubt. That’s why their countries are buying gold, because they see that the dollar is too unstable and it’s not a firm enough basis in case of a crisis. Their countries want to have something on which they can rely on their own resources and that means they must have their reserves of gold."

Why, it's billionaire Hugo Salinas Price.

"Byee!" Dontcha just love her? We're in safe hands, I'm sure.


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Bethnal Green teen terror brides: Cameron acts

As usual, Mr Cameron has a two-pronged solution:

a) He has had an emotion at it ("deeply concerning").

b) It is everybody's responsibility to deal with it ("We all have a role to play in stopping people from having their minds poisoned by this appalling death cult").

Job done!




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David Malone, TTIP, TISA and Russian dolls

http://www.theguardian.com/membership/2015/feb/18/guardian-live-what-is-ttip-and-how-does-it-affect-us

Practical example: Raytheon.


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Don't forget to vote on May 7th!

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Balls the prophet

The Mail says Ed Balls predicted the crash in 2007, which is why he urged Brown to hold a snap election.

Out of 20,000 professional economists, Oz econ academic Steve Keen reckons only some 20 saw it coming. EB has an econ-academic background; so has his brother Andrew, who joined bond investment giant Pimco in 2006. Did the latter have interesting conversations with the former in 2007?

Clearly we need Balls' insight - as long as his concern is not limited to party success. What is he predicting now, I wonder?


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It's not UKIP the Pub Landlord is standing against

Here is an extract from Wikipedia's page on the South Thanet constituency:

General Election 2010: South Thanet[16]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Laura Sandys	22,043	48.0	+6.8
	Labour	Stephen Ladyman	14,426	31.4	−8.1
	Liberal Democrat	Peter Bucklitsch	6,935	15.1	+2.9
	UKIP	Trevor Shonk	2,529	5.5	+0.7
Majority			7,617	16.6
Turnout			45,933	65.3	0.2
	Conservative gain from Labour		Swing	+7.4

Elections in the 2000s[edit]

General Election 2005: South Thanet
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Stephen Ladyman	16,660	40.4	-5.3
	Conservative	Mark MacGregor	15,996	38.8	-2.3
	Liberal Democrat	Guy Voizey	5,431	13.2	+3.8
	UKIP	Nigel Farage	2,079	5.0	+3.7
	Green	Howard Green	888	2.2	+2.2
	Independent	Maude Kinsella	188	0.5	+0.5
Majority			664	1.6
Turnout			41,242	65	1.1
	Labour hold		Swing	-1.5

The idea that UKIP seriously hope to win there, is risible. UKIP's highest poll in 2010 (N. Farage, 17.4%) was in Buckingham, against John Bercow; the next highest was Robert Brown's 8.3% in Cambridgeshire North West. As we have seen already, UKIP's best chance of gaining seats is to win over disenchanted sitting MPs.

Al Murray may claim to be standing against Nigel Farage but all he is likely to do is disrupt the competition at the top in this Con-Lab swing seat - and, more importantly, disrupt the minorities' campaigns there generally with his additional noises off.

And get a lot of attention with his joke "Free UK Party" (FUKP, get it? I get it daily, teaching excluded primary children. What a wag.)

He is not standing for any party, not even the Labour Party for which he is an activist - or was, until this possibly Labour-vote-dividing stunt.

He is standing for himself.


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Baga massacre: elimination of democracy in northern Nigeria?

While Western citizens are mesmerized by the awful killings in Paris, a far worse atrocity has taken place in Baga, northern Nigeria, where Boko Haram slaughtered residents indiscriminately.

It isn't the first time, Here is what the BBC had to say back in May 2014:

"Nigeria's militant Islamist group Boko Haram - which has caused havoc in Africa's most populous country through a wave of bombings, assassinations and now abductions - is fighting to overthrow the government and create an Islamic state.

"Its followers are said to be influenced by the Koranic phrase which says: "Anyone who is not governed by what Allah has revealed is among the transgressors".

"Boko Haram promotes a version of Islam which makes it "haram", or forbidden, for Muslims to take part in any political or social activity associated with Western society.

"This includes voting in elections, wearing shirts and trousers or receiving a secular education.

"Boko Haram regards the Nigerian state as being run by non-believers, even when the country had a Muslim president."

A 2011 article from GeoCurrents here gives more background on the ethnic and religious differences that have split Nigeria.

