What are we to do?
We in the UK have certainly done quite a lot. Governments of
both colours have watched as our manufacturing industry shrivelled while the production
was moved abroad. The service sector was already 69% of the economy in 1990,
but grew further to 80% by 2018; manufacturing output over the same period fell
from 17.3% to 9.9%. https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01942/SN01942.pdf
I do not think we are going to maintain an advanced economy
and generous welfare state by taking in each other’s washing; but then, I’m not
an economist, unlike the 20,000 professionals who failed to foresee the Global
Economic Crisis.
China, on the other hand, has seen its industrial production
grow by an average 11.2% per annum since 1995 https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/industrial-production-index-growth
and they are not going to stop. Their vast country has a long history of collapse
and fragmentation and like a fox with its tail on fire, they have to keep
running. We must assume that they do not wish to pollute the air and build up
CO2 for the hell of it, but the need for momentum leaves them little choice;
the coal-fired power stations will continue to be built apace. https://e360.yale.edu/features/despite-pledges-to-cut-emissions-china-goes-on-a-coal-spree
Transition to less polluting and more sustainable forms of
energy production are worthy objectives, but it is obvious there will be huge
costs involved in the changeover; costs that a steadily weakening economy like
ours may not be able to bear.
We also need to look at physical reality instead of the
fictions of GDP and the magic money forest that is papering over the
irrationality of our privileged normal life. A 2015 article in Forbes by energy
writer James Conca analysed Energy Returned On Investment, or EROI (alternatively,
Energy Returned on Energy Invested – EROEI). https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2015/02/11/eroi-a-tool-to-predict-the-best-energy-mix/
This looks at how much energy it takes to make a unit of energy – a difficult
calculation, because you have to work out everything involved, from soup to
nuts. Conca find the returns on coal and gas are great (though they have a limited future);
solar, biomass and wind not so much, especially when you factor in the cost of energy
storage. Oh, for the days when oil simply gushed out of the ground !
Doubtless technological improvements will raise the EROI,
but even then it does not look as though renewables – even if they could satisfy
all our energy needs – can come close to competing with nuclear power (with its
dangers) or hydroelectric (for countries with lots of mountains and water.)
It looks as though all our Western agonizing over energy is
not going to stop excess global CO2 emissions anytime soon – assuming that
humans are the major factor in this, rather than, say, vulcanism.
We seem to have forgotten the lesson of King Canute: we can’t
stop the tide coming in, but we can move further inland. That is, instead of
trying to ‘save the world’ (what godlike arrogance!) we should think how best
to save ourselves. If sea levels are going to rise, why are we still allowing
property developers to build on flood plains? If we are going to get longer
spells of hot weather, why are we allowing our population to grow when our freshwater
supplies are limited? If our crop production is affected by heat, or even by
cold if Europe cools instead – a possibility, if the Arctic Ocean’s Beaufort
Gyre collapses https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-a-wayward-arctic-current-could-cool-the-climate-in-europe
- was it a good idea for the UK’s strategic food stockpile to have been
scrapped in 1995? https://www.subbrit.org.uk/features/strategic-food-stockpile/
In short, why are we not working urgently, long and hard on
contingency plans and structural changes to reduce our vulnerability to shocks
in the logistical systems that supply us with the essentials of life?
3 comments:
"That is, instead of trying to ‘save the world’ (what godlike arrogance!) we should think how best to save ourselves."
What if moving "inland" only staves off the inevitable for a time? How is that godlike arrogance? Was the French resistance pointless?
We're not going to stop China. We need to make plans for our own safety. It's not 'inevitable' if we act.
Yes our CO2 emissions are down to 1% of world emissions, so what difference will the UK make to the world at zero emissions, it is not worth the financial bankruptcy that our politicians and experts are forcing on us. Cash would be better spent on building reservoirs to cater for the huge increase in population that has happened over the last 20 years or more. Financial assistance for those working from home to reduce traffic, pollution, time wasted commuting which would allow an even spread across the country of new house builds as proximity to the workplace is less important, etc
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