Thursday, April 23, 2015

EU: we're stuffed

"David Cameron has said he would be “delighted” to stage an early referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU, if the Conservatives get voted into power in the general election next May." - The Independent

"... if the Conservatives get voted into power": read carefully. A Conservative majority in Parliament is simply not in prospect. The vote of "Eurosceptics" (i.e. believers in democracy) is being bought with the political equivalent of Toytown money.

The only way we would get a referendum is through cooperation between certain parties. And that isn't going to happen either.

A couple of days ago a comment here by Paddington directed us to the Shapley–Shubik power index, an analysis of how votes relate to the power to carry or block motions. In the footnotes of the Wiki article linked above, there is a site that offers different ways to calculate that power.

Here's one program: ipdirect. And here are the results using Electoral Calculus' forecast of Parliamentary parties post-May 7th:

A combination of two players out of Con/Lab/SNP gets a score of 1.0, i.e. complete power. Basically, whoever the SNP sides with.

So Labour (no EU referendum) plus SNP (no EU referendum); or Conservative ("Didn't really promise a referendum, did I? You should learn to read") plus SNP (no EU referendum).

And in any case, Ms Sturgeon has sworn not to deal with the Conservatives.

And in any any case, the puzzled and gullible electorate would probably vote to stay in (I would say, join, legally speaking), according to "EU Referendum", who himself would rather trust the Conservatives than deal with nasty Mr Farage.

In any any any case, the campaign would be so skewed and misreported that, just as in 1975, the people wouldn't have a clue what they were voting for.

We're stuffed.


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Wolfie said...

Just about every working-class person I know starts screaming "racists, racists!" at the very mention of UKIP.

The mass indoctrination has worked wonders and they will vote for their own destruction.

I fear this is the last election when we will be able to reclaim our future without bloodshed.

Another five years and another three million immigrants will be voting for the Socialist oligarchy as the boomers die off. We will lose our voices for ever.

James Higham said...

Yep, need to keep those Boomers alive.

A K Haart said...

Even if we have a referendum, I can't see it producing a vote for leaving the EU. Money, propaganda and outright lies are likely to sway the vote for staying in.

I can't see voters having the necessary political courage.

Michael said...

I still remember the election when Major got back in after all the 'polls' got it completely wrong!

If I ever get asked, I'd always tell them the opposite, and so do many more people!