(source)

For me, this isn't about religion. It's about Puritans, the Christian variety of which set England on fire in the seventeenth century Civil War. And power: the Protestants' fear of losing their post-monastic-destruction possessions (and more) led to the "baby in the warming pan" lie and the overthrow of James II in the "Glorious Revolution" (itself the inspiration for more and bloodier revolutions elsewhere.)

Pseudo-sentimental posturing by world politicians in Paris - apparently in a separate location from the one to which they called up the crowds - won't stop it; nor will increased blanket prurient spying on all of us. If we want security, we need a secular state that firmly enforces rules of behaviour and demeanour. All groups need to keep their heads down.

But when things get doctrinal, on what solid rock does liberalism stand? And even if there is one, does our current political and economic leadership stand on it?


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The "40% rule" would wipe out the Labour Party

It is a remarkable fact that Conservative constituencies are more solidly so than any other party. Based on the 2010 General Election results, here is what the House of Commons would look like if only those Members were admitted who gained 40% or more of the votes of all the registered electors in their constituency (not simply all those who actually cast their vote):

Constituency Name	Region	Party
Daventry	East Midlands	CON
Northamptonshire South	East Midlands	CON
Brentwood & Ongar	Eastern	CON
Hitchin & Harpenden	Eastern	CON
Maldon	Eastern	CON
Norfolk North	Eastern	LIB DEM
Beckenham	London	CON
Orpington	London	CON
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner	London	CON
Twickenham	London	LIB DEM
Westmorland & Lonsdale	North West	LIB DEM
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath	Scotland	LAB
Arundel & South Downs	South East	CON
Beaconsfield	South East	CON
Chesham & Amersham	South East	CON
Esher & Walton	South East	CON
Hampshire East	South East	CON
Hampshire North East	South East	CON
Hampshire North West	South East	CON
Henley	South East	CON
Maidenhead	South East	CON
Meon Valley	South East	CON
Mole Valley	South East	CON
New Forest West	South East	CON
Newbury	South East	CON
Sevenoaks	South East	CON
Surrey East	South East	CON
Surrey Heath	South East	CON
Surrey South West	South East	CON
Tonbridge & Malling	South East	CON
Wealden	South East	CON
Windsor	South East	CON
Witney	South East	CON
Christchurch	South West	CON
Kenilworth & Southam	West Midlands	CON
Richmond (Yorks)	Yorkshire and the Humber	CON

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Conservative crackdown on MPs "will end right to represent people"

PM David Cameron plans to end the disruption caused by Her Majesty's Government in many Middle Eastern countries, a spokesman said today.

"We acknowledge that is inconsistent to impose a rule on unions requiring 40% of members to approve a strike action, without imposing the same on candidates for Parliamentary seats, and on political parties generally.

"We are aware that no party garnered 40% or more of votes cast in the 2010 General Election, and of course the results were much lower in relation to the number of registered electors, 35% of whom did not vote at all.

"The picture is scarcely better within individual constituencies. True, 539 MPs got 40%-plus of votes cast in 2010**, but again to be consistent we must admit that only 36 of them were returned by 40% or more of those who could have voted.*

"Unfortunately, this means that over 600 MPs will have to lose their places.  Having gone that far, really we do not see the need for General Elections at all and in future the UK will be governed by a very small self-appointed rump of  former 'forty percenters' meeting in the upper room of the Westminster Arms. Plus Angela Merkel, obviously.

"The now-redundant Palace of Westminster next door is up for sale and we have already had several expressions of interest from international property developers.

"What's important is to recognise the good news in all this, which is that the Government will no longer feel the need to gain popularity by vainglorious military adventures on the Arab Street. (The spokesman said that for this and other reasons, the new, permanent mini-government would not be styled "the Drones Club".) Cam is already in the process of selling his camo jacket on eBay."

"Best of all from our point of view, we've ditched the Scots*, all bar one and he's like Macavity." (The MP for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath is the Right Honourable Gordon Brown.)

(pic source)

The Not-The-Drones Club:

Constituency Name	Region	Party
Daventry	East Midlands	CON
Northamptonshire South	East Midlands	CON
Brentwood & Ongar	Eastern	CON
Hitchin & Harpenden	Eastern	CON
Maldon	Eastern	CON
Norfolk North	Eastern	LIB DEM
Beckenham	London	CON
Orpington	London	CON
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner	London	CON
Twickenham	London	LIB DEM
Westmorland & Lonsdale	North West	LIB DEM
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath	Scotland	LAB
Arundel & South Downs	South East	CON
Beaconsfield	South East	CON
Chesham & Amersham	South East	CON
Esher & Walton	South East	CON
Hampshire East	South East	CON
Hampshire North East	South East	CON
Hampshire North West	South East	CON
Henley	South East	CON
Maidenhead	South East	CON
Meon Valley	South East	CON
Mole Valley	South East	CON
New Forest West	South East	CON
Newbury	South East	CON
Sevenoaks	South East	CON
Surrey East	South East	CON
Surrey Heath	South East	CON
Surrey South West	South East	CON
Tonbridge & Malling	South East	CON
Wealden	South East	CON
Windsor	South East	CON
Witney	South East	CON
Christchurch	South West	CON
Kenilworth & Southam	West Midlands	CON
Richmond (Yorks)	Yorkshire and the Humber	CON

_____________________________________

* ... not to mention Northern Ireland, the Welsh and Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam). And Ed Miliband (Doncaster North), together with the entire PLP except for Macavity.

** but only 217 of them got 50% or more.


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Lab-Con coalition: you read it here first!

From Peter Hitchens today:

"I have thought for some time that the only establishment solution to a jaundiced and disenchanted electorate is for the two twin parties to combine against the voters in a grand coalition..."

From Broad Oak Magazine, last August:

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One problem, two Floridians, three ways

A few days ago, in the wake of recent controversy over police shootings, Karl Denninger posted a piece on violence and fecklessness in the black community, for which he blames misguided welfare interventions:

"We have spent the entire time since Great Society providing incentives for this behavior and we've gotten a hell of a lot more of it. The blame for this is ours -- specifically yours and mine."

He advocates cutting benefits to make a subsidised layabout lifestyle less comfortable, and one can see a certain logic to it - this kind of argument is also aired in the UK not infrequently.

But six hours away from where Karl lives someone has tried a different approach:

Twenty years ago, the Orlando, Fla. neighborhood of Tangelo Park was a crime-infested place where people were afraid to walk down the street. The graduation rate at the local high school was 25 percent. Having amassed a fortune from his success in the hotel business, Rosen decided Tangelo Park needed some hospitality of its own.

“Hospitality really is appreciating a fellow human being,” Rosen told Gabe Gutierrez in a segment that aired on TODAY Wednesday. “I came to the realization that I really had to now say, ‘Thank you.’’’

Rosen, 73, began his philanthropic efforts by paying for day care for parents in Tangelo Park, a community of about 3,000 people. When those children reached high school, he created a scholarship program in which he offered to pay free tuition to Florida state colleges for any students in the neighborhood.

In the two decades since starting the programs, Rosen has donated nearly $10 million, and the results have been remarkable. The high school graduation rate is now nearly 100 percent, and some property values have quadrupled. The crime rate has been cut in half, according to a study by the University of Central Florida.

"We've given them hope,’’ Rosen said. “We've given these kids hope, and given the families hope. And hope is an amazing thing."

Not that day nurseries are always the answer. Today, Peter Hitchens - scarcely a left-winger - repeats his support for the right of women to stay home to raise their children:

"A significant number of homes – four per cent – lose money by having both parents at work. Many – ten per cent – gain nothing from this arrangement. Yet they still do it. Many more gain so little that it is barely worth the bother. The most amazing statistic of the past year (produced by insurance company Aviva) shows that thousands of mothers who go out to work are, in effect, working for nothing. The cost of day orphanages, travel and other work expenses cancels out everything they earn. Many more barely make a profit on the arrangement. One in four families has a parent who brings home less than £100 a month after all the costs of work have been met."

There's too much polarisation in politics. It seems that either the police are murderous racists or infallible heroes who must be supported no matter what they do; either we throw money at the poor or penny-pinch them into work, either we raise the minimum wage or abolish it (we discussed this with Don Boudreaux of George Mason University* a few years ago)... And of course, as Denninger observes, there is the politician making himself seemingly indispensable on either side.

Yet Harris Rosen doesn't fit the false dichotomies. What he did was an act of private charity, practical help instead of either blaming or faux-championing the poor. And it worked.

What a shame if politicians became redundant; if their catastrophic broad-brush solutions, infested by office boxwallahs and lawyers, were replaced by intelligently targeted initiatives; if we had a fair society instead of a Great one.
_______________________________

* A university supported by the somewhat controversial billionaire Koch Brothers.


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